Post random maps here

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Rubio Packs it After New Hampshire

I was messing around with excel last week assuming that Rubio dropped out after NH and Carson dropped after SC. I had similar results. Any idea about Puerto Rico?

[Kingpoleon]

When I have Rubio drop out after NH, with most of his Tea Partiers going Cruz and the rest to Kasich, I get this map:

Pretty close three-way race. IMO, Kasich and Trump would dominate the Rules Committee, but Kasich and Cruz have the most experienced infrastructure. Trump and Cruz narrowly lead in delegates, in that order.

[NHI]

(I) Donald Trump/Mike Huckabee: 362 (31.5%)

(D) Barack Obama/Mark Warner: 111 (27.1%)

(G) Bernie Sanders/Jill Stein: 51 (20.4%)

(R) Michelle Bachmann/Thad McCotter: 11 (19.9%)

[This account no longer in use.]

How would Bachmann have won Nebraska without winning a single CD?

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

How would Bachmann have won Nebraska without winning a single CD?

I'm assuming all other candidates had the most votes in each district, but Bachmann was the highest-voted candidate overall, in spite of placing a close second in all three districts. If not, then I don't know.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

How would Bachmann have won Nebraska without winning a single CD?

It's possible, seeing as all three CDs are shaded at 30%. I'm guessing the results looked something like this:

CD1   33% D, 32% R, 20% I, 15% G
CD2   20% D, 32% R, 15% I, 33% G
CD3   18% D, 32% R, 33% I, 17% G
TOT    24% D, 32% R, 23% I, 22% G

[mencken]

Rubio Packs it After New Hampshire

I was messing around with excel last week assuming that Rubio dropped out after NH and Carson dropped after SC. I had similar results. Any idea about Puerto Rico?

Puerto Rico is a mystery, maybe the establishment would line up behind Kasich?

I figured Carson would continue his IRL role as a Trump stalking horse regardless of what Rubio decided to do. Interestingly, I have Cruz coming out of Super Tuesday with a ~80 delegate lead over Trump, which he pretty much maintains going into Super Tuesday II. Theoretically, Trump would then proceed to take a ~40 delegate lead. Although Trump probably benefited from a bandwagon effect, I doubt that would have been enough to flip Illinois, and certainly not Arizona, Florida, or any Northeastern states.

[NHI]

How would Bachmann have won Nebraska without winning a single CD?

It's possible, seeing as all three CDs are shaded at 30%. I'm guessing the results looked something like this:

CD1   33% D, 32% R, 20% I, 15% G
CD2   20% D, 32% R, 15% I, 33% G
CD3   18% D, 32% R, 33% I, 17% G
TOT    24% D, 32% R, 23% I, 22% G

Bingo

[NHI]

2012: The Missed Opportunity

Enter: Christie, The Savior

Chris Christie: 9,420,001 (49.70%)

Michelle Bachmann: 4,368,111 (23.04%)

Newt Gingrich: 2,981,511 (15.73%)

Ron Paul: 2,042,201 (10.77%)

Chris Christie/Newt Gingrich: 291 (65,510,411)

Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 247 (62,491,000)

The Republican Fracturing

Chris Christie: 11,401,401 (52.01%) 1,061 (176 Short of Nomination)

Ted Cruz: 9,865,999 (47.39%) 988 (249 Short of Nomination)

*** Chris Christie is nominated at a Brokered Convention

Hillary Clinton/Sherrod Brown: 368 (70,761,402)

Chris Christie/Newt Gingrich: (64,024,501)

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Maps for this post.
May 5, 1979: What Walt Couldn't Get
President Carter is assassinated by Raymond Lee Harvey. Walter Mondale ascends and picks John Glenn as a Vice Presidential nominee in July.
1980: Too Close for Comfort

Fmr. Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / Fmr. Director George Bush (R-TX) - 309
President Walter Mondale (D-MN) / Vice President John Glenn (D-OH) - 221
Representative John Anderson (I-IL) / Fmr. Governor Patrick Lucey (I-WI) - 8
Riding on a better campaign and the death of Carter, Mondale managed to make the 1980 race much more competitive
November 22, 1983: Five Fewer Years
President Reagan is assassinated two years after OTL's attempt by John Hinckley, Jr. George Bush ascends, picking Senator Paul Laxalt as VP.
1984: Now We're Cooking With Fire

