Merkel running for 4th term

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Merkel would never enter a coalition with the Petry-AfD.

Even if FDP were unavailable and the only other option were yet another grand coalition with the SDP?

[ingemann]

Merkel would never enter a coalition with the Petry-AfD.

Even if FDP were unavailable and the only other option were yet another grand coalition with the SDP?

Why should she have a problem with another grand coalition? She seem to have a lot better working relationship with SPD than she had with FDP and AFD are a lot worse, so why should she enter the coalition with a bunch of people who in best case are just right wing crazies. In worst case she destroy the taboo SPD has with working with the Linke, if Merkel decides to work with right wing crazies.

[Cranberry]

Merkel would never enter a coalition with the Petry-AfD.

Even if FDP were unavailable and the only other option were yet another grand coalition with the SDP?

Since Merkel is completely devoid of any ideology but stalwart extrem centrism, she has no problem at all with opting for the SDP as coalition partner, same as she would not with the FDP and probably also the Greens. She does have problems with any sort of "radicalism", to put it that way, anything a bit further to the right or the left of the aforementioned parties; so coalitions with AfD or any other rightist party that may arise in the future are an absolute no-go for the Merkel CDU.

There's also still the old "catchphrase" of former Bavarian MP Franz Josef-Strauß - "no established party to the right of the CSU" - so CDU/CSU will go to great lengths to ensure nothing to the right of them gets "established". A coalition with the AfD would just be "establishing" them, so there is another reason to oppose that.

I liked that the politico article mentioned both Kohl and Bismark, not sure if Merkel will rank as high as them. Is she likely to win?

She is dead set to win. The question is more by how much she will win, that she will win is out of question.

Well I suppose hypothetically (assuming the FDP fail to get back in) there could be a broad red-red-green coalition, if the lefties are collectively sick of being the junior whipping boys.

Polls in Germany have been so boring lately.

I don't think any coalition with the Linke on the federal level is likely in the near future. The Linke still has the old SED/DDR/Stasi-feeling attached far too much for it ever (at least in nearer future) to be "mainstream" enough to be accepted into a federal German governing coalition. If the SPD entered an official coalition with the Linke, it would be near political suicide, at least in West Germany, and would deliver the CDU (and moreso the CSU) material for thirty years. The only scenario of something like that remotely possible, from today's standpoint, would be if there was a SPD-Grüne minority government relying on support from the Linke, which would be exactly as unstable as it sounds, and crash after three months because whoever leads the Linke at that point becomes either bored or outraged that the government does not immediately transform Germany into a Stalinist dictature.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Worth noting the SPD is in every state government bar Hesse and Bayern, and normally in the senior role. They have 9 Minister Presidents, the Christians have just 5 and the Greens/Linke 1 each.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Kohl was just one of several conservative, anti-Communist Western leaders in the 80s, overshadowed by Reagan and Thatcher. Merkel is the leader of her own little bloc though. She's a leader in global politics rather than a passenger. She will be a larger figure in history than Kohl for sure.

Of course that's also a result of a Germany changing from a country the size of France or UK to one significant stronger with their own sphere of influence to the east (which ironic are welcomed today, I think Merkel really need to thank both Putin and the French government, for the northern east Europeans seeing Berlin as representants for their interests).

That may not last that much though because Germany is losing population while France gains.
If the current pattern is sustained then in a few years the latter will surpass the former not only in terms of population but also of GDP.

That's quite wrong: Germany had a population increase of 400.000 people last year (+0.5%), while France had +300.000 people (+0.4%).

That must be a first in years then because I remember the articles you were posting about Germany's consistently shrinking population. Perhaps it's result of the crisis because I know for sure than many young Greeks left for Germany since 2010 in search for a job. I assume the same thing happened with the other countries.

[Tender Branson]

Kohl was just one of several conservative, anti-Communist Western leaders in the 80s, overshadowed by Reagan and Thatcher. Merkel is the leader of her own little bloc though. She's a leader in global politics rather than a passenger. She will be a larger figure in history than Kohl for sure.

Of course that's also a result of a Germany changing from a country the size of France or UK to one significant stronger with their own sphere of influence to the east (which ironic are welcomed today, I think Merkel really need to thank both Putin and the French government, for the northern east Europeans seeing Berlin as representants for their interests).

