IL-PPP: Walker +5

[RogueBeaver]

23% to Trump's 18%, Jeb's 11%. Everyone else in single digits. Hillary crushes Sanders 60-23%.

[Mr. Morden]

Dems

Clinton 60%
Sanders 23%
O'Malley 4%
Webb 3%
Chafee 1%

GOP

Walker 23%
Trump 18%
Bush 11%
Christie 8%
Carson 7%
Rubio 6%
Huckabee 5%
Paul 5%
Cruz 4%
Fiorina 3%
Jindal 2%
Santorum 2%
Graham 1%
Kasich 1%
Perry 1%
Gilmore 0%
Pataki 0%

23% of Republicans said that they agreed with Trump's comments about McCain, while 52% disagreed.

[Mr. Morden]

On the GOP side, who leads among...?

moderates: Trump
somewhat conservative: Walker
very conservative: Walker
age 18-45: Trump
age 46-65: Walker
age 65+: Walker

fav/unfav % among their own party for the top 3 Republicans:

Walker 64/15% for +49%
Bush 39/36% for +3%
Trump 44/43% for +1%

[Torie]

What does one make of moderates favoring Trump over Bush? Is it just due to name recognition of Trump vis a vis the others, other than Bush, as to whom it suggests a personal disaffection with him at the moment, and thus a desire to seek out alternatives?

[Mr. Morden]

What does one make of moderates favoring Trump over Bush? Is it just due to name recognition of Trump vis a vis the others, other than Bush, as to whom it suggests a personal disaffection with him at the moment, and thus a desire to seek out alternatives?

I do think Trump does better with "low information voters" who don't know that many of the other candidates and are stuck with the familiar names.  In the case of ideology though, he seems to do about equally well across the ideological spectrum within the GOP.  But Walker does better with "conservatives" than "moderates", hence this result.

This is something of a tangent, but I don't suppose you've read Ross Douthat's blog post on trying to explain the appeal of Trump?:

http://douthat.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/07/28/the-meanings-of-trump/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body

[Torie]

My focus was why Trump was doing better than Bush with moderates, when Bush's name is equally well known. I think I scanned the article you linked before but thanks. I think part of the Trump thing, is that some folks appreciate what he is saying, and enjoy his outrageous, pot stirring way of doing it, and thus saying they support him now, is sort of just expressing the pleasure, in a naughty sort of way. Will many of them actually vote for him when push comes to shove, and it's time to get serious, rather than just express a feeling to a pollster? I think not.

Unless, Trump miraculously starts demonstrating that he actually has the qualities to make a good president, with the judgment and knowledge base, and that the clown car act is only a veneer, underneath which is a statesman. I don't expect to see that happening myself. Underneath Trump's clown veneer, is well - a real clown.

[Mehmentum]

What does one make of moderates favoring Trump over Bush? Is it just due to name recognition of Trump vis a vis the others, other than Bush, as to whom it suggests a personal disaffection with him at the moment, and thus a desire to seek out alternatives?

Well, Bush has a 36% Favorable, 30% Unfavorable rating among Republican moderates.  He's in positive territory, but its definitely a lackluster performance.  Many of his competitors have better ratings among moderates (including Walker and Rubio).

Meanwhile Trump has a 35% Favorable, 54% Unfavorable rating among the same group.  His favorability is much better among conservatives, but his vote share doesn't go up.  This seems to support the idea that Trump is winning low information voters.

[Eraserhead]

60%-23% isn't that impressive considering this is Hillary's home state.

[Mr. Morden]

60%-23% isn't that impressive considering this is Hillary's home state.

There's also the usual racial gap, in which Sanders's support is overwhelmingly white.  He can only do so well in states with a non-negligible # of blacks.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Illinois President by Public Policy Polling on 2015-07-21

Summary:

Clinton:	60%
Sanders:	23%
Other:	9%
Undecided:	8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Illinois President by Public Policy Polling on 2015-07-21

Summary:

Walker:	23%
Trump:	18%
Bush:	11%
Christie:	8%
Carson:	7%
Rubio:	6%
Other:	24%
Undecided:	3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details