How do you think the debate next week will turn out?

[bballrox4717]

Here's how I'm calling it:

Winners

Donald Trump: The mere fact that he is center stage is a gigantic victory alone for Trump. This isn't even mentioning that there are a large number of people expecting Trump to crash and burn once he engages with "smarter and better politicians" like Bush. I think these people are dreaming. Trump has been waiting for a moment in the spotlight like this, and I don't think he'll blow it. Whatever he does or says is going to get major airtime, and I think any candidate who tries to engage or attack him is going to come across as ridiculous.

Marco Rubio: How Rubio continues to be underrated is beyond me. This is the guy who has by far the most room for growth according to polls, is one of the most charismatic politicians in the field, and is currently below the radar while remaining a serious candidate. He get nothing but rave reviews from donors, and probably won't be attacked as aggressively as Walker, Bush, or Trump. I don't think he blows an opportunity to volt back on top of the field.

John Kasich: Like Trump, his mere inclusion in the field is a victory, and he's going to be able to advance a common sense, moderate agenda without being attacked like Bush.

Neutral

Jeb Bush: He's going to get hit, and hit hard, but I think he's a good enough politician to pivot from these attacks. There are too many candidates on stage for the attacks on him to dominate the debate, and Trump's sucking of oxygen probably helps as well. He won't lose it, but I don't think he'll be able to dominate the conversation either.

Rand Paul: I don't think he'll be hit as hard as people are saying, and the one person who will hit him hard (Christie) is pretty universally hated by Republicans right now. He'll get his message out, but it won't make the airwaves vibrate as much as he wants it too.

Ted Cruz: I think he'll show off his debate skills on stage, but Trump there he's going to sound like a parrot. I just don't think there's much of a strategy for Cruz except wait for Trump to fall. If Trump crashes, he'll be a winner of the debate for sure.

Losers

Mike Huckabee: I'm going to be honest, I just don't think he's a serious candidate like he was in 2008. There's no room for him with the other conservative candidates, and he has a serious pandering problem. He probably goes all out and looks as bad as Rick Perry in 2012.

Ben Carson: Another candidate with a Trump problem.

Chris Christie: As I said, he's going to go after Rand Paul too hard and make himself look bad. Voters don't like him, they don't care what he has to say anymore, and he's going to come across as all of the worst excesses of the Bush administration rolled into one. I doubt he's even in the next debate.

Scott Walker: The biggest loser of the debate. Trump and Bush are going to go after him hard, and I don't think he takes it well. He's too small and too inexperienced for the national stage, and will likely have a Pawlenty moment on stage.

Polling Order After Debate

1. Trump: 23%
2. Bush: 18%
3. Rubio: 12%
4. Walker: 10%
5. Kasich: 8%
6. Cruz: 6%
7. Paul: 5%
8. Huckabee: 3%
9. Perry: 2%
10. Carson: 2%
11. Christie: 2%
12. Fiorina: 1%
13. Santorum: 1%
14. Graham: 1%
15. Jindal: 1%
16: Pataki: 0%
17: Gilmore 0%

[Stranger in a strange land]

One thing to keep in mind is podium position which is likely to be determined by poll position. The guys in the center are seen as the most important subliminally and will also likely get the most airtime. Here is an approximation....


Kasich   Carson   Huckabee   Rubio   Bush   Trump   Walker      Paul      Cruz      Christie

FTFY

[Torie]

Trump just said he would play nice. Smart move I think. He needs to show another dimension of himself, or try to. That his tough guy act is for show, and that he can turn it on or off as the occasion prudentially dictates. He does that, and he will be the debate winner, assuming he can project some facility with the issues.

[Likely Voter]

Trump is not doing any prep so expect him to pretty much do exactly what he has been doing in interviews. Simplistic answers and fuzzy specifics and lots of scapegoating of foreigners. I dont think he will attack any other candidates unless they attack him, and then he will let it fly.

[ElectionsGuy]

Trump, Carson, and Huckabee go down in support. Paul, Cruz, and Walker go up. Everybody else stays the same.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Trump is not doing any prep so expect him to pretty much do exactly what he has been doing in interviews. Simplistic answers and fuzzy specifics and lots of scapegoating of foreigners. I dont think he will attack any other candidates unless they attack him, and then he will let it fly.

Attacking Trump might be a smart move for certain candidates. I'm thinking Kasich has the most to gain.

[Mr. Morden]

This John Weaver (a Kasich advisor) quote is a few days old, but probably sums up how the non-Trump candidates are approaching this debate:

https://twitter.com/JWGOP/status/625810551243825152

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