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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4975 on: January 29, 2016, 11:23:17 PM »

Cuomo/Clinton: 309 (40.0%)
Bush/Quayle: 225 (38.7%)
Perot/Stockdale: 4 (20.2%)

Cuomo/Clinton: 272 (46.7%)
Dole/Kemp: 266 (43.9%)
Perot/Choate: 0 (8.4%)

McCain/Bush: 322 (50.8%)
Clinton/Bradley: 216 (46.1%)
Nader/LaDuke: 0 (2.2%)

McCain/Bush: 532 (62.5%)
Kucinich/Dean: 6 (35.7%)
Other: 0 (1.8%)

Bush/Collins: 349 (53.5%)
Kerry/Gore: 189 (45.2%)
Other: 0 (1.3%)

Bush/Collins: 310 (50.8%)
Boxer/Rendell: 228 (47.5%)
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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« Reply #4976 on: January 30, 2016, 12:31:34 AM »
« Edited: January 30, 2016, 02:15:40 AM by New Canadaland »

2000

Liberal 359
Reform/Alliance 114
Southern Bloc 51
PC 8
NDP 6

2004

Liberal 252
Conservative 184
Southern Bloc 79
NDP 23

2006

Conservative 232
Liberal 204
Southern Bloc 68
NDP 34

2008

Conservative 243
Liberal 183
Southern Bloc 68
NDP 44

2011

Conservative 291
NDP 200
Liberal 32
Southern Bloc 15

2015

Liberal 308
Conservative 159
NDP 48
Southern Bloc 23
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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« Reply #4977 on: January 30, 2016, 12:48:13 AM »
« Edited: January 30, 2016, 02:55:17 AM by New Canadaland »

1979

PC 265
Liberal 226
NDP 31
Social Credit 16

1980

Liberal 300
PC 183
NDP 55

1984

PC 449
Liberal 52
NDP 37

1988

PC 313
Liberal 161
NDP 64

1993

Liberal 377
Southern Bloc 77
Reform 74
NDP 6
PC 4

1997

Liberal 302
Reform 94
Southern Bloc 66
NDP 43
PC 41
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Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
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« Reply #4978 on: January 30, 2016, 01:08:42 AM »

2000

Liberal 359
Reform 114
Southern Bloc 51
PC 8
NDP 6

2004

Liberal 252
Conservative 184
Southern Bloc 79
NDP 23

2006

Conservative 232
Liberal 204
Southern Bloc 68
NDP 34

2008

Conservative 243
Liberal 183
Southern Bloc 68
NDP 44

2011

Conservative 291
NDP 200
Liberal 32
Southern Bloc 15

2015

Liberal 308
Conservative 159
NDP 48
Southern Bloc 23

Why would Oregon vote Reform in 2000
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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« Reply #4979 on: January 30, 2016, 01:13:24 AM »
« Edited: January 30, 2016, 01:16:11 AM by New Canadaland »

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I based OR/WA's voting patterns on Vancouver Island+Coastal BC. (California was based more on the city of Vancouver and its suburbs). BC has some very interesting voting patterns which have been the source of very intense debate among certain Canadians on Atlas...

Many now-NDP areas in BC voted Reform out of regional concerns. Elizabeth May (only Green) was elected from a seat that elected Reform members in the 90's. The NDP's best seat in 2015 also voted Reform then.

Most of these Reform->NDP seats are rural, overwhelmingly white, coastal, anti-establishment places where environmentalism has become increasingly important over the last decade. In contrast, environmentalism hasn't become as widespread in the interior, so it has stayed conservative. The anti-establishment part is what allows them to make the switch between Reform/Conservative and NDP.
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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« Reply #4980 on: January 30, 2016, 04:08:17 AM »
« Edited: January 30, 2016, 04:26:24 AM by New Canadaland »

1900

Liberal 313
Conservative 134

1917

Unionist 362
Opposition 169

1925

Conservative 248
Liberal 229 * formed coalition with Prog
Prog 54

1935

Liberal 399
Conservative 93
Social Credit 32
CCF 7

1945

Liberal 293
PC 118
CCF 57
Social Credit 25

1958

PC 426
Liberal 105

1963

Liberal 267
PC 192
Social Credit 51
NDP 28

1968

Liberal 367
PC 106
NDP 40
Social Credit 25
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Slow Learner
Battenberg
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« Reply #4981 on: January 30, 2016, 11:42:49 AM »

