2016 Republican Nomination Poll - August 2015

[Senator Cris]

2nd half of July results:

Bush 40.6%
Rubio 14.1%
Trump 14.1%
Kasich 10.9%
Walker 9.4%
Cruz 4.7%
Carson 3.1%
Paul 1.6%
Jindal 1.6%

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Bush unless Walker really distinguishes himself in the debates. Rubio is dead in the water.

[Phony Moderate]

The guy who is leading in the polls.

[Bull Moose Base]

Bush unless Walker really distinguishes himself in the debates. Rubio is dead in the water.

I don't think doing well in debates has been much of a boost in any of the last 3 GOP cycles, except by avoiding the minus of making a giant, headline-generating mistake.

But maybe with the excess of so-cons, it will matter more this time.

The guy who is leading in the polls.

That's been the board's M.O. on these polls.

[mencken]

The establishment somehow drags Bush over the finish line despite losing Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

[Bull Moose Base]

The establishment somehow drags Bush over the finish line despite losing Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Never happened before but there's a first time for everything. If those first 3 are won by some combination of pariahs, conceivably it could happen, but if it's one from Walker/Rubio/Kasich against a pariah, party leaders would likely rally to their preferred survivor. On the other hand, the "establishment" is neither monolithic nor omnipotent. The RNC has been trying to take down Trump for a few weeks but he's been buoyed by FOX News who has no desire to see him go away. I feel like people are exaggerating the establishment's power because of Romney's nomination but his opponents were very weak. I don't think Bush is definitively done if he loses NH but he's gravely damaged.

[The Other Castro]

I've been on Rubio for the past 2 or 3 months, but I'm switching to Kasich now.

[tmthforu94]

John Kasich. I think he is already erasing concerns that he is the "2016 Jon Huntsman."

[Bull Moose Base]

John Kasich. I think he is already erasing concerns that he is the "2016 Jon Huntsman."

He is?

In general with Kasich, it seems a bit like picking a wildcard team to win the World Series. Not impossible- last year's was between 2 wild cards- but he seems less likely to win just by having more hurdles to clear. It's certainly more likely Walker wins Iowa than Kasich wins New Hampshire. And further on, after an early state win, Kasich would run into more resistance from conservatives than Walker would. Not saying Kasich is as improbable as Paul, but the idea he's a more likely to be nominated than Walker seems ridiculous to me, even considering the likelihood Walker's corruption blows up in his face.

[mencken]

The establishment somehow drags Bush over the finish line despite losing Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Never happened before but there's a first time for everything. If those first 3 are won by some combination of pariahs, conceivably it could happen, but if it's one from Walker/Rubio/Kasich against a pariah, party leaders would likely rally to their preferred survivor. On the other hand, the "establishment" is neither monolithic nor omnipotent. The RNC has been trying to take down Trump for a few weeks but he's been buoyed by FOX News who has no desire to see him go away. I feel like people are exaggerating the establishment's power because of Romney's nomination but his opponents were very weak. I don't think Bush is definitively done if he loses NH but he's gravely damaged.

Romney winning despite losing South Carolina to Gingrich and the Santorum insurgency demonstrated that the establishment will ultimately win a game of attrition, even if one of the arbitrary metrics from past primary cycles is broken. Walker or some socon will win Iowa, Kasich or Trump will win New Hampshire, a different socon will win South Carolina and go on to sweep the Southern Super Tuesday states, Bush will pour gobs of money into the subsequent contests until he eventually wins a primary, then the establishment will move the goalposts to retroactively make that win a fatal blow to his anti-establishment opponent.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm going with Cruz. I think once Trump gets bored, he'll endorse Cruz (who has toadied up to Trump the most) who will seem like the reasonable choice, relative to The Don.

[Suburbia]

Kasich, Rubio, or Bush.

[Mr. Morden]

The guy who is leading in the polls.

That's been the board's M.O. on these polls.

Walker was the board's consensus frontrunner before he was leading in the polls.  Now Bush is the consensus frontrunner, even though he's not leading in the polls.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bush.

[pikachu]

Walker.

I'm still skeptical about Bush's inevitability.

[Mr. Morden]

I am kind of on Bush as most likely, but I still think it's close between him and Walker.

Those people saying that Trump's emergence goes to Bush's benefit because he's the sane alternative people will rally around to squash Trump...is Bush really the best candidate to do that?  Bush is unpopular with a decent share of the GOP primary electorate, and doesn't seem like the ideal slayer of Trump.

Walker might be a better option to undermine the Donald, though he also has a better chance of self-destructing than Bush.  As I've said before, if Walker looks like a strong bet to win Iowa while Trump is romping in the polls elsewhere, then Walker could get his fair share of elite support.  (I'm assuming that that Iowa Gravis poll is wrong, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.)

Oh well, I'll be eager to see how Walker performs in this week's NH forum and the Fox debate.  He has less experience playing at this national media level than many/most of his opponents, and I'm not sure how he's going to do.

[Flake]

[Mr. Morden]

And was Herman Cain the most likely GOP nominee when he was leading in the polls?

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I've been on Rubio for the past 2 or 3 months, but I'm switching to Kasich now.

Same here. Assuming that he's in the first debate, I expect Kasich's numbers to rise over the next couple of weeks.

[morgieb]

Think it'll come down to Trump vs. anti-Trump. I don't see Trump winning the nomination, given when the field contracts he's not likely to pick up a lot of support.

If Walker can avoid an implosion (which I'm skeptical of given what we've seen so far), he has a good chance given he seems unusually strong in Iowa. If he does struggle, then Bush will probably get the nomination, so I voted for him.

Kasich is an interesting one, but I don't think he stands out enough. The early states don't suit him either IMO.

[Spark]

I support Walker 100%

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

OK who voted for Lindsey Graham?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Going with Walker after switching between Bush and Rubio the last couple months.  Still wide open.

[Kingpoleon]

Kasich - organization, charm, and charisma.

I expect him and Huckabee to shine in the debates.

[Leinad]

I'm guessing Walker. He's probably around 2nd in conservative appeal behind Cruz, and the establishment won't resist a Walker surge as much as they would Cruz or Trump.

The Recipe for the Nomination (according to Leinad) is to do one of the following: 1) get all the establishment behind you, 2)get all the conservatives behind you, 3) get most of each, or 4) get a good bit from those two and get other voters (disaffecteds, libertarians, non-establishment moderates, independents, etc.).

Jeb seems like the only guy who can do 1). Kasich or Christie might could, but it would be hard to beat Jeb on that. Although I think it's likely the establishment is split: with most going for Bush, but some going for Kasich, Christie, and Rubio. Jeb needs to get them all; he doesn't appeal to other voters enough to get 3) or 4).

Cruz might be the only one who can do 2), although Walker might could get that as well. I think it's unlikely anyone does--it's often a fractured faction, like last time with Santorum and Gingrich splitting the vote. Guys like Huckabee and Santorum don't appeal to fiscons, guys like Paul don't appeal to socons, and guys like Jindal and Perry will need several candidates to collapse in order to gain polling traction.

Walker and Rubio are the only guys who can go 3).

4) is how someone like Rand could get it, or someone like Trump, Carson, or Kasich with the former two having almost zero chance of gaining ground with the establishment, and Kasich not likely to do well among conservatives (though not nearly as bad as some) and having an obstacle in the establishment (Jeb), but I still see it unlikely: the nominee will need to gain some ground with either main faction to win, and none of these guys have much of a chance to do it; but maybe I'm wrong (hopefully, as it's Rand's only shot).