Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[DC Al Fine]

Nanos, finally shows a (tiny) decline for the Liberals and a (tiny) gain for the NDP.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg) -- Mainstreet poll shows Conservative Party 37%, Liberals 29%, New Democratic Party 24%, Greens 7%, Bloc Quebecois 4%

[jaichind]

CPC 31.5%, NDP 23.1%, LPC 35%, NANOS

[jaichind]

This is 2011 in reverse for NDP

[cp]

A link to Nanos for those interested and to the Mainstreet poll, too (which appears to be a week old, for what it's worth).

Interesting regional dynamics in the Nanos poll: Tories and Libs drop in equal measure in Ontario while NDP makes a modest jump. Tories and NDP continue to slide in Quebec while the Libs slowly gain steam. Tories jump in BC, but still in third, while the Libs jump in the Prairies, but still a distant second.

All in all, though, still the same story that Ipsos and EKOS have shown over the past week: Lib/Tory tie for 1st, NDP well behind.

I disagree about the reverse-2011 scenario. The NDP had very slow growth in the first 2/3 of the campaign in 2011 followed by a sudden rise. 2015 has been more of a slow, steady decline for them.

I can't really think of an election this one resembles in terms of its general pattern. Has there ever been a case where the main opposition party has lost its lead gradually while the incumbent and third parties gain until they're in a head-to-head match?

[2952-0-0]

The three parties were within 5% all thr way until the third week of September when thr niqab caused the NDP to lose its dominance in Quebec. And since then they've fallen at the rate of the Liberals under Iggy.

[RogueBeaver]

A link to Nanos for those interested and to the Mainstreet poll, too (which appears to be a week old, for what it's worth).

Interesting regional dynamics in the Nanos poll: Tories and Libs drop in equal measure in Ontario while NDP makes a modest jump. Tories and NDP continue to slide in Quebec while the Libs slowly gain steam. Tories jump in BC, but still in third, while the Libs jump in the Prairies, but still a distant second.

All in all, though, still the same story that Ipsos and EKOS have shown over the past week: Lib/Tory tie for 1st, NDP well behind.

I disagree about the reverse-2011 scenario. The NDP had very slow growth in the first 2/3 of the campaign in 2011 followed by a sudden rise. 2015 has been more of a slow, steady decline for them.

I can't really think of an election this one resembles in terms of its general pattern. Has there ever been a case where the main opposition party has lost its lead gradually while the incumbent and third parties gain until they're in a head-to-head match?

2007 here.

[cp]

Hmm, that's close I suppose. But the PQ wasn't as clearly in the lead at the start of the campaign and their decline was a lot less dramatic than the NDP's has been so far, nor did the ADQ ever take a clear lead the way the Libs have now.

All that said, if Quebec 2007 is the model for what's happening now then we're in for a very nerve wracking election night!

[Vosem]

Hmm, that's close I suppose. But the PQ wasn't as clearly in the lead at the start of the campaign and their decline was a lot less dramatic than the NDP's has been so far, nor did the ADQ ever take a clear lead the way the Libs have now.

The Liberals are clearly in second place to the Conservatives right now (although they do seem to be rising and catching up).

[Vosem]

Also, Forum Research has conducted some more riding polls in Ontario.

Brampton North
39-34-24

Mississauga Centre
44-35-16

York Centre
40-39-17

Mississauga-Lakeshore
44-41-12

Scarborough Centre
43-36-19

[cp]

Hmm, that's close I suppose. But the PQ wasn't as clearly in the lead at the start of the campaign and their decline was a lot less dramatic than the NDP's has been so far, nor did the ADQ ever take a clear lead the way the Libs have now.

The Liberals are clearly in second place to the Conservatives right now (although they do seem to be rising and catching up).

Quite the opposite, Nanos, Innovative, and Leger all have the Liberals ahead of the Tories and Ipsos has them effectively tied.

Mainstreet, Angus Reid, and EKOS have the Tories ahead but all their data is over a week old.

[RogueBeaver]

Graves said he's had the Tories ahead for nearly 3 weeks now. His first daily tracker is out in 3 hours.

[2952-0-0]

Graves said he's had the Tories ahead for nearly 3 weeks now. His first daily tracker is out in 3 hours.

He did imply the Liberals have some momentum especially in Ontario.

BTW, pollsters should really display the GTA and rest of Ontario separately. The GTA's population already approaches that of Quebec, and the rest of Ontario is a good deal larger than BC.

[2952-0-0]

Nanos Preferred PM: Niqab 31.7, Nice Hair 30.6, Beard 19.0.

If this foreshadows party support then Beard should start polishing his resume.

[RogueBeaver]

Tory Mississauga candidate defends gay conversion therapy.

[Holmes]

Graves said he's had the Tories ahead for nearly 3 weeks now. His first daily tracker is out in 3 hours.

He did imply the Liberals have some momentum especially in Ontario.

BTW, pollsters should really display the GTA and rest of Ontario separately. The GTA's population already approaches that of Quebec, and the rest of Ontario is a good deal larger than BC.

Yes and also whoever the GTA chooses will be our next prime minister too.

[RogueBeaver]

EKOS: 35.1/30.5/22.3.

[Holmes]

Time to pull the plug on Canada I guess.

[the506]

That Quebec number seems really out of whack. No way the CPC is tied for first.

[Holmes]

That Quebec number seems really out of whack. No way the CPC is tied for first.

something something quebec racism

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah all the regional breakdowns seem kind of fishy in that last poll.

[cp]

I don't think they're especially unusual, at least not when you take into account the margin of error and house effects. EKOS is showing basically the same pattern that every pollster (except *ahem* Mainstreet) has: Tories and Libs vying for the lead, NPD fading, and more importantly, centre-left votes coalescing around Trudeau.

Relevantly, Andrew Cohen on the Liberal campaign. It's mostly fluff, but I was intrigued by his observation that the Libs had been "innovative in staging events" involving "two airplanes". Has anyone seen this?

[DC Al Fine]

Tory Mississauga candidate defends gay conversion therapy.

On an interesting note, said candidate is Sikh.

[cp]

As is his Liberal opponent.

Incidentally, what do you think the odds are that gay conversion therapy will be labeled a 'barbaric cultural practice'?

[2952-0-0]

Yeah all the regional breakdowns seem kind of fishy in that last poll.

Taking the numbers at face value, it might mean the Conservative vote is becoming inefficient: gaining larger margins in rural, less racially diverse areas, but losing in the urban/suburban ridings which they won closely and gave them their majority. If the Insights West poll of ethnic minority voters in Vancouver is any guide, they've burned their only path back to power for years to come.