2016: A Total Mess

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Priebus: Iowa, with 30 delegates!

Surrogate: Iowa, proud to be the first in the nation caucus (...) Iowa casts 10 votes for Walker, 9 for Carson, 6 for Kasich, and 5 for Trump!

Day: Kasich 267, Trump 257, Walker 189, Carson 135!

Priebus: Kansas, with 40 delegates!

Surrogate: Kansas, a truly conservative state (...) Kansas casts 20 votes for Carson, 14 for Trump, and 6 for Walker!

Day: Trump 271, Kasich 267, Walker 195, Carson 155!

Priebus: Kentucky, with 45 delegates!

Surrogate: Kentucky, the proud home of Rand Paul (...) Kentucky casts all 45 votes for Carson!

Day: Trump 271, Kasich 267, Carson 200, Walker 195!

Priebus: Louisiana, with 46 delegates!

Surrogate: Louisiana, where the people wish Hurricanes didn't exist (...) Louisiana casts 15 votes for Trump, 13 for Carson, 9 for Walker and Kasich!

Day: Trump 286, Kasich 276, Carson 213, Walker 204!

Priebus: Maine, with 24 delegates!

Surrogate: Maine, the highlight of the east coast (...) Maine casts 13 votes for Kasich, 6 for Trump, 5 for Carson!

Day: Trump 292, Kasich 289, Carson 218, Walker 204!

Priebus: Maryland, with 38 delegates!

Surrogate: Maryland, a state that is just too democratic (...) Maryland casts all 38 votes for Carson!

Day: Trump 292, Kasich 289, Carson 256, Walker 204!

Priebus: Massachusetts, with 45 delegates!

Surrogate: Massachusetts, a proud tourist destination (...) Massachusetts casts all 45 votes for Kasich!

Day: Kasich 334, Trump 292, Carson 256, Walker 204!

Priebus: Goodbye, Trump! Michigan, with 59 delegates!

Surrogate: Michigan, proud home to the great lakes (...) Michigan casts 19 votes for Walker, 17 for Kasich, 13 for Trump, and 10 for Carson!

Day: Kasich 351, Trump 305, Carson 266, Walker 223!

Priebus: Minnesota, with 38 delegates!

Surrogate: Minnesota, home of more than 10,000 lakes (...) Minnesota casts all 38 votes for Kasich (see Idaho)!

Day: Kasich 389, Trump 305, Carson 266, Walker 223!

Priebus: Mississippi, with 39 delegates!

Surrogate: Mississippi, proud to be a southern state (...) Missisissippi casts 19 votes for Trump, 14 for Carson, and 6 for Walker!

Day: Kasich 389, Trump 324, Carson 280, Walker 229!

Priebus: Missouri, with 52 delegates!

Surrogate: Missouri, which will solidly reelect Senator Blunt (...) Missouri casts 18 votes for Carson, 17 for Walker, 12 for Trump, and 5 for Kasich!

Day: Kasich 394, Trump 336, Carson 298, Walker 246!

Priebus: Montana, with 27 delegates!

Surrogate: Montana, the state that deeply treasures the 2nd amendment (...) Montana casts all 27 votes for Carson!

Day: Kasich 394, Trump 336, Carson 325, Walker 246!

Priebus: Nebraska, with 30 delegates!

Surrogate: Nebraska, the state that is going to kick Brad Ashford out of office (...) Nebraska casts 8 votes for Carson and Trump, 7 for Walker and Kasich!

Day: Kasich 401, Trump 344, Carson 333, Walker 253!

Priebus: Nevada, with 30 delegates!

Surrogate: Nevada, the state that couldn't be more glad about Harry Reid's retirement (...) Nevada casts 15 votes for Kasich, 12 for Walker, 2 for Trump, and 1 for Carson!

Day: Kasich 416, Trump 346, Carson 334, Walker 265!

Priebus: New Hampshire, with 23 delegates!

Surrogate: New Hampshire, proud to be the first in the nation primary state (...) New Hampshire casts 10 votes for Kasich, 5 for Walker and Trump, 3 for Carson!

Day: Kasich 426, Trump 351, Carson 337, Walker 270!

Priebus: New Jersey, with 51 delegates!

Surrogate: New Jersey, proud home of Chris Christie (...) New Jersey casts all 51 votes for Trump!

Day: Kasich 426, Trump 402, Carson 337, Walker 270!

Priebus: New Mexico, with 24 delegates!

Surrogate: New Mexico, which is ready to separate itself from the democratic party (...) New Mexico casts 8 votes for Kasich, 6 for Carson, 5 for Walker and Trump!

Day: Kasich 434, Trump 407, Carson 343, Walker 275!

Priebus: New York, with 95 delegates!

Surrogate: New York, the state that wishes it wasn't the home of Hillary Clinton (...) New York casts all 95 votes for Trump!

Day: Trump 502, Kasich 434, Carson 343, Walker 275!

Trump Delegates:

It's a Trump revolution today!
It's a Trump revolution today!
Priebus you suck, we're going to win!
It's a trump revolution today!
We're not low energy, we're not lib...

Priebus: Enough! Your behavior is despicable!

Trump Delegates: Whatever, whiny baby!

Priebus: This is not funny!

*Trump delegates laugh*

Trump delegates: It's a trump revo....

Priebus: North Carolina, with 72 delegates!

Surrogate: North Carolina, a proud swing state (...) North Carolina casts 33 votes for Kasich, 20 for Walker, 17 for Carson, 2 for Trump!

Day: Trump 504, Kasich 467, Carson 360, Walker 295!

