2016: A Total Mess

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

October 10 - Vice Presidential Debate - University of Wisconsin, Stout - Abbreviated Coverage



"Hello and Welcome to the Vice Presidential Debate. My name is Anderson Cooper, and I am the sole moderator for this debate. This debate is being sponsored by CNN and the commission on presidential debates. The three leading vice presidential candidates will be questioned on many important domestic issues of the day, and we will emphasize differences between the candidates throughout. We want to get a real discussion going here. Answers are to be limited to 90 seconds, 60 seconds for rebuttals, but these are not strict time limits - there will be no bells or flashing lights at this debate. I will interrupt candidates, however, if their answers are clearly too long or are off-topic - candidates must answer the question they are asked, not the question they might have wished to be asked. Audience silence is required - this is not about you, this is about the candidates. There are two exceptions to this - at the end of the debate, and right now, as we welcome U.S. Senator Joe Manchin, Governor Susana Martinez, and Former Governor Jesse Ventura!"



Cooper: Candidates, welcome. We'll begin with your opening statements. Two minutes each. We'll start with Mr. Ventura.

Ventura: I'd like to thank CNN for sponsoring this debate, and the commission on presidential debates for including this campaign. These debates are not to be about the pathetic liberal-conservative slugfest that toxicates our political environment, they are to be about who is best to lead our country.

Since the presidency of John Adams, our country has been governed by a simple philosophy - you either support everything the president is doing, or you hate everything the president is doing, as if that represents the overwhelming majority of this country or something. But we know that at least a plurality of the country now considers themselves to be independents. In 2012, exit polls showed 60% of voters desired an independent third party candidacy. That is exactly what Mr. Chafee and I have put forth. It is not about spoiling the election for either of the two major party candidates. It is about actually winning the presidency, kicking out the centuries-old establishment, and bringing centrist leadership to Washington!

Do not think for a minute that a vote for us is a wasted vote, or a vote for your least favorite of the three of us. No! It is a vote for real change in america. It is a vote of no confidence in either major party. It is a vote for an administration filled with real negotiation, led by two men - myself and Mr. Chafee, who have no strong preference between the left and the right and who believe that both parties have always failed the american people and will continue to fail the american people. Because for every good deed each party can point to, there are several bad deeds. This candidacy is not the reincarnation of Ross Perot - it is a candidacy that can win!

Cooper: Senator Manchin

Manchin: Good evening. Over the last seven years, we have seen a presidency, that while being much much better than the one that preceded it, has not fulfilled the truly ideal agenda for this country. Mr. Biden and I, however, have not proposed continuing with that ideal. We understand that Obama is a polarizing figure with mixed reviews of his presidency. And we realize that just because we fired a terrible chairwoman does not mean we will automatically win.

The policies our country needs are clear - we need to work to balance the budget - for real - but not by privatizing social security, nixing medicare, or abolishing the department of education. We need to preserve and work to improve ObamaCare, not repeal it. We need to keep Dodd-Frank, not repeal it. We need to govern through the legislative process, not through petty executive orders. We need to fight for our policies at all times, not just when the public likes them more than usual. We must lower our corporate taxes from their insanely high level that is only driving business away from this country.

We know americans aren't looking for a third Obama term, and we aren't providing one. What we do provide is a sensible, democratic agenda that will truly right the course of our country and make it greater than ever before!

Cooper: Governor Martinez

Martinez: Good Evening. Over the last seven years, our country has seen nothing but the most toxic, the most partisan, the most unhelpful policies since the administration of Jimmy Carter! Obamacare and Dodd-Frank are nothing but partisan policies that hurt american families and our economy. They must be repealed for the very welfare of this country. Social Security and Medicare must be drastically reformed, not to hurt seniors, but to save this program from extinction. We must protect the sanctity of life and work to overturn Roe vs. Wade. We must defund abortion-loving planned parenthood. And we must truly turn away from the failed policies of President Obama.

Every politician in Washington is irrversibly corrupt. But neither Mr. Carson nor I has spent a day in that corrupt environment. Both of the other tickets have, and Mr. Biden, he's been in Washington since the 1970's! Washington isn't working for america, and we need a real outsider ticket. That's exactly what this year's set of republican nominees provides, and it will give americans the administration they really do need.

Cooper: All right, let's begin the questioning. Immigration is an important issue in this election, even with Trump narrowly losing the republican nomination. Mr. Manchin, the current democratic president tried to resolve things through executive orders, but the supreme court refused to allow that. It has proved impossible to get an immigration bill through the house of representatives in this  age of divided government. How will a democratic administration take real action on this issue?

Manchin: Well, it starts with real bipartisanship, and trust in the office of the president. And what Biden and I have emphasized is that executive orders are not the right way to govern - if our platform is really what the american people need, then we should be able to convince their representatives that it is just that. The president is not a king, Anderson. What happened in the Obama administration is neither side ever took the time to really establish relationships between one another, and never really got out of election mode. Those deals that were worked out, like the fiscal cliff in 2012, they weren't worked out with Obama at the helm. Biden worked with moderate senators to get them through. The immigration bill that got 70 votes in the senate, that was worked out through a gang of 8 moderate senators. Unfortunately, the house never took up that bill despite repeated promises to at least look at part of it. Ultimately, to get anything done, both sides must work to establish relationships with one another and be focused on more than making someone a one term president or representative. And that will happen under a Biden/Manchin administration.

Cooper: But your ticket wants a path to citizenship. That's not a very bipartisan thing. Both of the other tickets are against that.

Manchin: That's the ideal, yes, but we're willing to live with a lesser legal status as well. And that's how negotiation works - both sides start with their ideal bills, but with the understanding that that will be modified as you move toward the middle.

Cooper: Martinez, is some sort of legal status for immigrants okay?

Martinez: No! That's amnesty. We don't need a new path to citizenship, we already have one - it's called legal immigration. Plenty of people use it. Perhaps we can streamline and shorten that path some, and we do need more border security. But ultimately, these people who have immigrated illegally to this country need to get to the back of the line - no special path.

