If Clinton is a two-term president, who is on the Democratic bench in 2024?
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  If Clinton is a two-term president, who is on the Democratic bench in 2024?
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Author Topic: If Clinton is a two-term president, who is on the Democratic bench in 2024?  (Read 2665 times)
Yelnoc
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« on: August 01, 2015, 09:03:56 AM »

How many of 2024 candidates do we already know the names of, given this scenario?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2015, 09:59:26 AM »

Elizabeth Warren, Tammy Baldwin (assuming she survives 2018), Kirsten Gillibrand probably.

Elizabeth Warren will be 75 years old.  Doubful she'll be running at that age.

I do think both Gillibrand and Klobuchar would stand a good chance of running, as they both seemed to want to run this time around, but couldn't because of Clinton.

I don't know though.  I'm guessing the majority of candidates will be people who don't yet hold statewide office, as of now in 2015.  Though whoever the vice president is will presumably be someone who we already know right now, and I'd assume they'll probably run for president in 2024.
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hurricanehink
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« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2015, 10:06:19 AM »

Booker, Gillibrand, someone who wins in 2018 or 2020 that isn't on our radar yet (such as Lisa Madigan if she wins Illinois in 2018).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2015, 12:08:53 PM »

Castro & Booker& Gillibrand
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DS0816
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« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2015, 02:39:42 PM »

How many of 2024 candidates do we already know the names of, given this scenario?

… One election at a time.
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Blair
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« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2015, 03:20:28 PM »

If Vice President Gore wins in 2000, who will be the the nominee in 2008?
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2015, 03:22:13 PM »
« Edited: August 01, 2015, 03:23:50 PM by Likely Voter »

RE: Castro
While they will be the right demographic (age and race) it is hard to see if either will have the right experience. To be a serious contender for the Dem ticket you should be a Senator, governor or VP. Short of Hillary putting one on the ticket, I can't see either winning statewide in TX. Maybe after the Obama Admin Julian will move to Nevada and take on Heller in 2018?


And of course Hillary's VP will be the presumptive nominee, so will the Dems even go to the bench?
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Crumpets
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« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2015, 04:39:57 PM »

Kamala Harris, Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Tammy Duckworth, maybe Cory Booker, and hopefully Tammy Baldwin. I don't know why, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Tulsi Gabbard will run at some point, but probably not in 2024.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2015, 08:06:21 PM »

And of course Hillary's VP will be the presumptive nominee, so will the Dems even go to the bench?

Depends on who it is.  Is Tim Kaine exciting enough that he's going to clear the field?  I mean, in this scenario it will have been 16 years since there was a truly contested Democratic nomination fight (I'm not counting 2016 as being "contested", since Clinton alreay has it won), and surely there will be a number of potential candidates who are sick of biding their time and deferring to the frontrunner.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2015, 09:04:33 PM »

I agree that after four times some of the governors and senators will start to feel like they are being shortchanged by not getting a chance to run because of Obama, Clinton and Clinton VP. But if Clinton is popular in 2024, her VP would have a big leg up.  

That being said, I beleive Clinton will probably go with a white guy like Kaine or Warner and in 2024 the Dems may feel that a white guy at the top of the ticket is just no longer what they want to do. Winning four elections in a row with non-white guys and with white guys becoming a fraction of their base, someone from the so called 'Rising American Electorate' could make a good challenger to Mr. VP.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2015, 12:43:40 PM »

Irrelevant premise, as no party is getting elected 5 straight times.
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2015, 07:56:40 PM »

Irrelevant premise, as no party is getting elected 5 straight times.

President Dewey agrees  with you.

Anyway Kamala Harris has potential, als has Martin Heinrich perhaps. In Murphy is elected next year perhaps ihm.
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Leinad
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« Reply #12 on: August 03, 2015, 02:11:48 AM »

To be a serious contender for the Dem ticket you should be a Senator, governor or VP.

What about a prominent Representative? Joaquin is already in Congress, and I'd think mayor + cabinet member + Rep. would look really nice on Julian's prospective Presidential resume. Not to mention the considerably greater than zero chance he'd be Hillary's VP (comparatively old white person taking a comparatively young minority makes sense--and it's ironically the exact reverse of what Obama did with Biden).
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jfern
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« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2015, 02:15:35 AM »

Not all ones I'd want, but here's some guesses.

Sherrod Brown, Kristen Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Tammy Baldin, Kate Brown
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Blue3
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« Reply #14 on: August 03, 2015, 04:21:06 PM »

A lot of those would be pretty old by then. Not too old, but still.

If Hillary has two terms, then the Democratic base would probably be hungry for a younger nominee (born after 1970, at least).

