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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4625 on: June 15, 2015, 10:20:55 PM »

2012 if Colorado voted for an independent candidate:


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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4626 on: June 17, 2015, 07:30:46 PM »


√ Rice/Ryan: 270 (49.5%)
Obama/Biden: 268 (48.9%)
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Mr. Smith
MormDem
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« Reply #4627 on: June 18, 2015, 02:00:51 AM »

1848 if Zachary Taylor takes 5% more of the pv from Cass



1844 if Polk took 5% more:



And finally, 1840 if Van Buren lost by another 5%:

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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4628 on: June 20, 2015, 07:07:55 PM »

√ Margaret Chase Smith/William Scranton: 272 (49.6%)
John F. Kennedy/Lyndon Johnson: 266 (49.7%)

√ Lyndon Johnson/Edmund Muskie: 396 (48.9%)
Margaret Chase Smith/William Scranton: 95 (38.2%)
George Wallace/Curtis LeMay: 47 (11.9%)

√ Lyndon Johnson/Edmund Muskie: 363 (53.6%)
Barry Goldwater/Mark Hatfield: 175 (45.8%)

√ George Bush/Gerald Ford: 327 (52.2%)
Edmund Muskie/Jimmy Carter: 211 (47.0%)

√ George Bush/Gerald Ford: 431 (57.9%)
Jimmy Carter/George McGovern: 107 (41.8%)
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VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #4629 on: June 20, 2015, 10:58:09 PM »



Partido de Justicia Y Patrimonia
With a support base in area of the US owned by Mexico until the great unification, this Catholic based party supports Catholic Social Teaching, but is increasingly distrustful of the Eastern-based government.

Parti Du Peuple
This agrarian classical liberal party supports a more decentralized and locally based government, which they believe will benefit struggling Midwestern communities.

 Southern Party
The Southern Party is especially socially conservative, with some calling it xenophobic and extremist. Moreover, this party supports a very laissez faire style of economics.

Federal Party
The Federal Party is deeply rooted in a long English aristocratic tradition. They advocate for increased globalization and more trade overseas, along with center right social policies.

Country Party
This small Northeastern party is a populist agrarian party dedicated to promoting a farm based form of life.
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VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #4630 on: June 21, 2015, 05:05:55 PM »



Warner/Nunn vs Palin/Tacredo

457-81
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VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #4631 on: June 21, 2015, 09:49:11 PM »

BREAKING: Morry Taylor wins 2000 Reform Party nomination
Morry Taylor vs Pat Buchanan vs Ralph Nader vs Donald Trump vs John Anderson

After a heated primary season during which many worried that the Reform party, divided among various faultlines, would fall to shambles, businessman Morry Taylor eked out a close win. Taylor occupied a distinct niche in the party, securing Perot's endorsement early on. His policies reflected a bridge across many of the divides in the party. Finishing in second was conservative commentator Pat Buchanan. Buchanan's firey populist rhetoric won him high levels of support in the socially conservative South and Midwest, but was viewed by many voters outside these states as xenophobic and divisive. Third place went to consumer advocate Ralph Nader, who ran from the left wing of the party. He picked up support from more liberal Reform voters, pledging to select physicist John Hagelin as his VP if nominated. However, his inability to fundraise and attract support of the Reform mainstream harmed his campaign. Donald Trump came in fourth, to his disappointment. The billionaire's self funded campaign ran into numerous stumbles, from scandals involving misapportionment of funds and failed ventures to major gaffes. He never really got off the ground, but did pick up some support in wealthy suburbs. In last place was former presidential candidate John Anderson. Anderson's campaign was centrist on social issues and leaned centre left on the economy. While his ideas may have been palatable to voters his lack of energy and funding doomed his efforts. Some pundits guessed that he only ever entered the race to be a potential VP.

At the convention post-primary, Morry Taylor selected John Anderson as his VP to balance the ticket and add some experience.