That may not last that much though because Germany is losing population while France gains.
If the current pattern is sustained then in a few years the latter will surpass the former not only in terms of population but also of GDP.

That's quite wrong: Germany had a population increase of 400.000 people last year (+0.5%), while France had +300.000 people (+0.4%).

That must be a first in years then because I remember the articles you were posting about Germany's consistently shrinking population. Perhaps it's result of the crisis because I know for sure than many young Greeks left for Germany since 2010 in search for a job. I assume the same thing happened with the other countries.

Population growth in Germany is a two-edged sword and a complicated matter, especially recently with the influx of migrants:

During the 1990s, Germany's population went up by ca. 3 million - while from 2000 to 2010 it basically stagnated.

Then, the 2011 Census showed that the population was overestimated by some 1.5 Mio. people - mostly because foreigners (who are required to de-register at their municipality when moving abroad again) did not do so.

That's why the Census found the population at just 80.2 instead of the 81.7 Mio. that was estimated.

But since then, the population has increased to 81.5 Mio. again, as of July 2015 - a gain of 1.3 million in 4 years.

This year, it is expected that the German population will grow by 600.000 - a new record. While the natural balance will be strongly negative again (150.000 more deaths than births), the migration gain will be huge (+750.000).

If this trend continues, then the population should be about 84-85 million by the 2021 Census.

But then we are back to the "de-registering"-problem of foreigners: The Census could show a significanly lower population again, because foreigners could simply have moved out of the country again without deregistering at the city offices and the actual Census population is likely 82-83 million.

Anyway, France won't overtake Germany in population in the next 30 years, nor will its GDP (the French economic performance is much weaker than Germany's).

[Leinad]

Hmmm...what are the chances that the FDP get to the threshold and have seats again?

[DavidB.]

Hmmm...what are the chances that the FDP get to the threshold and have seats again?

These chances are increasing now AfD is destroying itself from the inside, but we have to see how it works out.

By the way: Merkel's decision gives the SPD a good shot to "win" the 2021 elections. People don't seem to get tired of Merkel, but she's much more popular than her party, and if she leaves, this might backfire on the party.

[windjammer]

That will be CDU-FDP or CDU-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

That will be CDU-FDP or CDU-Greens.

By 2017, Merkel could be so popular that CDU/CSU win their own parliamentary majority after years of budget consolidation and debt being reduced from 85% of GDP to 70%, millions of jobs created and rising wages, as well as political stability.

That's at least what the polls show right now: CDU/CSU are just as strong as SPD/Greens/Left combined, with the FDP and AfD below the threshold.

[Famous Mortimer]

Merkel prefers to govern with the SPD.

The only reason she wouldn't is if the SPD refused.

[President Johnson]

Merkel prefers to govern with the SPD.

The only reason she wouldn't is if the SPD refused.

A few months ago, she stated that she regrets, that the Greens refused the form a coaltion in 2013. But I regard this as a likely option, becuase the Greens really want to govern. Their 2013 platform was much on the left (they wanted more tax increases than the SPD); so they won't make this mistake again in 2017.

[Simfan34]

I'm not sure how this would be boring. With these polls it's entirely unclear whether or not Merkel will either be able to muster a majority or have the FDP around to be coalition partners.

[Beezer]

It's boring because we already know Merkel will stay in power. The SPD needs a Corbyn of their own, somebody who changes the narrative of the party. I don't think a leftist government would be good for Germany but it would be good for politics since we need more polarization. Right now plenty of people don't give a crap about politics and if it wasn't for their inept leaders, a right-wing populist party could do incredibly well in the country. If people don't want more voters staying at home or moving to the fringes, we need a truely leftist SPD.

[Simfan34]

You already have Die Linke.

[politicus]

You already have Die Linke.

Lafontaine & Co never managed to turn Die Linke into a Left SocDem party. It has too much bagage and its very existence blocks the advance of a credible leftist alternative.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

You already have Die Linke.

Lafontaine & Co never managed to turn Die Linke into a Left SocDem party. It has too much bagage and its very existence blocks the advance of a credible leftist alternative.