Manchin: It's not about a special path for immigrants. That senate bill, which I supported, it was a long, arduous, 13 year path to citizenship - that did not begin until such time the border was agreed to be secure by congress. Not by the president, by congress. You know that it is inhumane to round up and deport 11 million people. These are families that are living and working in this country.

Ventura: Listen to yourself, Manchin! These people shouldn't be in this country in the first place, they are ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS.

Manchin: What an insulting term! These are important families...

Ventura: Look at this political correctness! It's ruining our country, folks, it's ruining our country! Now, obviously it's unrealistic to round up and deport 11 million people, but that doesn't mean we should give them a path to citizenship. The Chafee/Ventura plan is intensive use of e-verify - which Manchin's ticket has been unclear of their support of - increased border security, and green cards. Citizenship should be off the table, as these families did not come to this country in the correct manner. But of course you allow legal status - mass deportation is unrealistic. If people want to become citizens, then they need to return to their home country and apply from there.

Cooper: Manchin - what is your ticket's position on the e-verify system?

Manchin: We believe that with increased border security and a path to citizenship, there will be little to no need for that system. But that's key, a path to citizenship, and that remains our goal. It is unjust to break up american families.

Ventura: American families? These are illegal immigrants!

Cooper: Let's bring Martinez into this - both of the other tickets would sign a bill allowing legal status - your ticket is the only one saying no to that.

Martinez: Because we believe we have the path we need already, it's called legal immigration. The right, lawful thing to do is to deport these immigrants. While we've seen an improvement in that aspect if you compare the Obama administration to the Bush administration, we have not gone far enough. Under a Martinez administration, this country would be illegal-immigrant free. To provide any path to legal status or citizenship without a return to one's home country would go against the very nature of law and order....

--------------------------------

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Later:

Cooper: Let's briefly go to the subject of Gay Marriage. Starting with Mr. Manchin, are you comfortable with treating the issue as settled law and not attempting to overturn or nullify the supreme court ruling on the issue in any way, shape, or form?

Manchin: I remain personally opposed to gay marriage, but this country clearly thinks differently on the issue. A Biden/Manchin administration will treat the issue as settled law.

Cooper: Ventura?

Ventura: Yes.

Cooper: Martinez?

Martinez: No! We will propose a constitutional amendment to return the decision to the states! It is time that the supreme court realizes it is powerless in the issues of life and the family. We will do the same with Abortion. These are critical issues that need to be addressed state by state, as each state has a different opinion on the family and the sanctity of life. The supreme court has clearly overstepped its bounds here and gone against the still significant number of states that believe marriage is between one man and one woman. Not gay marriage, not polygamy, not incest - ONE MAN AND ONE WOMAN!

Ventura: Look at this unloving administration. Excessive scientific study and observation has revealed that gay people are perfectly capable of being stable and raising children effectively. Sexual Orientation is not a choice you make, it is something you have to live with. Let people marry who they love. No one is forcing you to get a gay marriage!

Cooper: All right. Martinez mentioned abortion, let's go there. Manchin, your ticket is the only one that supports permitting late-term abortion. Why?

Manchin: This is an issue where I disagree with Mr. Biden - I believe that the sanctity of life must be protected in the immediate weeks before birth. But Mr. Biden's position is simple and justifiable - while he personally believes life begins at conception, he knows that there are intense divisions in society about when life begins, and he believes that being hands-off on the issue is the only way to truly satisfy this country. Ultimately, this is about how much government should interfere in these exceedingly difficult positions. And the position proposed by the top of the ticket is that the government should get out of these decisions. But there is definitely agreement that we can work to lower abortion to the lowest levels possible - increased access to contraception, including over the counter, would be a great start. We need more funding for orphanages in this country, so people can choose adoption over abortion if they truly believe those are their only two choices. We can work to expand access to providers, so that the procedure is done early in pregnancy, when all but the Carson/Martinez ticket agree that it is okay. So while we won't be outlawing late-term abortion, we can still work to at least make it not happen as frequently, and that's exactly what a Biden/Manchin administration will do.

Cooper: Mr. Ventura, your thoughts on this issue?

Ventura: Well, I certainly agree that early in pregnancy, there is no justification for infringing on women's right to choose. You have to get to certain points in the pregnancy before the fetus can feel pain and the like. But I think that in the last 10 weeks of pregnancy, you are dealing with what is undoubtedly life, and you must protect that. These are human lives we are talking about at that point, not just a bunch of cells. Supporting abortion in the immediate weeks before pregancy only adds to the political correctness that is ruining this country!

-------------
The rest of the debate followed a pattern that you can start to see above - Manchin advocated a more-conciliatory sounding version of orthodox democratic policy, Martinez held the republican line, and Ventura mostly tacked to the center and attacked political correctness.

Closing statements coming soon.

[defe07]

Really enjoyed it! Hope there's more to come! Thanks!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

---

Cooper: The time has finally come for closing statements. 90 seconds each. Ventura?

Ventura: Our country stands at a pivotal point in history. It can simply ignore the flaws of the two party system and endorse either major party ticket, or it can understand such flaws and vote for what is perfectly capable of being the strongest third party run since the formation of the modern day republican party. For even though we officially run under the libertarian party banner, Chafee and I have made it clear throughout this campaign that we do not consider ourselves endeared to the goals of any political party. Chafee did not enter the libertarian presidential race because he felt himself to be the most libertarian person alive, he entered it because the two parties had shut him out for the simple reason that he has never been a partisan politician.

To all who think a vote for us is a vote wasted, think again. I won the governorship of Minnesota on the line of the little-known reform party. Chafee won the governorship of Rhode Island as an Independent. You can win outside of the major party system in this country, you just have to believe in the possibility.

In this debate, you've seen two candidates who are totally endeared to their party's establishment. Both have done a great job of faking moderation during their time in office, but once on the campaign trail for president, that moderation suddenly fades away. Manchin is afraid of not being politically correct, Martinez is afraid of a challenge from her right flank in some future run for office should she lose this election. Only the Chafee/Ventura ticket will remain free from influence from any political party - for us, it's not about who succeeds or who loses. It's not about what sounds best or what is politically correct. It's not about the next election! It's about what's right for the american people!