Worst of all Worlds - 2010 Gubernatorial


Republicans 37 (+14)
Democrats 13 (-13)

Alabama

58.5% Bradley Byrne
41.5% Ron Sparks

Connecticut
50.3% Tom Foley
47.9% Dan Malloy

Georgia
51.2% Karen Handel
44.8% Roy Barnes

Illinois
47.3% Bill Brady
45.9% Pat Quinn

Massachusetts
44.5% Charlie Baker
44.2% Deval Patrick

Minnesota
44.1% Tom Emmer
42.9% Mark Dayton

Nevada
45.54% Jim Gibbons
45.53% Rory Reid

Oregon
49.7% Chris Dudley
47.6% John Kitzhaber

Rhode Island
33.3% Steve Laffey
33.0% Lincoln Chafee

Tennessee
62.1% Zach Wamp
36.4% Mike McWherter

Vermont

48.5% Brian Dubie
48.3% Deb Markowitz

2010 House
Republicans 255 (+76)
Democrats 180 (-76)
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j4kor
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« Reply #4982 on: January 30, 2016, 04:49:29 PM »

horrifying
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #4983 on: February 01, 2016, 06:15:16 PM »

Number of mosques in each state as of 2011, per this report.

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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4984 on: February 01, 2016, 07:04:00 PM »


Basically proportional to population except with NY/NJ punching above their weight.  Less interesting from a political perspective that I would have expected.

Lol at VT though
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
Peebs
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« Reply #4985 on: February 02, 2016, 01:16:14 PM »


329-206-3
2012-15 Governor maps on a presidential level. Feel free to think of an electoral scenario.
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Boston Bread
New Canadaland
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« Reply #4986 on: February 02, 2016, 01:27:09 PM »


329-206-3
2012-15 Governor maps on a presidential level. Feel free to think of an electoral scenario.
Christie/Sandoval vs Manchin/Schweitzer

Christie turns around to being pro-immigration after winning the primary.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4987 on: February 02, 2016, 09:23:05 PM »


329-206-3
2012-15 Governor maps on a presidential level. Feel free to think of an electoral scenario.

Once again,



These maps are so weird Tongue
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
Peebs
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« Reply #4988 on: February 03, 2016, 08:11:28 AM »


301-232-5
2010-13 Governors.
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #4989 on: February 03, 2016, 04:11:52 PM »
« Edited: February 03, 2016, 04:13:42 PM by LongLiveRock - Bernie '16! »

1840:


Democrats: Martin Van Buren/Richard Johnson
Whig: William Henry Harrison/John Tyler
Northern Whig: Daniel Webster/Oliver H Smith

Things progress as in OTL: Harrison dies, Tyler is appointed but becomes unpopular with Whigs all around.

1844



Democrats: James Polk/George Dallas - 184 EVs
Northern Whig/Liberty: Theodore Freylinghuysen/Samuel Phelps - 76 EVs
Whig: Henry Clay/John Calhoun - 15 EVs

The Whig party fractures fully into the Liberty (Northern Whig) and Loyalist (Whig) parties. The presidency of Polk is a time of resurgence - except for Polk, who retires.

1848:



Democrats/Free Soil (Coalition): Martin Van Buren/William Butler - 112 EVs
Liberty: Abbott Lawrence/Millard Fillmore - 153 EVs
Loyalist: Zachary Taylor/Andrew Stewart - 25 EVs

I'll continue this later.

List of presidents:
William Henry Harrison (1841-1841)
John Tyler (1841-1845)
James Polk (1845-1849)
Abbott Lawrence (1849-???)

