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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5000 on: February 07, 2016, 04:51:43 PM »

Sen. Gary Hart/Sen. Lloyd Bentsen: 271 (49.4%)
Pres. George H.W. Bush/Vice Pres. Bob Dole: 267 (49.3%)

Pres. Gary Hart/Vice Pres. Lloyd Bentsen: 538 (65.0%)
Pat Robertson/Pat Buchanan: 180 (29.8%)
Rep. Ron Paul/Rep. Andre Marrou: 0 (1.4%)

Vice Pres. Lloyd Bentsen/Gov. Mario Cuomo: 434 (55.2%)
Frm. Vice Pres. Bob Dole/Rep. Jack Kemp: 104 (43.7%)
Pat Buchanan/David Duke: 0 (0.6%)


Vice Pres. Mario Cuomo/Sen. Tom Harkin: 309 (51.0%)
Sen. Phil Gramm/Sen. Richard Lugar: 229 (47.5%)

Sen. John McCain/Rep. John Kasich: 294 (50.1%)
Pres. Mario Cuomo/Vice Pres. Tom Harkin: 244 (48.6%)

Pres. John McCain/Vice Pres. John Kasich: 524 (60.1%)
Sen. Al Gore/Sen. Bill Bradley: 14 (38.4%)

Vice Pres. John Kasich/Sen. Olympia Snowe: 502 (59.4%)
Sen. Paul Wellstone/Gov. Howard Dean: 36 (39.1%)

Pres. John Kasich/Vice Pres. Olympia Snowe: 370 (53.2%)
Gov. Gavin Newsom/Sen. Andrew Cuomo: 168 (45.1%)
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
Peebs
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« Reply #5001 on: February 07, 2016, 04:56:23 PM »


1912 with those within 20% called for the 2nd place winner.
237-147-147
Meanwhile, in Congress, a Woodrow Wilson / Nicholas Butler team is voted for (assuming all Dems vote for Wilson or Marshall and All Pubs vote for Taft or Butler).
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #5002 on: February 08, 2016, 11:29:00 AM »

What if the American Independent Party replaced the Democrats as the primary opposition to the Republicans?

1968:


Republican: Richard Nixon (California)/Spiro T. Agnew (Maryland) - 41.84%, 389 EVs
American Independent: George Wallace (Alabama)/Curtis LeMay (California) - 27.40%, 128 EVs
Democratic: Hubert Humphrey (Minnesota)/Edmund Muskie (Maine) - 23.17%, 21 EVs
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #5003 on: February 08, 2016, 12:16:13 PM »

1972:



Republican: Richard Nixon (California)/Spiro T. Agnew (Maryland) - 43.01%, 330 EVs
American Independent: John G. Schmitz (California)/Thomas J. Anderson (Tennessee) - 37.45%, 205 EVs
Democratic: George McGovern (South Dakota)/Sargent Shriver (Maryland) - 18.91%, 3 EVs
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #5004 on: February 08, 2016, 07:51:45 PM »

2016:



John Kasich/Marco Rubio: 349 EV, 53.6%
Claire McCaskill/Elizabeth Warren: 189 EV, 44.7%
Your obsession has come too far. There is no way Kasich wins Michigan, Minnesota, Maine's 2nd, and New Mexico without winning New Hampshire.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #5005 on: February 08, 2016, 08:22:25 PM »

2016:



John Kasich/Marco Rubio: 349 EV, 53.6%
Claire McCaskill/Elizabeth Warren: 189 EV, 44.7%
There are too many loyal Dems for that to happen. Kasich picks up FL, OH, VA, and CO for a 276-262 EV victory and a narrow PV victory.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5006 on: February 08, 2016, 08:31:41 PM »


fixed
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #5007 on: February 09, 2016, 01:46:48 PM »

Close states (within 10%) for 2nd place

1992
339-195-4

1996
385-153

2000
293-245

2004
344-194

2008
321-217

2012
295-243
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #5008 on: February 09, 2016, 07:20:11 PM »

The four elections in which the popular vote winner lost.

1824
Adams, Jackson, Crawford, Clay
137-61-36-29
Victory for Jackson

1876
260-211
Larger victory for Hayes

1888
254-217
Slimmer victory for Harrison

2000
285-253
Larger victory for Bush
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rpryor03
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« Reply #5009 on: February 09, 2016, 08:08:59 PM »



Governor Christine Todd Whitman/Governor Tommy Thompson - 274
Vice President Al Gore/Senator Joe Lieberman - 264



Senator Joseph Lieberman/Representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones - 273
President Christine Todd Whitman/Vice President Tommy Thompson - 265



Senator Fred Thompson/Governor Gary Johnson - 273
President Joe Lieberman/Governor Mark Warner - 265