Cooper: Manchin

Manchin: I want to again thank CNN and the commission on presidential debates for sponsoring this debate. The american people have a fundamental choice to make. They can realize that Obama has done plenty of good for this country and continue on only a slight modification from what he has done, or they can vote for radical change from his agenda. Our campaign believes that america is largely on the right track and only needs some minor course corrections. None of the other two campaigns believe that. Our campaign believes that Obamacare does not need major revision. None of the other two campaigns believe that. Our campaign is the only campaign to refer to all immigrants in a humane manner, and the only campaign to truly respect a woman's right to choose.

We understand that many americans feel disconnected from the establishments of both political parties, but we do not think a third party, libertarian option is truly the way to go. As much as Chafee and Ventura claim independence, how much will they really have in office - with an actual position of power, libertarian party officials will stop at nothing to get their agenda through, complete with a radical cut to our military spending. And even if that doesn't happen, I still think some sort of pattern will emerge in terms of whose bills are signed and whose are vetoed, and this so-called independence will simply wither away with time. And if what you have heard tonight has not made you truly scared of the Carson/Martinez campaign, I'm not quite sure what will.

Under a Biden/Manchin administration, better relationships with congress will be established, and we will seek changes from the Obama era in ways that truly benefit the american people, but in many ways, it will simply be a continuation of the good policies that his administration bestowed onto this great nation. Thank you.

Cooper: And Martinez

Martinez: Thank you to all who watched this debate. These events are an important part of the political process, and tonight I believe the utter incompetence of the other two campaigns was put on full display. The Biden/Manchin campaign is endeared to the Obama agenda that has failed this country. ObamaCare and Dodd-Frank are hurting families and businesses, and such an administration has the potential to make such laws even more liberal in nature. As much as they claim to care about the deficit, how will that be the case when they increase spending for entitlement programs, which will only make them go bankrupt sooner. And the economy will begin spiraling downward as economists are currently predicting. That will not happen under a Carson/Martinez administration.

As much as the claims to independence of the Chafee/Ventura campaign offer a welcome reprieve from the partisan bickering of daily political life, we know that the real reason they claim independence is because they have no real agenda. Their agenda, so to speak, simply involves picking the most centrist position they can come up with solely because it is a centrist position.

As governor of New Mexico, I have always fought and continue to fight for conservative policies, and I will do so even more as Vice President. Conservative policies are the only pathway to a good future for this country. Thank you, good night, and god bless america.

Cooper: We thank all the candidates for participating in this debate, and the commission on presidential debates for their sponsorship. The next debate, the town hall presidential debate, is on October 18, at Longwood University in Virginia, sponsored by ABC and the commission on presidential debates.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

VP Debate Winner Poll

Ventura: 48%
Manchin: 30%
Martinez: 21%
Tie: 7%

October 11 - Party Establishment Panicks as Chafee recieves more endorsements

Following Ventura's strong performance in the VP Debate, a joint statement is released from Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner (R), Illinois Senator Mark Kirk (R), Illinois Representative Bob Dold (R), Nevada Representative Crescent Hardy (R), Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin (D), Tennessee Representative Jim Cooper (D), North Carolina Gubernatorial Nominee Roy Cooper (D), Arizona Senate Nominee Ann Kirkpatrick (D), and New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan (D). All ten of them have decided to endorse Lincoln Chafee for President.

This is reported to be causing mass panic in the upper ranks of the establishment of both parties, and Obama is expected to make a "negative and fierce" speech on the Chafee campaign before the next debate.

[defe07]

More! Keep it coming!!

[defe07]

I'd really like to see an update here! What happens with the Libertarians??

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

October 15 - Obama Slams Chafee

"Good Evening. Let's start tonight by dispelling the myths that have been spread about what will occur. No, I am not going to attempt to call off the election. No, I am not going to declare myself dictator for life or demand that Mr. Chafee be taken off state ballots. We are a free country, and if america, or the next congress, elects Mr. Chafee, we will survive. But we will not get to any sort of new, better era in american politics under a Chafee Administration.

Chafee would tell you that he represents the political center, as he says it, the policies that americans truly want. But a glance at his platform tells you that is fundamentally untrue. Under a Chafee administration, our military would receive devastating cuts that would impact our ability to defend ourselves against our enemies. Yes, even a 10% cut is an act of great disrespect and dismantlement to our great military. Under a Chafee administration, taxes would be cut for the wealthiest americans, our entitlement programs would be weakened under some unmerited faith in the general goodness of the human race. ObamaCare would be fundamentally changed, and not in a good way. A woman's right to choose would be weakened, and considering the number of times Chafee has switched political parties and ideologies over the years, America would be vulnerable to constant changes in his platform for the worse.

The party banner that Chafee runs under, that of the libertarian party, also does not represent the american center. Under the ideals of the libertarian party, the nation would be funded by a punitive, regressive sales tax. Military spending would be cut by nearly half. Heroin and Cocaine would be sold on the open market. Poor people would find themselves dying in the street, government prohibited from giving them any help at all. And our border security, which has vastly improved over my presidency, would be fundamentally weakened. Now, I understand that Mr. Chafee, after winning the libertarian nomination, has worked to distance himself from many aspects of their platform. But for how long will he do so? If Mr. Chafee has made one thing clear over the past decade or so, it is that he has no real convictions and is willing to change his ideology at the drop of the hat. I don't deny that Mr. Chafee was shunned when he was a democrat. But it wasn't because we're against legitimate conversions, or because Chafee had these vast progressive credentials we never saw - no, it was because we knew that he had absolutely no devotion to any political ideology at all. Whatever Chafee has on his website right now, you can't trust it. Whatever he says, you can't trust it. He will change his style of governing and ideology from month to month or year to year. With him, you aren't going down a definite path, you're going down a path of completely unknown territory that will never become even a little bit clearer.

