What are the odds that a major Dem name gets into the POTUS race?

[Torie]

This poll occurred to me, because Bill Kristol thinks the odds are at least 50-50 that a major name parachutes into the Dem POTUS primary race, as in Warren, Kerry or Biden. What do you think?

[Famous Mortimer]

Biden is just a dream, it's not gonna happen.

Warren would have had a realistic shot but she clearly doesn't want it. Too close to Hillary.

Kerry would just not be a good candidate. He has most of the same problems as Hillary.

Gore is the only other person I could see having a real chance but the draft movement has failed to gain steam.

[The Other Castro]

At this point, it is equal to the odds that Biden gets in + 1% for all others. IMO, this is about 16%

[Tender Branson]

Theoretically, candidates on both sides can still jump into the race over the next 2-3 months (with the Republicans having a more stressful schedule: The SC primary filing deadline for the GOP is already on Sept. 30). But a Democratic candidate can still jump into the race until the end of October because then the NH, SC and MI filing deadlines are coming up and I'm sure no serious candidate on either side wants to miss those.

I can only see Biden getting in, but I really doubt that he will.

[bedstuy]

Bill Kristol is an idiot and he doesn't have his finger on the pulse of the Democratic Party.  He is also a concern troll and wants to argue that OMG Hillary Clinton's campaign is in trouble.

I think the only potential major candidate is Biden.  Maybe it's about a 30% chance he jumps in, who knows?  The Times just posted an article about the Biden's camp putting out feelers to donors and Maureen Dowd reported that Biden is discussing the possibility.

[DS0816]

This poll occurred to me, because Bill Kristol thinks the odds are at least 50-50 that a major name parachutes into the Dem POTUS primary race, as in Warren, Kerry or Biden. What do you think?

I don't give Bill Kristol any thought.

This thread, with use of the words "Dem name," is foolish.

[7,052,770]

Kerry isn't a big name, sadly. Warren really isn't either.

[Famous Mortimer]

Kerry isn't a big name, sadly. Warren really isn't either.

This is a stupid comment.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Kerry isn't a big name, sadly. Warren really isn't either.

This is a stupid comment.

Yeah, I don't know what he meant there. I mean one can think of plenty of people that if they were to enter would be as Biden says, "A big f**king deal". Of course Hillary would still be the frontrunner no matter who entered. The only 2 people who might make Hillary not be the frontrunner if they could run, can't because of the 22nd amendment.

[bobloblaw]

Kerry isn't a big name, sadly. Warren really isn't either.

The guy who came withing 120,000 vote of winning in 2004 isnt a big name???

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't think its very high, 20% at most.

I'm very disappointing in the lackluster Democratic field. Its only Clinton, Sanders, and three other somedudes. Clinton really scared off MANY Democrats.

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't think its very high, 20% at most.

I'm very disappointing in the lackluster Democratic field. Its only Clinton, Sanders, and three other somedudes. Clinton really scared off MANY Democrats.

Weren't many other good Democrats anyway. Cuomo is even more right-wing than Clinton. Warner? What would his appeal be? Clinton with a penis and a Southern accent? Brian Schweitzer maybe.

[Vega]

Why would Kerry get in it? It's not like he's really too old (we have an elderly field no matter who runs), but do people remember his 2004 campaign? Only the climate of the election made it close.

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't think he'll run but it's sort of surprising Howard Dean hasn't done anything.

[henster]

If things get really bad for Hillary I think someone like Klobuchar will consider running.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think Biden will get in the race.  I didn't used to think this, but I do now.  I don't think he can resist the need to try again.

I think that still another Democrat could get into the race, perhaps more than one.  I think Gore may well enter if Biden enters; he's another "last chancer".   Brian Schweitzer may well decide not to postpone an ego trip.

Really, I can't think of anyone else who could command funds, though.  I think Biden will not win, and only Gore could upset Hillary.  Gore is kind of the RFK to Sanders's McCarthy.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

I think Biden will get in the race.  I didn't used to think this, but I do now.  I don't think he can resist the need to try again.

I think that still another Democrat could get into the race, perhaps more than one.  I think Gore may well enter if Biden enters; he's another "last chancer".   Brian Schweitzer may well decide not to postpone an ego trip.

Really, I can't think of anyone else who could command funds, though.  I think Biden will not win, and only Gore could upset Hillary.  Gore is kind of the RFK to Sanders's McCarthy.

I could see it now:

Gore 2016: I'm here to reclaim what's rightfully mine.

I think that message might actually resonate with voters.

