Australian DD Election Jan/Feb 2010

[Lord of the Dome]

How would the Rudd government have fared in an early 2010 election if they had taken up the Double Dissolution trigger they had been delivered by the blocking of the ETS in early December 2009. Although some of the polling prowess of earlier times had begun to fall away the first newspoll released after the legislation was blocked showed Labor leading 56-44 on the TPP. Would an election fought on the ETS have eroded this support significantly or would Labor have been able to maintain/increase its majority?

Furthermore, had Labor retained government with a sizable majority would Abbott (who had risen to power in order to block the ETS) have maintained his position as Liberal leader?

[Phony Moderate]

Labor with a somewhat reduced majority. That was really the ALP's Callaghan '78 moment.

[AussieLaborite]

Labor victory but with a small majority of 2 to 8.