Where my support is for this election is obvious - it is with the Biden/Manchin ticket. Such a ticket will uphold and build on what my administration accomplished over these last eight years. It will protect entitlements, reproductive rights, and our military. It represents the path we need over the next eight years. But if you truly find yourself unwilling to vote for that ticket - then I ask that you vote for Carson over Chafee. At least with Carson, we know what we're getting. We know the flaws in his path that we will experience as a nation. Our congress can anticipate those flaws and work early to minimize the number of them that will actually pass. With Chafee, we have absolutely no idea of what to expect. No idea at all. So, america, I beg of you, do not vote for Mr. Chafee. Whatever you do, do not vote for Mr. Chafee. For the sake of this nation's future, whether you love me or hate me, do not vote for Mr. Chafee. Thank you, god bless you, and god bless the United States of America."

[defe07]

How are the polling numbers and is Chafee winning any states??

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

How are the polling numbers and is Chafee winning any states??

As of before Obama's speech, he was leading in Rhode Island and only 6 points behind in Minnesota. I will do a full polling map after the 2nd debate.

[defe07]

Anything new with the election??

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Second Presidential Debate - Longwood University, VA - Town Hall



"Hello. I am Tanya Rivero of ABC News, the sole moderator for this year's town hall debate, a critical point in the presidential race. Lincoln Chafee's campaign has been put on the defensive after the negative remarks from President Obama three days ago. Joe Biden has struggled in recent days to remove accusations raised at the VP debate that his campaign is too politically correct for america. And Ben Carson battles resistance to the heavily conservative platform laid out by him and Martinez in earlier debates. Under that front, we enter this, the Town Hall debate, sponsored by ABC and the commission on presidential debates. Gathered on these risers are approximately 100 Virginia registered voters, who have all signed a very clear oath that they are currently undecided and could see themselves voting for any of the three presidential tickets. All the questions tonight will be asked by these voters. Which questions will be asked has been selected in advance. Unless asking a question, the audience is to remain silent, except for at the end of the debate, and right now, as we welcome Vice President Joe Biden, Former Neurosurgeon Ben Carson, and Former Governor Lincoln Chafee!



Welcome candidates. Best of luck to all of you tonight. We have two hours to debate and you are expected to limit your answers to 90 seconds, 45 seconds for rebuttals. There will be no opening statements in this debate, but there will be closing statements. Let's get started now with our first question, which is for Governor Chafee.

"Mr. Chafee, for the history of our country, we have always gone with the bulk of one party's agenda or the other for four or eight years. You say you will divorce from that, not to forge a third concrete ideology, but to take the "best from everywhere" as you refer to it. Is this just moderation for the sake of moderation?" (OOC: I included this question solely because of the Atlas "moderate hero" stereotype)

Chafee: No, it certainly isn't. What it is is truly going along with the will of the american people, who the majority of which do not want to pursue the solution of one party on every major issue. The american people are reasonably socially liberal, fiscally conservative, and don't look the other way at crime. That's exactly what our campaign has espoused. It's a centrist, libertarian agenda, attractive to voters of all stripes, and it's what the american people truly want for this nation. I also want to take this time to stress that I will not have any sort of preference as to whose bills I sign and whose I don't. I will take an honest look at every bill that comes through the congress and honestly evaulate whether it would go along with the goals of the american people. Not my own goals, not the goals of any political party, not even that of the libertarian party, but the ideals of the american people. That's what this whole campaign is based on, and it's what we've been missing in american politics since the days of Abraham Lincoln. Biden and Carson are partisan hacks. You won't get one dose of compromise in those administrations. Not one dose. In a Chafee administration, you will get real negotiation to achieve the real goals of the american people.

Rivero: Biden, you were mentioned there. Take 45 seconds.

Biden: Look, it's what Obama said in his speech. There will start to be a pattern in terms of whose bills are signed and whose bills are vetoed. Chafee just admitted to having no convictions. Listen to this man, America! He is a damn...

Chafee: Shame on you, Biden! Shame on you! I have convictions, and they very well align with the convictions of the american people! Obama was wrong to make that speech. And besides, weren't you trying to moderate your ticket when you picked Manchin? You've only gone back on that because I'm polling well. If that's not a focus group tested action, I don't know what is!

Biden: You're addicted to focus groups!

Chafee: That would be you, actually, Mr. Biden! I have but a sole focus group - the american people!

Carson: Oh, look at these two bickering liberals.  Look, we agree as a country that Obama has been a bad president. Instead of backing someone who supports at least some of his agenda, why don't we divorce ourselves from his agenda. I don't support anything that Obama supports....

------------

"Mr. Biden, mass shootings continue to be a common event in our nation. How would you work with congress to change american policy on guns for the better while remaining true to the spirit of the second amendment?"

Biden: My policies would not be focused on taking away American guns. They would instead be focused on how we can better keep guns out of the hands of criminals. Under my presidency, I would seek to finally pass the Manchin-Toomey legislation, which would close the gun show and online loopholes in our background check system. We would also look into an assault weapons ban. Current owners would not be asked or expected to turn in their assault weapons. But the future sale of them would be banned. We would not take away a single american gun.

Rivero: Mr. Chafee, same question

Chafee: An assault weapons ban? Seriously, Mr. Biden? Seriously? That's taking away of arms, not from individuals, but from society. That is a break of the second amendment. Now, on the Manchin-Toomey, I agree with you. But you cannot prevent law-abiding americans from buying a certain arbitrary classifcation of guns...

Biden: Well, in the 90s, we did and it was never seriously challenged....

Chafee: Just because no one got caught doesn't mean the amendment was never broken!

(quiet applause)

(Biden looks around in shock)

-------------------
to be continued....

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

"Dr. Carson, would you be willing to keep certain parts of Obamacare, particularly the prohibition on
denial of coverage on the basis of a preexisting condition?"


