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April 16, 2024, 05:56:47 AM
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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cxs018
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« Reply #5325 on: May 27, 2016, 03:35:33 PM »



Senator Brian Sandoval/Governor Cory Gardner: 444 EV
Governor Ann Kuster/Senator Stefany Shaheen: 94 EV

Closest wins for Kuster: California (Kuster +1.4%), Maryland (Kuster +1.8%), Rhode Island (Kuster +5%), Massachusetts (Kuster +6.9%), Vermont (Kuster +10%), Hawaii (Kuster +15%), New Hampshire (Kuster +16.7%)

Subtle.
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Peebs
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« Reply #5326 on: May 27, 2016, 03:51:29 PM »

Governor Ann Kuster/Senator Stefany Shaheen: 94 EV
They're kind of from the same state.
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #5327 on: May 27, 2016, 04:06:03 PM »

Governor Ann Kuster/Senator Stefany Shaheen: 94 EV
They're kind of from the same state.
How Ironic. They won't get NH's EV's then.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #5328 on: May 27, 2016, 04:58:04 PM »


Clinton - 295 EV
Trump - 243 EV
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #5329 on: May 27, 2016, 09:56:12 PM »



Democratic: Ronald Reagan (CA) - 50.60%, 314 EVs
Republican: Bill Clinton (AR) - 49.40%, 224 EVs
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
Peebs
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« Reply #5330 on: May 28, 2016, 09:50:30 PM »

Crosspost: Trump wins NY
On November 7th, a genie comes to visit Trump. He offers him one wish. No limitations, except that he can't wish for more wishes or more genies. He wishes to win New York tomorrow. His wish is granted... but at what cost?

November 8, 2016 was an anomaly. New York voted for Trump with 100% of the vote, but every other state voted for Clinton with 100% of the vote.
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Golfman76
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« Reply #5331 on: May 28, 2016, 10:10:25 PM »

Crosspost: Trump wins NY
On November 7th, a genie comes to visit Trump. He offers him one wish. No limitations, except that he can't wish for more wishes or more genies. He wishes to win New York tomorrow. His wish is granted... but at what cost?

November 8, 2016 was an anomaly. New York voted for Trump with 100% of the vote, but every other state voted for Clinton with 100% of the vote.

This is like that one post in where Gore is visited by a genie after the 2000 election. Gore can only have one wish. Gore wishes to win Florida in 2000. Gore does win every Florida vote, but loses every other vote to Bush.
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Peebs
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« Reply #5332 on: May 28, 2016, 10:13:41 PM »

Crosspost: Trump wins NY
On November 7th, a genie comes to visit Trump. He offers him one wish. No limitations, except that he can't wish for more wishes or more genies. He wishes to win New York tomorrow. His wish is granted... but at what cost?

November 8, 2016 was an anomaly. New York voted for Trump with 100% of the vote, but every other state voted for Clinton with 100% of the vote.

This is like that one post in where Gore is visited by a genie after the 2000 election. Gore can only have one wish. Gore wishes to win Florida in 2000. Gore does win every Florida vote, but loses every other vote to Bush.
That's actually what it was based on.
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5333 on: May 29, 2016, 08:46:12 AM »
« Edited: May 29, 2016, 09:34:07 AM by NHI »

✓ Mitch Daniels/Marco Rubio: 272 (49.2%)
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 266 (49.1%)

Mitch Daniels narrowly defeats President Obama to become the nation's 45th President, and while he presides over a resurgent economy he faces obstacles from a divided Congress. Attempts are made to reform social security and to repeal Obamacare, but all measures fail before reaching President Daniels' desk. In an hope to regain fiscal sanity, Daniels stands by as the Federal Government is shutdown in the Spring of 2014 over funding for Obamacare. Any attempts to repeal fall short and the government is eventually reopened, but the incident leaves the President damaged politically in the Fall, Democrats increase their margins in the Senate and recapture the House of Representatives.