[NeverAgain]

GO TRUMP!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Priebus: North Dakota, with 28 delegates!

Surrogate: North Dakota, the state that is truly sorry for electing Heidi Heitkamp in 2012 (...) North Dakota casts 9 votes for Walker, 7 for Carson, 6 for Kasich and Trump!

Day: Trump 510, Kasich 473, Carson 367, Walker 304!

Priebus: The Northern Mariana Islands, with 9 delegates!

Surrogate: The Northern Marianas, the greatest territory (...) The Northern Mariana Islands casts 3 votes for Walker, 2 for all other candidates!

Day: Trump 512, Kasich 475, Carson 369, Walker 307!

Priebus: Ohio, with 66 delegates!

Surrogate: Ohio, proud to be a swing state (...) Ohio casts all 66 votes for Kasich!

Day: Kasich 541, Trump 512, Carson 369, Walker 307!

Priebus: Thank you, Ohio! Oklahoma, with 43 delegates!

Surrogate: Oklahoma, the state that has truly eliminated the democratic party (...) Oklahoma casts 12 votes for Trump and Kasich, 10 for Carson, 9 for Walker!

Day: Kasich 553, Trump 524, Carson 379, Walker 316!

Priebus: Oregon, with 28 delegates!

Surrogate: Oregon, the state that will finally vote republican this year (...) Oregon casts 9 votes for Kasich, 7 for Carson, 6 for Walker and Trump!

Day: Kasich 562, Trump 530, Carson 386, Walker 322!

Priebus: Pennsylvania, with 71 delegates!

Surrogate: Pennsylvania, which really is a swing state (...) Pennsylvania casts 25 votes for Kasich, 21 for Walker, 18 for Trump, 7 for Carson!

Day: Kasich 587, Trump 548, Carson 393, Walker 343!

Priebus: Puerto Rico, with 23 delegates!

Surrogate: Puerto Rico, which will soon be a state (...) Puerto Rico casts 9 votes for Kasich, 6 for Carson, 5 for Walker, 3 for Trump!

Day: Kasich 596, Trump 551, Carson 399, Walker 348!

Priebus: Rhode Island, with 19 delegates!

Surrogate: Rhode Island, a state that is just too liberal (...) Rhode Island casts 6 votes for Kasich, 5 for Walker and Trump, 3 for Carson!

Day: Kasich 602, Trump 556, Carson 402, Walker 353!

Priebus: South Carolina, with 50 delegates!

Surrogate: South Carolina, proud to be the first in the south primary state (...) South Carolina casts 24 votes for Walker, 23 for Carson, 3 for Kasich!

Day: Kasich 605, Trump 556, Carson 425, Walker 377!

Priebus: South Dakota, with 29 delegates!

Surrogate: South Dakota, an amazing rural state (...) South Dakota casts 9 votes for Walker, 7 for Carson and Trump, 6 for Kasich!

Day: Kasich 611, Trump 563, Carson 432, Walker 386!

Priebus: Tennessee, with 58 delegates!

Surrogate: Tennessee, a proud southern state (...) Tennessee casts 22 votes for Kasich, 15 for Carson, 12 for Trump, 9 for Walker!

Day: Kasich 633, Trump 575, Carson 447, Walker 395!

Priebus: Texas, with 155 delegates!

Surrogate: Texas, a state that has truly decimated the democratic party (...) Texas casts 49 votes for Trump, 46 for Kasich, 39 for Carson, 21 for Walker!

Day: Kasich 679, Trump 624, Carson 486, Walker 416!

Priebus: Utah, with 40 delegates!

Surrogate: Utah, a truly conservative state (...) Utah casts all 40 votes for Carson!

Day: Kasich 679, Trump 624, Carson 526, Walker 416!

Priebus: Vermont, with 16 delegates!

Surrogate: Vermont, a state that really needs more republicans (...) Vermont casts all 16 votes for Kasich!

Day: Kasich 695, Trump 624, Carson 526, Walker 416!

Priebus: The Virgin Islands, with 9 delegates!

Surrogate: The Virgin Islands, a great territory (...) The Virgin Islands casts 3 votes for Carson, 2 for all other candidates!

Day: Kasich 697, Trump 626, Carson 529, Walker 418!

Priebus: Virginia, with 49 delegates!

Surrogate: Virginia, a great coastal state (...) Virginia casts all 49 votes for Kasich!

Day: Kasich 746, Trump 626, Carson 529, Walker 418!

Priebus: Washington State, with 44 delegates!

Surrogate: Washington State, which is far too liberal (...) Washington State casts 28 votes for Kasich and 16 for Walker!

Day: Kasich 774, Trump 626, Carson 529, Walker 434!

Priebus: West Virginia, with 34 delegates!

Surrogate: West Virginia, which will elect a republican governor this year (...) West Virginia casts all 34 votes for Trump!

Day: Kasich 774, Trump 660, Carson 529, Walker 434!

Priebus: Wisconsin, with 42 delegates!

Surrogate: Wisconsin, the state that has been deeply blessed with a great governor in Scott Walker (...) Wisconsin casts all 42 votes for Walker!

Day: Kasich 774, Trump 660, Carson 529, Walker 476!

Priebus: And Wyoming, with 29 delegates!

Surrogate: Wyoming, proud to be a conservative state (...) Wyoming casts 9 votes for Carson and Walker, 7 for Trump, 4 for Kasich!

Day: Kasich 777, Trump 666, Carson 537, Walker 485!

