Biden vs. Bush

[Devils30]

I think Jeb would start with an early lead but Biden would attack him well under the dynasty argument and for wishing to restore those who caused the financial crisis. Something like a 50-47.5% win for Biden.

[Xing]

I like Biden, but my gut tells me he'd make too many gaffes and the Bush campaign would be able to take advantage of that.

[Devils30]

My gut tells me Biden would pull off Virginia. What is it with GOP on this board and Nevada? With its demographics it's unwinnable unless they pull 300+ EV.

[Thunderbird is the word]

I think that Bidens gaffes come off as authentic and that he'd appeal well to the Obama coalition plus working class white voters in a way better then Hillary. I think that the election would be similar to 2012 in some respects with Jeb Bush coming off as a silverspoon in a way similar to Romney.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

This map puts it at 270-268 Biden.  It would be an extremely close election, and I don't think either side would run the table of swing states.

This is perilously close to 269-269.  This makes Maine's 2nd CD and Nebraska's 2nd CD as critical.  The Bush campaign may well contest Maine in order to steal an EV in one of their CDs, even if they can't carry the whole state.  Biden may contest the Omaha-based Nebraska district, and he'd have an advantage in that a lot of the vote there is more compact.

I see Virginia swinging Democratic, but Ohio trending toward the GOP.  I see Nevada going Democratic, but Colorado going GOP.  I could be wrong on all of these, and labor could still swing it for Biden in Ohio.  Virginia could have a GOP surge and swing back the other way.  I don't think that will happen because (A) VA has been more Democratic than OH in the last 2 Presidential elections, and (B) demographics are more favorable in VA.

The right running mate for Biden and Jeb would make much difference.  There, too, the trends favor the GOP in Ohio, as Kasich would be a very logical pick for VP (and he'd take it, no matter what he may say now).  Virginia's Mark Warner would be a good pick for Biden for VP, but it's less likely, IMO, that he'd take the slot, and I don't see Kaine and McAuliffe as equally suitable running mates.

[dudeabides]

This election would not be ideological, it would be very simple. Jeb Bush is simply more presidential than Joe Biden, and I do think that still matters. Biden would try to run for Obama's third term just like Hillary Clinton is, only he just doesn't come across as presidential. Jeb Bush will close the gap with catholic voters, hispanic voters, and political moderates. However, while Bush could potentially close the gap with white working class voters against Clinton, that would be harder to do against Biden, if possible at all. However, Bush would do better than Romney with female voters against Biden.

So,

Jeb Bush (R) 51% 274 EV
Joe Biden (D) 48% 264 EV

[Devils30]

The GOP is not winning New Mexico, period. To win Nevada, they pretty much have to improve 20 points with Latinos, a modest gain isn't enough.

[Spark]

How to post maps?  I'm new to this site and I'd like to post my prediction.

[Kingpoleon]

270 - 268

Joseph Biden(D-DE)/Keith Ellison(D-MN) - 50.1%
Jeb Bush(R-FL)/Brian Sandoval(R-NV) - 47.2%

Third Party: 2.6%
Libertarian: Gary Johnson(L-NM)/Ron Paul(L-TX) - 1.0%
Green: Dennis Kucinich(G-OH)/Ralph Nader(G-CT) - 0.8%
Constitution: Alan Keyes(C-MD)/Virgil Goode(C-VA) - 0.4%
Justice: Rocky Anderson(J-UT)/Thom Hartmann(J-OR) - 0.5%
Others - 0.1%

[ElectionsGuy]

Bush - 311
Biden - 227

[Torie]

More interesting would be a Kasich-Biden map to me. He gave an outstanding interview on Fox News Sunday.

[7,052,770]

We probably don't win this one. I like Biden as much as any of them, but we need to nominate Hillary if we want to win next November.

[dudeabides]

We probably don't win this one. I like Biden as much as any of them, but we need to nominate Hillary if we want to win next November.

If I were a Democrat, I'd feel the same way. Hillary is guaranteed a win over anyone except Bush, Kasich, and Rubio. Beating Rubio and Kasich would be very tough, beating Bush could prove impossible.

