Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[adma]

Re Mulcair in his own seat: remember, too, that he had a much higher-profile Liberal opponent in 2011 (ex-MP Martin Cauchon).  Consider that as a projection-model stats-skewer.

And re "charismatic" successors to Mulcair: language barrier or not, that's why I've repeatedly offered Charlie Angus as a prospect.

[Vosem]

Re Mulcair in his own seat: remember, too, that he had a much higher-profile Liberal opponent in 2011 (ex-MP Martin Cauchon).  Consider that as a projection-model stats-skewer.

The seeming unlikelihood of Mulcair being defeated may make people more likely to vote against him. Ignatieff had a much more prominent challenger in 2008 than 2011. The woman who defeated Duceppe, too, was unknown before she won.

And re "charismatic" successors to Mulcair: language barrier or not, that's why I've repeatedly offered Charlie Angus as a prospect.

If the NDP picks a leader who does not speak French, the bottom will fall out in Quebec. Ideally, if Mulcair loses, they would have to replace him with someone also from Quebec. From their present caucus, it could be Francoise Boivin or Alexandre Boulerice, or they could recruit someone from outside Parliament. They just have to be from Quebec. Before Jack Layton, the last non-Quebecois party leader to see his party win Quebec was Lester Pearson, and that was before Quebecois separatism really took hold as a movement. Layton was an Ontarian politician who overcame these obstacles, sure, but he had a unique charisma and appeal, and also grew up in Quebec and was the son of a Quebecois politician. There's no (to my knowledge) NDP politician from English Canada who can appeal to Quebec the way Layton could.

I very much doubt that Mulcair will step down, in any case, unless he either loses his own seat or the NDP does not come in first place in Quebec. The NDP do not have anyone better.

[jaichind]

Interesting how Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets

https://predictionmarkets.ca/CA15.php

Has a lead of almost 6% for LPC over CPC yet still have the two neck-to-neck in terms of seats.   I guess they project LPC is growing its vote share in places where it does not matter. 

[jaichind]

Very informative article on how the vote share to seat translation logic work and how it makes a difference.

http://cdnelectionwatch.blogspot.ca/2015/10/understanding-projections-i-uniform-vs.html

[Sakrum]

With the NDP's numbers shrinking, what are the chances of Gilles Duceppe winning back his old seat?

[DL]

With the NDP's numbers shrinking, what are the chances of Gilles Duceppe winning back his old seat?

Very low. His old seat is a downtown, ethnically mixed cosmopolitan riding that is trending away from separatism and the new BQ message which is all about right wing xenophobia does not resonate in Montreal, if it works anywhere it is in rural areas.

[DL]

Re Mulcair in his own seat: remember, too, that he had a much higher-profile Liberal opponent in 2011 (ex-MP Martin Cauchon).  Consider that as a projection-model stats-skewer.

And re "charismatic" successors to Mulcair: language barrier or not, that's why I've repeatedly offered Charlie Angus as a prospect.

Choosing a leader who speaks no French is 100% out of the question. Period. GONG!!! This is a bilingual country and any party that picks a unilingual leader is basically telling Canadians that they are not serious contenders. Can you imagine any federal party having a leader who could not take part in a leaders debate in French? It would make the party an object of ridicule. To even suggest the possibility of a unilingual leader for any of the big three federal parties is absurd.

In any case, while I think Charlie angus is a good MP, I don't even find him particularly "charismatic" he's just OK. One NDP MP who IS charismatic and who speaks excellent French and who made a strong showing in the 2012 contest is Nathan Cullen from BC...to me if Mulcair stepped aside he would be an obvious replacement

[toaster]

Re Mulcair in his own seat: remember, too, that he had a much higher-profile Liberal opponent in 2011 (ex-MP Martin Cauchon).  Consider that as a projection-model stats-skewer.

And re "charismatic" successors to Mulcair: language barrier or not, that's why I've repeatedly offered Charlie Angus as a prospect.

Choosing a leader who speaks no French is 100% out of the question. Period. GONG!!! This is a bilingual country and any party that picks a unilingual leader is basically telling Canadians that they are not serious contenders. Can you imagine any federal party having a leader who could not take part in a leaders debate in French? It would make the party an object of ridicule. To even suggest the possibility of a unilingual leader for any of the big three federal parties is absurd.

In any case, while I think Charlie angus is a good MP, I don't even find him particularly "charismatic" he's just OK. One NDP MP who IS charismatic and who speaks excellent French and who made a strong showing in the 2012 contest is Nathan Cullen from BC...to me if Mulcair stepped aside he would be an obvious replacement

I think Cullen comes off as too contrived and forced, and he'd have a hard time with Quebec.  Finding another Jack is going to be tough, but if they want to get back into a position where they can win, they should begin that search.  Someone softer, that, like the news outlets always like to point out, you'd like to have a drink with.  I don't think blue-collar labour could see themselves having a beer with Cullen, they way they could with Jack.   I'm not sure if someone with the kind of appeal, and balance, that we had with Jack will ever be found, but I don't think Mulcair is the guy.

[DL]

There will be plenty of time to speculate on future NDP leaders down the road, but anyone who is not perfectly bilingual should be barred from even running. Bilingualism is a minimum qualification for the job. End of story. Anyone who is not bilingual who would even consider running to be a national party leader leads to see a shrink to be treated for delusional hallucinations.