So who are the current Democratic Senators and Governors born after 1970?

But it will likely be someone who is elected in 2016 or later.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #15 on: August 03, 2015, 04:51:04 PM »

And of course Hillary's VP will be the presumptive nominee, so will the Dems even go to the bench?

Depends on who it is.  Is Tim Kaine exciting enough that he's going to clear the field?  I mean, in this scenario it will have been 16 years since there was a truly contested Democratic nomination fight (I'm not counting 2016 as being "contested", since Clinton alreay has it won), and surely there will be a number of potential candidates who are sick of biding their time and deferring to the frontrunner.


While there's a tradition of VPs ending up presidential nominees, more recently… Assuming Hillary is the nominee, that will mean only 1 of the last 4 VPs was nominated for president. If Biden runs, that will be 1 of last 3 who ran won the nomination. I doubt someone like Kaine would be as strong a frontrunner as Hillary is this cycle.


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Leinad
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« Reply #16 on: August 03, 2015, 09:27:00 PM »

So who are the current Democratic Senators and Governors born after 1970?

Sen. Martin Heinrich (NM) - 1971
Sen. Brian Schatz (HI) - 1972
Sen. Chris Murphy (CT) - 1973
Gov. Gina Raimondo (RI) - 1971

Close enough:

Sen. Cory Booker (NJ) - 1969
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) - 1966
Gov. Steve Bullock (MT) - 1966

Someone born in 1966 would, in 2024, be about a decade younger than Hillary is this cycle.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #17 on: August 04, 2015, 12:55:24 AM »

Not all ones I'd want, but here's some guesses.

Sherrod Brown, Kristen Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Tammy Baldin, Kate Brown
Kate can't be president as she was born in Spain.

Her father was serving in the Air Force at the time - she's as eligible as John McCain.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #18 on: August 04, 2015, 03:59:16 AM »

Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker, Gavin Newsom, Martin Heinrich, Kate Brown, Al Franken, Tim Kaine, Julian Castro, John Chiang, Eric Schneiderman, Bill de Blasio
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RFayette
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« Reply #19 on: August 04, 2015, 12:10:21 PM »

Whoever Hillary picks as VP could clean up.  The Democrats will likely try to perpetually avoid free-for-all primaries and the donors may ensure the nominee is pretty much a sure thing well in advance.
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user12345
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« Reply #20 on: August 04, 2015, 12:39:19 PM »

Not all ones I'd want, but here's some guesses.

Sherrod Brown, Kristen Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Tammy Baldin, Kate Brown
Kate can't be president as she was born in Spain.

Her father was serving in the Air Force at the time - she's as eligible as John McCain.
Didn't know that, thanks for the correction Smiley
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #21 on: August 04, 2015, 01:20:37 PM »

Brown would be seventy.

That said:

Julian/Joaquin Castro, Gavin Newsom, Keith Ellison, Robert Biden(?), Cory Booker, Bill DeBlasio, and John P. Kennedy, III, Martin Heinrich, and Tammy Baldwin are all young enough to run in 2024.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #22 on: August 04, 2015, 03:59:22 PM »

With the thinness of the Democratic bench, we probably do know the name of the candidate.

Brown would be seventy.

That said:

Julian/Joaquin Castro, Gavin Newsom, Keith Ellison, Robert Biden(?), Cory Booker, Bill DeBlasio, and John P. Kennedy, III, Martin Heinrich, and Tammy Baldwin are all young enough to run in 2024.

Isn't he a Muslim? A Muslim is not going to be elected President of the United States, not even in 2024. Especially if he's only a Congressman.

Also, Brown would be 86, not 70. If he were to be 70 in 2024, he'd probably be running now.

Not all ones I'd want, but here's some guesses.

Sherrod Brown, Kristen Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Tammy Baldin, Kate Brown
Kate can't be president as she was born in Spain.

With a name like "Kate Brown", I'm guessing her parents weren't Spaniards.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #23 on: August 04, 2015, 04:58:27 PM »

Gillibrand, Newsom, Harris, or Castro
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: August 04, 2015, 08:11:03 PM »

And of course Hillary's VP will be the presumptive nominee, so will the Dems even go to the bench?

Depends on who it is.  Is Tim Kaine exciting enough that he's going to clear the field?  I mean, in this scenario it will have been 16 years since there was a truly contested Democratic nomination fight (I'm not counting 2016 as being "contested", since Clinton alreay has it won), and surely there will be a number of potential candidates who are sick of biding their time and deferring to the frontrunner.

Kaine wont be picked; he voted for fast track.  I hope she picks Castro; to strengthen her appeal to Latinos as SW like CO, NV & NM is better than appalachia.
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