List of VPs
John Tyler (1841-1841)
Winfield Scott (1841-1842) -elected to appease the southern part of the party
Theodore Freylinghuysen (1842-1845) -appointed as an act of rebellion: Freylinghuysen was a Liberty party member, and while Tyler remained an independent, it was clear where his heart was.
George Dallas (1845-1849)
Andrew Stewart (1849-???)
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4990 on: February 03, 2016, 04:31:44 PM »

The West Wing Election: Santos' Reelection
Walken: 337 (52.3%)
Santos: 201 (45.4%)
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #4991 on: February 04, 2016, 04:48:52 PM »

Reagan/Bush (1984) vs. Gore/Lieberman (2000) with no numbers adjusted and using 1984 EVs:



Republican: Ronald Reagan (California)/George H.W. Bush (Connecticut) - 51.34%, 337 EVs
Democratic: Al Gore (Tennessee)/Joe Lieberman (Connecticut) - 48.08%, 201 EVs
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Clark Kent
ClarkKent
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« Reply #4992 on: February 04, 2016, 05:16:01 PM »



How do I get rid of the blank Puerto Rico?
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #4993 on: February 04, 2016, 05:19:10 PM »

How do I get rid of the blank Puerto Rico?
You can't without giving up the expanded color palette. 
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Clark Kent
ClarkKent
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« Reply #4994 on: February 04, 2016, 06:06:10 PM »

How do I get rid of the blank Puerto Rico?
You can't without giving up the expanded color palette. 
That sucks.
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BigVic
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« Reply #4995 on: February 06, 2016, 07:25:25 AM »
« Edited: March 16, 2016, 09:18:02 AM by BigVic »

The pretzel of doom onwards

2004


Pres. Richard B. Cheney (R-WY)/Vice Pres. John M. Engler (R-MI) 335 (51.5%)
Sen. Thomas A. Daschle (D-SD)/Sen. Daniel R. Graham (R-FL) 203 (48.2%)

2008


Sen. Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY)/Sen. Barack H. Obama (D-IL) 382 (54.6%)
Fmr Gov. W. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Rep. Ronald E. Paul (R-TX) 156 (45.1%)

2012


Pres. Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY)/Vice Pres. Barack H. Obama (D-IL) 421 (57.8%)
Gov. James R. Perry (R-TX)/Sen. John R. Thune (R-SD) 117 (42.1%)

2016


Vice Pres. Barack H. Obama (D-IL)/Sen. Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA) 254 (42.1%)
Sen. Bernard "Bernie" Sanders (I-VT)/Fmr Gov. Lincoln D. Chafee (I-RI) 146 (30.5%)
Sen. Randal H. "Rand" Paul (R-KY)/Gov. Susana Martinez (R-NM) 138 (27.4%)

2017 Contingent Election
Ballot 1
Sen. Randal H. "Rand" Paul (R-KY) 24
Vice Pres. Barack H. Obama (D-IL) 17
Sen. Bernard "Bernie" Sanders (I-VT) 9


Ballot 2
Vice Pres. Barack H. Obama (D-IL) 22
Sen. Randal H. "Rand" Paul (R-KY) 21
Sen. Bernard "Bernie" Sanders (I-VT) 7


Ballot 3
Vice Pres. Barack H. Obama (D-IL) 25
Sen. Randal H. "Rand" Paul (R-KY) 25
Sen. Bernard "Bernie" Sanders (I-VT) 0


Ballot 4
Vice Pres. Barack H. Obama (D-IL) 26
Sen. Randal H. "Rand" Paul (R-KY) 24
Sen. Bernard "Bernie" Sanders (I-VT) 0

Senate easily elects Kaine as Vice Pres.
            
2020


Pres. Barack H. Obama (D-IL)/Vice Pres. Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA) 275 (46.4%)
Gov. Marco A. Rubio (R-FL)/Gov. Brian E. Sandoval (R-WI) 263 (45.1%)
Fmr Sen. James W. "Jim" DeMint (T-SC)/Sen. Cory C. Gardner (T-CO) 0 (7.8%)
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4996 on: February 06, 2016, 09:46:21 AM »

Kerry Wins Electoral College, Bush Wins Popular Vote
John Kerry/John Edwards: 279 (48.9%)
George W. Bush/Richard Cheney: 259 (49.7%)
Other: 0 (1.4%)

