Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[RogueBeaver]

That plugged-in activist quoted on caucus discontent? That's not even his killer quote. << Mulcair a réagi en libéral, ce qu’il est. Comme son chef de cabinet. Ce sont des libéraux qui réagissent comme des libéraux, sans avoir consulté le parti ni le caucus. »

[cp]

Way, way, WAY too early to start saying things like "Prime Minister Trudeau". What is this, May 1968?

I don't doubt there will be a lot of analysis of what went right/wrong with the NDP campaign, but my impression right now is that the niqab issue was a symptom not a cause of the NDP's decline. As mentioned elsewhere, they got outflanked by the Liberals on the left and ran a conservative (in rhetoric) campaign at a time when a 'change' narrative took off. That isn't really their fault; they made their strategy and stuck with it, it just happened to be less successful this time around.

As for the niqab issue itself, there's been quite a bit of pushback on it, despite the populist resonance it undoubtedly has. Look at this and this for a clue about how the niqab issue is playing out.

[DL]

The NDP should have kept its lead in Quebec by attacking Harper and the Bloc for using the niqab to cover up their lack of solutions on bread and butter issues like the economy, health care, infrastructure, and so on. It could have then used social wedge issues of its own by pointing out how Harper's candidates include many opponents of same sex marriage or abortion, or how Harper doesn't care about climate change. But they played right into their hands by not tackling Harper head on.

I watched the French debate on TVA last Friday and this is precisely what Mulcair said and did...

[2952-0-0]

The NDP should have kept its lead in Quebec by attacking Harper and the Bloc for using the niqab to cover up their lack of solutions on bread and butter issues like the economy, health care, infrastructure, and so on. It could have then used social wedge issues of its own by pointing out how Harper's candidates include many opponents of same sex marriage or abortion, or how Harper doesn't care about climate change. But they played right into their hands by not tackling Harper head on.

I watched the French debate on TVA last Friday and this is precisely what Mulcair said and did...

He should have done so two weeks earlier back when he was at 45%. The Conservatives would come across as desperate, not confident, and then they would have quietly dropped it.

[DC Al Fine]

Way, way, WAY too early to start saying things like "Prime Minister Trudeau". What is this, May 1968?

This.

For all we know, Mulcair could recover, or the Bloc could win enough seats to ruin the coalition math, or Harper could win a majority or....

No sense bringing the fat lady out to sing yet. This is Canadian politics after all.

[DC Al Fine]

I should also point out that Nanos had the NDP at 24% this far out in 2011. Big swings can happen.

[Thomas D]

Pointless Math:

In 2006 the Conservatives won 40.2% of the seats. Which for this year would mean 136 seats. Just tossing that out there so I didn't figure that out for nothing.

[Volrath50]

Way, way, WAY too early to start saying things like "Prime Minister Trudeau". What is this, May 1968?

This.

For all we know, Mulcair could recover, or the Bloc could win enough seats to ruin the coalition math, or Harper could win a majority or....

No sense bringing the fat lady out to sing yet. This is Canadian politics after all.

I think part of the issue is the self-fulfilling prophecy of polls and their reporting. The NDP dropped a bit in the polls, and journalists started writing "IT'S ALL OVER FOR THE NDP" type articles, creating a further drop in the polls and even more doomsaying articles and so on, creating a viscous cycle. The same sort of thing happened to Ignatieff last time, and happens all the time in US primary elections (part of what did Walker in, IMO).

[cp]

I should also point out that Nanos had the NDP at 24% this far out in 2011. Big swings can happen.

Well, sort of. The NDP didn't fully crest until the final week of the campaign, but their ascent in the polls began nearly a month before election day.

I'm not denying that last-minute swings can happen, or that the NDP's final result in 2011 wasn't a consequence of big shifts in the final fortnight. But even in the seemingly earth-shattering reversal of the 2011 campaign there were detectable trends several weeks out.

This year the NDP has been in a slow, steady (agonizing?) decline for over a month. Conversely, the Liberals have gained or held steady throughout. The Tories have fluctuated quite a bit, which for me portends the only real remaining possibility of surprise/volatility in the time remaining. We shall see.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

The federal NDP learned nothing from Andrea Horwath's stunning failure in 2014: why is Mulcair touting fiscal responsibility and budgetary balance? Why does the NDP yearn to express itself as a centrist party? No one gravitates towards the NDP because it's a pillar of respectability or whatever, soft left types look to the NDP as a principled party that embodies consistent left-wing values.

I watched the Globe and Mail debate. Trudeau was far more bold than Mulcair in terms of his rhetoric, policy vision and his willingness to argue for the left against Harper.

Do you think the NDP struggles in part because of their brand. People in seat rich BC and Ontario still have negative memories of past NDP governments. I am only asking this because it seems that the NDP has hard time finding a balance from left-to center left, in order to get elected. Instead the Liberals in this election and past elections have had success moving to the left. 

[136or142]

1.The NDP fortunes in Quebec in 2011 shot up after Jack Layton went on some incredibly popular talk show in that province and wowed practically every citizen there.

