Put a Rating on the US Senate for 2016 - Summer 2015

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean R. As I see it now, the D's need at least 2 of NH, OH, PA, FL. Maybe all four, depending on the outcomes of the presidential race and the Nevada Senate race. And, that assumes that they take the must-wins of IL and WI. That's more unlikely than likely, so I think its leaning Republican.

I'll do another one of these polls a year from now to see how much it has changed.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Likely R.  It could go D in a big wave and I thought it was a toss-up/tilts R a few months ago, but it will be tough for Democrats to hold Nevada (I'm calling that one Leans R for now) and pick up Illinois, Wisconsin, Florida, and one or two of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New Hampshire (I've taken NC of the battleground completely).

[RFayette]

As long as Walker, Bush, or Rubio win the nomination in the end (or Paul if neocons warm up to him), then it's lean R, possibly even Likely R; Hillary's favorables are getting pretty sh*tty; had it not been for Trump, then it would be looking pretty good for the GOP now.  If Trump or some wacko manages to win, then it's Lean to Likely D, so I'd probably put it as Tossup overall.

[Maxwell]

Democrats need to win 4 seats to tie. They have one seat in the bag (Illinois) and one seat pretty close to in the bag (Wisconsin, though I think Johnson is more politically talented than Feingold), but the rest gets... kind of tricky. They have to defend one of their own seats (Nevada), one seat looks pretty good but isn't a given (Florida). Then there are a lot of Lean R seats like Ohio, Pennslyvania, New Hampshire where, in the right circumstances they should be competitive. Democrats have decent recruits in some of those seats, but those recruits are currently underperforming while incumbents are doing well. Toomey is leading in the polls, Portman is running laps around Strickland in fundraising, and despite Ayotte's weak position, her biggest opposition is currently not as interested as most would like. Democrats do have some interesting prospects they should probably explore in Arizona, Indiana, Missouri for wave insurance, but those states are probably 90-10 Republican, if they're lucky.

All in All, I'd say Lean R.

[Xing]

Lean R for now, though the Republican advantage is weak, and their edge in races like NH, OH, and PA are small. If one or two of those races begins to look more like a toss-up, I'd call control of the senate a toss-up.

[JerryArkansas]

Tossup at the moment, however Republicans have an edge in several of the races.  NH has no strong challenger, Ohio Strickland is doing bad in fundraising, and in PA, the Dem are primary their strongest nominee possible.  They may throw that race away if there is a bad bruising primary.  Florida could be competitive, but if Jolly is the nominee, it may be put off of the table.  Nevada has a very strong chance of going Republican, since they have the strongest nominee besides the governor.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup Pa, IL, WI & FL will come Dems way.

[smoltchanov]

Lean R for now. I easily see 2-seats gain for Democrats, may be - 3 seats gain, but - not 4. But everything may change...

[windjammer]

Lean Rep

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I don't like Toss-Up ratings, which seem a bit wimpish IMO; so I'll say Lean R (although closer to Tilt R than anything else). Kirk is completely dead in the water. Johnson can only survive if the presidential ticket wins Wisconsin with some vigour. Portman, Toomey and Ayotte are broadly favoured at this point in time (although we did the same thing about Mark Udall so don't take this as gospel). The Florida Democratic Party are ... themselves. I think whatsisface in North Carolina is pretty safe at this point in time, and although McCain is weak I think he'll hang on as well.

Conversely I do think the Democrats will hang on to both of their seats.

[MT Treasurer]

Lean R, but if the Democrats want to retake the Senate, they might focus on other states besides PA and OH. I am thinking of IN, AZ, etc.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Baron Hill and Kirkpatrick and Kander have virtually no chance. But, PPP does have hope for Dems, especially Pa, which have Toomey up by only 4.

[Brittain33]

I hate to say it, but toss-up. There are a small number of seats that tip easily to the Dems (IL, WI) but the playing field hasn't broadened enough to give them an edge if they win remaining competitive seats like PA while holding NV. The pattern we've seen in the last 4 elections biases me toward assuming a good D night. 

[Torie]

At least lean R, maybe close to likely R. The Dems are favored to pick up IL and WI of course, but NV is a tossup, so the Dems need 2.5 more seats (assuming a Dem wins the Presidency). That's a tough nut to crack. The Pub incumbents are all pretty strong, in PA, OH, AZ, NH, NC, etc.

[The Other Castro]

Toss-Up/Tilt R, and I believe that some states currently considered Likely or even Safe R will come into play at some point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At least lean R, maybe close to likely R. The Dems are favored to pick up IL and WI of course, but NV is a tossup, so the Dems need 2.5 more seats (assuming a Dem wins the Presidency). That's a tough nut to crack. The Pub incumbents are all pretty strong, in PA, OH, AZ, NH, NC, etc.

Sestak, Murphy, Strickland are very strong. CCM isnt.  If any out of those lose, it is her, who has trailed in most polls. But all of them can win

Net 3-5 seats with WI, IL& FL as LD
And MO, IN & AZ are Safe GOP

Tossup tilt GoP is right rating

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But he is down by 13 pts in the latest polls.

[Maxwell]

Once again, Kander is good wave insurance, and if Koster loses for Governor, I think he could run for Gov in 2020 if he performs well enough.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Portman or Toomey? Well we have different pts of view on that.

Dems wont go down to either one without a fight

[morgieb]

Probably a weak Lean R. Remember Udall and Braley imploded later in the cycle, so it's certainly not unwinnable for the Dems especially in a good year.

[Skye]

Leans R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably a weak Lean R. Remember Udall and Braley imploded later in the cycle, so it's certainly not unwinnable for the Dems especially in a good year.

As NV; FL, Pa and OH arent solidily R's and unwinnable for Dems; as PPP polls give dems hope.

Once primaries are over, fundraising abilities will greatly increase.

[SWE]

Somewhere between Toss up and Lean R. Went with Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R; as Sestak will overcome odds and beat Toomey; likewise Dems win FL, WI, IL&NV

[NewYorkExpress]

Republicans pick up Nevada...Democrats pick up Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire and Indiana decide the balance of power... and if I had to guess, Florida and Indiana flip, New Hampshire and Ohio are R holds (unless Portman is on the ticket)