Granted, the most recent vote share maps for each party that a quick Google found for me were for 2005, but it looks like the Greens fill that role in West Germany. What stands in the way of a Green/Left merger? Personalities or something more substantial?

[ZuWo]

I predict that Merkel will run for a fourth term, secure her party a narrow majority on its own and step down about two years later. And then, at the 2021 federal election, the CDU/CSU and the new chancellor (von der Leyen?) will crash and burn.

[politicus]

You already have Die Linke.

Lafontaine & Co never managed to turn Die Linke into a Left SocDem party. It has too much bagage and its very existence blocks the advance of a credible leftist alternative.

Granted, the most recent vote share maps for each party that a quick Google found for me were for 2005, but it looks like the Greens fill that role in West Germany. What stands in the way of a Green/Left merger? Personalities or something more substantial?

Something a lot more substantial. Very different parties, but I better let someone more knowledgeable of German politics answer that in depth.

Still, a quick answer: Greens are middle class, fairly pragmatic and social liberal on a number of areas, Linke is old-SED infested in the East and Autonome/"activist" infested in the West. None of them are Left SDs with appeal to "the common man" (although Linke of course have those in the East).

[Yeahsayyeah]

I think the "Die Linke is nowhere near a left social democrat party" is way overblown in this thread.

Initially the Greens drew their support from socialist to conservative ecologist and pacifist groups and other "new social movements" and also happened to be a vacuum-cleaner for many of the small "communist" groups of the seventies (the so called K-Gruppen) that wanted to do serious politics, now. What came out of these processes happened to be left of the SPD at least until the nineties.

Left labour movements were also part of this, but these issues have become much less important over time as the original, often well educated supporters have become older and more affluent and the Greens have tried to reach out more to the "political center". Today "socialism" is a fringe view inside the Greens. To use the forum meme, as a broad generalization the party as a whole they are socially more liberal, but fiscally more conservative then the SPD, today.

The Left is a more complicated beast. In the east they represent old GDR nostalgists, kind of higly educated, middle-aged people, dissatisfied with the socioeconomic results of the German unification, marginalised people to some extent and youngish left-wing activist people.
When in government they have acted as pragmatic left-wing social democrats.

In the West they represent the remnants of the 70ies "New Left", dissatisfied left-wing Social Democrats and Greens, marginalised people to some extent, youngish activists and weird left-wing fringe groups.

[Simfan34]

You already have Die Linke.

Lafontaine & Co never managed to turn Die Linke into a Left SocDem party. It has too much bagage and its very existence blocks the advance of a credible leftist alternative.

I was speaking of Jeremy Corbyn more specifically.

It remains to be seen if left-wing social democrats can appeal to a broader audience generally, anyway. Throw in the Greens and they're already at 20%. Outside of Greece, where has a party to the left of mainstream social democratic party done better than that? Even Podemos is polling in that range.

Most usually, such parties struggle to get over 10%. Their room for improval is questionable.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

You already have Die Linke.

Lafontaine & Co never managed to turn Die Linke into a Left SocDem party. It has too much bagage and its very existence blocks the advance of a credible leftist alternative.

I was speaking of Jeremy Corbyn more specifically.

It remains to be seen if left-wing social democrats can appeal to a broader audience generally, anyway. Throw in the Greens and they're already at 20%. Outside of Greece, where has a party to the left of mainstream social democratic party done better than that? Even Podemos is polling in that range.

Most usually, such parties struggle to get over 10%. Their room for improval is questionable.

Maybe this is more idiosyncratic than you are looking for, but the Icelandic Pirates?

Needless to say, the amount of Greens who would be happy with a coalition with the CDU would seem to indicate a Linke-Green merger is a long way off. Unless the party underwent a Swiss style schism.

[RogueBeaver]

Gabriel's facing a fair bit of intraparty criticism, with one SPD governor even publicly suggesting that they not field a chancellor candidate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Gabriel's facing a fair bit of intraparty criticism, with one SPD governor even publicly suggesting that they not field a chancellor candidate.

This Albig guy seems to be a complete moron. Saying "we're doomed, let's not even pretend we're running to win" is always the stupidest electoral strategy, even when it's true.

[RogueBeaver]

The German equivalent of Peak Butskellism, but it won't happen.