[Kingpoleon]

Potential:

Immediate Threat Level:
- Joe Biden
- Deval Patrick
- Michael Bloomberg
- Martin Heinrich
- Elizabeth Warren(not running)

Serious Threat Level:
- Keith Ellison
- Bill DeBlasio
- John Kerry
- Andrew Cuomo
- Sherrod Brown

Minor Threat Level:
- Brian Schweitzer
- Joseph P. Kennedy, III
- Mark Warner
- Bill Nelson
- Joe Manchin

[Famous Mortimer]

Super cereal threat:
Al Gore

Somewhat serious:
Joe Biden
Elizabeth Warren

Hypothetically serious threat:
Mark Warner
Brian Schweitzer
John Kerry

Gadfly who might run if race is blown up:
Joe Manchin

[Fuzzy Bear]

Super cereal threat:
Al Gore

Somewhat serious:
Joe Biden
Elizabeth Warren

Hypothetically serious threat:
Mark Warner
Brian Schweitzer
John Kerry

Gadfly who might run if race is blown up:
Joe Manchin

I can't see Manchin getting anywhere.  He has no support in the Democratic Party outside of WV, and his own state has shifted to the GOP at all levels almost overnight.  That Manchin couldn't even say he was voting for Obama in the 2012 Democratic Primary against a Federal Prison Inmate is a diss of Obama that will forever mar his reputation in Democratic circles.  Manchin didn't endorse Obama in 2012 and that's not acceptable for a Presidential aspirant.  He didn't even indicate that he would vote for Obama at any time. 

[Famous Mortimer]

Super cereal threat:
Al Gore

Somewhat serious:
Joe Biden
Elizabeth Warren

Hypothetically serious threat:
Mark Warner
Brian Schweitzer
John Kerry

Gadfly who might run if race is blown up:
Joe Manchin

I can't see Manchin getting anywhere.  He has no support in the Democratic Party outside of WV, and his own state has shifted to the GOP at all levels almost overnight.  That Manchin couldn't even say he was voting for Obama in the 2012 Democratic Primary against a Federal Prison Inmate is a diss of Obama that will forever mar his reputation in Democratic circles.  Manchin didn't endorse Obama in 2012 and that's not acceptable for a Presidential aspirant.  He didn't even indicate that he would vote for Obama at any time. 

That's why I said he'd be a gadfly.

[7,052,770]

Kerry isn't a big name, sadly. Warren really isn't either.

This is a stupid comment.

Yeah, I don't know what he meant there. I mean one can think of plenty of people that if they were to enter would be as Biden says, "A big f**king deal". Of course Hillary would still be the frontrunner no matter who entered. The only 2 people who might make Hillary not be the frontrunner if they could run, can't because of the 22nd amendment.

I love John Kerry more than anyone else here, but he would be no threat to Hillary at all. Warren would be more of a threat than Sanders & the 3 Stooges, but still a huge longshot.

Biden would have a chance to take down Hillary (a small one, but a chance). That's why he's a big name. Kerry and Warren don't really, so they aren't big names.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Whoever jumps in pretty much needs to be a person who everyone thinks can win but can suck up the progressive support from Sanders if he drops out. Literally Warren fits this mold perfectly but won't do it because she doesn't want it. But if a relatively young, charismatic woman with a progressive reputation jumped in, I don't see Hilary winning.

[dudeabides]

Bill Kristol is an idiot and he doesn't have his finger on the pulse of the Democratic Party.  He is also a concern troll and wants to argue that OMG Hillary Clinton's campaign is in trouble.

I think the only potential major candidate is Biden.  Maybe it's about a 30% chance he jumps in, who knows?  The Times just posted an article about the Biden's camp putting out feelers to donors and Maureen Dowd reported that Biden is discussing the possibility.

Hillary Clinton's campaign is facing some challenges given the candidates ethical track record and the fact that she is barely to the right of Bernie Sanders, the base of the Democratic Party wants someone who is unapologetic about their progressive values. In 2008, the Democratic base went with an anti-war progressive who could win. While Barack Obama has done most of what the liberals have wanted in terms of economic policy, same-sex marriage is not legal at the federal level, he hasn't pushed for gun control, and Obamacare is government regulated health care, it technically isn't government run health care although medicaid has been expanded. Sanders is unapologetic in his liberal beliefs and would expand Obama's liberal policies, that's what the base is looking for and that's why Hillary is in trouble, she'd simply be a third Obama term.

[Vega]

Whoever jumps in pretty much needs to be a person who everyone thinks can win but can suck up the progressive support from Sanders if he drops out. Literally Warren fits this mold perfectly but won't do it because she doesn't want it. But if a relatively young, charismatic woman with a progressive reputation jumped in, I don't see Hilary winning.

I think Kirsten Gillibrand fits that role perfectly.