(Delegate counts of all but Walker adjusted down by one here to compensate for a small math error I made somewhere)

Priebus: No one has reached the 1,233 votes needed for nomination. We will resume this convention tomorrow. Good Night!

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

omf trump with 666 hahahaha XD

[Bigby]

Brokered Convention again? Not a big surprise.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Brokered Convention again? Not a big surprise.

Yep. First Ballot is merely a formality.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I love the comments that the surrogates make when they announce their state.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republican Convention - July 18-21 - July 21

Priebus: "All right. Time to continue the nomination process. Are there any additional nominations for the office of president?"

*silence*

Priebus: Then, let us continue with the second ballot. All delegates are released from any pledges. Ballots are now being distributed.

-------------

Day: Kasich 973, Carson 600, Walker 500, Trump 392!

Priebus: Trump is eliminated! On to the 3rd ballot!

---------------

Day: Kasich 999, Carson 770, Walker 690, 6 Abstain!

Priebus: Walker is eliminated! On to the 4th and final ballot!

---------------

Day: Carson 1,267, Kasich 1,186, 12 Abstain!

Priebus: Well, there we have it. Ben Carson is the official nominee of the republican party for the office of President of the United States!

*cheering*

Priebus: Now, on to the Vice Presidential Nomination, please. We'll attempt to nominate Ms. Rice by acclamation. All in favor?

*about 35% of the delegates yell "Aye!"*

Priebus: Clearly not a majority, I see. Well, we'll go to a full ballot then. You can vote for either Martinez, Rice, Sandoval, or Brewer. Ballots are now being distributed.

Day: Martinez 1,105, Rice 855, Sandoval 420, Brewer 85!

Priebus: Not a majority. Are there any additional nominations for vice president?

*Donald Trump is quickly nominated for Vice President*

Priebus: Anyone else?

*Paul Ryan is quickly nominated for Vice President*

Priebus: Anyone else?

*silence*

Priebus: Then, let a 2nd ballot between Martinez, Rice, Sandoval, Brewer, Trump, and Ryan begin!

----------------

Day: Martinez 750, Ryan 600, Trump 450, Rice 350, Sandoval 250, Brewer 65!

Priebus: Brewer and Sandoval are eliminated! On to the 3rd ballot!

-------------

Day: Martinez 850, Ryan 700, Trump 505, Rice 410!

Priebus: Rice is eliminated! On to the 4th ballot!

------------

Day: Martinez 1,000, Ryan 850, Trump 605, 10 Abstain!

Priebus: Trump is eliminated! On to the 5th and final ballot!

------------

Day: Martinez 1,100, Ryan 1,100, 265 Abstain!

Priebus: Well, what a predicament we have here! An exact tie! Well, poll the delegates again then!

------------

Day: Martinez 1,099, Ryan 1,099, 267 Abstain!

Priebus: Gah! Very well then. As party chairman, I hereby declare that the nominee for vice president will be selected randomly.

*Priebus grabs a large hat and some pieces of paper and begins to write*

Priebus: There are four slips in this hat that say Ryan, and four that say Martinez. Now, to enhance fairness: Blindfold, please!

*one of the guards blindfolds Priebus*

*Priebus reaches into the hat, pulls out a slip of paper, then drops the hat*

*the guard unblindfolds Priebus*

Priebus: And the nominee for Vice President of the United States is......Susana Martinez!

*cheering*

---------------------------


The General Election between Biden/Manchin, Carson/Martinez, and Chafee/Ventura has now begun!

[Bigby]

This will be interesting to say the least.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Presidential Polling - August 1, 2016

Biden: 247
Carson: 191
Toss-Up: 100

National Poll

Biden: 41%
Carson: 38%
Chafee: 8%
Others: 1%
Undecided: 12%

Two-Way National

Biden: 45%
Carson: 41%
Undecided: 14%

President Obama Approval Rating

Disapprove: 50%
Approve: 47%

Biden begins with the advantage as we enter the general election. Carson appears to have the same problem as Romney when it comes to actually winning this thing - he can win 191 electoral votes without much trouble, but needs to win most of the battlegrounds if he is to win the election. Carson knows this, and is already putting a large amount of time and money into Pennsylvania, a clear difference from McCain and Romney who treated the state as a lost cause until October. However, Biden's regional appeal is keeping him significantly ahead in Pennsylvania for the moment.

What's surprising everyone so far is Chafee's poll numbers. After past libertarian nominees struggled to even reach 1% in the polls, Chafee is polling at 8%, roughly halfway to the 15% level he needs to be at for debate inclusion in October. His strong message of independence has made the libertarian party seem more sane and has attracted moderates from both sides.

Chafee's highest numbers are in Rhode Island, where he is polling at 25%, taking the usually safe D state into only Likely D territory. He is polling in double digits in his vice presidential candidate's home state of Minnesota along with Massachusetts, New Mexico, Colorado, and New Hampshire, and will be on the ballot in every state except Oklahoma.

