What major metro areas are more GOP than the state they are in as a whole?

[Torie]

Using Jimtex's perimeters of urban clusters, and using a cutoff of say 1,000,000, the only one's I can think of are Cincinnati, Phoenix, San Diego, Sacramento and Milwaukee. Have I missed any?

[Brittain33]

Using Jimtex's perimeters of urban clusters, and using a cutoff of say 1,000,000, the only one's I can think of are Cincinnati, Phoenix, San Diego, Sacramento and Milwaukee. Have I missed any?

How about Jacksonville, FL?

[Torie]

Using Jimtex's perimeters of urban clusters, and using a cutoff of say 1,000,000, the only one's I can think of are Cincinnati, Phoenix, San Diego, Sacramento and Milwaukee. Have I missed any?

How about Jacksonville, FL?

Indeed it is. And I missed Pittsburg (Pub enough by a considerable margin), Baltimore (Pub enough by a bit), and Buffalo (big enough). Missing the cut are Albany (not big enough), and Richmond (big enough barely but not Pub enough by a bit). I suppose one could check Dallas, but I doubt it makes the cut. And Indianapolis (which I had checked before), is not Pub enough.

[traininthedistance]

The Inland Empire. I guess that's kind of cheating... but if it was part of the combined Los Angeles area, would it make LA conservative enough?

Or, if you really want to get into silly technicalities... the New Jersey portion of the NYC metro area is both less Democratic than NJ as a whole, and has well over 1 million people.

[Torie]

The Inland Empire. I guess that's kind of cheating... but if it was part of the combined Los Angeles area, would it make LA conservative enough?

Maybe, even quite likely come to think of it given OC is included too and CA is so Dem overall given the Bay area swamping what's left of the state, but loading CA on the Dave utility is a masochistic exercise. Oh, Jimtex has the inland empire in a separate metro area. No dice. And in 2012, Obama got 61.9% of the two party vote in CA, and 61.7% in the LA metro, including the inland empire and Ventura county, so yes, barely, the larger LA metro area was a tad more Pub in 2012.

Or, if you really want to get into silly technicalities... the New Jersey portion of the NYC metro area is both less Democratic than NJ as a whole, and has well over 1 million people.

That doesn't count, even though it's in a separate state. I make the rules here.

[tpfkaw]

Springfield-Branson should make the cut after a few more censi.

[tpfkaw]

Springfield-Branson should make the cut after a few more censi.

Oh thought you were talking about MSAs rather than that jimrtex thread.  In that case, Buffalo is one (far from a Republican area, just less Republican than all of New York state).

[Gass3268]

Using Jimtex's perimeters of urban clusters, and using a cutoff of say 1,000,000, the only one's I can think of are Cincinnati, Phoenix, San Diego, Sacramento and Milwaukee. Have I missed any?

I had to double check Milwaukee, its close, but in 2012 it was 1.8% more GOP than the rest of the state.

[TDAS04]

Grand Rapids, Michigan.  The metro has just over 1 million people according to the 2014 estimate.

[Nyvin]

Grand Rapids, Michigan.  The metro has just over 1 million people according to the 2014 estimate.

Yup,  Michigan would be as democratic as Illinois if not for Grand Rapids.

[Torie]

Grand Rapids, Michigan.  The metro has just over 1 million people according to the 2014 estimate.

Yup,  Michigan would be as democratic as Illinois if not for Grand Rapids.

Jimtex's urban cluster is just Ottawa and Kent counties, so by that metric it's under 1 million. I checked.

[Craziaskowboi]

Using Jimtex's perimeters of urban clusters, and using a cutoff of say 1,000,000, the only one's I can think of are Cincinnati, Phoenix, San Diego, Sacramento and Milwaukee. Have I missed any?

How about Jacksonville, FL?

Indeed it is. And I missed Pittsburg (Pub enough by a considerable margin), Baltimore (Pub enough by a bit), and Buffalo (big enough). Missing the cut are Albany (not big enough), and Richmond (big enough barely but not Pub enough by a bit). I suppose one could check Dallas, but I doubt it makes the cut. And Indianapolis (which I had checked before), is not Pub enough.

I expect the Pittsburgh metropolitan area to start trending Democrat, though. Allegheny County has been trending Democrat since 2000, and the city of Pittsburgh in particular has been trending liberal Democrat. The Allegheny County Chief Executive was a moderate Republican from 1999-2003, a moderate Democrat from 2003-2011, and has been a liberal Democrat since 2011. It's also worth noting that Barack Obama still won Allegheny County minus the city of Pittsburgh in 2012, so the perception of a moderate city surrounded by conservative suburbs is obsolete. Pittsburgh is now an increasingly liberal city surrounded by moderate suburbs in Allegheny County. This data gets washed out at the metropolitan level since Allegheny County contains just over half of the metropolitan population.