President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Paul Laxalt (R-NV) - 486
Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) / Senator Gary Hart (D-CO) - 52
Bush had relentless attacks on Kennedy, and surprisingly, only a few were about Chappaquiddick.
1988: Clinton Now

Governor Bill Clinton (D-AR) / Senator Albert Bustamante (D-TX) - 313
Vice President Paul Laxalt (R-NV) / Senator Jesse Helms (R-NC) - 190
Fmr. Senator Eugene McCarthy (I-MN) / Fmr. Senator George McGovern (I-SD) - 35
Don't ask why McCarthy got EVs. I don't know either.
1992: In the Eye of a Political Hurricane

President Bill Clinton (D-AR) / Vice President Albert Bustamante (D-TX) - 521
Senator Jesse Helms (R-NC) / Patrick Buchanan (R-VA) - 17
October 10, 1993: You Killed Headless Bustamante
Vice President Bustamante resigns due to a scandal. President Clinton nominates Al Gore for the position.
August 9, 1994: Whitewater Spilled
President Clinton resigns due to a scandal. Al Gore nominates Mario Cuomo as Vice President.
1996: Why does the Electoral College hate me?

Senator Bob Dole (R-KS) / Secretary Jack Kemp (R-NY) - 297
President Al Gore (D-TN) / Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND) - 240
Gore wins the popular vote, but Dole wins the Electoral College. Faithless elector in Washington, D.C. votes for Wellstone/Conrad.
(To be continued)

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Continued from last post.
2000: Well-come to the White House

Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MN) / Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) - 489
President Bob Dole (R-KS) / Vice President Jack Kemp (R-NY) - 49
The economy inflates in 2000, spelling doom for the Dole administration. Outspoken liberal and 1996 candidate Paul Wellstone runs again, and wins.
2004: Get 'Stoned

President Paul Wellstone (D-MN) / Vice President Jack Reed (D-RI) - 525
Fmr. Vice President Jack Kemp (R-NY) / Representative Jennifer Dunn (R-WA) - 13
Although the economy collapsed in 2002, it bounced back by 2004, solidifying Paul Wellstone for a second term.
2008: A Comfortable Victory

Vice President Jack Reed (D-RI) / Representative Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) - 428
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) - 109
Jack Reed won handily against Mitt Romney. The recession doesn't hit until 2010. A faithless elector votes for Cornyn/Romney in WV.
2012: Yet Another Return to Normalcy

Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) / Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) - 335
President Jack Reed (D-RI) / Vice President Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) - 203
Collins's Moderate Hero stances win her the election.
2016: All in for Collins

President Susan Collins (R-ME) / Vice President Lindsey Graham (R-SC) - 376
Fmr. Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND) / Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) - 162
Collins defeated Conrad decisively.
2020: Florida Fails (to vote for Graham)

Fmr. Governor Martin O'Malley (D-MD) / Representative Joe Kennedy III (D-MA) - 271
Vice President Lindsey Graham (R-SC) / Governor Bruce Poliquin (R-ME) - 267
As per 1996, Graham wins PV, O'Malley wins EV.
(end)

[bagelman]

(long post)

I like it! The analogues are very fitting.

 I could see Donald Trump disrupting things in 2012 though, running as a populist independent alternative. Many of his voters may be from the long-orhpaned conservative wing of the Democratic parties, which may cause future historians to say that President Reed could have won another term without him.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

(long post)

I like it! The analogues are very fitting.

 I could see Donald Trump disrupting things in 2012 though, running as a populist independent alternative. Many of his voters may be from the long-orhpaned conservative wing of the Democratic parties, which may cause future historians to say that President Reed could have won another term without him.

Now that I think about it, I could see him doing a Perot-style thing in '12 and '16.
EDIT: I could also see Bernie threatening a third-party challenge to the left of Conrad if he didn't pick a liberal enough VP, much like how Buchanan threatened to run third-party to the right of Dole if his VP was pro-choice.