Carson: I believe that every part of Obamacare must be repealed. The law has harmed America so much, in every way possible, that any small amount of help certain provisions may have provided is undone by the toxicity of the remaining provisions. Look, I believe we need to truly move on from the presidency of Obama, who the nation agrees has been a bad president, and we must do that by fundamentally moving on from his policies. Yes, we will replace ObamaCare, but we must start by repealing it, repealing Dodd-Frank, really doing a clean sweep and starting over the last few years. If we just carve around the edges, only repealing what is the most unpopular, we'll never get anywhere. We have to be bold, we have to realize that we must move beyond the Obama presidency and really have a fresh start. And keeping any part of ObamaCare is keeping the legacy of Obama. It is endorsing, in fact, the legacy of Obama. I don't believe that any part of ObamaCare can be kept, or else we are replacing him in name only. The same applies with Dodd-Frank, with the repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell, and other policies. We must undo everything to truly start anew.

Biden: Look at this man! He is irrational! We cannot repeal the very laws that are helping people and this economy. This country will be suffering under Carson, suffering so deeply that it may cease to be the greatest nation in the world.

Chafee: Calm down, calm down. Of course Carson is wrong, we must keep parts of ObamaCare, of course. But We are always the greatest nation! Always!

Biden: Calm? You think this is a time to be calm?

Carson: Ah, bickering liberals again! You see the problem we are facing here. Just a bunch of liberals arguing about how liberal to be. It is really the time to truly part from Obama and realize we must move on as a country....

----------------

The rest of the debate went much the same. Chafee sounded alarms at Biden frequently, while doing so occasionally with Carson, and sought to make clear that he did in fact have real convictions. Carson gained some ground by being the opposition to the "bickering liberals" and stressing a need to move on from Obama. Biden never really caught a good narrative during the debate and clearly lost.

Debate Winner Poll

Chafee: 49%
Carson: 32%
Biden: 12%
Tie: 7%

Next: Post 2nd-Debate Polling Map

[Mike Thick]

Chafee 2016! I put the "focus groups" line from the last update in my sig! Keep up the good work!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Presidential Polling - October 22, 2016

Biden: 212
Carson: 195
Chafee: 4
Toss-Up: 127


National Poll

Carson: 36%
Biden: 35%
Chafee: 20%
Others: 1%
Undecided: 8%

Two-Way National

Biden: 49%
Carson: 45%
Undecided: 6%

President Obama Approval Rating

Disapprove: 52%
Approve: 46%

The news continues to be the success of Governor Chafee. While Obama's intention in making a speech was to knock down Chafee's campaign in the polls, it has instead resulted in united criticism by the Chafee and Carson campaigns, and the Biden campaign has gone from not commenting on the speech to saying that the strategy "may not have been wise". Chafee has also been clear and effective, in campaign events, a tv ad, and on the debate stage, in striking down Obama's claims. Obama's approval rating has taken a tumble from the incident.

Certain pundits have broadcasted the fact that third parties tend to fade toward the end, but Chafee's campaign is showing no sign of that, though it may should he perform badly at the Foreign Policy Debate on the 25th. For the moment though, Chafee appears to be a strong favorite in his home state of Rhode Island. He is tied with Biden in Minnesota and is polling in Second in New Hampshire.

Nevada Poll

Biden: 37%
Carson: 36%
Chafee: 18%

Colorado Poll

Carson: 37%
Biden: 35%
Chafee: 22%

Iowa Poll

Carson: 36%
Biden: 36%
Chafee: 21%

Ohio Poll

Biden: 37%
Carson: 36%
Chafee: 20%

Virginia Poll

Biden: 36%
Carson: 34%
Chafee: 23%

North Carolina Poll

Carson: 36%
Biden: 33%
Chafee: 21%

Florida Poll

Biden: 37%
Carson: 37%
Chafee: 18%

New Hampshire Poll

Carson: 35%
Chafee: 29%
Biden: 27%

Arizona Poll

Carson: 40%
Biden: 34%
Chafee: 17%

Georgia Poll

Carson: 41%
Biden: 36%
Chafee: 16%

NE-2 Poll

Carson: 41%
Biden: 34%
Chafee: 18%

Wisconsin Poll

Biden: 38%
Carson: 32%
Chafee: 22%

Pennsylvania Poll

Biden: 35%
Carson: 34%
Chafee: 22%

ME-2 Poll

Biden:  34%
Carson: 32%
Chafee: 23%

New Mexico Poll

Biden: 39%
Carson: 31%
Chafee: 21%

Minnesota Poll

Biden: 32%
Chafee: 32%
Carson: 28%

Michigan Poll

Biden: 41%
Carson: 33%
Chafee: 18%

Rhode Island Poll

Chafee: 40%
Biden: 31%
Carson: 22%

Massachusetts Poll

Biden: 43%
Carson: 29%
Chafee: 21%

Maine Poll

Biden: 40%
Carson: 29%
Chafee: 23%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Foreign Policy Debate - University of New Hampshire, Manchester - October 25, 2016



"Good evening. My name is Brian Williams, and I am the moderator for the Foreign Policy Debate of the 2016 presidential election. This debate is being sponsored by NBC, MSNBC, and the commission on presidential debates. Foreign Policy is a topic that has not been discussed much in this campaign, only the Biden campaign has a clear set of truly concrete proposals, and Carson's inexperience on the issue almost lost him the republican nomination. Now we come to tonight. A key night, really, for all three candidates. Whoever comes out of here with the momentum may never lose it, as this will be the final debate before the general election on November 8. Let's now welcome the candidates on stage: Vice President Joe Biden, Former Governor Lincoln Chafee, and Former Neurosurgeon Ben Carson!"



Welcome candidates. I have picked out eight topics of discussion for tonight's debate. There are no strict time limits, aside from what is necessary to make sure we get to all 8 of them. Per prior agreement, we will forgo opening statements and get right to the first topic. But unlike in past debates, this time it is up to you to choose which topic goes first. So, Mr. Carson, you won the coin toss, so pick one of these envelopes....


So, in this envelope, is Iran. Mr. Carson, you say you will repeal the Iran Deal on Day 1. Why won't this just enable Iran's ability to get a nuclear weapon?

Will Carson finally be coherent on Foreign Policy? Find out Next Update.

