Reuters primary polling: tracking thread.
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Author Topic: Reuters primary polling: tracking thread.  (Read 48342 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #125 on: November 11, 2015, 02:33:49 AM »
We'll see
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Ebsy
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« Reply #126 on: November 11, 2015, 02:39:38 PM »
It will be amusing to come back to this thread after Iowa and see jfern's delusional ranting.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #127 on: November 11, 2015, 10:26:01 PM »
#Gilmorementum
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Penelope
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« Reply #128 on: November 11, 2015, 11:02:08 PM »
I know these polls are sh**t, but the fact that Kasich is below Gilmore is really hilarious.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #129 on: November 11, 2015, 11:12:51 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on November 11, 2015, 12:36:32 AM
desperate Sanders fans are clinging to meaningless movements in low quality polls as their candidate's campaign comes crashing down nationally and in all the early states...

very sad

No some MSNBC thing that no one watched cause a fourteen-point surge for #BurnItDown
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #130 on: November 13, 2015, 12:33:17 AM »
Five day rolling average through Nov. 10:

Dems

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151106-20151110/type/day

Clinton 52%
Sanders 33%
O’Malley 4%

GOP

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151106-20151110/type/day

Trump 30%
Carson 20%
Rubio 8%
Cruz 8%
Fiorina 6%
Bush 5%
Huckabee 4%
Christie 3%
Paul 2%
Kasich 2%
Gilmore 2%
Santorum 2%
Graham 1%
Jindal, Pataki 0%
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jfern
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« Reply #131 on: November 13, 2015, 12:39:55 AM »
Quote from: Sen. Oakvale on November 11, 2015, 11:12:51 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on November 11, 2015, 12:36:32 AM
desperate Sanders fans are clinging to meaningless movements in low quality polls as their candidate's campaign comes crashing down nationally and in all the early states...

very sad

No some MSNBC thing that no one watched cause a fourteen-point surge for #BurnItDown

OK, it was probably just too pro Hillary a week before. The CBS poll that just came out exactly agrees with Reuters now.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #132 on: November 14, 2015, 03:01:21 AM »
Five day rolling average through Nov. 13:

Dems

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151109-20151113/type/day

Clinton 56%
Sanders 31%
O’Malley 3%

GOP (change since the last purely pre-debate poll in parentheses)

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151109-20151113/type/day

Trump 34% (+3)
Carson 20% (-2)
Rubio 10% (+3)
Cruz 8% (no change)
Bush 6% (-2)
Huckabee 4% (no change)
Fiorina 4% (-1)
Paul 3% (no change)
Kasich 2% (no change)
Santorum 1% (-1)
Christie 1% (-1)
Jindal 1% (+1)
Graham 1% (no change)
Pataki 0% (no change)
Gilmore 0% (-2)
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #133 on: November 14, 2015, 11:42:20 AM »
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0T22HB20151113
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/LIKELY_PRIMARY15:1,PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151109-20151113/type/day

According to the five-day rolling Reuters/Ipsos presidential poll, Trump has leapt some 17 percentage points among likely Republican voters since Nov. 6, when he was essentially tied with Ben Carson at about 25 percent. Trump now captures 42 percent of those voters while Carson has fallen off slightly.

Despite receiving rave notices for his past two debate performance, Rubio’s support has remained flat, with about 10 percent of likely Republican primary voters preferring him.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #134 on: November 15, 2015, 03:34:36 AM »
#Trumpmentum
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #135 on: November 19, 2015, 08:55:18 PM »
5 day rolling average ending on Nov. 18:

http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15090

Dems

Clinton 52%
Sanders 31%
O’Malley 4%

GOP

Trump 37%
Carson 14%
Rubio 11%
Cruz 8%
Bush 6%
Paul 5%
Huckabee 3%
Fiorina 3%
Christie 3%
Kasich 2%
Jindal 1%
Santorum 1%
Graham, Pataki, Gilmore 0%

3-way GOP matchup

Trump 43%
Carson 26%
Rubio 25%

Trendline of all national polls:
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Holmes
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« Reply #136 on: November 19, 2015, 09:19:59 PM »
Oh man... lol...
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jfern
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« Reply #137 on: November 19, 2015, 09:26:36 PM »
The Republican race is now the closer one, LOL.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #138 on: November 19, 2015, 10:28:31 PM »

I think you meant that the other way around.
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jfern
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« Reply #139 on: November 19, 2015, 11:03:07 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on November 19, 2015, 10:28:31 PM

I think you meant that the other way around.