Nevada Poll

Biden: 44%
Carson: 41%
Chafee: 8%

Colorado Poll

Biden: 40%
Carson: 37%
Chafee: 11%

Iowa Poll

Carson: 42%
Biden: 42%
Chafee: 7%

Ohio Poll

Biden: 44%
Carson: 42%
Chafee: 6%

Virginia Poll

Biden: 44%
Carson: 40%
Chafee: 6%

North Carolina Poll

Biden: 42%
Carson: 41%
Chafee: 8%

Florida Poll

Biden: 42%
Carson: 42%
Chafee: 7%

New Hampshire Poll

Biden: 39%
Carson: 36%
Chafee: 13%

Arizona Poll

Carson: 43%
Biden: 36%
Chafee: 9%

Georgia Poll

Carson: 46%
Biden: 40%
Chafee: 6%

NE-2 Poll

Carson: 48%
Biden: 40%
Chafee: 5%

Wisconsin Poll

Biden: 46%
Carson: 39%
Chafee: 8%

Pennsylvania Poll

Biden: 44%
Carson: 38%
Chafee: 8%

ME-2 Poll

Biden: 44%
Carson: 36%
Chafee: 9%

Oregon Poll

Biden: 48%
Carson: 37%
Chafee: 8%

New Mexico Poll

Biden: 45%
Carson: 35%
Chafee: 12%

Missouri Poll

Carson: 48%
Biden: 38%
Chafee: 7%

Illinois Poll

Biden: 49%
Carson: 37%
Chafee: 7%

Minnesota Poll

Biden: 44%
Carson: 33%
Chafee: 15%

Michigan Poll

Biden: 49%
Carson: 37%
Chafee: 8%

Rhode Island Poll

Biden: 39%
Carson: 28%
Chafee: 25%

Massachusetts Poll

Biden: 49%
Carson: 31%
Chafee: 13%

[Kingpoleon]

Is there a particular reason Chafee-Ventura isn't taking 5:2 Biden-Carson like you'd expect in Minnesota?

Maybe Tim Penny really popular with Republicans in a way Ventura never was in Minnesota. It's your home state, but I'd think Carson-Martinez would appeal there fairly well. Also, New Hampshire's sexism should really be helping if the Carson campaign send Martinez there.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is there a particular reason Chafee-Ventura isn't taking 5:2 Biden-Carson like you'd expect in Minnesota?

Maybe Tim Penny really popular with Republicans in a way Ventura never was in Minnesota. It's your home state, but I'd think Carson-Martinez would appeal there fairly well. Also, New Hampshire's sexism should really be helping if the Carson campaign send Martinez there.

I don't buy in to the NH sexism theory, so it won't be taken into account here. And my home state wouldn't take too kindly to someone who literally supports abolishing medicare.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Key Senate Primaries

Alaska Senate (R)

Lisa Murkowski (inc.) - 55.4%✔
Sarah Palin - 44%
Others - 0.6%

Arizona Senate (R)

John McCain (inc.) - 53.8%✔
Kelly Ward - 46.2%

California Senate (Jungle)

Kamala Harris (D) - 34.6%✔
Rocky Chavez (R) - 21.2%✔
Loretta Sanchez (D) - 20.4%
Tom Del Bacarro (R) - 13.5%
Duf Sundheim (R) - 7%
Others - 3.3%

Florida Senate (D)

Alan Grayson - 49.4%✔
Patrick Murphy - 47%
Others - 3.6%

Florida Senate (R)

David Jolly - 22.7%✔
Curt Clawson - 20%
Carlos Lopez-Cantera - 18.4%
Ron DeSantis - 15.1%
Bill McCollum - 13.1%
Todd Wilcox - 9%
Others - 1.7%

Indiana Senate (R)

Marlin Stutzman - 37%✔
Todd Young - 32%
Eric Holcomb - 28%
Others - 3%

Maryland Senate (D)

Donna Edwards - 35%✔
Elijah Cummings - 33.6%
Chris Van Hollen - 27.7%
Others - 3.7%

North Carolina Senate (D)

Primary:

Deborah Ross - 39.7%✔
Chris Rey - 31.3%✔
Cal Cummingham - 18%
Kevin Griffin - 11%

Runoff:

Deborah Ross - 52.1%✔
Chris Rey - 47.9%

Pennsylvania Senate (D)

John Fetterman - 35.4%✔
Joe Sestak - 35.1%
Katie McGinty - 29.5%

Utah Senate (R)

Jason Chaffetz - 51.4%✔
Mike Lee (inc.) - 48.6%

Key Gubernatorial Primaries

Missouri Governor (R)

John Brunner - 26.1%✔
Catherine Hanaway - 23.2%
Eric Grietens - 22.1%
Peter Kinder - 19%
Bob Dixon - 7.4%
Others - 2.2%

Montana Governor (R)

Brad Johnson - 34.2%✔
Greg Gianforte - 30.3%
Mark Perea - 29.9%
Others - 5.6%

New Hampshire Governor (D)

Stefany Shaheen - 52%✔
Colin Van Ostern - 48%

New Hampshire Governor (R)

Chris Sununu - 54.3%✔
Jeb Bradley - 45.7%

North Dakota Governor (R)

Drew Wrigley - 51.5%✔
Wayne Stenehjem - 48.5%

Oregon Governor (D)

Kate Brown - 54.6%✔
Tina Kotek - 45.4%

Vermont Governor (D)

Shap Smith - 41%✔
Doug Racine - 35%
Matt Dunne - 21%
Others - 3%

West Virginia Governor (D)

Jeff Kessler - 52.9%✔
Jim Justice - 47.1%

[Bigby]

Palin ran against Murowski?