President Fred Thompson/Vice President Gary Johnson - 287
Governor Mark Warner/Governor Tom Vilsack - 251



President Gary Johnson/Vice President Jim DeMint - 326
Governor Barack Obama/Senator Janet Napolitano - 212



Senator Cory Booker/Governor Mary Burke - 288
Vice President Jim DeMint/Governor Marco Rubio - 250
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Slow Learner
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« Reply #5010 on: February 10, 2016, 07:39:09 AM »

I can't see Whitman doing as well as Bush in the south.
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rpryor03
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« Reply #5011 on: February 10, 2016, 12:09:23 PM »

1976



President Gerald Ford/Senator Bob Dole - 412

Senator Frank Church/Governor Jimmy Carter - 126

1980



Senator Walter Mondale/Governor Edwin Edwards - 358
Vice President Bob Dole/Senator Lowell Weicker - 180

1984



Senator Howard Baker/CIA Director George HW Bush - 381
President Walter Mondale/Vice President Edwin Edwards - 157

1988



President Howard Baker/Vice President George HW Bush - 307
Senator Ted Kennedy/Senator Lloyd Bentsen - 231

1992



Vice President George HW Bush/Governor Victor Atiyeh - 303
Mr. Ross Perot/Admiral James Stockdale - 119
Senator Bill Bradley/Senator Joseph Biden - 116

1996



President George HW Bush/Vice President Victor Atiyeh - 213
Governor Mario Cuomo/Senator Bob Kerrey - 163
Mr. H. Ross Perot/Governor Jerry Brown - 162

2000



Senator William Clinton/Senator Tom Daschle - 379
Mr. Steve Forbes/Senator Arlen Specter - 80
Mr. Donald Trump/Gov. Jesse Ventura - 79

2004



President William Clinton/Vice President Tom Daschle - 269
Senator John McCain/Governor Jim Gilmore - 269

2008



Vice President Tom Daschle/Senator Barack Obama - 298
Vice President Jim Gilmore/Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson - 240

2012



Governor W. Mitt Romney/Senator Gordon Smith - 272
President Tom Daschle/Vice President Barack Obama - 266

2016



President W. Mitt Romney/Vice President Gordon Smith - 275
Vice President Barack Obama/Governor Janet Napolitano
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5012 on: February 10, 2016, 05:04:44 PM »

Gov. Chris Christie/Sen. Kelly Ayotte: 325 (50.7%)
Pres. Barack Obama/Vice Pres. Joe Biden: 213 (47.9%)

Pres. Chris Christie/Vice Pres. Kelly Ayotte: 276 (49.6%)
Frm. Sec. of State Hillary Clinton/Gov. John Hickenlooper: 262 (48.9%)
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #5013 on: February 12, 2016, 06:49:38 PM »
« Edited: February 12, 2016, 07:12:53 PM by L.D. Smith »



1980 without Anderson, favoring Carter. [Oh and Maryland is off]

Reagan/Bush 51% PV, 356 EV
Carter/Mondale 47% PV, 182 EV

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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5014 on: February 12, 2016, 07:07:44 PM »

^^^, but favoring Reagan:

Former California Governor Ronald W. Reagan/Former CIA Director George H.W. Bush: 57.4%, 517 EVs
President Jimmy Carter/Vice President Walter Mondale: 41.0%, 21 EVs
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #5015 on: February 12, 2016, 07:14:43 PM »
« Edited: February 12, 2016, 07:30:12 PM by L.D. Smith »



Clinton takes all Perot support.

Clinton/Gore: 531 EV, 62% PV
Bush/Quayle: 7 EV, 37%  PV



Bush takes all the support

Bush/Quayle: 529 EV, 56% PV
Clinton/Gore 9 EV, 43%PV
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
Peebs
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« Reply #5016 on: February 12, 2016, 07:46:37 PM »



Clinton takes all Perot support.

Clinton/Gore: 531 EV, 62% PV
Bush/Quayle: 7 EV, 37%  PV
And if Bush took all Perot support:

Bush/Quayle: 481 EV/56% PV/47 S
Clinton/Gore: 47 EV/43% PV/3 S + DC
Closest state was Maryland, with only 63 votes in Clinton's favor.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #5017 on: February 12, 2016, 07:50:52 PM »



Perot takes 5% equally from both Clinton and Bush.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5018 on: February 12, 2016, 08:25:13 PM »



Perot win w/ 283 EVs, cuz why not
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #5019 on: February 12, 2016, 09:17:25 PM »
« Edited: February 12, 2016, 09:42:29 PM by Senator Truman »

1864: The Last Gasp of Dixie

Gen. George B. McClellan / Rep. George H. Pendleton [DEM] 155 EV; 46% pv
Pres. Abraham Lincoln / VP Hannibal Hamlin [REP] 58 EV; 43% pv
Gen. John C. Fremont / Gen. John Cochran [RAD] 20 EV; 11% pv
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Bigby
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« Reply #5020 on: February 13, 2016, 12:01:54 AM »
« Edited: February 13, 2016, 01:08:03 AM by Bigby »

(Results are for 2020.)