Frustrated, Daniels announces in the spring of 2015 he will not seek reelection, thus allowing his Vice President Marco Rubio a shot at the Republican nomination. Rubio faces Rand Paul in the primary, but dispenses with him after South Carolina. On the Democratic side, long time favorite Hillary Clinton announces she will not be a candidate for President, leaving the field wide open. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders runs, but drops out quickly after failing to gain traciton. Other prominent Democrats including Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker and Former VP Joe Biden run. Warren emerges an early favorite after winning Iowa in a blowout, but loses to Biden in the critical NH Primary and the subsequent southern states, which guarantees him the nomination, though Warren remains in the fight until the end in June, when Biden officially clinches the nomination.

In an effort to unite the party Biden selects his one-time rival as his running mate, giving the Democrats a major boost heading into the fall contest. Marco Rubio selects, in a surprising pick Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich as his running mate, who becomes the quintsential attackdog against the Biden-Warren Ticket. The election is close throughout much of the fall, but in the end Biden is able to paint Rubio as being part of the problem in Washington and manages to defeat him, running on a platform of country unity and pragmatic solutions.  [/i

✓ Joe Biden/Elizabeth Warren: 303 (50.8%)
Marco Rubio/Newt Gingrich: 235 (47.6%)

An era of Democratic Dominance is ushered in following the election of Joe Biden in 2016. The 46th President proves immensely popular and is successful in championing many long-fought Democratic causes, including an amendment to the Constitution, overturning Citizen's United. Biden, also takes to heart an initative aimed at curing Cancer in the United States. In 2018, Democrats hold onto both Houses of Congress, actually gaining seats. Biden maintains a high approval rating throughout much of his terms and while seen as a shoe-in for reelection, Biden declines a second term in 2020, thus elevating Elizabeth Warren to the top spot on the ticket.

Warren is nominated without much of a contest in 2020, while the Republicans are locked in a tough battle between Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan and former Vice President Marco Rubio. Heading into their convention Republicans are divided over a prospective nominee and ultimately select a white knight candidate in Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush who is nominated on the fourth ballot at the Republican convention.

Bush originally offers the Vice Presidency to Paul Ryan, who declines to join the ticket, thus causing further uproar in the Republican ranks. Ultimately, Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn joins the Bush tickets, but Republicans are bitterly divided heading out of the convention. Bush runs a respectable campaign, blasting Warren as a "tax and spend liberal" and hits the Biden Administration for failing to address the growing deficit. However it is a lost cause, Republican divisions over Bush and a united Democratic party ensure Warren's election as the 47th President and the first woman elected to the office.

Warren, a devout progressive is forced to moderate (a little) as a brief recession hits early on in her term, which delivers Republican control of the Senate in 2022, however by 2024 the economy has recovered her approval ratings are salvageable, and thus she is reelected easily over Texas Senator Ted Cruz. 366-172 (53.9% - 44.5%)


✓ Elizabeth Warren/Cory Booker: 329 (51.6%)
John Ellis Bush/Marsha Blackburn: 209 (46.3%)

Presidents of the United States:
45. Mitch Daniels: 2013-2017*
46. Joseph R. Biden: 2017-2021*
47. Elizabeth Warren: 2021-2029
48. Cory Booker: 2029-2033^
49. Mia Love: 2033-2041
50. Unknown Republican Governor: 2041-2045

*Declined to run for Reelection
^Defeated for Reelection
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5334 on: May 30, 2016, 01:31:50 AM »

1980 - Edwards smashes Baker



Former Governor Edwin Edwards (D-LA)/Governor Jerry Brown (D-CA) - 54.1%, 392 EV's
Minority Leader Howard Baker (R-TN)/Congressman Phil Crane (R-IL) - 44.9%, 146 EV's

1984 - Despite corruption, Edwards returned to the White House



President Edwin Edwards (D-LA)/Vice President Jerry Brown (D-CA) - 52.7%, 342 EV's
Former FBI Director George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/Senator William Armstrong (R-CO) - 45.6%, 196 EV's

1988 - Racketeering brings down Edwards, Democrats



Governor George Deukmejian (R-CA)/Senator John Danforth (R-MO) - 52.8%, 345 EV's
Vice President Gary Hart (D-CO)/Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX) - 46.2%, 193 EV's
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5335 on: May 30, 2016, 06:44:21 AM »

Beginning of the End
Trump/Ernst: 284 (49.44%)
Clinton/Hickenlooper: 254 (49.09%)