Biden would start off with a disadvantage against Rubio and Kasich, and an even greater disadvantage against Bush. He's not disciplined, he's running for Obama's third term, and he doesn't connect with hispanic voters which was key to Obama's re-election victory.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

We probably don't win this one. I like Biden as much as any of them, but we need to nominate Hillary if we want to win next November.

If I were a Democrat, I'd feel the same way. Hillary is guaranteed a win over anyone except Bush, Kasich, and Rubio. Beating Rubio and Kasich would be very tough, beating Bush could prove impossible.

Biden would start off with a disadvantage against Rubio and Kasich, and an even greater disadvantage against Bush. He's not disciplined, he's running for Obama's third term, and he doesn't connect with hispanic voters which was key to Obama's re-election victory.

You're just blatantly trolling at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden 303 electors

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We probably don't win this one. I like Biden as much as any of them, but we need to nominate Hillary if we want to win next November.

If I were a Democrat, I'd feel the same way. Hillary is guaranteed a win over anyone except Bush, Kasich, and Rubio. Beating Rubio and Kasich would be very tough, beating Bush could prove impossible.

Biden would start off with a disadvantage against Rubio and Kasich, and an even greater disadvantage against Bush. He's not disciplined, he's running for Obama's third term, and he doesn't connect with hispanic voters which was key to Obama's re-election victory.

Dude... just stop.

We get it.

Also your signature is a grammatical nightmare. Quotation marks are for actual quotes, not what a right-wing Captain Subtext wants to hear.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

We probably don't win this one. I like Biden as much as any of them, but we need to nominate Hillary if we want to win next November.

If I were a Democrat, I'd feel the same way. Hillary is guaranteed a win over anyone except Bush, Kasich, and Rubio. Beating Rubio and Kasich would be very tough, beating Bush could prove impossible.

Biden would start off with a disadvantage against Rubio and Kasich, and an even greater disadvantage against Bush. He's not disciplined, he's running for Obama's third term, and he doesn't connect with hispanic voters which was key to Obama's re-election victory.

Dude... just stop.

We get it.

Also your signature is a grammatical nightmare. Quotation marks are for actual quotes, not what a right-wing Captain Subtext wants to hear.

I've not decided as to whether I'm going to vote GOP or Democrat in the general as of yet; it depends on what the matchup is.  If the GOP primary were held today, I'd vote for Trump as a protest against free trade policies that I consider detrimental to the working class folks of America, but I may switch parties and vote for Sanders in order to cast a comparable protest vote.  I don't anticipate either of those guys being nominated, but they are carrying the banner of the issue I care most about. 

So I'm not a partisan troll.  But I DO hold the Bush Family responsible for much of the decline of the middle class.  Instead of protecting America from the "Global Economy", they helped create it, favored it, and told working people it was good for them.  This is Bushism, and it's Bushism that has been responsible for exporting the manufacturing base of America abroad, and it's also been responsible for transferring the votes of a huge swath of Middle America from the GOP to the Democrats by way of Ross Perot.

That being said:  I'd really like to know exactly WHY anyone would claim that Jeb Bush is "more Presidential" than our current VP (and, yes, I'm aware of his gaffes over time).  Because his Dad and Big Brother had the job?  Yes, but that makes him look like a FAILED President (especially when compared to W).  Because he speaks in this "calm, reasonable voice"?  Well, yes, but the middle class knows that many politicians have screwed them royally while speaking calmly and reasonably.  Because he's "experienced"?  But Biden has far more experience in government than Jeb Bush does.

Authenticity?  Joe Biden is who he is.  Jeb Bush's real name is John Ellis Bush; he goes by "Jeb" because he's a "Dixie Poser"; he wanted to pose as a real Southerner instead of a Yankee Transplant in order to boost his political career, and because it obscures his Old Northeast Establishment Monied roots (his Dad and his cousin John Ellis's dad were both in Skull and Bones; that's REAL Presidential, eh?). 

