Merkel running for 4th term (user search)
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  Merkel running for 4th term (search mode)
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Author Topic: Merkel running for 4th term  (Read 6267 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: August 01, 2015, 01:24:15 PM »

Kohl was just one of several conservative, anti-Communist Western leaders in the 80s, overshadowed by Reagan and Thatcher. Merkel is the leader of her own little bloc though. She's a leader in global politics rather than a passenger. She will be a larger figure in history than Kohl for sure.

Of course that's also a result of a Germany changing from a country the size of France or UK to one significant stronger with their own sphere of influence to the east (which ironic are welcomed today, I think Merkel really need to thank both Putin and the French government, for the northern east Europeans seeing Berlin as representants for their interests).

That may not last that much though because Germany is losing population while France gains.
If the current pattern is sustained then in a few years the latter will surpass the former not only in terms of population but also of GDP.

That's quite wrong: Germany had a population increase of 400.000 people last year (+0.5%), while France had +300.000 people (+0.4%).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2015, 02:44:14 PM »

Supposing that both the FDP and the AfD manage to just pass the 5% threshold and that Merkel only needs one of them to form a government, which would she likely prefer, or would she try to take both so as to have a more stable government?

Merkel would never enter a coalition with the Petry-AfD.

The FDP on the other hand would be an option of course.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2015, 12:29:29 AM »

Kohl was just one of several conservative, anti-Communist Western leaders in the 80s, overshadowed by Reagan and Thatcher. Merkel is the leader of her own little bloc though. She's a leader in global politics rather than a passenger. She will be a larger figure in history than Kohl for sure.

Of course that's also a result of a Germany changing from a country the size of France or UK to one significant stronger with their own sphere of influence to the east (which ironic are welcomed today, I think Merkel really need to thank both Putin and the French government, for the northern east Europeans seeing Berlin as representants for their interests).

That may not last that much though because Germany is losing population while France gains.
If the current pattern is sustained then in a few years the latter will surpass the former not only in terms of population but also of GDP.

That's quite wrong: Germany had a population increase of 400.000 people last year (+0.5%), while France had +300.000 people (+0.4%).

That must be a first in years then because I remember the articles you were posting about Germany's consistently shrinking population. Perhaps it's result of the crisis because I know for sure than many young Greeks left for Germany since 2010 in search for a job. I assume the same thing happened with the other countries.

Population growth in Germany is a two-edged sword and a complicated matter, especially recently with the influx of migrants:

During the 1990s, Germany's population went up by ca. 3 million - while from 2000 to 2010 it basically stagnated.

Then, the 2011 Census showed that the population was overestimated by some 1.5 Mio. people - mostly because foreigners (who are required to de-register at their municipality when moving abroad again) did not do so.

That's why the Census found the population at just 80.2 instead of the 81.7 Mio. that was estimated.

But since then, the population has increased to 81.5 Mio. again, as of July 2015 - a gain of 1.3 million in 4 years.

This year, it is expected that the German population will grow by 600.000 - a new record. While the natural balance will be strongly negative again (150.000 more deaths than births), the migration gain will be huge (+750.000).

If this trend continues, then the population should be about 84-85 million by the 2021 Census.

But then we are back to the "de-registering"-problem of foreigners: The Census could show a significanly lower population again, because foreigners could simply have moved out of the country again without deregistering at the city offices and the actual Census population is likely 82-83 million.

Anyway, France won't overtake Germany in population in the next 30 years, nor will its GDP (the French economic performance is much weaker than Germany's).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2015, 12:25:22 PM »


By 2017, Merkel could be so popular that CDU/CSU win their own parliamentary majority after years of budget consolidation and debt being reduced from 85% of GDP to 70%, millions of jobs created and rising wages, as well as political stability.

That's at least what the polls show right now: CDU/CSU are just as strong as SPD/Greens/Left combined, with the FDP and AfD below the threshold.
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