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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4632 on: June 22, 2015, 07:16:34 AM »

√ John Kerry/John Edwards: 272 (48.32%)
George W. Bush/Dick Cheney: 266 (50.68%)

√ John McCain/Tim Pawlenty: 349 (52.1%)
John Kerry/John Edwards: 189 (45.4%)

√ John McCain/Tim Pawlenty: 281 (50.2%)
Hillary Clinton/Tom Vilsack: 257 (48.6%)

√ Tim Pawlenty/John Kasich: 274 (49.5%)
Tim Kaine/Barack Obama: 264 (49.4%)
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VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #4633 on: June 22, 2015, 07:06:50 PM »

1972: Battle Against the Establishment


George McGovern (D-SD)/Ted Kennedy (D-MA)-286
George Wallace (AIP-AL)/John Schmitz (AIP-CA)-135
Richard Nixon (R-CA)/George Romney (R-MI)-117

Nixon's Situation: Spiro Agnew steps down after allegations of corruption, leaving Nixon to hurriedly nominate George Romney as VP mid-campaign. However, by then, the tickets reputation had suffered severe damage. Moreover, race riots rock American streets, and Nixon, fatigued and beleaguered, stumbles on the issue, kicking the can down the road.

McGovern's Situation: George McGovern hits a nerve with his anti-war messaging and also successfully portrays Nixon as a member of the 'Old Politics' clique. He never goes through the Eagleton affair and is able to reunite the party at the convention, convincing Ted Kennedy to join the ticket.

Wallace's Situation: Exploding racial tensions and Nixon's failure to resolve them give Wallace fodder for an identity politics campaign. He focuses on 'law and order', pandering to segregationist sentiment in the South and drawing social conservatives and blue collar whites in Northern states.
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4634 on: June 24, 2015, 07:40:43 AM »

√ Gov. Ronald Reagan/Sen. Winston Proutt: 320 (47.7%)
Pres. Lyndon Johnson/Vice Pres. Hubert Humphrey: 191 (42.4%)
Gov. George Wallace/Gen. Curtis LeMay: 27 (9.2%)

√ Sen. Robert F. Kennedy/Gov. John Connally: 289 (48.1%)
Pres. Ronald Reagan/Vice Pres. Winston Proutt: 249 (46.7%)
Rep. John Anderson/Gov. John A. Volpe: 0 (3.8%)

√ Pres. Robert F. Kennedy/Vice Pres. John Connally: 300 (51.3%)
Rep. Gerald Ford/Sen. Edward M. Brooke: 238 (47.6%)

√ Sen. George Bush/Sen. Bob Dole: 294 (50.6%)
Vice Pres. John Connally/Gov. Jimmy Carter: 244 (48.3%)

√ Pres. George Bush/Vice Pres. Bob Dole: 408 (55.1%)
Frm. Vice Pres. Jimmy Carter/Rep. Geraldine Ferraro: 130 (43.9%)

√ Vice Pres. Bob Dole/Gen. Colin Powell: 364 (53.9%)
Sen. Gary Hart/Sen. Walter Mondale: 174 (45.0%)

√ Pres. Bob Dole/Vice Pres. Colin Powell: 314 (52.1%)
Gov. Bill Clinton/Sen. Bill Bradley: 224 (46.9%)

√ Vice Pres. Colin Powell/Sen. John McCain: 308 (51.7%)
Sen. Al Gore/Gov. Ann Richards: 230 (47.2%)

√ Gov. Ann Richards/Sen. Barbara Boxer: 276 (49.5%)
Pres. Colin Powell/Vice Pres. John McCain: 262 (49.6%)

√ Frm. Vice Pres. John McCain/Gov. George W. Bush: 297 (51.0%)
Pres. Ann Richards/Vice Pres. Barbara Boxer: 241 (48.1%)

√ Pres. John McCain/Vice Pres. George W. Bush: 532 (62.3%)
Gov. Howard Dean/Sen. Evan Bayh: 6 (35.8%)

√ Gov. Hillary Clinton/Gov. Andrew Cuomo: 271 (49.5%)
Vice Pres. George W. Bush/Gov. Jon Huntsman: 267 (49.4%)
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #4635 on: July 04, 2015, 04:15:30 PM »
« Edited: July 04, 2015, 05:52:13 PM by PPT Maxwell »

2016 - Clinton beats Walker

A contentious GOP nominating process caused Scott Walker to be nominated at a significant disadvantage. Clinton ran a disasterous general election campaign, losing a large amount of ground to Walker, and by October Walker lead in some polls. His disastrous performance in the 2nd and 3rd debates, however, allowed Clinton to gain ground again, and she won her first term in the White House.



Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 50.4%, 295 EV's
Governor Scott Walker (R-WI)/Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) - 48.3%, 243 EV's

2020 - A Fourth Term of the Democrats

Despite opposition from Republicans, Clinton's first term was largely regarded as a surprising success, with even many Republican officials wondering if she could be beaten. Nevertheless, one of the strong candidates ran anyway - Cory Gardner. Gardner, regarded as a moderate rising star within the party, moved to the center and attempted to appeal to hispanics, an group where Walker did even worse than Mitt Romney with. To an extent his campaign was a success - Gardner came surprisingly close in the general, but he lost to Clinton even with her apathetic debate performances and general illness throughout the campaign.



President Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Vice President Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 49.8%, 278 EV's
Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO)/Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) - 48.6%, 260 EV's

2024 - The Cycle is Broken

Clinton comes close to resigning, but remains in office to fill out her term. But among many in the Washington political class, it is well regarded that Kaine was the most powerful Vice President in history thanks to her diagnosis of breast cancer in December of 2020. Kaine wins the nomination without too much ill, and it looks like he will gain a fifth term for the Democrats. However, an economic crash in early 2024 causes Kaine to collapse in the polling, with U.S. Speaker Paul Ryan, who narrowly survived yet another contentious Republican primary, gaining much in the way of polling. It almost wasn't even a contest - Ryan trounced the uncharismatic vice President Kaine.



Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI)/Senator Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) - 53%, 320 EV's
Vice President Tim Kaine (D-VA)/Governor Tim Ashe (D-VT) - 45%, 218 EV's

2028 - And... we're back

President Ryan implements very unpopular policies to fix the economy, with many Democrats calling him "King Austerity" and "One Term Ryan", and Republicans calling him "The Taxman in Chief" (not witty, I know). Popular California Senator Kamala Harris is regarded as the frontrunner - running twenty points ahead of the incumbent President. Ryan narrowly chips away at her lead, but never gets even close to winning the Presidency again. The first President since H.W. Bush to lose re-election. The only positive is Ryan makes permanent progress in Minnesota and Wisconsin.



Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor Patrick Murphy (D-FL) - 54%, 343 EV's
President Paul Ryan (R-WI)/Vice President Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) - 45%, 195 EV's
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #4636 on: July 05, 2015, 12:56:47 PM »

After competitive primaries, Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton, who selects Tim Kaine as her VP. Republicans nominate Jeb Bush, who selects John Kasich as his VP.

Tired of establishment politics, Scott Walker decides to make an Independent bid, and in an effort of unity, selects Alan Grayson to be his Vice President. SW+AG goes on to win big on Election Day.
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4637 on: July 05, 2015, 07:00:11 PM »

√ Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 304 (50.7%)
Scott Walker/John Kasich: 234 (48.2%)
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #4638 on: July 07, 2015, 01:46:58 AM »


Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / Former CIA Director George H. W. Bush (R-TX): 47.45%; 496 Electoral Votes
President Jimmy Carter (D-GA) / Vice President Walter Mondale (D-MN): 31.09%; 21 Electoral Votes
Congressman John B. Anderson (I-IL) / Former Ambassador Patrick Lucey (I-WI): 19.83%; 21 Electoral Votes
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4639 on: July 07, 2015, 07:54:58 AM »

√ Bloomberg: 386 (45.0%)
Cruz: 139 (31.9%)
Webb: 13 (22.2%)
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Abraham Reagan
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« Reply #4640 on: July 07, 2015, 12:49:20 PM »



This is the electoral map if every non-Hispanic White person voted Republican and every minority voted Democrat.
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darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4641 on: July 07, 2015, 01:19:27 PM »

Ready for Hillary

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DKrol
dkrolga
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« Reply #4642 on: July 07, 2015, 04:11:17 PM »

√ Bloomberg: 386 (45.0%)
Cruz: 139 (31.9%)
Webb: 13 (22.2%)

I could see this for a Sanders v. Cruz v. Bloomberg. Webb is moderate enough that, I think, he could hold several states off from Bloomberg.

