Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)
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  Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)
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Author Topic: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)  (Read 233050 times)
136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #425 on: August 31, 2015, 05:06:41 AM »
« edited: August 31, 2015, 05:13:14 AM by Adam T »

In B.C, by the end of today, the only slot left to fill out the ballot for the three main parties is the NDP need a candidate for Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies.  

It seems both the Conservatives and the Liberals appointed at least one candidate.  In the Conservative case though, it was only in Matsqui-Mission-Fraser Canyon where the original candidate, Liv Grewal was dropped.  The Liberals also appointed only one or two candidates, in their case, the candidate(s) they appointed were people who lost the nomination in nearby ridings.

So, unlike in 2011 when the Liberals appointed or nominated a number of candidates who had never lived anywhere near where they ran, it seems that if not all the the candidates for the three main parties  live in where they're running, they live very close to where they are running.  (the NDP may also have appointed/nominated one candidate who did not live near where they ran, I can't remember.)

I guess the NDP could appoint or nominate a candidate in that Prince George riding who doesn't live anywhere near there, but they had said previously that they were talking to a few people (although none has yet emerged.)  If they didn't pan out, there were two defeated nomination candidates in the adjacent Cariboo-Prince George riding, and one of them lives in Prince George, and she may be persuaded to run.  She might not be interested, of course, as while Cariboo-Prince George may be a winnable riding for the NDP if the B.C polls stay as they are now, Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies almost certainly still isn't.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #426 on: August 31, 2015, 06:19:21 AM »

Abacus: 31 (-4), 30 (+1), 28 (+2).

Biggest changes are in ON and ATL.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #427 on: August 31, 2015, 06:54:41 AM »

NDP - 84%
GPC - 75%
LPC - 74%
CPC - 40%

The Liberals so far are just all over the map... They criticize the Tories for running deficit, then plan to run huge deficits? they attack the NDP as being right-wing, austerity pushers yet do it with arguably one of the most right wing finance ministers who is credited with introducing Austerity to Canada in the 90's? Both the Tories and the Liberals attack the NDP for not costing out their plan, yet neither have costed out plans?
Mulcair did move to fast to say he will have a balanced budget, to me this signals a massive change in spending plans... possibly de-funding the Senate if that's even possible? (he's already mentioned it's something the NDP will not spend on) Makes me think the Corp Tax rate will be closer to 17% as well... and I have a feeling there will be more revenue generating tolls. All speculation Smiley 
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #428 on: August 31, 2015, 08:50:48 AM »

Pretending to run to the left of the NDP worked for the Liberals last year in Ontario. They're hoping the strategy will work again this time. In Ontario, they were helped by the media actively backing this message and looking for all the so-called NDPers complaining about how centrist the party had got. I don't think the media is as willing to do that this time.
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Krago
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« Reply #429 on: August 31, 2015, 09:04:04 AM »

Pretending to run to the left of the NDP worked for the Liberals last year in Ontario. They're hoping the strategy will work again this time. In Ontario, they were helped by the media actively backing this message and looking for all the so-called NDPers complaining about how centrist the party had got. I don't think the media is as willing to do that this time.

Neither the Liberals nor the Toronto Star possess any sense of shame.  The Liberals will continue their Wynne-ing strategy, while the Toronto Star will aid and abet.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #430 on: August 31, 2015, 01:02:34 PM »

Wells on Grit polling. We'll see what happens when the Phony War ends next week.
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VPH
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« Reply #431 on: August 31, 2015, 01:37:12 PM »

Green-62%
NDP-61%
Liberal-57%
Bloc Quebecois-44%
Conservative-36%
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #432 on: August 31, 2015, 05:13:31 PM »

Al's favourite Wikipedia page of all time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015_by_constituency
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ottermax
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« Reply #433 on: August 31, 2015, 05:29:52 PM »

The NDP seems to be doing well in the riding polls relative to their national poll numbers, or is that a misreading by me?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #434 on: August 31, 2015, 05:39:53 PM »

The NDP seems to be doing well in the riding polls relative to their national poll numbers, or is that a misreading by me?

Maybe, but they tend to be in areas that are more receptive of an NDP increase in the polls. a lot of them are in urban areas where the NDP has increased the most in polls.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #435 on: September 01, 2015, 07:46:17 AM »

Wells on Grit polling. We'll see what happens when the Phony War ends next week.

What a stupid article. First,  it puts way too much importance on the regional sub samples which are too small to believe the numbers are dead on.

More importantly, it overlooks that when Dion got 26% of the vote in 2008, it wasn't a 3 way race.  If the Liberals got 26% of the vote this time, they'd probably win 100 seats.

I'd tweet that to Paul Wells, but if I did, I understand he'd block me.  He is said to be the most thin skinned journalist in Ottawa.
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Krago
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« Reply #436 on: September 01, 2015, 08:49:39 AM »

A friend loves to remind me on how he clobbered Paul Wells in Reach for the Top (high school quiz show) back in 1981.
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cp
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« Reply #437 on: September 01, 2015, 09:48:45 AM »

Maybe you could get your friend to tweet that at Wells just for fun Tongue

When I read that piece I thought it was really simplistic, but then I wondered whether that was because Wells was pitching his 'analysis' to a broader audience - i.e. not the psephologist-level discussion we have on forums like this.