[bagelman]

2024: Beginnings of a realignment

J. Castro took up the mantle for the Democratic nomination after President and wins because of thin margins in Florida and Texas.

Above is a typical prediction made in 2024. Texas and Pennsylvania would be surprises for this forecaster. Despite leaning Texas towards the GOP, the Republicans are still underestimated in this map.

2028: Realignment disguised as landslide.

President Castro's bulging of the economy would be legendary after the recession of 2027, and loses to a charismatic Republican from Kentucky holding evolved Trump-like positions of moderate economics and nationalism. 

2028 pre-election map:

An historic landslide was already projected for the Republican party, and yet predictions still managed to  underestimate them somewhat. Most kept MD and NY as Strong Dem if not Safe Dem with OR, WA, NJ, RI, CT, MA as all winnable for the Democrats. The above map showed the most accurate prediction with NV, MD, and NY as the swing states.

-------

2036: Realignment complete

Prediction map for general election:

After being left in the wilderness for twenty years, a successful Republican president put them back in for another eight. The Democrats can prevent a third term of Republican control of the White House, but they face an uphill battle as they need to win the majority of the swing states. Recent polls show them winning in Louisiana and Rhode Island but they'll need those two + FL + two out of three of the remaining swing states, as well as GA+WA which are already leaning towards them, in order to win in 2036.

[mencken]

What Could Have Been

Paul vs Christie vs Rubio

[Mike Thick]

What Could Have Been

Paul vs Christie vs Rubio

If only, if only...

[Clark Kent]

A counterpart to the "Democrats Split" world:

1980:

Democratic: Pres. Jimmy Carter (GA)/VP Walter Mondale (MN) - 40.51%, 312 EVs
Republican: frm. Gov. Ronald Reagan (CA)/frm. CIA Dir. George Bush (TX) - 38.04%, 204 EVs
National Union: Rep. John B. Anderson (IL)/frm. Gov. Patrick Lucey (WI) - 19.82%, 17 EVs

[Slow Learner]

Trump has an even easier victory.

[mencken]

Rick Perry Lays Off the Pain Meds

[rpryor03]

Mr. Steve Rogers/Mr. Samuel Wilson (Republican) - 357 EV
Dr. Tony Stark/Mr. James Rhodes (Democrat) - 178 EV
Mr. Wade Wilson/Mr. "Peter Nicholas" (Independent) - 3 EV

[msnmllr]

Mr. Steve Rogers/Mr. Samuel Wilson (Republican) - 357 EV
Dr. Tony Stark/Mr. James Rhodes (Democrat) - 178 EV
Mr. Wade Wilson/Mr. "Peter Nicholas" (Independent) - 3 EV
Umm, Wade Wilson is from Regina, Saskatchewan. It rhymes with fun though

[Clark Kent]

Republican: Ronald Reagan (CA)/George H.W. Bush (TX) - 44.67%, 416 EVs
Democratic: Hubert H. Humphrey (MN)/Edmund Muskie (ME) - 37.60%, 94 EVs
American Independent: George Wallace (AL)/Curtis LeMay (CA) - 11.91%, 28 EVs
Independent: John B. Anderson (IL)/Patrick Lucey (WI) - 5.82%, 0 EVs

[Clark Kent]

With votes equalized:

Independent: John B. Anderson (IL)/Patrick Lucey (WI) - 25.00%, 205 EVs
American Independent: George Wallace (AL)/Curtis LeMay (CA) - 25.00%, 145 EVs
Democratic: Hubert H. Humphrey (MN)/Edmund Muskie (ME) - 25.00%, 110 EVs
Republican: Ronald Reagan (CA)/George H.W. Bush (TX) - 25.00%, 78 EVs

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Cheeseburger Freedom Man (D-AL) / Former President Bill Clinton (D-AR) - 277
Donald Trump (R-NY) / Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) - 261

[This account no longer in use.]

See? Trump CAN put the Northeast in play!