FINISH HIM! General Sonya Blade Clinches GOP Nomination, Defeats President Sanders Due to Poor Economy, Unpopular Peace Treaty with Emperor Kotal Kahn.

General Sonya Blade (R - TX)/Senator Jeff Sessions (R - AL): 349 EVs, 56.4% PV.
President Bernie Sanders (D - VT)/Vice President Luis Gutierrez (D - IL): 189 EVs, 42.9% PV.
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
Peebs
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« Reply #5021 on: February 13, 2016, 10:57:01 AM »


Pub and Prog support combined.
R - 379E/51%P/34S
D - 152E/42%P/14S
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Clark Kent
ClarkKent
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« Reply #5022 on: February 13, 2016, 11:32:43 AM »
« Edited: February 13, 2016, 11:35:07 AM by Senator Kent »

Republican Troubles from the Electoral College

2016


Republican: Gov. John Kasich (Ohio)/Sen. Marco Rubio (Florida) - 48.3%, 269 EVs
Democratic: frm. SecState Hillary Clinton (New York)/Sen. Tim Kaine (Virginia) - 47.9%, 269 EVs


The Democrats narrowly win back control of the Senate, but the GOP holds the House. President Kasich is inaugurated on January 20, while Vice President Kaine is sworn in a few weeks later.

2020

Democratic: Vice President Tim Kaine (Virginia)/former SecHUD Julian Castro (Texas) - 48.8%, 282 EVs
Republican: President John Kasich (Ohio)/Gov. Nikki Haley (South Carolina) - 49.1%, 256 EVs


In a cruel twist of fate, President Kasich again wins the popular vote, but despite a prosperous economy and a relatively peaceful world, he loses the electoral vote. Tim Kaine is sworn in as the 46th President of the United States.

2024


Republican: Gov. Marco Rubio (Florida)/Sen. Justin Amash (Michigan) - 51.8%, 294 EVs
Democratic: President Tim Kaine (Virginia)/Vice President Julian Castro (Texas) - 46.3%, 244 EVs


The economic downturn and increase in Chinese aggression in the Asia-Pacific region greatly contributed to President Kaine's defeat to the charismatic Governor of Florida. However, despite a relatively comfortable margin of victory in the popular vote, the nature of the electoral college made the election much closer than it actually was.
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Mr. Smith
MormDem
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« Reply #5023 on: February 13, 2016, 01:46:57 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2016, 02:08:58 PM by L.D. Smith »

1968 A) All Wallace support to Humphrey



Humphrey/Muskie: 56.2% PV
Nixon/Agnew: 43.4% PV

B) All Wallace support to Nixon



Nixon/Agnew: 56.9%
Humphrey/Muskie: 42.7%

C) Wallace takes 5% from Nixon and Humphrey



Nixon/Agnew: 38.4%
Humphrey/Muskie: 37.7%
Wallace/LeMay: 23.5%
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #5024 on: February 13, 2016, 02:00:30 PM »

1868: Seward's Revenge
In defiance of the "Copperhead" wing of his party, President McClellan continues to prosecute the war as a crusade to save the Union after peace negotiations collapse in early 1865. Enraged anti-war Democrats form a breakaway ticket in the 1868 elections, allowing Republican William H. Seward to win in a rout.


Sen. William H. Seward / Rep. Schuyler Colfax [REP] 222 EV; 48% pv
Pres. George McClellan / Gen. John A. Dix [DEM] 11 EV; 33% pv
Gov. Clement Vallandigham / VP George H. Pendleton [COP] 0 EV; 19% pv

1872: His Truth Goes Marching On
Seward renews the war effort in earnest, with the result that by March 1871 the states of the former Confederacy have all laid down their arms. The Republican ticket is reelected in a landslide, but Seward's untimely death in the days following the election elevates Vice President Colfax to the executive mansion.


Pres. William H. Seward / VP Schuyler Colfax [REP] 59% pv
Fr. Gov. Horatio Seymour / Sen. Thomas A. Hendricks [DEM] 41% pv


Pres. Schuyler Colfax / Sen. Henry Wilson [REP] 234 EV
Pres. Schuyler Colfax / Sen. Salmon P. Chase [REP] 22 EV
Pres. Schuyler Colfax / Gen. John C. Fremont [REP] 6 EV
Sen. Charles Sumner / Sen. Salmon P. Chase [REP] 18 EV
Fr. Gov. Horatio Seymour / Sen. Thomas A. Hendricks [DEM] 15 EV
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