2.The NDP campaign team that is regarded as bumbling incompetents in this election is the same team that managed Jack Layton's campaign when they were regarded as geniuses.

3.We are seeing a converging of all the polls in Canada, is it possible all the firms are 'massaging' the numbers to achieve similar results as some firms were accused of doing in the United States?

I know a lot of the regional results are still quite different in each poll, but, it's the national numbers that, rightly or wrongly, most people pay attention to.

[136or142]

The federal NDP learned nothing from Andrea Horwath's stunning failure in 2014: why is Mulcair touting fiscal responsibility and budgetary balance? Why does the NDP yearn to express itself as a centrist party? No one gravitates towards the NDP because it's a pillar of respectability or whatever, soft left types look to the NDP as a principled party that embodies consistent left-wing values.

I watched the Globe and Mail debate. Trudeau was far more bold than Mulcair in terms of his rhetoric, policy vision and his willingness to argue for the left against Harper.

Do you think the NDP struggles in part because of their brand. People in seat rich BC and Ontario still have negative memories of past NDP governments. I am only asking this because it seems that the NDP has hard time finding a balance from left-to center left, in order to get elected. Instead the Liberals in this election and past elections have had success moving to the left. 

Provincially and more or less federally, the NDP is back at its traditional level of support in B.C and has been so provincially since 2005.  I don't know that the NDP governments of the 1990s here resonate much with people who regularly vote NDP, though they may have been one of the reasons the provincial NDP lost the 2013 election due to the reaction of swing voters.

In Ontario, it has taken the NDP longer to recover there both provincially and federally but they are now back to their traditional level of support of around 25% in the most recent elections.  (They were at higher levels provincially in the 1970s and early 1980s when they were led by two rather extraordinary politicians: David McDonald and then Stephen Lewis), however, it should not be forgotten that at the time the provincial Liberal Party was still a mostly right wing rural based party, and the center party was the P.Cs led by Bill Davis.  Only under the leadership of the psychiatrist Smith (Stuart Smith?) did the provincial liberals become the centrist, or center left party they are now and he was dogged by perceptions that his party was right wing, and by having a caucus comprised of mostly right wing rural members.

[Lincoln Republican]

Question.

If Harper and the Conservatives win a minority, is there any scenario under which they could survive as a government for a reasonable length of time, long enough to consolidate their position and go for a majority?

This has been explored in depth at least twice earlier on in this forum topic. The tl;dr version is: It's not likely, but it depends.

Well, excuse me, but I do not have time to read through 44 pages.

[adma]

Well, Quebec's always been the most "continental" of Canadian provinces, so in terms of 2015, it almost comes naturally for their inner Lepeniste to start showing...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Indeed. I have to say, as someone who is used to French political discourse, the current Québec issues seem all too familiar to me.

[RogueBeaver]

The only poll I trust in my province is Leger, and given his comments on English Canadian pollsters today he's probably not seeing the same thing. But yeah, this is a continuation of the accommodement raisonnable debate.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Seriously who ever is running the NDP campaign strategy needs to be fired ASAP.

[RogueBeaver]

NDP campaign is being run by Anne McGrath, Layton's former COS.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

NDP campaign is being run by Anne McGrath, Layton's former COS.

At the rate of the NDP's decline, I won't be surprised if they are relegated to 3rd party status again, At least according to the polls they are poised to lose 5-6% at the polls, I understand this is a move by the center-left to rally around the strongest Anti-Harper/Conservative party/leader, but the NDP is in a free fall.

[Hash]

Indeed. I have to say, as someone who is used to French political discourse, the current Québec issues seem all too familiar to me.

They're hardly 'issues' given that they're completely invented fantasies, much like the 'reasonable accommodations' which were by and large invented fantasies.

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking of which, the Herouxville councillor in question recently resurfaced. He's naturally delighted.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Indeed. I have to say, as someone who is used to French political discourse, the current Québec issues seem all too familiar to me.

They're hardly 'issues' given that they're completely invented fantasies, much like the 'reasonable accommodations' which were by and large invented fantasies.

I don't know about that. The concept of laïcité, from what I understand of it, hits at the heart of themes around French citizenship, identity, and democracy. It's very real. I mean, I don't think it justifies something that looks to me like discrimination and race-baiting, but it's important to some Quebecers for more than just racist reasons.

[DC Al Fine]

FYI, the last few days of Nanos polling shows the NDP stabilizing and the Liberals declining.

[adma]

Yeah, good news for the NDP about today's poll is that they're once again on the upswing, nationwide.

The *bad* news is, they remain static in Quebec and the Cons are still going up there.

[DL]

Yeah, good news for the NDP about today's poll is that they're once again on the upswing, nationwide.

The *bad* news is, they remain static in Quebec and the Cons are still going up there.

That's not quite true, according to Nanos the Tories are stalled in the high teens in Quebec and the BQ is getting over the 20% mark. According to Forum the NDP is actually up a bit in Quebec this week compared to last week with 34% compared to 32%...at 34% and a 10 point lead over the next largest party, the NDP would still win the vast majority of seats in Quebec.