The Completion
Trump/Ernst: 312 (51.0%)
Booker/Subena: 226 (47.6%)
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« Reply #5336 on: May 30, 2016, 12:18:18 PM »

2016: Trumpocalypse Now

Mr. Donald Trump (R-NY) / Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) - 279 (47.6%)
Former Secretary Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 259 (47.8%)
January 20, 2017: All Hail President Gingrich
Trump gets assassinated during his inaugural speech.
2020: We Can Annex The Moon

President Newt Gingrich (R-GA) / Vice President Joni Ernst (R-IA) - 271 (39.5%)
Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM) / Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) - 269 (41.2%)
Mr. Kanye West (I-CA) / Dr. Ben Carson (I-FL) - 1 (18.5%)
February 6, 2024: Muh Future President Ernst
President Gingrich dies in his sleep at the age of 80.
2024: Who Cares About Having 435 Representatives?

Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) / Senator Patrick Murphy (D-FL) - 329 (50.2%)
President Joni Ernst (R-IA) / Vice President Cory Gardner (R-CO) - 218 (49.2%)
Second box in 2020 and 2024 is the moon.
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5337 on: May 30, 2016, 02:54:32 PM »

Newt Gingrich/Jon Huntsman: 392 (48.75%)
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 137 (37.29%)
Bernie Sanders/Cheri Honkala: 9 (11.51%)


Jon Huntsman/Marco Rubio: 503 (57.81%)
Martin O'Malley/Tulsi Gabbard: 35 (39.04%)
Gary Johnson/Bill Weld: 0 (2.15%)

Marco Rubio/Chris Christie: 380 (53.82%)
Andrew Cuomo/Gavin Newsom: 161 (44.36%)
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5338 on: May 31, 2016, 02:16:30 PM »

1992 - Deukmejian defeats Harkin in a landslide



President George Deukmejian (R-CA)/Vice President John Danforth (R-MO) - 57.2%, 502 EV's
Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA)/Senator Robert Kerrey (D-NE) - 40.3%, 36 EV's

1996 - VP Danforth scores a narrow victory



Vice President John Danforth (R-MO)/Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney (R-WY) - 48.9%, 295 EV's

Governor Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Congressman Dick Gephardt (D-MO) - 47.6%, 243 EV's

2000 - Kerrey upsets President Danforth



Senator Robert Kerrey (D-NE)/Governor Dave McCrudy (D-OK) - 42.1%, 278 EV's
President John Danforth (R-MO)/Vice President Glenn Hubbard (R-FL) - 42.3%, 260 EV's
Columnist Pat Buchanan (I-DC)/Economist Pat Choate (I-TX) - 11.8%, 0 Ev's
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mencken
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« Reply #5339 on: May 31, 2016, 02:30:40 PM »

Trump gets the last laugh:

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NHI
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« Reply #5340 on: May 31, 2016, 11:48:06 PM »


Businessman Donald Trump/Gov. Chris Christie: 327 (52.2%)
Sec. of State: Hillary Clinton/Sen. Tim Kaine: 211 (45.6%)

Pres. Donald Trump/Vice Pres. Chris Christie: 446 (58.7%)
Mayor Bill de Blasio/Gov. Gavin Newsom: 92 (39.5%)
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #5341 on: June 01, 2016, 12:26:55 PM »
« Edited: June 01, 2016, 01:01:18 PM by Peebs »

Ben Kenobi Was Right: An Experiment with 538's Swing Calculator

Clinton - 481/60.8%
Trump - 57/37.5%
CE White: 52% D
NCE White: 54% R
Black: 97% D
Hispanic/Latinx/Asian/Other: 85% D
All turnout is the same as it was in 2012.
EDIT: One with RCP's Demographic Calculator

Clinton - 479/61.5%
Trump - 59/38.5%
Non-Hispanic White: 50% D
African American: 91.6% D
Hispanic/Asian/Other: 85% D
All turnout is the same as it was in 2012.
KY and NE were technically ties, but they appeared red, so I put them in the Republican column.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #5342 on: June 01, 2016, 12:50:55 PM »

