Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[King of Kensington]

The Star tends to be very Liberal friendly, they only endorsed half-heatedly the NDP 2011 because the party was a head of the Liberals, 2006 and 2008 were the Liberals. They only endorsed the NDP one other time in 1979 and the old federal PCs in 1972.

A friend put it this way:
"The The Toronto Star: By far the easiest to predict. The Star's traditionally Liberal-aligned editorial board will enthusiastically and unreservedly endorse the Trudeau Liberals. Its editorial will extoll Trudeau's "optimism" and "youthfulness", and will say that he's "defied his critics" during this campaign. It will also praise his "bold economic strategy", which he embraced at "considerable political risk", and instruct even its less sympathetic readership to vote "strategically" (i.e. Liberal) to "turn the page on the dark years of Stephen Harper".
After a few token words of reservation (which will probably not mention Bill C-51) it will say, with insufferably saccharine earnestness, that "Justin" has "a touch of his father" about him, and that the final days of this campaign have "something of the excitement of that legendary summer in 1968" when the country "also turned an important page in its history".
The Voice of TorStar will offer some token words about "Mr Mulcair's NDP", and praise it for its "principled stand" on the niqab issue. It will then attack the NDP's opposition to the TPP as "old style politics" designed to "play to the base", and will say Thomas Mulcair's criticisms of Justin Trudeau [over C-51 and other quite specific things that won't be mentioned] "diminished his stature". It will praise the NDP for its "effective and admirable" years as Canada's Official Opposition and then reiterate its weird crush on the Trudeau Liberals with a great, flourishing crescendo of florid rhetoric."

And if the NDP had kept up the momentum, the Star would have been "forced" to endorse them again.  NDP whining about the "phony progressives" at the Star is tiresome and predictable. 

[Marokai Backbeat]

For the NDP those EKOS numbers are dreadful. Not that it needed to be said, but still...

[RogueBeaver]

Angus-Reid: 33/31/25.

[Holmes]

If the NDP can get 26% of the vote, then I would hold off writing the obituary. If they're in low 20's or lower, with a Liberal government, RIP.

[King of Kensington]

NDP leads in Saskatoon, Tories in Regina

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/strategic-voting-in-saskatchewan-1.3264417

[2952-0-0]

Mulcair enters third stage of grief: http://globalnews.ca/news/2268610/mulcair-says-hed-join-coalition-to-defeat-conservatives/

[Njall]

Nanos: 34/31/25.  (I don't think this was posted here already)

[136or142]

The Star will endorse Justin tomorrow.

And another star will rise in the morning.

[DC Al Fine]

Some more riding polls from various pollsters

Cowichan-Malahat-Langford
35-28-19-14

Nanaimo-Ladysmith
35-26-21-18

North Okanagan-Shuswap
41-38-12-9



Fredericton
43-32-14-12


Essex
38-37-22

Kenora
40-29-28

London North Centre
48-32-15

London West
38-37-20



Notre Dame de Grace-Westmount
40-33

[Holmes]

Kenora is disappointing. I'm surprised NDGW would've been a pickup if the NDP hadn't sh**t the bed.

[136or142]

Latest polls
EKOS, October 8, Cons 33.7%, NDP 20.4% Lib 33.8% B.Q 3.5% Green 7.2%
Angus Reid, October 9, Cons 33% NDP 25% Lib 31% B.Q  6% Green 3%
Nanos, October 9, Cons 28.6%, NDP 24.9%, Lib 34.8% B.Q 5.5% Green 5.4%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015

[136or142]

Australian Broadcast Corporation Program "Rear Vision" on the Canadian election.  Seems to be a week behind, and they interview Canadians but it's interesting to her the perspective of what those Australians find to be the most important things regarding the Canadian election.

http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/rearvision/canadian-elections/6809706

[adma]

Latest polls
EKOS, October 8, Cons 33.7%, NDP 20.4% Lib 33.8% B.Q 3.5% Green 7.2%
Angus Reid, October 9, Cons 33% NDP 25% Lib 31% B.Q  6% Green 3%
Nanos, October 9, Cons 28.6%, NDP 24.9%, Lib 34.8% B.Q 5.5% Green 5.4%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015

Probably(?) a blip, but it's interesting that the Cons dipped 2.4% in a day with Nanos--which brings them closer to the (static) NDP than the Libs...

[King of Kensington]

The NDP is now focused on ensuring a respectable third place.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Will the bloc actually rebound in seats? Ugh.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If you love polling data, be prepared to be amazed:



Liberals doing very well in the "riding clusters" being only 8 points behind in the "blowout CPC win" category, neck and neck in the "strong CPC win", fairly competitive in those categorised as CPC-NDP races, winning in "NDP blowouts" and blowing away the "three way races".

There is also some sub regional analysis in there at pages 44 onwards

[Vosem]

Will the bloc actually rebound in seats? Ugh.

Eh, 2011 was still probably a mortal blow even if the Bloc does rebound now (the way 1993 was a mortal blow to the PCs, even though they rebounded in 1997 and stayed in Parliament until 2003). Discounting 2011, the Bloc's worst-ever performances were 38 seats (in 2000), 10.0% of the all-Canada vote (in 2008), and 37.9% of the Quebec vote (in 1997). Those were their worst performances, and they are nowhere near any of those numbers.

[136or142]

Will the bloc actually rebound in seats? Ugh.

Eh, 2011 was still probably a mortal blow even if the Bloc does rebound now (the way 1993 was a mortal blow to the PCs, even though they rebounded in 1997 and stayed in Parliament until 2003). Discounting 2011, the Bloc's worst-ever performances were 38 seats (in 2000), 10.0% of the all-Canada vote (in 2008), and 37.9% of the Quebec vote (in 1997). Those were their worst performances, and they are nowhere near any of those numbers.

Yes, but there won't be any Quebecers who vote for any B.Q M.P (except maybe 1) not because they support the party, but because they like that person as an M.P.  So, I would expect their vote to be a lot more concentrated this time around.  As I've said before,  most polls are showing them with a lead in Central and Northern Quebec (except for North East Quebec where they seem to be in a battle with the Conservatives.)

[RogueBeaver]

Forum: 37/31/23. Hoping that whatever the outcome, someone gets a majority.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

But minorities are where the fun happens

[DavidB.]

Forum: 37/31/23. Hoping that whatever the outcome, someone gets a majority.

Your colors aren't right: you mixed up the Tories and the Grits. You had me hoping for a near Conservative majority This ought to be a crime

[RogueBeaver]

Indeed, I goofed. But barring a Tory collapse to 2004 levels in ON or major gains here, Justin's not getting a majority. Similar math problem that PCs had from 1962 to 1984.

[136or142]

Andrew Coyne ‏@acoyne  12m12 minutes ago
Second poll today to show Libs with 6-7 pt lead on Tories. I bet a dollar it’s 9-10 by Tuesday.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Looks like we're maybe heading to a Liberal minority.

On another note: if the Tories become the Official Opposition, would Harper immediately resign or would his ego keep him as leader of the opposition? Who would be in the best position to replace Harper as Tory leader?

Seats predictions based on CBC: 131/122/80/4/1

[RogueBeaver]

Harper would immediately retire from politics. Interim leader would be selected and a leadership convention would be held sometime next spring. Jason Kenney has the permanent leadership if he runs.