[defe07]

Looking good!!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Carson: Not anymore than it's already being enabled. This deal accomplished nothing. If anything, it might have emboldened them. Yes, you heard right, it might have emboldened them. These are petty sanctions that they can easily worm their way out of. There is little to ensure they will comply with even the minor provisions it does have. All it will do is show them that the world is weak and unwilling to stop them. Their construction will thus speed up rapidly and they will start using nuclear technology very quickly. They will put all of the world in danger, all of the world. And they will reach the continental united states no later than 2025. There is no limit to the ambition of Iran, there is no limit. They will attack everyone! They have every last bit of ambition, and they are terrorists! The only thing that will work is outright invading their country and taking their nuclear weapons by force! This is war, folks, THIS IS WAR!!!!!

Biden: What is wrong with you? Iran is a peaceful nation that has a few...unfortunate characters. The sanctions that are imposed by the deal will keep effective tabs on the nuclear technology they have, and the deal does have real teeth. It's time people in your party stopped the lying! Half of you barely even read the deal and therefore have no right to criticize it anyways. It has worked so far and it will continue to work. It is a clear foreign policy success for this president, and it will be remembered as his greatest accomplishment in that area aside from the defeat of Osama Bin Laden.

Chafee: Look at these bickering politicians! They haven't done anything for America but argue with each other. They never get anything done, and they wrongly think that they are always right! We can do better, America, we can do better!

Carson: Well, since when do you have ideas, Chafee?

Chafee: Since always! I'll negotiate a better deal with real teeth, real sanctions, and real protection from the very real terrorism that does go on in Iran. But they are a sovereign nation. We can't just outright take their resources.

Carson: Negotiating with terrorists, are we?

Chafee: Not every person in Iran is a terrorist, you bufoon!

---------

Williams: In this 3rd envelope is immigration reform. Biden, you've emphasized a path to citizenship, but how do you get that through a republican house of representatives and at best, a closely divided Senate? Obama tried valiantly and couldn't do it. Bush couldn't do it when his own party controlled congress. How can you be any different?

Biden: I have real relationships with these members of congress. When negotiation did happen in the Obama years, I was a principle instrument in that. I worked with McConnell, Ryan, McCain, lots of major players in Washington. I have made it clear that I will be a fundamentally different president than Obama in this area - I will work early and often to develop these relationships, I will not lose hope, I will not cry to liberal pundits to try to get my way. I will start with the trust I already have from my long career in the senate and as vice president, and build upon that. Washington can work again, it can work.

Chafee: He's confessing it right there, America! He's a part of the establishment! The establishment hasn't worked for you! It will never work for you! You must try a different direction!.....

To be continued

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

5th Topic: Should Military spending be cut?

Chafee: It is imperative that we cut military spending. We spend more than almost all other nations combined on our military, and there is simply no rationale behind it. Obviously we cannot gut our military, and it is key that it remains very strong. But the current level of funding is unnecessary and cannot be maintained if we are to care about our deficit. I would cut the military budget by 10% over five years, disregarding inflation. It would then be frozen at that level for another seven years, no exceptions even for inflation unless 3/4 of congress agrees. This spending cut will not be easy, I can guarantee that. But nothing in life is easy - balancing the budget won't be easy either!

Carson: Unlike you, I take pride in our military. It is something that other countries should and do fear. If anything, we should be spending more. Our navy has been reduced the smallest size in almost a century. Other countries, especially North Korea and Iran, threaten us daily because they know that we are beatable. The military needs a 2 trillion spending increase over the next 10 years. It's not a matter of whether the military brass thinks they need it or not, the president is the top authority, and I say they need more! For you to even suggest cutting the military, or for you, Biden, to support, as you have said previously, a retention of current spending levels is unpatriotic. Shame on you, Mr. Biden. And shame on you, especially, Mr. Chafee. I have never seen a more un unpatriotic person

Chafee: And you can stop right there! What are we supposed to do, be the police of the world?

Carson: Well, if you call it that, you call it that.

Chafee: Look at that, America. The republicans have said for years that they are not the police of the world party, but look at that admission right there! Carson is for us being the police of the world! He has just admitted it to you! Shameful.

*Carson looks to Biden for help*

Biden: For once, I agree with him. You know better, Mr. Carson. We are not the police of the world.

-------------

Ultimately, the rest of the debate didn't matter. Everyone remembered that moment the most, and it would be universally viewed as a mistake. The only question was how many votes it would actually take away from Carson, and whether they would go to Chafee or go to Biden.


Next: Election Night Coverage

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Election Night 2016



Maddow: The moment is here in this hotly contested election between Democratic Nominee Joe Biden, Republican Nominee Ben Carson, and Libertarian Nominee Lincoln Chafee. We'll be here as long as it takes to declare a winner, or to declare that congress will decide due to no one reaching an electoral majority. The states that we think Chafee has at least a small chance of carrying are NM, MN, DE, NH, ME, and his home state of Rhode Island.  We'll be watching all night to see if that will take enough electoral votes away to throw this election into the house of representatives. Right now, at 7:00 on the east coast, we have polls closing in six states. Let's take a look.

------------

In Kentucky, Ben Carson is the projected winner

Carson - 48.6%
Biden - 35.3%
Chafee - 14.1%
Others - 2.0%

In Indiana, Ben Carson is the projected winner

Carson - 47.3%
Biden - 34%
Chafee - 16.2%
Others - 2.5%

In South Carolina, Ben Carson is the projected winner.

Carson - 50%
Biden - 38%
Chafee - 11%
Others - 1%

In Georgia, we are currently characterizing the race as too early to call. Carson was considered the favorite in Georgia, but he cannot count on it at this hour.

In Virginia, we are currently characterizing the race as too close to call, with Biden and Carson in contention to win.

In Vermont, we are currently characterizing the race as too early to call. The pre-election polls showed Biden with a very comfortable lead in that state, but our exit polling suggests Chafee may be performing better than expected in that state. We will wait for some real votes before projecting a winner in the state of Vermont.