Interesting idea though.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4643 on: July 07, 2015, 10:50:45 PM »

2016: The Impossible



Sanders/Brown 281 49.1%
Jindal/Cruz 257 48.9%

2020: The North Will Rise Again



Sanders/Brown 423 60.1%
Cruz/Cotton 115 38.8%
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4644 on: July 08, 2015, 08:09:45 AM »
« Edited: July 08, 2015, 08:31:25 AM by NHI »

[/Chris Christie/Marco Rubio: 364 (52.9%)center]
[/Bernie Sanders/Amy Klobuchar: 174 (45.3%)center]
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Higgs
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« Reply #4645 on: July 08, 2015, 02:30:51 PM »
« Edited: July 08, 2015, 02:40:59 PM by Higgs »



Jon Huntsman/Susan Collins - 488 EV
Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren - 50 EV
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #4646 on: July 08, 2015, 02:44:08 PM »

Serious predictions:

2016:

Hillary Clinton/Martin O'Malley def. Scott Walker/Marco Rubio



Clinton loses a very close election, barely winning Ohio by less than 1% and winning Virginia by ~1.5%. The economy goes back into recession during Clinton's first year in office as the European Union and China both have economic crises.

2020:

Marco Rubio/Rand Paul def. Hillary Clinton/Martin O'Malley[/quote]



Rubio/Paul comes surprisingly close to winning in Washington, Illinois, Connecticut, and (extremely shockingly) Vermont. He doesn't win any of them, of course, but makes them shift further to the right than they have since the 1980s. As the Recession starts subsiding, President Rubio's approval ratings skyrocket, and he is easily reelected in a landslide.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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« Reply #4647 on: July 08, 2015, 04:27:58 PM »

2008


Cheney/Palin (Republican) 43% PV, 347 EV
Obama/Biden (Democrat) 29% PV, 76 EV
Clinton/Bayh (Third Way) 26% PV, 115 EV

2012


Cheney/Palin (National Republican) 63% PV, 437 EV
Tester/Collins (Democratic Unity) 34% PV, 101 EV

2016 - President


Great Fatherly Leader Cheney (National Falangist) 93% PV, 538 EV
Write in: 7% PV, 0 EV

2016 - Vice President


Ted Cruz (National Falangist) 54% PV
Sarah Palin (National Falangist) 46% PV

2020 and 2024 elections suspended

2028 President


Klobuchar/Marilinda Garcia (America Forward) 52% PV
Castro/Harris 47% PV (Truth and Reconciliation)
Gray - States under special federal administration (yet to ratify new constitution)
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4648 on: July 09, 2015, 07:58:56 AM »
« Edited: July 09, 2015, 02:45:30 PM by NHI »

Feel The Bern!
√ Sanders/Gilibrand: 395 (54.7%)
Trump/Cruz: 143 (43.4%)
Other: 0 (1.9%)

√ Ayotte/Sandoval: 290 (50.1%)
Sanders/Gilibrand: 248 (48.2%)
Other: 0 (1.7%)
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badgate
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4649 on: July 09, 2015, 10:43:38 AM »

Feel The Bern!
√ Sanders/Gilibrand: 395 (54.7%)
Trump/Cruz: 143 (43.4%)
Other: 0 (1.9%)

√ Ayotte/Sandoval: 290 (50.1%)
Sanders/Gilibrand: 248 (48.2%)
Other: 0 (1.7%)

Sanders party flips after taking office?Huh
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