Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[the506]

I'm thinking that too. What else can explain that Mainstreet poll the other day with the Tories at 63% in Alberta but in trouble in Edmonton and Calgary?

(Other than, you know, Mainstreet being Mainstreet...)

[jaichind]

If these poll numbers persist, it seems that the party that has the largest vote share will be the smallest ever, surprising 2006 when Harper won in the first place.  And there is significant chance that it will be Harper again that will break his on record of lowest vote share of the largest vote share party.

[2952-0-0]

I'm at a candidates debate right now. There are only three candidates present: Liberal, Conservative, and Communist. Yes, the Communists.

[RogueBeaver]

That Tory candidate has been repudiated, but he'll still be on the ballot.

Robert Fisher says the campaign reminds him of ON 1999.

[136or142]

That Tory candidate has been repudiated, but he'll still be on the ballot.

Robert Fisher says the campaign reminds him of ON 1999.

The Liberal Party removed Cheryl Thomas of Victoria B.C from their list of candidates on their website. Will the Conservatives do the same?

[Thomas D]

CBC News Alerts :
Tory party confirm Jagdish Grewal is no longer its candidate in riding of Mississauga-Malton. It says his comments do not reflect its views.

[Vega]

Calling it now:

If the NDP loses the election (whether coming in third, or even losing seats), they will move to the centre, while the Liberals while in office, if elected, will act like their social democrat qualities they've shown in the past month never happened.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If the NDP loses the election (whether coming in third, or even losing seats), they will move to the centre

If they actually do that, they deserve to fade into oblivion forever.

[Lincoln Republican]

Bloomberg) -- Mainstreet poll shows Conservative Party 37%, Liberals 29%, New Democratic Party 24%, Greens 7%, Bloc Quebecois 4%

If this was the result election day, is it reasonable to assume this would produce a Harper Conservative majority?

 

[Lincoln Republican]

Question.

If Harper and the Conservatives win a minority, is there any scenario under which they could survive as a government for a reasonable length of time, long enough to consolidate their position and go for a majority?

[2952-0-0]

...and here's an epic explanation of a Communist at the debate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E92m9uGS4CQ

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The federal NDP learned nothing from Andrea Horwath's stunning failure in 2014: why is Mulcair touting fiscal responsibility and budgetary balance? Why does the NDP yearn to express itself as a centrist party? No one gravitates towards the NDP because it's a pillar of respectability or whatever, soft left types look to the NDP as a principled party that embodies consistent left-wing values.

I watched the Globe and Mail debate. Trudeau was far more bold than Mulcair in terms of his rhetoric, policy vision and his willingness to argue for the left against Harper.

[Holmes]

Because the NDP has ever won by running on the left. It has always been ridiculed for its leftist positions, and those have been touted as the reasons why they should never take government. It's damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[cp]

Question.

If Harper and the Conservatives win a minority, is there any scenario under which they could survive as a government for a reasonable length of time, long enough to consolidate their position and go for a majority?

This has been explored in depth at least twice earlier on in this forum topic. The tl;dr version is: It's not likely, but it depends.

[RogueBeaver]

La Presse endorses Justin for ideological reasons.

[cp]

Isn't it a bit early for newspaper endorsements? I thought this sort of thing only happened in the final week of the campaign.

Meanwhile,

Abacus: 33, 32, 24

Nanos: 34.3, 32.1, 23.0

Not too much in the regional numbers to shout about. Both show a tight but steady race in Quebec with the NDP ahead. Both show a slight Liberal lead in Ontario (though Nanos has them trending slightly down and Abacus has them trending slightly up).

[RogueBeaver]

Interesting Vincent Marissal column on NPD's Operation Save the Furniture. 1) Voters want to vote for them but are put off by niqabs, more amenable talking about other issues. 2) NDP internal polling shows a Tory lead in Quebec City 3) Certain staffers begged Mulcair to stop answering niqab questions 4) a majority of his Quebec caucus disagrees with him on niqabs. 5) Door reaction to niqabs is so hostile that some candidates, particularly in Quebec City, have voluntarily stopped door canvassing for the past 2 weeks.

[2952-0-0]

La Presse endorses Justin for ideological reasons.

Ah, so Power Corp has figured out which way the wind is blowing.