So, with that, Carson has 28 electoral votes, with nothing yet for Biden or Chafee:

We have two hotly contested gubernatorial races closing at this hour - first in Indiana between Republican Incumbent Mike Pence and Democrat Judd Gregg, and second in Vermont between Democrat Shap Smith and Republican Phil Scott. Both are considered too close to call at this hour.

Due to Republicans having 27 governorships that are not up for election tonight, the gubernatorial majority is not up for grabs tonight. Republicans will retain it no matter what. The only question is if Democrats can end the night with a net gain.

Republicans: 27
Democrats: 10
Independents: 1

In the senate, we can project that, in Georgia, Johnny Isakson will win another term

Isakson (R) - 56.3%
Frye (D) - 40.8%
Others - 2.9%

In South Carolina, Tim Scott wins his first full term

Scott (R) - 63.7%
Dickerson (D) - 34%
Others - 2.3%

In Vermont, longtime senator Patrick Leahy wins another term

Leahy (D) - 62.6%
Brock (R) - 34%
Others - 3.4%

In Kentucky, it'll be another term for Rand Paul

Paul (R) - 55.6%
Fischer (D) - 43%
Others - 1.4%

In Indiana, we are characterizing the race as too close to call. That's a crucial battle between Republican Marlin Stutzman and Democrat Baron Hill.

At this hour, there are no gains for either party in the senate.

Democrats: 37 (counting Sanders & King)
Republicans: 33

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm predicting that no candidate will reach a majority, while the Senate is split 50-50, leading to a constitutional question.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: So that's what we have for you at 7:00 eastern. Again, we have an excellent panel - Newsnation Anchor Tamron Hall, Meet the Press anchor Chuck Todd, The Last Word anchor Lawrence O'Donnell, Eugene Robinson of the Washington Post, Hardball anchor Chris Matthews, and Libertarian Party Vice Chair Arvin Vohra. We have Chris Jansing covering the Biden campaign, Brian Williams with the Carson campaign, Chris Hayes with the Chafee campaign, and Steve Kornacki for our by the numbers analysis board.

Matthews, first to you - interesting characterization in Vermont, too early to call with Chafee performing "better than expected". Could Vermont actually go for Chafee?

Matthews: Well, we'll have to see. It's not really a place they were campaigning in the final days, they were generally in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Maine. And Vermont is such a liberal state. I know we have the close gubernatorial race there, which is going to be fascinating, but for federal races, it's very democratic. Obama got well over 60% both times. Chafee could manage 2nd in the state, but him actually winning it, it's far fetched.

Robinson: I think I agree, but what the Vermont characterization suggests is that Chafee is not fading away. We've talked throughout this campaign about how third partiers always fade towards the end, but Chafee just hasn't. Clearly his debate performances and his intense campaigning and level of self-funding helped, and the libertarian party did the legwork in terms of achieving ballot access in 49 states and D.C., but it is just amazing that he does not seem to be fading away at all. And if he's doing well enough in Vermont that there is a question of who will win it, then that certainly suggests he is safe in his two best states, Rhode Island and Minnesota, and can win several others as well.

O'Donnell: Whatever happens tonight, I just have to hand it to him for excellent strategy. Early on, he campaigned almost exclusively in his home state of Rhode Island - that was supposed to be a mistake. The Libertarians were supposed to never nominate him. But it's worked. He got nominated, and because he had that early one-state focus that gradually expanded, he's not going to be just a footnote like Perot was, who got a chunk of the vote but won nothing, he's going to be remembered as the opening to what I think will be a new age of success for the libertarian party. Chafee forced them to moderate their platform, widen their tent, and make themselves more known to the american people, and we're already seeing the results of that tonight with the Vermont characterization.

Maddow: On that point, Mr. Vohra, I know when the libertarian party nominated Chafee, there were concerns in the ranks because he is not an orthodox libertarian a la Gary Johnson and Austin Peterson, the other options the libertarians had at their convention. Is the libertarian party going to adopt the Chafee platform in earnest going forward?

Vohra: Well, that will be a choice for the internal party members and delegates to make. Chair Sarwark and myself were not exactly happy with this nomination, but we embraced it because it's a winning candidacy. Not winning the election outright, but sending it into the house of representatives, which is really going to make the people wake up and realize the libertarian party's existence, more than they have already through this election. And I think the party realizes that there was some mistakes in our past platform, that it was too radical for the american people to accept, and even if we don't adopt Chafee's ideas wholeheartedly, I think the specifics of a defintion of a mainstream libertarian will change.

Maddow: All right, we now have the first numbers coming out of Virginia. Less than 1% of precincts reporting, so extrapolate from this at your peril, but Carson with 48% of the vote so far to Biden's 31%, and Chafee's 20%. That's what we have out of Virginia. Still waiting for the first numbers out of Georgia and Vermont. Let's go now to Steve Kornacki for what we are watching for in these uncalled races.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kornacki: Well, starting with the state of Virginia, you see here we have the senate map from 2014, when Mark Warner was only re-elected by 17,000 votes. If the election in Virginia is indeed very close as the pre-election polls have indicated, you should see a county map looking something like this. Of course, in 2014 you did not have a major third party candidate in the race, and that is really a major factor in terms of Carson's ability to win the state. The polling has shown Chafee dragging Biden down in these northern Virginia counties that really decided this race for Warner. You see here, Loudoun and Prince William were very tight, but in Fairfax Warner got about a 20 point win. If we see Chafee dragging Biden down to a 15 point win here, or even narrower, that's a warning sign for the Biden campaign. Also key to a Biden win is driving up turnout down in the southeastern part of the state, winning Norfolk big and Richmond by a comfortable enough margin. This is a state where if Chafee drags Biden down too much and Carson is able to keep enough of his loose support from going to Chafee, then Carson can pull off a win. And I have to tell you, if this state goes for Carson, and you assume Florida goes for Carson, and you assume Chafee pulls off Rhode Island and Minnesota, then the math gets tough for Biden to win a majority of electoral votes. Not impossible, but it gets tough. Let's move on to the state of Georgia.