Biden has his faults, and the nation may well have Democrat Fatigue and Obama Fatigue, but the nation MOST CERTAINLY HAS BUSH FATIGUE!  This is not just a condition of Democrats; Republcans who supported Bush 43 blame him for the crushing 2006 and 2008 GOP defeats, and Bush 43 was the second President Bush to leave office poorly thought of.  And Bush 43 deserved it far more than Bush 41 did; 41 was nothing special, but 43 was a flop, pure and simple.

So dudeabides, if you're a Bush campaign operative, have the decency to disclose this.  That would at least suggest that you have a personal stake in your opinion being accepted by others.  If, on the other hand, you're an eager beaver trying to crash the Bush party, you may well get your wish.  I'm sure there were a few stand-by passengers on the TITANIC, so have at it!

[dudeabides]

We probably don't win this one. I like Biden as much as any of them, but we need to nominate Hillary if we want to win next November.

If I were a Democrat, I'd feel the same way. Hillary is guaranteed a win over anyone except Bush, Kasich, and Rubio. Beating Rubio and Kasich would be very tough, beating Bush could prove impossible.

Biden would start off with a disadvantage against Rubio and Kasich, and an even greater disadvantage against Bush. He's not disciplined, he's running for Obama's third term, and he doesn't connect with hispanic voters which was key to Obama's re-election victory.

Dude... just stop.

We get it.

Also your signature is a grammatical nightmare. Quotation marks are for actual quotes, not what a right-wing Captain Subtext wants to hear.

I've not decided as to whether I'm going to vote GOP or Democrat in the general as of yet; it depends on what the matchup is.  If the GOP primary were held today, I'd vote for Trump as a protest against free trade policies that I consider detrimental to the working class folks of America, but I may switch parties and vote for Sanders in order to cast a comparable protest vote.  I don't anticipate either of those guys being nominated, but they are carrying the banner of the issue I care most about. 

So I'm not a partisan troll.  But I DO hold the Bush Family responsible for much of the decline of the middle class.  Instead of protecting America from the "Global Economy", they helped create it, favored it, and told working people it was good for them.  This is Bushism, and it's Bushism that has been responsible for exporting the manufacturing base of America abroad, and it's also been responsible for transferring the votes of a huge swath of Middle America from the GOP to the Democrats by way of Ross Perot.

That being said:  I'd really like to know exactly WHY anyone would claim that Jeb Bush is "more Presidential" than our current VP (and, yes, I'm aware of his gaffes over time).  Because his Dad and Big Brother had the job?  Yes, but that makes him look like a FAILED President (especially when compared to W).  Because he speaks in this "calm, reasonable voice"?  Well, yes, but the middle class knows that many politicians have screwed them royally while speaking calmly and reasonably.  Because he's "experienced"?  But Biden has far more experience in government than Jeb Bush does.

Authenticity?  Joe Biden is who he is.  Jeb Bush's real name is John Ellis Bush; he goes by "Jeb" because he's a "Dixie Poser"; he wanted to pose as a real Southerner instead of a Yankee Transplant in order to boost his political career, and because it obscures his Old Northeast Establishment Monied roots (his Dad and his cousin John Ellis's dad were both in Skull and Bones; that's REAL Presidential, eh?). 

Biden has his faults, and the nation may well have Democrat Fatigue and Obama Fatigue, but the nation MOST CERTAINLY HAS BUSH FATIGUE!  This is not just a condition of Democrats; Republcans who supported Bush 43 blame him for the crushing 2006 and 2008 GOP defeats, and Bush 43 was the second President Bush to leave office poorly thought of.  And Bush 43 deserved it far more than Bush 41 did; 41 was nothing special, but 43 was a flop, pure and simple.

So dudeabides, if you're a Bush campaign operative, have the decency to disclose this.  That would at least suggest that you have a personal stake in your opinion being accepted by others.  If, on the other hand, you're an eager beaver trying to crash the Bush party, you may well get your wish.  I'm sure there were a few stand-by passengers on the TITANIC, so have at it!

First of all, I am NOT a Bush campaign operative. If I were, I would not be on this forum, I would be getting folks in New Hampshire and South Carolina to support Governor Bush.