Thank Jesus she lost.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2015 Gubernatorial Results

KY: 48-47 Conway
LA Runoff: 54-46 Vitter
MS: 64-34 Bryant


2016 Gubernatorial Race Ratings

Safe R

UT: Gov. Gary Herbert (R) unopposed
ND: Lt. Gov. Drew Wrigley (R) vs. Attorney Tim Purdon (D)

Likely R

WV: State Sen. Bill Cole (R) vs. State Sen. Jeff Kessler (D)

Lean R

IN: Gov. Mike Pence (R) vs. 2012 Nominee John Gregg (D)

Toss-Up

MT: Fmr. Sec. of State Brad Johnson (R) vs. Gov. Steve Bullock (D)
NC: Gov. Pat McCrory (R) vs. Attorney General Roy Cooper (D)
MO: Businessman John Brunner (R) vs. Attorney General Chris Koster (D)
NH: Executive Councilor Chris Sununu (R) vs. City Councilor Stefany Shaheen (D)
VT: Lt. Gov. Phil Scott (R) vs. State House Speaker Shap Smith (D)

Lean D

None

Likely D

WA: U.S. Rep. Jaime Beutler (R) vs. Gov. Jay Inslee (D)
DE: State Sen. Colin Bonini (R) vs. U.S. Rep. John Carney (D)

Safe D

OR Special: Perennial Candidate Allen Alley (R) vs. Gov. Kate Brown (D)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2016 Senate Ratings

Safe R

AL: Sen. Richard Shelby (R) vs. 2014 Gubernatorial Nominee Parker Griffith (D)
AK: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) vs. State Sen. Dennis Egan (D)
AR: Sen. John Boozman (R) vs. Attorney Connor Eldridge (D)
FL: Rep. David Jolly (R) vs. Rep. Alan Grayson (D)
GA: Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) vs. State Rep. Spencer Frye (D)
ID: Sen. Mike Crapo (R) unopposed
IA: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) vs. Fmr. State Rep. Bob Krause (D)
KS: Sen. Jerry Moran (R) vs. 2014 KS-2 Nominee Margie Wakefield (D)
KY: Sen. Rand Paul (R) vs. Mayor Greg Fischer (D)
ND: Sen. John Hoeven (R) unopposed
OK: Sen. James Lankford (R) vs. 2014 Special Senate Nominee Constance Johnson (D)
SC: Sen. Tim Scott (R) vs. 2014 Special Senate Nominee Joyce Dickerson (D)
SD: Sen. John Thune (R) vs. State Sen. Billie Sutton (D)
UT: Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R) vs. Mayor Ben McAdams (D)


Likely R

LA: Appointed Sen. Charles Boustany (R) vs. Rep. Jeff Landry (R) vs. State Treasurer John Kennedy (R) vs. State Rep. Karen Peterson (D)
AZ: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
MO: Sen. Roy Blunt (R) vs. SOS Jason Kander (D)
NC: Sen. Richard Burr (R) vs. Fmr. State Rep. Deborah Ross (D)

Lean R

IN: Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R) vs. Fmr. Rep. Baron Hill (D)
PA: Sen. Pat Toomey (R) vs. Mayor John Fetterman (D)
OH: Sen. Rob Portman (R) vs. Fmr. Gov. Ted Strickland (D)

Toss-Up

NV: Rep. Joe Heck (R) vs. Fmr. Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D)
NH: Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) vs. Gov. Maggie Hassan (D)

Lean D

IL: Sen. Mark Kirk (R) vs. Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D)
WI: Sen. Ron Johnson (R) vs. Fmr. Sen. Russ Feingold (D)

Likely D

MD: Lt. Gov. Boyd Rutherford (R) vs. Rep. Donna Edwards (D)
WA: State Sen. Andy Hill (R) vs. Sen. Patty Murray (D)

Safe D

CA: State Assemblyman Rocky Chavez (R) vs. State Attorney General Kamala Harris (D)
CO: 2012 CO-5 Candidate Robert Blaha (R) vs. Sen. Michael Bennet (D)
CT: CNBC Reporter Larry Kudlow (R) vs. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D)
HI: Sen. Brian Schatz (D) unopposed
NY: 2014 Gubernatorial Nominee Rob Astorino (R) vs. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D)
OR: 2014 Senate Nominee Monica Wehby (R) vs. Sen. Ron Wyden (D)
VT: Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) vs. 2012 Gubernatorial Nominee Randy Brock (R)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

August 2016

New DNC Chair Howard Dean announces the immediate replacement of three of the DNC vice-chairs. Raymond Buckley is replaced by Fmr. NH Gov. John Lynch. Donna Brazile is replaced by Fmr. Obama Strategist David Axelrod. Tulsi Gabbard is replaced by Washington Sen. Maria Cantwell. Maria Durazo and R.T. Rybak will keep their jobs for now.

Carson continues his fierce slog to win Pennsylvania, and it starts to work. Biden panics when a democratic poll shows him ahead only 42-39 in the state, with Chafee at 11%, and runs an ad highlighting the hard-to-believe parts of Carson's personal story. It fails to move the polls in his favor and is continually lambasted by the media for its obvious desperateness.

Chafee's poll numbers continue to trend upward, and he soon releases an internal showing him in second in his home state of Rhode Island, ahead of Carson and just 7 points behind Mr. Biden. He also cracks 20% in polls in his VP's home state of Minnesota. Both major party candidates prepare for the real possibility of Chafee reaching the 15% nationally that is needed for October debate inclusion.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

September 2016

Indiana Senate Candidate Marlin Stutzman (R) makes a perry-style gaffe during a debate when he fails to remember the final component of his platform in his closing statement, quickly turning the race into a Toss-Up. It is not to Stutzman's advantage that Baron Hill, while campaigning in conservative parts of Indiana, has recently been saying that he (Hill) is ideologically closer to Chafee than he is to Biden.