Ooops, yes.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #140 on: November 20, 2015, 12:16:27 AM »
Wow trump is crushing the GOP field.
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jfern
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« Reply #141 on: November 20, 2015, 05:56:54 PM »
« Edited: November 20, 2015, 06:01:07 PM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »
Wow, 2 polls today with Hillary under 50%. NBC was the other one.

Nov 20.
Clinton 48.9
Sanders 34.0
O'Malley 3.7

The Republican side is much less close.
Trump 38.8
Carson 14.3
Rubio 11.1
Cruz 7.4
Bush 6.3
Paul 5.1
Huckabee 2.8
Fiornia 2.5
Christie 2.5
Kasich 2.5
Santorum 1.1
Jindal 0.5
Graham 0.5
Pataki 0.4
Gilmore 0.2


The are the 3 closest Democratic polls without Biden
This Reuter poll 49-34
IBD/TIPP poll from a couple weeks ago 49-34
NBC poll release today 49-33
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #142 on: November 20, 2015, 06:43:58 PM »
Clinton is the opposite of Trump, where she does worse in the online polls (like Reuters and NBC/Survey Monkey)

Just online polls


Just phone polls (live and IVR/Automated)
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #143 on: November 20, 2015, 07:08:06 PM »
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 20, 2015, 05:56:54 PM
Wow, 2 polls today with Hillary under 50%. NBC was the other one.

Nov 20.
Clinton 48.9
Sanders 34.0
O'Malley 3.7

The Republican side is much less close.
Trump 38.8
Carson 14.3
Rubio 11.1
Cruz 7.4
Bush 6.3
Paul 5.1
Huckabee 2.8
Fiornia 2.5
Christie 2.5
Kasich 2.5
Santorum 1.1
Jindal 0.5
Graham 0.5
Pataki 0.4
Gilmore 0.2


The are the 3 closest Democratic polls without Biden
This Reuter poll 49-34
IBD/TIPP poll from a couple weeks ago 49-34
NBC poll release today 49-33

Yeah, Wow...
I'll make sure to post when shes back up into the mid-50s by the middle of next week. Just like 10 days ago, the movement in these polls make them hard to take seriously.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #144 on: November 25, 2015, 12:41:12 AM »
Five day rolling average through Nov. 24:

Dems

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151120-20151124/type/day

Clinton 54%
Sanders 34%
O’Malley 5%

GOP (change since the last purely pre-debate poll in parentheses)

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151120-20151124/type/day

Trump 38%
Cruz 12%
Carson 12%
Rubio 8%
Bush 6%
Huckabee 3%
Kasich 3%
Fiorina 3%
Gilmore 3%
Paul 2%
Christie 2%
Pataki 1%
Santorum 0%

Gilmore rebound!
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #145 on: November 25, 2015, 04:46:24 AM »
Wow thats a huge collapse for Carson.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #146 on: November 25, 2015, 09:15:37 PM »
5 day rolling average through Nov. 25:

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2015ReutersTrackingCorePolitical112515.pdf

Dems
Clinton 58%
Sanders 30%
O’Malley 6%

Republicans
Trump 37%
Cruz 11%
Rubio 10%
Carson 9%
Bush 6%
Christie 4%
Fiorina 3%
Huckabee 3%
Gilmore 3%
Kasich 3%
Paul 2%
Pataki 2%
Santorum, Graham 0%

3-way
Trump 46%
Rubio 25%
Carson 24%
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #147 on: November 25, 2015, 09:20:28 PM »
It seems that some people, following the Paris attacks, went on Wikipedia and saw that Gilmore and Pataki were Governors of Virginia and New York (respectively) during 9/11.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #148 on: November 25, 2015, 09:22:29 PM »
Taking al the national pollsters together, here are live interview phone polls only:



And internet polls only:



It seems that ~10% of Republican voters support Carson on the phone and Trump on the internet.  Tongue
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jfern
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« Reply #149 on: November 25, 2015, 09:56:19 PM »
The tracking poll has different numbers. They're as of the 24th, and
Clinton 54.0
Sanders 34.0
O'Malley 4.6

Sample size is smaller than usual, 383.
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