This is the 2012 president map from Georgia, when Obama lost by 7. If Biden is going to win in this state, he's going to have to get far beyond this. That means bigger margins in the Atlanta area and around Augusta. You also see this sort of strip of counties in the middle of the state, that's an important black population, turnout there will be crucial for Biden, and again, getting bigger margins than Obama got in these counties. Finally, he has to hope that enough "soft republicans" go for Chafee to give him a path to victory.

Finally, I know the situation in Vermont has raised a few eyebrows, but I will tell you that our decision desk still expects that state to go for Biden, but the number that Chafee had in the exit poll is surprising enough that we're just being extra cautious. They would not, however, be surprised if Chafee managed to finish 2nd in the state, ahead of Carson, which would certainly be an accomplishment in a state where Chafee did not have a super-dedicated campaign. They did run some ads over here and such, but they were mostly focused on New Hampshire, Maine, and getting 2nd place in Massachusetts.

Maddow: Thank you. Let's go to Brian Williams with the Carson campaign. How are they feeling at this early hour?

Williams: Well, they certainly come into this night with cautious optimism. They acknowledge that the last debate did not go well for them, but they've really tried to correct that on the trail since, rewording a foreign policy message of aggression in key swing areas. They also are really counting on the Chafee campaign to drag Biden down disproportionately enough in the states of Colorado, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The polls have been very tight in all of those states and the Chafee vote will certainly matter. The Carson campaign is very clear that they want to win a majority of the electoral vote. For even though it is the republican-controlled house that decides the president in the event of a tie, and no one expects the democrats to take the house tonight, the margin is expected to narrow and there are lot of house members who were not happy with the Carson nomination. There's certainly some worry that a minority of republicans could vote with Democrats to install Chafee as President. Also what will be a closely divided senate will pick the vice president, leaving the possibility for a Carson/Manchin or Carson/Ventura administration. So, Carson is really gunning for an absolute majority tonight, but they are counting on Chafee to essentially do some of the legwork for them in terms of dragging Biden down.

Maddow: All right. We'll go to a quick break now. Stay with us.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: Welcome back to our continuing coverage. It's 7:19 on the east coast, and we're just 11 minutes away from poll closings in Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina. Let's go to Chris Hayes who is with the Chafee campaign in Rhode Island. Chris, what's the mood like over there? Do they think they'll deadlock the electoral college?

Hayes: Well, they certainly hope for that. But they are already declaring victory based on the strong turnout for their campaign that they believe they are seeing in at least Rhode Island and Minnesota, and they are confident that they will win both of those states, which would be historic for the libertarian party, as no nominee of theirs has ever won a state before. The libertarian party is also virtually guranteed to get 5% nationally tonight and win federal funding for the 2020 election, which would really bring them into the political scene as a real national party and may finally get them elected beyond the local level. But I'm told that if the college is deadlocked, the Chafee campaign will be working very hard to extract concessions from whichever major party nominee is ultimately chosen there. They believe that there are serious misgivings about Carson and Biden within the rankings of the house and that they can work with these people to fundamentally alter the next presidency, even though Chafee actually becoming president is not something they believe to be likely.

Maddow: What are they saying about the news in Vermont? The early returns do show him in 2nd place there and the fact that we cannot call the state for Biden is pretty significant.

Hayes: That is a real surprise to them and is certainly giving them some early confidence in terms of the rest of the north. No, they don't think they'll win Vermont, but they're really talking up New Hampshire and would certainly love to win Vermont as well. And certainly if they win New Hampshire, they are probably winning Rhode Island and Minnesota as well, and we should keep an eye on New Mexico.

Maddow: All right. Lester Holt is ready with a set of data from our exit polling.

Holt: Yeah, we're looking here at some of the data we have for Virginia and Vermont. In both states, we asked about people's opinion of the libertarian party. Now, in neither state is it seen favorably by a majority, but you see a clear difference between the two. In Virginia, where Chafee will place third, only 28% of the population were willing to say they saw the libertarian party favorably. In Vermont, that number is 43%.......

Next: 7:30 Poll Closings

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: With the polls closing in Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina, we can make some projections.

In the state of West Virginia, Ben Carson is the projected winner.

Carson: 57.9%
Biden: 27%
Chafee: 14%
Others: 1.1%

In North Carolina, it is too early to call, with Carson being described as "in the lead". It is too close to call in Ohio. Let's look at the latest numbers from uncalled earlier states.

Virginia (5% in):

Carson: 48%
Biden: 33%
Chafee: 17%
Others: 2%

Georgia (3% in):

Carson: 53%
Biden: 30%
Chafee: 16%
Others: 1%

Vermont (4% in):

Biden: 48%
Chafee: 32%
Carson: 18%
Others: 2%

In none of those states do we have sufficent data from areas that actually represent the voting patterns of the state as a whole. The democratic areas in Georgia and Virginia come in very late so the margin may be misleading in those two states for quite a while.

Looking at the map, Carson now has 33 electoral votes. Still nothing for the others.

In terms of the governor's races, in West Virginia we project that Republican state senator Bill Cole will defeat Democratic state senator Jeff Kessler. That is a gain for the republicans.

Cole (R) - 57.4%
Kessler (D) - 41.6%
Others - 1%

In North Carolina it is too close to call between Incumbent Republican Governor Pat McCrory and his Democratic challenger Roy Cooper. Let's look at the latest numbers from the 7:00 closings.

Indiana Governor (16% in):

Pence (R): 50.4%
Gregg (D): 47.6%
Others: 2%

Vermont Governor (4% in):

Smith (D): 53%
Scott (R): 42%
Others: 5%

Republicans: 28 (+1)
Democrats: 10
Independents: 1

In the senate, it is considered too close to call in Ohio between Democrat Ted Strickland and Republican incumbent Rob Portman, and it is too early to call in North Carolina between Democrat Deborah Ross and Republican incumbent Richard Burr. Here's the latest numbers from the still-uncalled race in Indiana:

Indiana Senate (16% in):

Stutzman (R): 50.7%
Hill (D): 47.7%
Others: 1.6%

Democrats: 37
Republicans: 33