After excessive, unsuccessful pleas for the DNC to re-hire her, DWS lashes out at the entire democratic party, saying that they are even more unrepresentative of america's interests than the Republicans are. She says that Chafee is also part of this conspiracy against america's interests. She says that she will refuse to vote in the presidential election, and also says that if she wins re-election to her house seat, she will immediately resign it, as she plans to evacuate the U.S. and move to some foreign country - permantely - by the end of 2017.

The Presidential race has now shifted from a slight biden lead nationally to an exact tie, partially because of Chafee's increasing support and partially because Carson has proved to be a slightly better GE campaigner than Biden. Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Virginia have tightened significantly since August, with some polls showing Carson ahead by a point in these states.

At the end of the month, Chafee is running just two points behind Mr. Biden in Rhode Island in the RCP average. He is four points shy of second in Minnesota, and is at almost 20% in New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Massachusetts. He is polling in double digits in most states. On September 26, the commission on presidential debates announces that Chafee was found to be polling at an average of 14.2% nationally in the polls they analyzed, falling just short of the 15% inclusion threshold, meaning that the 1st debate and the vice presidential debate will be major party only. However, they remind the public that polls will be re-analyzed prior to the second and third debate, so it is perfectly possible for Chafee to earn inclusion eventually. Biden remains silent on the situation, but Chafee holds a set of joint rallies with Carson to lash out at the commission and demand a lower threshold for the sake of 'utter fairness to the american people'.

Next: End of September Polling Map

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Presidential Polling - September 30, 2016

Biden: 222
Carson: 191
Toss-Up: 125

National Poll

Biden: 37%
Carson: 37%
Chafee: 14%
Others: 1%
Undecided: 11%

Two-Way National

Biden: 48%
Carson: 43%
Undecided: 9%

President Obama Approval Rating

Disapprove: 50%
Approve: 47%

Biden ends the month of September in a conflicted position. Carson is in a much better position in the battleground states now, and Chafee's surging support has only made things worse for Biden. It does not help that Biden has been a less than stellar campaigner now that he can no longer use his trademark "rally against the dynasty" strategy.

The two-way polling clearly shows how Chafee has affected this race. If Chafee was not in the race, Biden would be a clear favorite to win the election. But Chafee has dragged down Biden more than he has dragged down Carson, and that may allow Carson to win the race. However, now that it looks like Chafee has a serious chance of winning his home state of Rhode Island - and who knows, maybe a couple other states beyond that, it is certainly possible that the election is thrown to Congress, especially if Chafee eventually earns debate inclusion, netting himself further visibility. If control of the senate ends up being democratic in January, it could mean our country will be lead by a Republican President - and a democratic vice president.

Nevada Poll

Biden: 41%
Carson: 41%
Chafee: 11%

Colorado Poll

Carson: 39%
Biden: 37%
Chafee: 15%

Iowa Poll

Carson: 39%
Biden: 39%
Chafee: 11%

Ohio Poll

Biden: 40%
Carson: 38%
Chafee: 12%

Virginia Poll

Biden: 41%
Carson: 37%
Chafee: 13%

North Carolina Poll

Carson: 38%
Biden: 35%
Chafee: 16%

Florida Poll

Biden: 38%
Carson: 38%
Chafee: 13%

New Hampshire Poll

Carson: 35%
Biden: 34%
Chafee: 19%

Arizona Poll

Carson: 42%
Biden: 34%
Chafee: 12%

Georgia Poll

Carson: 44%
Biden: 38%
Chafee: 10%

NE-2 Poll

Carson: 45%
Biden: 38%
Chafee: 12%

Wisconsin Poll

Biden: 43%
Carson: 37%
Chafee: 13%

Pennsylvania Poll

Biden: 40%
Carson: 39%
Chafee: 12%

ME-2 Poll

Biden: 40%
Carson: 37%
Chafee: 15%

New Mexico Poll

Biden: 40%
Carson: 33%
Chafee: 18%

Missouri Poll

Carson: 44%
Biden: 35%
Chafee: 12%

Minnesota Poll

Biden: 36%
Carson: 29%
Chafee: 25%

Michigan Poll

Biden: 44%
Carson: 35%
Chafee: 14%

Rhode Island Poll

Biden: 34%
Chafee: 32%
Carson: 25%

Massachusetts Poll

Biden: 45%
Carson: 29%
Chafee: 19%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Oct 4, 2016 - The First Presidential Debate - Ohio State University - Abbreviated Coverage



" Welcome to Ohio State University, and the first debate of the general election!  I am Megyn Kelly of Fox News, and I will be the sole moderator for this debate, the first of three presidential debates sponsored by the commission on presidential debates. The format is simple - each candidate gets 2 minutes for an opening statement and two minutes for a closing statement. The rest of the debate is divided into 8 segments, each approximately 10 minutes in length, discussing some area of domestic policy. All of the questions used tonight have been created by me, they have not been cleared by anyone, including the commission. Within each section, each candidate will get 1 minute to give an initial response, and the balance of the time will be used to facilitate a deeper discussion on the issue.  Should a candidate go over the time limit, a bell will sound. The Audience is required to stay quiet, with the exceptions of the end of the debate and right now, as we welcome Vice President Joe Biden and Former Neurosurgeon Ben Carson!"



"Candidates, welcome. Best of luck to both of you tonight. It has been selected by coin toss that Mr. Biden will open first. Mr. Biden, the first 2 minutes are yours."