Though the six outer counties in the metropolitan area have been trending Republican, four of those six counties are losing population, and the two that are gaining population aren't gaining as fast as they used to. At the same time, Allegheny County has begun gaining population again. Furthermore, the large elderly population in the metropolitan area has begun dying off in the last 10 years, and it's this elderly population that has given Pittsburgh a socially conservative reputation in the first place. The city of Pittsburgh has gotten younger since 2000, and is now younger than the national average for the first time in decades. The median age in Allegheny County is flat, and the proportion of elderly is now smaller than it used to be.

Basically, we're seeing two trends at work: a Democrat trend in a revitalized Allegheny County, and a Republican trend in the stagnant outer metropolitan counties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nothing is a better comment on the weirdness of American voting habits than the fact that Pittsburgh is actually a legit answer to this question these days. It isn't long ago that it was one of the least Republican metropolitan regions.

[RINO Tom]

I don't have much to add, but I'd like to say that I think it is WAY more interesting to look at the politics of entire metro areas rather than cities.  Even if you fancy pointing out the number of White liberals in a city, fine - that's not the reason they are Democratic, that's the reason they are SOLIDLY Democratic.  Any city beyond a certain size is going to 1) need enough low-income jobs to support that many establishments that require them (e.g., McDonald's, Wal-Mart, pretty much everywhere with multiple cashiers, etc.) and 2) a significant minority population, which the GOP is trying harder by the year to alienate.  Just about every city is going to vote Democratic, even if it's close.  Similarly, just about every wealthy, White "exurb" in the world is going to vote Republican, so the interesting part is looking at the metro as a whole (i.e., which way do the inner suburbs swing things?).  For example, I go to Indianapolis all the time (my sister goes to school there), and you would never get the impression it's a "liberal" city.  Affluent?  Educated?  Cosmopolitan?  Of course, but none of those things in and of themselves indicate "liberal."  However, given its segregated nature, the county Indianapolis is in votes Democratic ... but the metro area definitely votes Republican, and on any given day, a lot of the people walking around Indy, frequenting the restaurants and bars, don't live in the city.  Obama won 60% in Marion County (Indianapolis), but Romney won 68% in Boone, 66% in Hamilton, 69% in Hancock, 68% in Johnson, 69% in Morgan and 66% in Shelby.

[Torie]

I don't have much to add, but I'd like to say that I think it is WAY more interesting to look at the politics of entire metro areas rather than cities.  Even if you fancy pointing out the number of White liberals in a city, fine - that's not the reason they are Democratic, that's the reason they are SOLIDLY Democratic.  Any city beyond a certain size is going to 1) need enough low-income jobs to support that many establishments that require them (e.g., McDonald's, Wal-Mart, pretty much everywhere with multiple cashiers, etc.) and 2) a significant minority population, which the GOP is trying harder by the year to alienate.  Just about every city is going to vote Democratic, even if it's close.  Similarly, just about every wealthy, White "exurb" in the world is going to vote Republican, so the interesting part is looking at the metro as a whole (i.e., which way do the inner suburbs swing things?).  For example, I go to Indianapolis all the time (my sister goes to school there), and you would never get the impression it's a "liberal" city.  Affluent?  Educated?  Cosmopolitan?  Of course, but none of those things in and of themselves indicate "liberal."  However, given its segregated nature, the county Indianapolis is in votes Democratic ... but the metro area definitely votes Republican, and on any given day, a lot of the people walking around Indy, frequenting the restaurants and bars, don't live in the city.  Obama won 60% in Marion County (Indianapolis), but Romney won 68% in Boone, 66% in Hamilton, 69% in Hancock, 68% in Johnson, 69% in Morgan and 66% in Shelby.

Back in the day, the Pubs used to say hey the fastest growing counties in the state are Pub so the future is ours. I laughed, because while that may have been true, the core county with the inner city was getting more Dem. So one has to look at metro areas as a whole to get a better picture. These days, as exurbia loses its cachet, sometimes in is the inner cities that are growing the fastest in the state. That is certainly true of NYC. As to the Indianapolis metro area, while still Pub, I suspect it has trended Dem overall, offset by the Pub trend in rural areas, particularly southern Indiana. The Columbus metro area in Ohio has gone Dem. The Dem trend there has been strong, but TJ suggests that much of it is just Democrats moving there from the Cleveland area, which is losing population.

[ElectionsGuy]

As far as I know the Milwaukee metro is slightly more R than Wisconsin as a whole.

[King of Kensington]

Nothing is a better comment on the weirdness of American voting habits than the fact that Pittsburgh is actually a legit answer to this question these days. It isn't long ago that it was one of the least Republican metropolitan regions.

Yup back when people voted for Democrats as "the labor party."

[All Along The Watchtower]

What about the metro area I'm visiting this weekend (Phoenix, AZ/Maricopa County)?

[Torie]

What about the metro area I'm visiting this weekend (Phoenix, AZ/Maricopa County)?

I listed that one in my opening post.

[All Along The Watchtower]

What about the metro area I'm visiting this weekend (Phoenix, AZ/Maricopa County)?

I listed that one in my opening post.

That's what I get for not reading carefully.