Fwiw, Cullen has won four elections in and is very popular in a totally blue collar northern BC riding full of loggers, fishermen and miners and First Nations. I guess they must not find him "contrived"

[Thomas D]

I see on Twitter there are still campaign events going on today. I take it Thanksgiving is a bigger deal here in the States? Because if an American politician did that their career would be done. 

[DC Al Fine]

My own view is that had Joe Clark remained on as leader until the sponsorship scandal came to light, that the P.Cs under his leadership in the next election would have come close to sweeping Ontario and maybe much of the Atlantic and likely some parts of Quebec as well.

The PCs could not have come close to sweeping Ontario because maybe 1/3 of right-wing voters in the province were loyal CA voters, and PC voters tended to be concentrated in more Liberal areas, like suburbs. They may have gained, but not enough. They also would not be able to break through in Quebec under a western leader in Joe Clark. They may have gained seats in your hypothetical 2004, but they couldn't hit 30 across Canada, and such a party has no long-term future.

So, you leave out that the result that poor decision making by the parties involved played a role in their eventual demise and they were maybe not as inevitable as you seem to be suggesting.  (In the case of Clark, there had been rumors for a number of years following the 1995 referendum that some Federal Quebec Liberals had been engaged in illegal activity, as was more or less eventual brought to light.  He should have found out at what stage those rumors were being investigated before resigning as leader.)

You can answer "poor decision-making" to a lot of things, but that ignores the reasons behind the poor decision-making. Also, are you blaming Joe Clark for not being able to see the future in this post?

Indeed. The idea that a PC party led by Joe freaking Clark would be able to even somewhat unite the right is risible.

[DC Al Fine]

Wife and I just voted in an advance poll. We were the only voters there. I'm told it was more crowded on Friday and Saturday.

[DavidB.]

To even suggest the possibility of a unilingual leader for any of the big three federal parties is absurd.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrliDQs1Jps

[136or142]

For those who don't know which poll to believe.  I think it's telling that Harper is spending nearly all his time in Conservative marginal ridings.  In the 2013 B.C election in contrast, even though every poll had the NDP in the lead, Christy Clark spent nearly all her time in NDP marginal ridings, especially in the interior.

[DavidB.]

Yes, this is obviously going to be the end for Harper, unless something dramatic happens.

[VPH]

With the NDP's numbers shrinking, what are the chances of Gilles Duceppe winning back his old seat?

Very low. His old seat is a downtown, ethnically mixed cosmopolitan riding that is trending away from separatism and the new BQ message which is all about right wing xenophobia does not resonate in Montreal, if it works anywhere it is in rural areas.

Exactly this. LSM is a typically culturally left QS-voting riding. There are blue collar portions up towards the HoMa neighborhood that are more culturally to the right and will undoubtedly go for Duceppe. The HoMa part of LSM is a bit grittier, with a semi high crime rate and a high rate of poverty compared to the Plateau portions of the riding that tend to be gentrified and quite hip these days. There are also some polls with high numbers of Portuguese and Italian immigrants who always vote Liberal. Neither of these aberrations is enough to change the overall riding vote though.

[RogueBeaver]

Graves' thoughts on potential outcomes.

[Lotuslander]

I think Cullen comes off as too contrived and forced, and he'd have a hard time with Quebec.

Totally agree. Have never seen much charisma with Cullen and he also apparently suffers from a likability factor. Would also be the "green" NDP candidate. I even doubt if he would fly in most of BC. Cullen wins his seat with 90%+ of the FN vote and his riding also has the largest FN population in BC.

Personally I had Megan Leslie in mind. But whatever.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Could Leslie herself be in danger, considering the Liberals are expected to romp the Atlantic?

[RogueBeaver]

Could Leslie herself be in danger, considering the Liberals are expected to romp the Atlantic?

Paging DC.

[RogueBeaver]

Harper at risk of losing 12 seats in ON.

[2952-0-0]

Harper at risk of losing 12 seats in ON.

It'll be an excellent night for them only to lose 12 Ontario seats. But the fact they expect Julian Fantino to lose means they privately expect a sea of red from Burlington to Ajax (with blue Thornhill and a few orange islands).

[Vosem]

Harper at risk of losing 12 seats in ON.

It'll be an excellent night for them only to lose 12 Ontario seats. But the fact they expect Julian Fantino to lose means they privately expect a sea of red from Burlington to Ajax (with blue Thornhill and a few orange islands).

Yeah, losing 12 Ontario seats would be better than their 2008 showing. If the Tories overperform to that extent they may well still form a minority government.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

The fat lady is singing, guys. Pretty down in the dumps over the fact that Justin Trudeau will be the next prime minister of Canada. I had a dream last night where Tom Mulcair was explaining his thought process over whether he'd resign...

It's all just very sad. I would've preferred Mulcair over Justin, and the novelty of a pragmatic federal NDP government would've at least been interesting. Plus, I think Tom is a pretty upstanding guy. Just awful to see his campaign tank over a niqab (among other things, like the self-fulfilling prophecies that are polls, which is infuriating). Now we're back to the old status quo, I think.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Is it reasonable to say the Bloc Quebecois could get 10+ seats or is that pushing it? I'm looking at a graphical summary of campaign period polling and notice a steady rise in support since Sept 24th and was wondering if it was feasible for them to pick up any significant amount of seats? Obviously that would be to the detriment of the NDP.