[Volrath50]

Interesting Vincent Marissal column on NPD's Operation Save the Furniture. 1) Voters want to vote for them but are put off by niqabs, more amenable talking about other issues. 2) NDP internal polling shows a Tory lead in Quebec City 3) Certain staffers begged Mulcair to stop answering niqab questions 4) a majority of his Quebec caucus disagrees with him on niqabs. 5) Door reaction to niqabs is so hostile that some candidates, particularly in Quebec City, have voluntarily stopped door canvassing for the past 2 weeks.

I still have a hard time comprehending how such a truly insignificant, symbolic issue is taking such centre stage. I suppose an issue like this is less complex and easier to understand, than something like the TPP, so voters are more likely to have a position on, and strong feelings about it, I guess.

[lilTommy]

La Presse endorses Justin for ideological reasons.

Ah, so Power Corp has figured out which way the wind is blowing.

The Last party LaPresse endorsed was the Conservatives in 2006...
- 2011 - No endorsement (advocated only for "a strong Quebec in Ottawa")
- 2008 - No endorsement
- 2006 - Conservative Party
- 2004 - No endorsement (advocated for a minority government)
- 2000 - Liberal Party
- 1997 - Liberal Party
- 1993 - Liberal Party
- 1988 - Conservative Par

[2952-0-0]

Ekos: Con 34.1 Lib 32.3 NDP 21.4

Ontario: Lib 41 Con 34 NDP 18

Quebec: Con 28 Lib 25 NDP 24 Bloc 17

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Interesting Vincent Marissal column on NPD's Operation Save the Furniture. 1) Voters want to vote for them but are put off by niqabs, more amenable talking about other issues. 2) NDP internal polling shows a Tory lead in Quebec City 3) Certain staffers begged Mulcair to stop answering niqab questions 4) a majority of his Quebec caucus disagrees with him on niqabs. 5) Door reaction to niqabs is so hostile that some candidates, particularly in Quebec City, have voluntarily stopped door canvassing for the past 2 weeks.

I still have a hard time comprehending how such a truly insignificant, symbolic issue is taking such centre stage. I suppose an issue like this is less complex and easier to understand, than something like the TPP, so voters are more likely to have a position on, and strong feelings about it, I guess.

To be fair, until we see the actual vote tallies we won't know if this is truly as big an issue as it been made out to be. If it is, this would be one of the stupidest reasons (though obviously not the only reason) ever for any party to lose an election.

[Holmes]

Interesting Vincent Marissal column on NPD's Operation Save the Furniture. 1) Voters want to vote for them but are put off by niqabs, more amenable talking about other issues. 2) NDP internal polling shows a Tory lead in Quebec City 3) Certain staffers begged Mulcair to stop answering niqab questions 4) a majority of his Quebec caucus disagrees with him on niqabs. 5) Door reaction to niqabs is so hostile that some candidates, particularly in Quebec City, have voluntarily stopped door canvassing for the past 2 weeks.

I still have a hard time comprehending how such a truly insignificant, symbolic issue is taking such centre stage. I suppose an issue like this is less complex and easier to understand, than something like the TPP, so voters are more likely to have a position on, and strong feelings about it, I guess.

To be fair, until we see the actual vote tallies we won't know if this is truly as big an issue as it been made out to be. If it is, this would be one of the stupidest reasons (though obviously not the only reason) ever for any party to lose an election.

Dude, these are Canadian voters we're talking about so...

[2952-0-0]

The NDP should have kept its lead in Quebec by attacking Harper and the Bloc for using the niqab to cover up their lack of solutions on bread and butter issues like the economy, health care, infrastructure, and so on. It could have then used social wedge issues of its own by pointing out how Harper's candidates include many opponents of same sex marriage or abortion, or how Harper doesn't care about climate change. But they played right into their hands by not tackling Harper head on.

[Holmes]

Yeah who's running the NDP's campaign? Fire him. I mean, it's already too late to make a difference, but the whole team should be fired. I know the media isn't friendly to the NDP but they shouldn't have let the focus of the election shift from issues that they were winning on to stupid sh**t like niqabs that racists (i.e. 80% of the population) in Quebec and Ontario freak out over. And who's running their social media campaign? This is the NDP, why did they allow the Liberals to have a much larger social media presence? They need to move into the 21st century, hire a team that actually knows how to run a campaign, and hope that Prime Minister Trudeau and his government are full of gaffes. Luckily, the latter will most likely happen.