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Boston Bread
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« Reply #438 on: September 01, 2015, 10:34:11 AM »

Looking at the riding polls, I counted 18 where the NDP fares better than in the 308 projection, 4 where they fared worse, and 5 where they agreed within 2 points. So there is a trend of the NDP doing better in riding polls than national polls.
I believed some of the riding polls where purposely conducted in places where pollsters believed had strong potential for NDP growth (particularly BC, and some urban Ontario ridings like Guelph, Kingston). So it's possible that the national and riding polls are both right if the NDP is underperforming in other areas.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #439 on: September 01, 2015, 10:38:36 AM »

Nanos actually has the NDP leading! http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news/politics/half-of-canadian-voters-undecided-poll/article26170445/?cmpid=rss1&click=sf_globe

Since their numbers are averaged over 4 weeks, the NDP must have been up significantly this week.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #440 on: September 01, 2015, 10:53:39 AM »

Nanos actually has the NDP leading! http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news/politics/half-of-canadian-voters-undecided-poll/article26170445/?cmpid=rss1&click=sf_globe

Since their numbers are averaged over 4 weeks, the NDP must have been up significantly this week.

31-30-29. Yikes.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #441 on: September 01, 2015, 07:11:09 PM »
« Edited: September 01, 2015, 07:21:05 PM by Adam T »

Maybe you could get your friend to tweet that at Wells just for fun Tongue

When I read that piece I thought it was really simplistic, but then I wondered whether that was because Wells was pitching his 'analysis' to a broader audience - i.e. not the psephologist-level discussion we have on forums like this.



Heh, as if on cue, Wells shows what a grade-a dick he is.  

"Paul Wells ‏@InklessPW  7h7 hours ago
Paul Wells retweeted Raffi Cavoukian
The Governor General, Elections Canada and the Constitution disagree with you, you flatulent crank.  

Raffi Cavoukian @Raffi_RC
it's the Harper #elxn42 run that ought to be in question—a lawless, rogue PM, running again—that's the issue. 1/2 https://twitter.com/InklessPW/status/638752419623620608

I doubt Paul Wells is well Hoang Cheesy

Edit: I called him a 'dick' and showed him the Jon Stewart youtube link. I wonder how long before he's blocked me as well.

Maybe it's wrong of me, but annoying people who are easily annoyed is so much fun.
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adma
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« Reply #442 on: September 01, 2015, 08:39:47 PM »

More importantly, it overlooks that when Dion got 26% of the vote in 2008, it wasn't a 3 way race.  If the Liberals got 26% of the vote this time, they'd probably win 100 seats.

And on *28%* of the vote in 1984, John Turner got 40 seats.
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andrew_c
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« Reply #443 on: September 02, 2015, 03:16:47 AM »

28% did the Liberals no good in 1984, because the PCs finished 22% ahead.  Many Liberal votes were wasted votes. In a 3-way race, 26% is only about 5-7% behind first place.  Favourable vote splits can deliver 100 seats on 26% of the vote.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #444 on: September 02, 2015, 05:25:20 AM »

Wells on Grit polling. We'll see what happens when the Phony War ends next week.

What a stupid article. First,  it puts way too much importance on the regional sub samples which are too small to believe the numbers are dead on.

More importantly, it overlooks that when Dion got 26% of the vote in 2008, it wasn't a 3 way race.  If the Liberals got 26% of the vote this time, they'd probably win 100 seats.

I'd tweet that to Paul Wells, but if I did, I understand he'd block me.  He is said to be the most thin skinned journalist in Ottawa.

You say that as if the party system simply sprung into existence from nothing. For better or worse, there's a large segment of leftish voters who would have voted Liberal in 1997, or 2004, or even as recently as last year, that will probably vote NDP. The Liberals' inability to bring these voters back into the fold is a major cause for them staying between 25-30%, and is a major aspect of their performance. To handwave that away as part of the three party system, doesn't do it justice.

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adma
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« Reply #445 on: September 02, 2015, 06:54:33 AM »

28% did the Liberals no good in 1984, because the PCs finished 22% ahead.  Many Liberal votes were wasted votes. In a 3-way race, 26% is only about 5-7% behind first place.  Favourable vote splits can deliver 100 seats on 26% of the vote.

But I think it wasn't just vote splits working to the Libs' favour by 2008, but a degree of "the Big Sort" as well, i.e. voting patterns becoming much more explicitly "urban vs rural".  Same reason why on a record low vote in 2007, the Saskatchewan NDP managed 20 seats vs 9 seats in 1982--and even the 2011 disaster only reduced them to matching their 1982 seat total...
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #446 on: September 02, 2015, 07:14:10 AM »

Mainstreet poll of Montreal Island:

NDP: 33
Lib: 31
BQ: 9
Cons: 8
Grns: 3
Undecided: 16

Much closer than I had expected.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #447 on: September 02, 2015, 07:42:46 AM »

Wells on Grit polling. We'll see what happens when the Phony War ends next week.

What a stupid article. First,  it puts way too much importance on the regional sub samples which are too small to believe the numbers are dead on.

More importantly, it overlooks that when Dion got 26% of the vote in 2008, it wasn't a 3 way race.  If the Liberals got 26% of the vote this time, they'd probably win 100 seats.

I'd tweet that to Paul Wells, but if I did, I understand he'd block me.  He is said to be the most thin skinned journalist in Ottawa.

You say that as if the party system simply sprung into existence from nothing. For better or worse, there's a large segment of leftish voters who would have voted Liberal in 1997, or 2004, or even as recently as last year, that will probably vote NDP. The Liberals' inability to bring these voters back into the fold is a major cause for them staying between 25-30%, and is a major aspect of their performance. To handwave that away as part of the three party system, doesn't do it justice.



I was just commenting that 26% in a three way race would likely result in the Liberals winning a lot more seats than they won in 2008 with 26% of the vote.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #448 on: September 02, 2015, 07:43:13 AM »

Itineraries.

Will BC decide the outcome?
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #449 on: September 02, 2015, 07:44:26 AM »

http://factscan.ca/

Canada's political fact-checker.
Independent. Transparent. Non-partisan.
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