Marist: Hillary leads all 17 candidates by between 5-21 points

[Tender Branson]

Also, 3-way:

44% Clinton (D)
29% Bush (R)
20% Trump (I)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/731-trump-as-independent-gives-new-meaning-to-name-billary

[Tender Branson]

So Hillary is trailing the Republicans or tied with them in many swing states but leading them nationally? Hmmm....

Summer polls are always bad.

But I think the fact that Hillary is doing badly in states like CO and IA is A) because she was always doing badly in these states and B) because the Republicans ran a couple million worth of anti-Hillary ads in recent months in the swing states of 2012. It could mean that Hillary does badly in the swing states, but makes up the margins elsewhere for a decent national lead against Bush etc.

[RJEvans]

So Hillary is trailing the Republicans or tied with them in many swing states but leading them nationally? Hmmm....

It's weird. Imagine a ridiculous outcome where she wins the popular vote by 3-4 points yet loses the electoral college. Oh the horror for both parties. And really for the country. Imagine denying the first woman to be popularly elected as President the chance to be inaugurated because of an archaic electoral system developed before women could even vote.

I just happen to think CO and IA are a poor fit for her. She'll likely lose the states to Bush or Rubio and win one against Walker. But these states won't matter if she is strong in OH, VA and FL.

[Skye]

So Hillary is trailing the Republicans or tied with them in many swing states but leading them nationally? Hmmm....

inb4 Hillary performing well in the South, the mountain states and the Great Plains.

[Mehmentum]

Its hard to see where she'd be overperforming if she's underperforming in the swing states.  My best guess would be blue states, but A) I find it hard to believe that 2016 will be more polarized than 2012, and B) the PPP Illinois poll seems to contradict that.

[Nyvin]

I think the Quinnipiac polls are kinda showing a closer race then it is.   They're literally the only ones that had numbers showing the GOP so far ahead.

[Likely Voter]

I wonder if Marist did primary polling. Seems weird to just do general election. Maybe they are holding release to ensure they are in Fox final five

EDIT: I looked back and every single past Marist general election poll also included a primary poll. It seems inconceivable that this time they didn't.

[Matty]

This sample was D+11. Throw it in the trash.

[Mehmentum]

This sample was D+11. Throw it in the trash.

I see D+8.  33% Democrat, 25% Republican, 40% independent.

2012 was D+6.  It may be slightly left leaning, but not trash-worthy.

[Nyvin]

Which is a change since in 2012 Marist was bias in favor of Republicans slightly.

[Likely Voter]

Bear in mind that this is RV not LV, which means if party ID were a static thing (which it isnt) you would expect more Ds anyway. But party ID is fluid. This poll is consistent with all the other July polls except for Quinni.

Just look at the Bush/Clinton numbers
Quinnipiac   7/23 - 7/28    Bush +1
McClatchy/Marist   7/22 - 7/28    Clinton +6
CNN/Opinion Research   7/22 - 7/25    Clinton +5
PPP (D)   7/20 - 7/21   1087 RV   3.0    Clinton +5
ABC News/Wash Post   7/16 - 7/19    Clinton +6
USA Today/Suffolk   7/9 - 7/12   1000 LV    Clinton +4

So are we now to say Quinni = right, all others = junk?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton is doing well enough probably to win CO or OH or Va to win the natl election. Just enough to clinch 270.


But, this poll is bad news for Jeb; who was suppose to consolidate the conservative base by now, and lead in some surveys against Clinton.

He is feeling more like Mitt Romney now, how this race is slipping away.

[Mehmentum]

Something interesting is that Clinton's support actually drops by 5 points when Trump is added.  That means that 5% of Americans are like "I hate Bush and Clinton's alright, but you know who I really want to be president? Donald Trump."

I'm really curious to see who's order of preference is Trump-Clinton-Bush.  Who are these people?

[Skill and Chance]

Something interesting is that Clinton's support actually drops by 5 points when Trump is added.  That means that 5% of Americans are like "I hate Bush and Clinton's alright, but you know who I really want to be president? Donald Trump."

I'm really curious to see who's order of preference is Trump-Clinton-Bush.  Who are these people?

White male union members strongly opposed to immigration.

[IceSpear]

Hillary is inevitable of course, but it seems kind of silly to test her against people like Pataki/Gilmore yet not test Sanders against anybody.

[eric82oslo]

The only one less likely to become president of the 22 other than Carly Fiorina is in fact Jim Gilmore. LOL. I like her style, but I mostly hate her on her Fox talk on every issue. When Yahoo! confronted her With the fact that 90% of the adult US population supports stricter background laws in order to sell weapons, she basically said that she wouldn't support any closing on loopholes until a Mexican border fence was being built or something like that. Most of her interview went amazingly well, clearly she had rehearsed for years, but when I heard that she opposed a common sense proposal supported by 90% of US Citizens, including at least 80% of Republicans, I knew that my initial intense hate of her had a strong reason LOL.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

QU is probably more accurate; as this race is within margin of error, pure tossup.

Probably 43-43 Jeb v. Clinton.

[bobloblaw]

Among the top GOP candidates Clinton is underperforming Obama by 2-4 points.

[Mehmentum]

Among the top GOP candidates Clinton is underperforming Obama by 2-4 points.

Obama beat Romney by 4 points in 2012.  In this poll Clinton is leading Bush by 6 points.

I suppose that you must mean that since she's at 47 - 49% in this poll, that means she's 'trailing' Obama's 51% performance in 2012.  Of course, by that measure the leading Republicans are trailing Romney by 4 to 6 points in this poll.

[Kingpoleon]

"And, in 2016, Clinton crushed John Kasich 49-39, with third parties getting twelve percent."

- Accuracy of these polls

[Mehmentum]

"And, in 2016, Clinton crushed John Kasich 49-39, with third parties getting twelve percent."

- Accuracy of these polls

Do you know what 'undecided' means?

[Nyvin]

"And, in 2016, Clinton crushed John Kasich 49-39, with third parties getting twelve percent."

- Accuracy of these polls

That's....not how a poll works...

[Kingpoleon]

"And, in 2016, Clinton crushed John Kasich 49-39, with third parties getting twelve percent."

- Accuracy of these polls

That's....not how a poll works...

The title shows a few odd results, but with name recognition, it's not surprising that Clinton is beating some by ~20%. Combined with the MOE, I'm going to point out it could be as close as two points.

There's no need to go into "OMG! 2000 mode again! Ban the Electoral College!"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As long as Trump keeps leading, Hilary will have poll numbers like this, as voters in GE will flock to her.

[DS0816]

So Hillary is trailing the Republicans or tied with them in many swing states but leading them nationally? Hmmm....

Well, let's remember how consistent the 2012 polls were with state-vs.-nationwide comparisons.

After that, we can STFU about the notion of getting too caught up in this here in August 2015.