Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Marokai Backbeat]

The NDP can blame nobody but themselves on this. Triangulation is a dumb strategy and it seems left-wing parties will only learn it the hard way.

The way Mulcair campaigned boggles the mind. Bland, boring, forgettable. Basically made no attempt to control the narrative once the campaign kicked off properly. Like Holmes said, the NDP were handed a platter of issues that were theirs to lose, with a popular and trusted leader at the top, as well as an incumbent government most people are tired of, and they inexplicably pissed it all away. If recent provincial elections have taught anybody anything it's that Canadian Liberals are horror movie villains that never die.

[DC Al Fine]

If the Conservatives hand Justin Trudeau a majority because they went too far with their alienating, xenophobic rhetoric, which seems possible if trends hold, I'll be so, so pissed.

Once again, it is much, much, *much* too early to be making these kinds of predictions!

That said, that particular scenario if it came true would be, in my estimation, rather poetic justice.

I disagree, actually. The anti-Harper sentiment is strong, and if it becomes clear which party the progressives should coalesce behind (and in this case, it's evidently going to be the Liberal Party), the movement of voters, en masse, from one leftist camp to the other could be staggering. I would not be surprised to see the NDP at 20% and the Liberals at 40% in a week and a half.

Lets wait and see. Nanos is the only one showing the Liberals in the mid-thirties, and they aren't exactly known for underpolling the Grits. I'm waiting for another firm to confirm the Liberal numbers before I start talking about a Liberal surge.

The NDP can blame nobody but themselves on this. Triangulation is a dumb strategy and it seems left-wing parties will only learn it the hard way.

The way Mulcair campaigned boggles the mind. Bland, boring, forgettable. Basically made no attempt to control the narrative once the campaign kicked off properly. Like Holmes said, the NDP were handed a platter of issues that were theirs to lose, with a popular and trusted leader at the top, as well as an incumbent government most people are tired of, and they inexplicably pissed it all away. If recent provincial elections have taught anybody anything it's that Canadian Liberals are horror movie villains that never die.

Several NDP and Tory friends have expressed this sentiment to each other:

"I hate your party and your ideas are crazy... but at least you aren't the effing Liberals!"

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tbh from what I've seen,the Dipper campaign has been so mediocre and bland, I might be tempted to vote Liberal over them. At least we could get stoned, and amuse ourselves with Justin's wacky hijinks in power.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Meh, I don't hate the Liberals that much. In office, they seem mostly bland and useless, but not actually harmful - and certainly not as harmful as Harper has been in the past decade. Biebertrudeau seems like an empty suit, but in the past they had pretty good leaders even from a left-wing perspective.

[DC Al Fine]

Meh, I don't hate the Liberals that much. In office, they seem mostly bland and useless, but not actually harmful - and certainly not as harmful as Harper has been in the past decade. Biebertrudeau seems like an empty suit, but in the past they had pretty good leaders even from a left-wing perspective.

Come now Tony, most of our hatred of the Liberals has nothing to do with policy. It has everything to do with their arrogance and the fact that they are an amorphous, unideological, centrist blob that keeps stealing our (either NDP or Tory) platform

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Are there any provincial parties that have stayed dead? The Sask one is the only one I can think of.

[RogueBeaver]

The other prairie parties are dead.

[King of Kensington]

I agree with my socialist comrades from the US here. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The other prairie parties are dead.

Well Alberta's is just clinging on to existence, but they've been kicked down a few other times and returned, so I wouldn't quite pronounce them deceased yet. And Manitoba's liberals are polling fairly high - reaching the 20's - although that might be an illusion I guess.

[DC Al Fine]

The other prairie parties are dead.

Well Alberta's is just clinging on to existence, but they've been kicked down a few other times and returned, so I wouldn't quite pronounce them deceased yet. And Manitoba's liberals are polling fairly high - reaching the 20's - although that might be an illusion I guess.

If we're looking at non-Liberals, Union Nationale and three Social Credit parties all stayed dead.

[DavidB.]

The anti-weed campaign is really stupid. What on earth does Harper think he's doing? This is not the way to win the elections.

I'd suggest two possibilities:

1) The Tories are trying to use it as a wedge to win over ethnic minorities (Optimistic answer)

2) The Tories feel they are in trouble and are trying to turn out their base (Pessimistic answer)

Either way, they are probably hoping that pro-weed people either don't care enough to change their vote or are so pro-drug that they'd never consider the Tories anyway. This sort of thing can work,  although I'm inclined to think its a bad idea in this case.

1) Why would minorities be anti-weed? Even if they are "socially conservative", this seems like one of these issues most people with a foreign background don't really care about.

 2) Hmmm. It seems like they're using it to look really "ideological", which doesn't make any sense because they don't face any threats to their right, and I doubt they should worry about turnout among steadfast conservatives - it's rather moderate voters who could also vote for the Liberals they should worry about, and this seems like the exact wrong tactic to convince these people. It seems like Harper and his advisors truly don't know what they are doing.

[RogueBeaver]

Some pollster clues: Graves told Ian MacDonald yesterday that while the Grits gained since Tuesday, Tories still hold a slight lead. Bricker tweeted this afternoon that NDP is in 3rd but higher than others peg them in ON, lead a 4-way race here in QC. He was curious whether the Grits were extending their lead or Tories closing.

