Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, how many MPs elected on sub-30% vote shares? My guess is potentially quite a few.

[cp]

A rather interesting last second development:

Andrew Coyne resigns as editor of Editorials and Comment at the National Post

[Panhandle Progressive]

For those interested in live election results (no video), you can check out:

http://www.cbc.ca/includes/federalelection/dashboard/index.html

http://www.ctvnews.ca/electionresults

https://www.google.com/#q=canadian+election+results

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/10/18/2015-election-results-live-federal-vote_n_8307220.html

I'm sure there will be more in the coming hours.

[trebor204]

More results:

http://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx

This link might work. (Direct Download link in csv format)
http://enr.elections.ca/DownloadResults.aspx

[DC Al Fine]

A rather interesting last second development:

Andrew Coyne resigns as editor of Editorials and Comment at the National Post

And he says on Twitter he's voting NDP. Kind of bizarre coming from a quasi libertarian.

[Phony Moderate]

Bah, won't be getting much sleep tonight and tomorrow is a mildly important day...oh well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some vague predictions wrt Trudeaumania II: Electric Boogaloo

Maritimes: the Liberals are likely to dominate here and will almost certainly make significant gains. The Conservatives will likely do very badly and may even be reduced to one or two seats. The NDP hold six seats in the region; this number will fall but it is not clear by how much.

Quebec: the NDP dominated here (to the shock of everyone let us not forget) last time, but now face the prospect of serious losses. Exactly how serious is impossible to be sure of. The Liberals will make serious gains. It is hard to say how well the Tories and the BQ will do. Almost anything could happen.

Ontario: a disaster for the Liberals in 2011, they now seem poised to sweep through the province. Exactly how well they do here will be critical to the overall result. Both the Tories and the NDP are under serious pressure, but ought to at least retain their strongholds. An area to watch may be the east of the province: historically a Liberal stronghold it has recently been dominated by the Tories. Quite a lot of seats there...

Manitoba: the Liberals are likely to make strong gains in Winnipeg and might fluke one or two elsewhere (it does happen sometimes). The Tories are under a huge amount of strain here, while the NDP are suffering due to an unpopular provincial government (but then thanks to said provincial government they have only two seats to defend).

Saskatchewan: new riding boundaries and the decline of Tory support nationally makes things harder to predict here than for years. There are potential against-the-grain gains for the NDP here and the Liberals have a few hopes as well. But nothing is certain: a proper poll would have been nice.

Alberta: the Tories are under pressure in the big cities and it is critical for them that the line holds. The Liberals would love to win a few seats here and maybe the NDP can still add to their total (even if this seems much less likely than a few months ago).

BC: as confusing a situation as Quebec, probably. The Tories are under monstrous strain here but if the vote splits work out right may emerge surprisingly unscathed. Or they may be reduced to a tiny emaciated rump. The Liberals will gain a lot of votes, but will they gain many seats? The NDP are under pressure in places but could make gains elsewhere. The Greens are super optimistic, but then they always are.

Territories: lmao

[Boston Bread]

I guess that makes Coyne an Ignatieff-Hudak-Mulcair voter. What an odd combination. Although he's voting NDP only to prevent a majority.

I don't know what's funny about the territories. I think the Liberals will sweep all three of them, that's what both my model and 308 is showing atm.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Don't they sort of go their own way up north?

[DC Al Fine]

I don't know what's funny about the territories. I think the Liberals will sweep all three of them, that's what both my model and 308 is showing atm.

Trying to predict the North is like trying to predict a small town mayoral election based on national polls.

[RogueBeaver]

Earl's projection: 151/116/54/16/1.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

So, how many MPs elected on sub-30% vote shares? My guess is potentially quite a few.

I'd say a lot of Quebec, judging by 308's breakdown. Probably some in later urban areas outside Quebec thanks to the Greens taking up a few-to-10 percent.

[DC Al Fine]

Earl's projection: 151/116/54/16/1.

16 Bloc seats? That's a high prediction. Interesting to see if he's right.

[Andrew1]

A point of frustration: why are proper provincial polls almost never done during federal campaigns?

Probe Research did a Manitoba poll a few weeks ago

[Boston Bread]

I'm assuming Earl only uses Ekos numbers, which have the Bloc only 3 points behind the NDP, in which case 16 Bloc seats make sense. Other polls have a larger gap.

[Ebsy]

Earl's projection: 151/116/54/16/1.

16 Bloc seats? That's a high prediction. Interesting to see if he's right.

It's EKOS, so...

[Clyde1998]

There aren't any exit polls in Canada - are there?

[Holmes]

I hope Rathika Sitsabaiesan can win tonight.

[Barnes]

Here are the provincial poll closing times in both local time and Eastern Time.

[toaster]

I guess that makes Coyne an Ignatieff-Hudak-Mulcair voter. What an odd combination. Although he's voting NDP only to prevent a majority.

I don't know what's funny about the territories. I think the Liberals will sweep all three of them, that's what both my model and 308 is showing atm.

I've spoken with 2 people in my riding (Etobicoke-Lakeshore) who are far-left guys, who have both said they would be voting Conservative for this same reason.  People on all sides are trying to avoid a Liberal majority. 

[Thomas D]

CBC Live Stream via Youtube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWFNl0K18A4

[DC Al Fine]

Newfoundland is going to be almost rural Alberta boring tonight

[Boston Bread]

I hope Rathika Sitsabaiesan can win tonight.

Her prospects aren't looking good. I have the Liberals at >50% there. Mulcair is polling worse than Horwath in ON, for goodness sakes. Even Danforth can't be safe anymore.

[jaichind]

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com//news/canada/canadian-politics/forget-the-pollsters-wild-guesses-on-who-will-win-in-each-of-the-338-ridings-tonight


These guys predict tiny cpc win

[Hash]

Closed.