The Battle of the Johns: McCain Defeats Kerry
Sen. John McCain/Sen. Lisa Murkowski: 339 (51.4%)
Pres. John Kerry/Vice Pres. John Edwards: 199 (46.9%)
Other: 0 (1.7%)

The Battle of the Johns II: Despite Tough Fight McCain is Reelected over VP Edwards
Pres. John McCain/ Vice Pres. Lisa Murkowski: 305 (50.0%)
Frm. Vice Pres. John Edwards/ Sen. Russ Feingold: 233 (48.1%)
Other: 0 (1.9%)

The Women Vote: Clinton Narrowly Beats Murkowski to become First Woman Prez.
Gov. Hillary Clinton/Sen. Barack Obama: 277 (49.8%)
Vice Pres. Lisa Murkowski/Sen. John Sununu: 261 (48.3%)
Other: 0 (2.1%)

The Battle of New York and Texas: Clinton Trounces Perry
Pres. Hillary Clinton/Vice Pres. Barack Obama: 368 (53.5%)
Gov. Rick Perry/Sen. John Thune: 170 (44.7%)
Other: 0 (1.8%)
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
Peebs
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« Reply #4997 on: February 06, 2016, 08:16:54 PM »

20+, 10-19, 3-9
12-20

191-188-159
04-08

209-171-158
92-00

210-161-167
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Clark Kent
ClarkKent
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« Reply #4998 on: February 06, 2016, 08:38:14 PM »



Republican: Theodore Roosevelt (New York)/Charles W. Fairbanks (Indiana) - 47.45%, 269 EVs
Democratic: Franklin Delano Roosevelt (New York)/John Nance Garner (Texas) - 48.29%, 262 EVs
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LLR
LongLiveRock
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4999 on: February 07, 2016, 09:00:59 AM »

The Presidency of Abbott Lawrence: A Continuation

President Lawrence has pushed an anti-slavery agenda, and many in the south are rebelling and rioting. The Democrats, now the main opposition to the Liberty Party, are careful to oppose this. Many claim that Lawrence is "toast" in the next election, but he maintains that he can win.

1852



Democrat: Franklin Pierce/Sam Houston - 109 EVs
Liberty: Abbott Lawrence/Millard Fillmore - 153 EVs
Loyalist: Edward Bates/William Graham - 34 EVs

1856
Vice president Fillmore obtains the Liberty nomination, while William Bates does the same for the Democrats. The Loyalist, hoping to get more recognition, nominate a Californian named John Fremont.



Democrat: William O. Butler/Stephen Douglas 152 EVs
Liberty: Millard Fillmore/Rufus Choate 131 EVs
Loyalist: John Fremont/William Graham 4 EVs
(Faithless Electors): Sterling Price/(unknown) 9 EVs

1860

But that was the last time the Loyalists would contest an election. The party folded, with most Loyalists joining the Democratic Party. The presidency of General William Butler was not a good one,  and the "incompetent" Butler was almost forced to resign. VP Douglas, in disagreement and embarrassment, did resign. He was replaced by John Breckinridge. With the nation in a tailspin, the Liberty Party turned to Illinois Senator Abraham Lincoln. (Note: the libertys are now blue)

Democrats: William Butler/John Breckinridge 115 EVs
Liberty: Abraham Lincoln/Hannibal Hamlin 188 EVs



Lincoln's proud anti-slavery policies, much harsher than those of Lawrence, angered the South. By the time of the 1864 election, many states had seceded. What will happen in the Civil War? Find out when I'm motivated enough to post this again!

List of presidents:
William Henry Harrison (1841-1841)
John Tyler (1841-1845)
James Polk (1845-1849)
Abbott Lawrence (1849-1857)
William Butler (1857-1861)
Abraham Lincoln (1861-???)

List of VPs
John Tyler (1841-1841)
Winfield Scott (1841-1842)
Theodore Freylinghuysen(1842-1845).
George Dallas (1845-1849)
Millard Fillmore (1849-1857)
Stephen Douglas (1857-1858)
John Breckinridge (1858-1861)
Hannibal Hamlin (1861-???)
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