[platypeanArchcow]

1) Why would minorities be anti-weed? Even if they are "socially conservative", this seems like one of these issues most people with a foreign background don't really care about.

East and South Asians (who make up most of Canada's minorities) tend to be conservative on drugs.  See for example California's vote on Prop 19.

Whether it's actually an important issue to them is a different question -- I suspect not but don't know.

[2952-0-0]

John Corbett of Forum Research tweeted that Liberals have momentum, so his next poll will show them at 40% or something.

Nanos promises something "interesting" for tomorrow. If I had to guess - Liberals close in on NDP in Quebec.

[RogueBeaver]

That would require Francophone numbers they haven't had since 2003. Ideological, party and personal baggage all weigh on Justin in ROQ.

[2952-0-0]

That would require Francophone numbers they haven't had since 2003. Ideological, party and personal baggage all weigh on Justin in ROQ.

Actually, Nanos showed the Liberals at 44% as recently of January this year.

What are some other possibilities?

CPC bounce back? No major CPC events this weekend.

NDP bounce back? All Tom did was tour SW Ontario today. Shouldn't be too exciting.

Another incremental Liberal rise? Not interesting enough to warrant Nanos dropping a teaser.

Sharp increase in national Liberal numbers? There weren't any major events to cause that.

Bloc resurgence due to Duceppe's performance at the debate? We should have seen something by now.

OTOH, there's been a near perfect NDP to Liberal switch in Quebec since the debate. So that's what I think.

Agreed that Liberal vote will be inefficient and they have few opportunities outside the island, Hull/Gatineau, and Eastern Townships, unless this trend continues seriously. But it *is* Quebec.

[Krago]

Has anyone tried the Nanos Interactive Data Portal?

[136or142]

The anti-weed campaign is really stupid. What on earth does Harper think he's doing? This is not the way to win the elections.

I'd suggest two possibilities:

1) The Tories are trying to use it as a wedge to win over ethnic minorities (Optimistic answer)

2) The Tories feel they are in trouble and are trying to turn out their base (Pessimistic answer)

Either way, they are probably hoping that pro-weed people either don't care enough to change their vote or are so pro-drug that they'd never consider the Tories anyway. This sort of thing can work,  although I'm inclined to think its a bad idea in this case.

1) Why would minorities be anti-weed? Even if they are "socially conservative", this seems like one of these issues most people with a foreign background don't really care about.

 2) Hmmm. It seems like they're using it to look really "ideological", which doesn't make any sense because they don't face any threats to their right, and I doubt they should worry about turnout among steadfast conservatives - it's rather moderate voters who could also vote for the Liberals they should worry about, and this seems like the exact wrong tactic to convince these people. It seems like Harper and his advisors truly don't know what they are doing.

Don't know about most South Asians, but Chinese in particular tend to be very anti illegal drugs due to their countries experience with opium and probably the Opium Wars.  I don't know how many Chinese Canadians actually care about this, but the CON Party thinks it's a big deal to them, and Chinese Canadian CON M.Ps are strongly anti marijuana legalization.

[136or142]

Meh, I don't hate the Liberals that much. In office, they seem mostly bland and useless, but not actually harmful - and certainly not as harmful as Harper has been in the past decade. Biebertrudeau seems like an empty suit, but in the past they had pretty good leaders even from a left-wing perspective.

Come now Tony, most of our hatred of the Liberals has nothing to do with policy. It has everything to do with their arrogance and the fact that they are an amorphous, unideological, centrist blob that keeps stealing our (either NDP or Tory) platform

Most platform planks come from research by university professors and other researchers.  The idea that any party owns policies is silly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Most platform planks come from research by university professors and other researchers.

Oh boy, I wish this were true...

[136or142]

Most platform planks come from research by university professors and other researchers.

Oh boy, I wish this were true...

Fair point. I should have said that most policy planks originate from research highlighted by university professors and other researchers.  What the political parties do with that evidence sometimes has no relation to the proposals suggested by that research.

A good example of that is the P.Q government taking the findings from the Charles Taylor commission and doing the exact opposite of what he recommended.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd wager that much of policy implemented by modern government stems from corporate lobbying. The US obviously being one of the most egregious examples. Aside from that, parties and other interest groups also have their own agency. Researchers only come far behind.

[BaconBacon96]

I have heard that the Liberals vote in Quebec is being limited by the fact that they are led by a Trudeau, due to ongoing animosity towards his father. Is this true, do Quebecois still resent him enough not to vote  for his son?

[Zanas]

I have heard that the Liberals vote in Quebec is being limited by the fact that they are led by a Trudeau, due to ongoing animosity towards his father. Is this true, do Quebecois still resent him enough not to vote  for his son?

I think to most <40 people he's just an airport. Low information voters are really a thing.

[DC Al Fine]

I have heard that the Liberals vote in Quebec is being limited by the fact that they are led by a Trudeau, due to ongoing animosity towards his father. Is this true, do Quebecois still resent him enough not to vote  for his son?

Not really, just ongoing difficulties with francophones. The party had a massive decline in Quebec between 2003-2006 due to adscam and other factors, and they've struggled there ever since.

As Rogue Beaver noted, the party has a lot of baggage and is ideologically unsuited to most francophones.