Biden: "Well, let me just thank Fox News for sponsoring this debate, and Ohio State University for hosting this. This is a valuable time for the american people to learn about the fundamental choice we have about the direction of this country. I know that when people look at me, they think instantly of Obama, who is, regrettably, an extremely polarizing figure these days. But I stand here tonight as my own man. I am not running for the third term of Barack Obama, I am running for the first term of Joe Biden. While we have accomplished great things under Obama, we still have a long way to go. Wages are stagnant, the labor force participation rate is at an historic low, and our immigration system remains broken. Under my presidency, we will insert more stimulus money into the economy, reform immigration through congress instead of through executive orders*,  and reform our dangerously high corporate taxes. We will keep the deficit down, but not by cutting programs that the american people depend on. We will finally evacuate every last U.S. Troop from Afghanistan. We will repeal the medical device tax in ObamaCare, but otherwise preserve a great law that has dramatically lowered the number of people without health insurance. We will eliminate the payroll tax cap to save social security, cut waste across every industry of government, and end gridlock in Washington. It's not about trying to execute a third term of Barack Obama, it's about executing my own plan for the nation's future."

Kelly: "Carson, your opening statement."

Carson: "Well, let me just thank Fox News and Ohio State University for making this debate possible, and let me express how disappointed I am that Chafee was not allowed to participate in this debate. This is about hearing the viewpoints of all the major candidates, and Chafee, regardless of what a lame polling company may say, has definitely proved himself to be major. And this is why my running mate will refuse to participate in the vice presidential debate unless Chafee's running mate is included. But I feel it is important to show up to the three presidential debates to set the record straight about the man who stands beside me - as much as he may claim to be his own man, he is nothing but a puppet for Obama. Only under me will this country finally repeal ObamaCare, repeal Dodd-Frank, dramatically lower income taxes across the board, bring business back to this country, balance our budget, and stop endlessly raising our debt ceiling, which only enables our culture of spending too much and taxing too much. It's not about being the opposite of Obama, it's about doing what's right for the country. It's about cutting away the red tape and letting the free market work. It's about admitting that our entitlements are hopelessly bankrupt and will not survive unless they are privatized. It's about defending our borders and cracking down on illegal immigration. And it's about electing an outsider as president."

Kelly: "All right, we'll start with medicare. Mr. Carson, during the primaries you said you wanted to abolish medicare. You've walked that back to a point during the general, but you still call it "hopelessly bankrupt" and "a false promise that no one can depend on". Do you still wish to abolish the program? If so, how will seniors get the help they need to pay their health care costs without it? If not, how do you plan to modify it?"

Carson: "Abolishing it was not the right idea. But it does need to be dramatically altered. It must be allowed to negotiate for lower drug prices, and should be constructed just like the regular insurance market - several companies competing against each other with a bunch of red tape eliminated, not just one company tied up by endless regulation. In its current form, it is hopelessly bankrupt. And the petty reforms offered on the other side of the aisle will not save it. I'm not proposing this because I hate seniors, I'm doing it because I care about them deeply."

Kelly: "Biden, you've spent your campaign effectively talking around the question of how to reform medicare. Aside from alluding to "cutting waste", you've said very little about how you will save a program that will go bankrupt eventually. Is this some sort of game to win the election, or do you have some great plan that you haven't yet revealed?"

Biden: "I believe the overall program is sound. There are a few structural aspects to change - we must lower the amount of benefits for higher earners, we will examine the whole program and cut wasteful expenditures, and we will look at a range of potential solutions to more effectively manage care. But the thing I want to emphasize here is that it must be preserved. We cannot, and will not replace it with the evils of the premium support program that republicans are still trying to push despite the country rejecting it in 2012, or abolishing the program entirely. It is a program that seniors depend on. We certainly must ensure it remains solvent, but not by sabotaging its very core. That's something that my opponent fundamentally refuses to understand, and it's one of many reasons why we cannot choose his path for the country if we want to prosper as a nation."

---------------

Kelly: "The 4th segment is on ObamaCare. Mr. Biden, you have said the only change you anticipate making to the law is repealing the medical device tax. Why do you view this polarizing law as good for the country?"

Biden: "Because, Megyn, it is working for america! We have seen the uninsured rate dramatically fall, people are far more able to afford healthcare, they are aware of the options that exist, and the poor among us do not have to travel miles upon miles to find a sympathetic hospital or clinic. With the repeal of the medical device tax, we will free up the medical industry to spend less money paying off the government and more money actually caring for people and providing their services. The law is sound, the people are growing to like it more and more, and there is no reason to mess up a good thing. It must continue!"

Kelly: "Mr. Carson, the argument for repeal."

Carson: "This law is riddled with too much red tape for insurance companies, the utter destruction of the 40 hour work week, unelected death panels deciding how much care people receive, and is just the first step toward a single payer health care policy, something that I believe the democratic party will pursue eventually. It was thrown down the throats of this country, and for what benefit? Forcing people to pay for an insurance plan they rationally don't feel they need? destroying the 40 hour work week? Despite the president's promises, we have seen people be unable to keep the doctors they want and face constantly increasing premiums. This law is nothing but terrible and it must go away.

Biden: "There he goes with the death panels again! This idea has been debunked time and time again by independent fact-checkers. It's time for this idea to stop. The board is unable to make decisions about individual cases, it is merely a broad tool to dictate how we can efficiently control costs in medicare and ObamaCare. They aren't going to be sitting around a table talking about whether Grandpa gets his kidney transplant, they're going to be talking about how to preserve programs that society depends on."

------------------------------

Segment 7: Abortion

Carson: "Look at you, Mr. Biden, consenting to baby killing. This is not about imposing religion, it's about protecting valuable human life."

