Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[King of Kensington]

Mainstreet Technologies?

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet Technologies?

They did a lot of polling in the Alberta election.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Aren't they the firm that showed the Tories up by like ten points a week or two ago?

[King of Kensington]

By sheer coincidence, there's a poll that bring together the two main strands of conversation so far (the debate and the vote patterns of the GTA):

Trudeau seen as strongest candidate by Torontonians in 1st debate

An interesting snippet from it:

"Trudeau was especially strong with residents in North York (31 per cent) and Peel Region (27 per cent), while Harper scored well in Etobicoke (27 per cent)."

Here's the Forum poll.  I am almost sure they mixed up their 905 and City of Toronto numbers, so...

City of Toronto:

NDP  37%
Liberals  32%
Conservatives  27%

905 ("GTA"):

Liberals  39%
Conservatives  34%
NDP  23%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/GTA%20Post-Debate%20News%20Release%20%282015%2008%2007%29%20-%208572%20-%20Forum%20Research.pdf

If the poll isn't total junk, it squares with adma's "905 centrist reasonableness even in the face of a left-right polarization with the center squeezed out" hypothesis.

[DL]

The Star has a riding poll in Eglinton-Lawrence and the results are largely in synch with what an Ontario swing projection would show:

Joe Oliver CPC 41% (down 5% from 2011)
Mendicino Liberal 34% (down 4% from 2011)
NDP (they have no candidate yet) - 20% (UP 8% from 2011)

If this trend of the NDP being up across Toronto at the expense of both the Liberals and Conservatives, look for the NDP to end up with about 11+ seats in the City of Toronto.

Its worth noting that typically Eglinton-Lawrence is the absolute worst seat for the NDP in all of Toronto - they usually get less than 10% there and even getting 12% in 2011 was a strong showing for that riding. 20% is a very strong showing for that riding and if the NDP is at 20% in Eglinton-Lawrence, imagine where they likely are in seats that are actual targets?

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/09/joe-oliver-leading-in-eglinton-lawrence-poll.html

[adma]

If the poll isn't total junk, it squares with adma's "905 centrist reasonableness even in the face of a left-right polarization with the center squeezed out" hypothesis.

Well, look at it this way--I was a naysayer when pollsters were predicting the Libs would still hold on to 70/80/90 seats even if they slipped under 25%.  But I'm a counter-naysayer re the presumption that the Cons have the 905 in the bag--even if it'll have, in the end, less to do with active "strategic voting" than with the more passive matter of Cons practically handing over presumed "safe seats" to the Liberals.

A lot of 905ers would rather their Conservative be a bluer shade of Paul Martin, IOW.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, there definitely a lot of well to do Ontarians who believe that politics ought to be boring.

[King of Kensington]

A lot of 905ers would rather their Conservative be a bluer shade of Paul Martin, IOW.

Of course, but that option is not on offer from either the Liberal or Conservative parties. 

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, there definitely a lot of well to do Ontarians who believe that politics ought to be boring.

Wouldn't defying the trend and sticking to the Liberals like it's Rae vs. Peterson in 1990 out of conviction be more "interesting" than opting for the more "predictable" Conservative option in a left/right polarization?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well I never said that the craving of boredom could not have (paradoxically) interesting consequences...

[King of Kensington]

NDP candidate removed after being exposed by the Conservatives for being "anti-Israel."

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/08/09/morgan-wheeldon-ndp-israel-nova-scotia_n_7962834.html?utm_hp_ref=tw

Harper has made Israel a wedge issue.  Mulcair had stated in the debate that he "defers to nobody" when it comes to defending Israel.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Harper has made Israel a wedge issue.

That is the most depressing thing I have heard in days.

[RogueBeaver]

Justin confirms his Globe debate attendance for Sept. 17. Mulcair's announcing his final debate list today.

[lilTommy]

This was interesting, not sure if/how we can extrapolate any seats moving hands:
https://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/10/new-democrats-making-gains-in-45-liberal-party-two-way-races-says-pollster-lyle/43035

"...the NDP is likely to make gains in 45 seats where the Liberals won with either a strong majority or two-way races in the 2011 election and another 33 close seats between the Conservatives and NDP in the last election, now transposed under new ridings."