2000 Recount Redux (but 2x worse)



Clinton: 49.6%, 265 EV
Trump: 48.7%, 273 EV

FL: 49.6% - 49.6%, Trump wins
WI: 49.4% - 49.4%, Trump wins

http://53eig.ht/21wa4Aw#CEW:0.535;0.79,NCEW:0.69;0.62,Black:0.08;0.64,Latino:0.218;0.5,A/O:0.3;0.5
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NHI
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« Reply #5343 on: June 04, 2016, 08:58:26 PM »

2012 Republican Primary
Donald Trump: 51%
Tim Pawlenty: 30%
Mitt Romney: 17%

2012 General Election:
Donald Trump/John Thune: 294 (50.3%)
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 244 (48.4%)

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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5344 on: June 04, 2016, 10:17:48 PM »

2012 Republican Primary
Donald Trump: 51%
Tim Pawlenty: 30%
Mitt Romney: 17%

2012 General Election:
Donald Trump/John Thune: 294 (50.3%)
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 244 (48.4%)


You think he would have beat Obama?  Really?

It's a hypothetical, but possibly.
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FEMA Camp Administrator
Cathcon
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« Reply #5345 on: June 05, 2016, 07:48:02 PM »


Cruzson vs. Krabio
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FEMA Camp Administrator
Cathcon
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« Reply #5346 on: June 05, 2016, 08:01:15 PM »


Trasich vs. Everyone Else
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FEMA Camp Administrator
Cathcon
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« Reply #5347 on: June 05, 2016, 08:12:12 PM »
« Edited: June 05, 2016, 08:23:39 PM by Cathcon »

1912: Socialist Republicanism (Taft + Debs)

President William Howard Taft: 33 electoral votes, 29.17% of the popular vote

1912: Progressive Socialism (Roosevelt + Debs)

Former President Theodore Roosevelt: 147 electoral votes, 33.38% of the popular vote
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NHI
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« Reply #5348 on: June 05, 2016, 09:22:58 PM »

2008: Obama Loses a Close One
John McCain/Sarah Palin: 272 (49.1%)
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 266 (48.9%)

2012 Presidential Primaries:
Pres. McCain runs on a one term pledge in 2008 and keeps his word, announcing in 2011 he will not run for reelection. The Democratic race is a contest between Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Russ Feingold and Former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. On the Republican side Vice Pres. Palin is considered the favorite, but is challenge by Former Secretary of Commerce Mitt Romney, who resigns his post in late 2010. Also running, Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, and Congressman Ron Paul, but Romney emerges as the strong alternative to Palin.

The convention is brokered, but Palin narrowly emerges the winner with a slim majority, but the party remains divided heading into the election, even with the selection of Tim Pawlenty for Vice President.


Republican Primary:
Sarah Palin: 1,091 (50.1%)
Mitt Romney: 912 (47.9%)
Ron Paul: 191 (1.5%)

Hillary Clinton: 3,105 (55.7%)
Russ Feingold: 1,001 (43.6%)

2012: Clinton Ushers in Democratic Realignment

The weakened economy benefited the Democrats, greatly as Hillary Clinton took on Sarah Palin. Being the incumbent Vice President Palin was tied to the recession, and the Clinton campaign pounced on her vulnerability, including her own weaknesses as a candidate. Palin, also had to contend with a divided Republican Party, with many prominent Republicans sitting out the election, rather than endorse the VP. Palin bombed against Clinton in the debates and ultimately avoided national interviews, instead focusing on Republican news outlets and campaign rallies.

Hillary Clinton/Russ Feingold: 432 (54.7%)
Sarah Palin/Tim Pawlenty: 126 (43.9%)

2016: Clinton Presides over the End of the GOP
Hillary Clinton/Russ Feingold: 441 (56.5%)
Rick Perry/Lindsey Graham: 97 (41.8%)
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #5349 on: June 08, 2016, 06:59:07 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2016, 07:27:40 PM by L.D. Smith »

1976 vs 2012

Part I: "Third Term?"



The Incumbent/Establishment
The Insurgent
The Leftist Combo
The Conservative Combo

Part II



The Outsider Nominees Win
ABC/#NeverTrump To The Max
Carter +#NeverTrump
ABC + Trump
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