Biden: "The question about when life begins is extremely complex, it is one that people disagree on astronomi..."

Carson: "Scientists admit that babies can feel pain and emotion at certain points before birth. And you are standing here and supporting abortion right up to the very moment before labor ends. It's not good policy, it's just a scheme to be politically correct."

Biden: "But you have misgivings about abortion even to save the life of the mother!"

Carson: "But is the best path really to have essentially no restrictions on the practice just to be politically correct?"

Biden: "I don't believe in trying to legislate morality in this area. These are incredibly hard decisions for people, they don't make them casually. Abortion is not done for fun."

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

-------------

Kelly: "Mr. Carson, your closing statement."

Carson: "We stand here today with a fundamental choice in the very direction of our nation. We can continue down the failed path of president Obama, or we can wake up as a country and pursue a new direction. We can vote for a career politician, or we can vote for a real outsider. We can vote for someone who is chronically attached to the lobbyists, or for someone who is free of their influence. We can continue the failed policies of the last eight years, or repeal them and make a fresh start on fixing the problems of america. It's time for this country to wake up and realize that only through conservative policies can they be saved. This country has suffered under Obama greatly, and I will change that. I again thank Fox News and Ohio State University for making this debate possible. I remind the commission on presidential debates that my running mate will not participate in the vice presidential debate unless Chafee's running mate is included, as a protest to the commission's partisan policies. Please give serious consideration to my candidacy and check out my website at bencarson.com . "

Kelly: "Mr. Biden, your closing statement."

Biden: "The most important thing for the american people to understand about my candidacy is that I am not running for the third term of Barack Obama, I am running for the first term of Joe Biden. I have my disagreements with the president - I believe the medical device tax must be repealed, I feel there is more we can do to secure the border, I think the deficit is a serious issue, and if we can balance the budget in a responsible way, then there is no reason we should not do it and start paying down our roughly 20 trillion dollars of debt. We cannot follow the path of Mr. Carson. ObamaCare and Dodd-Frank are great policies that must be preserved, medicare and social security cannot be privatized or abolished, our seniors depend on them! We cannot default on our debt, that would only make our current predicament worse. We need to choose the right path to take what Obama did and improve upon it, and only I can provide that. I ask for your vote on November 8th."

Debate Winner Poll

Tie: 42%
Biden: 31%
Carson: 27%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

* Most of Obama's immigration orders were ruled unconstitutional by SCOTUS in May 2016.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

October 5 - Sandoval, Raimondo, Heitkamp endorse Lincoln Chafee for President

In a major win for Mr. Chafee, Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval (R), Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo (D), and North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D) have just issued a full endorsement of Mr. Chafee's campaign, citing their intense dislike of the chronic opposition that the cores of each party have against each other and the desperate need to find more common ground and actually start governing in Washington and across the country. They say that they are convinced that electing someone who is not strongly tethered to either major party as the country's leader will do a lot towards breaking up the gridlock.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

October 7 - Chafee Receives more endorsements, Committee on Presidential Debates gives in

Today, Lincoln Chafee received the endorsements of Indiana Senator Joe Donnelly (D), Indiana Senate Candidate Baron Hill (D) (who had previously said he would vote Biden "with reservations"), 2014 RI Gubernatorial Nominee Allan Fung (R), New Jersey Gov. and Former Presidential Candidate Chris Christie (R), and U.S. Reps. Krysten Sinema (D) and Gwen Graham (D).

Also, with Martinez holding firm on not participating in the VP debate without Ventura being there, and a new CNN poll showing Chafee at 17% nationally, the Committee on Presidential Debates announces that Ventura will be included in the upcoming Vice Presidential Debate. They say that while Chafee's campaign has definitively not met the criteria for that debate (which is being at 15% BEFORE the first presidential debate), the prospect of holding a one-candidate debate has left them little choice, and that holding an "illegitimate" three-candidate debate is a lesser evil than canceling it.

------------

A new poll out by Suffolk in Chafee's home state of Rhode Island shows him leading Biden 37 percent to 36 percent in the battleground state, the first time Chafee has been leading in a state poll. Meanwhile, SUSA shows him tied for second at 27% with Carson in his running mate's home state of Minnesota, with Biden at 36%.

The media is amazed at these developments. Who could have thought that the libertarian nominee for president would be doing this well? While he still stands little chance of actually winning the election, Chafee does stand a clear chance of throwing it into congress by denying both major party candidates a majority of the electoral votes, which would a true accomplishment for a third partier. Even more amazingly, third partiers in the senate and gubernatorial contests are only getting a slight bump from Chafee's performance - this isn't a movement toward third parties in general, it's a movement toward Mr. Chafee.

Chafee has disavowed some radical things that Gary Johnson supported in 2012 - he has made it clear that he will only legalize Marijuana, and keep all other drugs illegal, he has made it clear he does not support the FAIR Tax, and he has refused to support cutting defense spending by 43% - he instead says he intends to cut it by 4-7% over 10 years. Libertarian Party infrastructure seems to not care - Chafee still fits the profile of a social liberal and across-the-board fiscal conservative, and he is their first candidate - ever - who has really broken through the two-party deadlock and appealed to non-fringe american society. The party's leadership is often found tweeting out the latest poll results in glee, and their website actually contains a video of highlights from the libertarian convention debate, entitled "Chafee CRUSHES failed former nominee Gary Johnson." Chafee's strategy of running to the center and fiercely criticizing both parties really seems to be working.

[defe07]

Will there be any further updates? I'm wondering how the Chafee/Ventura ticket will do!