"The survey revealed that in the 45 seats across the country that are Liberal two-way races or strong wins based on the last election results, the NDP now had the support of 30.5 per cent of Canadians, the Liberals 35.9 and the Conservatives at 22 per cent. In the 2011 federal election, the Liberals had the support of 39.2 per cent, NDP 21 per cent and the Conservatives 35 per cent. This means the NDP has come up from 18 points behind to 5.5 points behind. The Liberal support has gone down by about four points and the Conservative support has gone down by about 12 points.

In the two-way races between the Conservative Party and the NDP in 33 ridings across the country, the survey indicated the NDP vote had remained almost the same while the Conservative had gone down and the Liberal vote had gone up. In the 2011 election, the Conservatives won 42.8 per cent of the votes, Liberal Party nine per cent, and the NDP 40.9 per cent. The survey results showed the Conservative Party support was at 26.3 per cent, the Liberals at 22.2 per cent and the NDP at 40.4 per cent."

[Hatman 🍁]

This was interesting, not sure if/how we can extrapolate any seats moving hands:
https://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/10/new-democrats-making-gains-in-45-liberal-party-two-way-races-says-pollster-lyle/43035

In the two-way races between the Conservative Party and the NDP in 33 ridings across the country, the survey indicated the NDP vote had remained almost the same while the Conservative had gone down and the Liberal vote had gone up. In the 2011 election, the Conservatives won 42.8 per cent of the votes, Liberal Party nine per cent, and the NDP 40.9 per cent. The survey results showed the Conservative Party support was at 26.3 per cent, the Liberals at 22.2 per cent and the NDP at 40.4 per cent."

Blue Liberals coming home? This is concerning, as these voters are likely to switch back to the Tories to stop the NDP.

[DL]

Blue Liberals coming home? This is concerning, as these voters are likely to switch back to the Tories to stop the NDP.

Yeah, i can just see all those "Blue Liberals" clutching their pearls in terror that the NDP will NOT increase personal income taxes on those making over $150k per year while the Liberals WILL! Imagine the fear that must be gripping the Rosedale tennis club "Hey, did you hear, Mulcair is NOT going to raise our taxes - I'm so scared"

[RogueBeaver]

Scott Andrews running as Indie Grit in Avalon. DC, how well do you think he'll do?

[andrew_c]

Wendy Yuan disqualified from Steveston-Richmond East LPC nomination.

[DC Al Fine]

Scott Andrews running as Indie Grit in Avalon. DC, how well do you think he'll do?

In my uneducated opinion? About the same as Guergis did.

[Hatman 🍁]

Blue Liberals coming home? This is concerning, as these voters are likely to switch back to the Tories to stop the NDP.

Yeah, i can just see all those "Blue Liberals" clutching their pearls in terror that the NDP will NOT increase personal income taxes on those making over $150k per year while the Liberals WILL! Imagine the fear that must be gripping the Rosedale tennis club "Hey, did you hear, Mulcair is NOT going to raise our taxes - I'm so scared"

People aren't paying attention yet.

[RogueBeaver]

FTQ endorses the NPD. No surprise.

Radio-Canada announces a second French debate.

[136or142]

Wendy Yuan disqualified from Steveston-Richmond East LPC nomination.

Totally disgusting.  Joe Peschisolido is generally regarded as a joke in Richmond and I don't like him either.  As only the Liberals can defeat the Conservatives in Steveston-Richmond East there is no point in me engaging in strategic voting now.  I'll likely either vote NDP or Green.  I'd even vote Conservative if I like their local candidate Kenny Chiu the best,as unlike the present M.P for this riding Kerri Lynn Findley (who is running in the new Delta Riding) or Alice Wong from the neighboring riding of Richmond Center, he doesn't seem to be totally offensive.

[lilTommy]

FTQ endorses the NPD. No surprise.

One can argue it is somewhat surprising, more of a "Finally" moment. FTQ endorsed the Bloc in 1993, 1997, 2000, 2006, 2008, and 2011.

[136or142]

Liberal candidate Ken Hardie says the Conservatives will dump M.P Nina Grewal in favor of former Provincial cabinet minister Kevin Falcon.

[DL]

Liberal candidate Ken Hardie says the Conservatives will dump M.P Nina Grewal in favor of former Provincial cabinet minister Kevin Falcon.

Apparently the rumour is false and Falcon is not running for anyone anywhere