Put a Rating on the US House - Summer 2015
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Poll
Question: Put a rating on control of the US House
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Toss-Up		  
#5
Lean R		  
#6
Likely R		  
#7
Safe R		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 48

Author Topic: Put a Rating on the US House - Summer 2015  (Read 1035 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: July 30, 2015, 09:12:58 PM »
Safe R. It would be Likely R if the Republicans didn't shore up so many extra seats in 2014. Taking 30 seats is a wave situation, and it means they have to win the popular vote massively. I only see that happening with a Donald Trump candidacy for President, which won't happen.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2015, 09:55:00 PM »
The Democrats will pick up quite a few seats, but the geography of House districts makes a Dem majority almost impossible.

They could win the popular national vote for the House though (or whatever you would call it)
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2015, 10:07:29 PM »
Safe R.  Geography makes a Democratic House majority virtually impossible for the foreseeable future.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2015, 10:45:21 PM »
If this were the summer of 2016 instead of 2015, I'd say Safe R. However, since we're over a year out, and we don't have any idea what kind of a year 2016 will be, Likely R is what I'd go with for now.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2015, 11:08:06 PM »
Oh Safe R for sure. But I will say, and this is obvious, the GOP doesn't really have many places to go to go up to (besides Collin Peterson in Minnesota, and some of those even districts on the West Coast).
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CrabCake
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« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2015, 05:40:21 AM »
Likely R, and I'm only hedging my bets in case some kind of bonkers scandal erupts or the Presidential campaign goes horrendously for Republicans.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2015, 11:48:41 AM »
Likely R at this point. But if there is a duplicate map of 2012; where House almost went Dem, once the Dems hit 205, their target, anything is possible😍
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #7 on: August 10, 2015, 03:06:30 PM »
Safe R... though the Democrats easily could get to 200-210 seats with a mediocre/bad GOP Presidential nominee (Trump, Carson, Huckabee) and some legwork in R+1 and R+2 seats.
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PAK Man
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« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2015, 03:14:40 PM »
I'm going to play devil's advocate and say Likely R. I don't expect Democrats to retake the House at all, but strange things can happen in politics.
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Bigby
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« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2015, 04:35:02 PM »
Likely R. It depends on the GOP Presidential nominee and how the House primaries go. However, with the Democrats having trouble finding House nominees and the GOP advantage in redistricting, it will probably be Safe R in terms of who controls the chamber.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #10 on: August 10, 2015, 05:26:46 PM »
Safe R. Boehner, McCarthy, Labador or Scalise will be speaker again. Pelosi won't resign until 2020.
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Figueira
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« Reply #11 on: August 10, 2015, 06:50:07 PM »
Likely R, and that's a bit optimistic for the Democrats.
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