Secondly, it is 100% my fault that there are posters, such as you, who automatically associate me with being a Bush supporter. I am a Bush supporter, but that doesn't mean I am with him on every issue, though I am on most. The fact that I'm supporting Bush and I think he will be the 45th President is coincidence. Four years ago, I supported Newt Gingrich for President knowing full well that he would not be the nominee, I knew Romney would be nominated and I felt Obama would probably win because despite his failed policies, he would run a smear campaign against Romney.

Third, if you actually believe that free trade has hurt the middle class and the Bush's have hurt the middle class, then you really have zero credibility.

As I have stated time after time, free trade has had a positive effect on our economy overall. Wages of those who work in exports are higher than average, and following NAFTA, the trade balance between the U.S. and Mexico grew from a $1.7 billion U.S. surplus in 1993 to an over $60 billion surplus by 2012. Thanks to free trade, many products are cheaper than they once where, which has helped purchasing power. This is especially true of products such as computers, televisions, clothing, and in some cases, even food.

The reason the middle class has been squeezed is because we have failed to compete in a global economy and prepare for success. We have the highest corporate tax rate in the world, our tax code encourages wealth to leave our shores, and our health care costs, thanks to frivolous lawsuits and over regulation, have skyrocketed despite reductions in wages. Additionally, energy security has not been made a national priority, and as a result, families and businesses have had to spend more on heating their homes and transferring goods from point A to point B. These are things President's in both parties have failed at trying to fix.

After more than two decades of inaction, President Obama came to power promising to change things. His policies have made matters worse. The President has placed regulations on business that have cost our economy $80 billion per year. Obamacare has reduced the number of hours folks are working, it's failed to control health care costs, and 4.1 million Americans were thrown off their prior health care plans. Dodd-Frank has made it almost impossible for businesses to start or expand. The tax increases the President has implemented have been an additional burden on small business. The "stimulus" Obama passed in 2009 turned out to be primarily a corporate welfare scheme. Wall Street is doing fine, but Main Street is hurting. Meanwhile, thanks to loose monetary policies and falling wages, the American family has seen inflation that is not visible to the government, but it sure is to the public.

As to why Jeb Bush is more presidential than Joe Biden, it is clear. It's not because of his father or brother, in fact, he is far more presidential than George W. Bush ever was. Jeb Bush is presidential because he is a leader who doesn't try and scare people the way the current President has. He speaks from the heart, but he doesn't say outlandish things for attention. He seeks to unite people, he says what he means and means what he says. Joe Biden simply is not careful with what he says, words matter when it comes to the presidency. Making stereotypical jokes about Indians and telling a man in a wheelchair to stand up simply doesn't come across as presidential.

I concede the public does not approve of George W. Bush. Many think he's a nice man, but they completely disapprove of his presidency. Most see George Bush Sr. as a gentleman, and they think he was an okay President. We don't know how history will judge either one. My guess is George Bush will go down in history as a good President, and I happen to believe that George W. Bush will as well. But, in the present, only 41 is seen as good, not 43. I have said this before, maybe it will register with you this time: when George Bush Sr. left office in 1993, he had 56% of the public disapproving of his job performance. Less than 8 years later, his son was elected President. Americans judged George W. Bush on his record, they will judge Jeb Bush on his record. In the case of Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, both will be judged on their records, part of which includes the time each spent in the Obama administration.

Your'e obsession with these delusions that the Bushs were horrible Presidents is not surprising given the media's hatred for George W. Bush. I'm afraid at times, you have what I call a facts gap - a gap between what you say and what reality is. But, I'm going to give you credit. Most Trump supporters are scared and angry old white guys who don't know any better. The fact that you admit to liking Bernie Sanders means you are consistent. Sanders and Trump are pretty much the same from an ideological standpoint. Sanders is at least honest about his socialism, Trump is a complete fraud. I don't believe Sanders hates America like Trump does, I just think he's very badly misguided, but he is genuine and has conviction.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Wait... you supported Captain Moonbase?

[dudeabides]

Wait... you supported Captain Moonbase?

I knew he wouldn't make it past a primary, but he did some important things as House Speaker and I agreed with his platform the most.