Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course, even in the rural ridings of Eastern Ontario, federally Don Boudria made his riding of Glengary-Prescott-Russel  a personal fiefdom for many years, but more recently his Liberal successors have been unable to resist the more general regional trends.

That area was a Liberal stronghold long before that bizarre moustachioed rat creature walked on stage.

[adma]

Of course, even in the rural ridings of Eastern Ontario, federally Don Boudria made his riding of Glengary-Prescott-Russel  a personal fiefdom for many years, but more recently his Liberal successors have been unable to resist the more general regional trends.

That area was a Liberal stronghold long before that bizarre moustachioed rat creature walked on stage.

And it's still Liberal provincially under Grant Crack (who went from a squeaker in 2011 to a solid win in 2014)

[Hatman 🍁]

And it may just be a squeaker again.

It's a northern riding so, I guess the Tory strategists think his base will turn out for him no matter what. Not that I think it will matter if they run him or some staffer, but I can see the logic.

It would be ridiculous though if Penashue's local base and an NDP surge in Atlantic Canada result in him squeaking in

That could just happen, actually. NDP wins West Labrador, Penashue wins the north, and the Liberals win the south.

Who does everyone think will win?

Well, considering the polls show a 3-way tie...

[Holmes]

If the election were to be held tomorrow, I would say the NDP wins a minority.

[adma]

That could just happen, actually. NDP wins West Labrador, Penashue wins the north, and the Liberals win the south.

Depends what you mean by "the north", i.e. if it's strictly Penashue's FN base, it's not enough.  And under the circumstance, Happy Valley/Goose Bay's more akin to West Labrador, albeit less heavily NDPish...

[RogueBeaver]

Latest EKOS: 30.2 (-3.4) / 29.5 (+1.4) / 27.7 (+1).

[RogueBeaver]

Graves' analysis.

[DL]

One thing to keep in mind is that during this first month of the campaign, both the Conservatives and the Liberals have dumped a sh**t load of money on advertising while the NDP has spent little or nothing. I have the radio on all day and watch news shows and have been inundated with Tory attack ads against Trudeau and Liberal ads where trudeau claims he is ready...i have only occasionally seen the NDP ad that attacks all the Tory scandals.

I suspect that the Liberals have gambled on blowing a big chunk of their research budget in August desperately trying to get back into the game...it has worked for them to a point, but every bit of ammunition you use in August represents ammunition you cannot use in late September and October when it matters the most! The Conservatives have enough money to flood us with ads every step of the way.

I think the NDP is taking a gamble on "going dark" for the first half of the campaign - knowing this would erode their numbers in the short term and after Labour day they will start saturating the airwaves with their ads...interesting to see how all that pans out

[DC Al Fine]

I think those are both viable strategies given the two parties' respective situations. The Liberals need to get back into the game early and prove they are still a viable force. The NDP is still somewhat of an upstart party, which means they will probably face stiff headwinds towards the end of the race (a candidate will say something dumb, voters will have 2nd thoughts about voting NDP for the first time etc.), so it makes sense for them to keep some dry powder till the end.

[DC Al Fine]

Oh FTR, I haven't seen a single non-Tory in Nova Scotia. Not one lone NDP or Liberal ad has crossed my TV screen yet.

[RogueBeaver]

Léger: 31/30/28, Grits lead 37/28/27 in ON and Dippers 46/20/18/13 here.

[DC Al Fine]

Tom Mulcair promises CPP, QPP expansions

I vastly prefer expanding CPP to the Ontario Liberals' *just asking for mismanagement* plan, but I doubt this will come to fruition.

Tom Mulcair and the NDP are becoming my sensible second choice and the Liberals are becoming my ridiculous lefties... What is the world coming to? I miss Paul Martin.

[Hatman 🍁]

You mean the same Paul Martin who seems to think Mulcair is the second coming of Ronald Reagan? OK

[DC Al Fine]

You mean the same Paul Martin who seems to think Mulcair is the second coming of Ronald Reagan? OK

Paul Martin the finance minister, not Paul Martin the Liberal hack. As other Liberal hacks like to remind me, he was the most fiscally conservative finance minsiter/PM EVAH!!!

[DL]

Now a new Forum poll is out: NDP 36%, Liberals 32% and CPC 24%

I find it impossible to believe their Ontario number where they have Conservative support at just 21%

[DC Al Fine]

Now a new Forum poll is out: NDP 36%, Liberals 32% and CPC 24%

I find it impossible to believe their Ontario number where they have Conservative support at just 21%

Yet again, lol Forum.

[DL]

You know, people make fun of Forum a lot and some of it is justified...I usually have less of a problem with their actual numbers than I do with their ex-cathedra spin on their own findings. But apart from that Brandon-Souris by election their record is not bad at all.

Their final polls were quite close to the final result in the 2011 federal election, both the 2011 and 2014 Ontario elections, the Toronto mayoralty last year and other provincial elections in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Quebec and Alberta

All of that being said I still refuse to believe that the CPC is as low as 21% in Ontario

[Hatman 🍁]

Their problem lies mostly in their riding polls. Sure they get many right, but they get so many wrong too. And it's more than just TAKE RIDING POLLS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT that Al keeps reminding us, it's they don't even try to get them right. I mean, polling just on a Sunday (of all days) and reporting that as an accurate representation of the electorate? Weighting people 5% of respondents  in a poll up to 50% of the total? I mean, does anyone over there even know what they're doing? 

[136or142]

Manitoba NDP MLA Erin Selby confirms she will resign her seat to run federally in St Boniface-St Vital.

The initial reaction from at least one political scientist is that this would hurt Liberal Dan Vandal who is likely the front runner for this riding, but I'm not so sure.  In addition to being controversial among New Democrats for her having been a member of the Gang of Five, she was also regarded by many Manitobans as a completely incompetent Health Minister.

My guess right now is that she will actually do less well than a no name New Democrat would have done.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/09/04/former-manitoba-health-minister-running-for-federal-ndp-seat_n_8088762.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Forum are pretty terrible, but is there actually a Canadian polling firm (these days) that isn't?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I would have thought Wynne putting all her eggs in the Trudeau basket would have hurt the Grits in Ontario...

[DC Al Fine]

Forum are pretty terrible, but is there actually a Canadian polling firm (these days) that isn't?

It's not that they are terrible, rater, they are more terrible than everyone else.

You know, people make fun of Forum a lot and some of it is justified...I usually have less of a problem with their actual numbers than I do with their ex-cathedra spin on their own findings. But apart from that Brandon-Souris by election their record is not bad at all.

Their final polls were quite close to the final result in the 2011 federal election, both the 2011 and 2014 Ontario elections, the Toronto mayoralty last year and other provincial elections in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Quebec and Alberta

All of that being said I still refuse to believe that the CPC is as low as 21% in Ontario

Well, they'll either look like geniuses or dummies come election day if they keep polling the Tories five points lower than everyone else. They're still the only poster who have shown any statistically significant movement this campaign, so my vote is on dummies.

[RogueBeaver]

Like Ontario last year when Ipsos had a nonexistent Tory lead for the entire writ campaign. At least non-Angus pollsters have stopped using LV.

[DL]

Polling companies are only judged on their final election eve poll...no one cares what they said over the course of the campaign since there is no way to ever prove who was right and who was wrong.

Nanos likes to boast about being the most "accurate" in the 06 and 08 elections...but if you look at his daily tracking his numbers were all over the place - one day he'd have the liberals leading on the Prairies, another day he'd have the Tories leading in Quebec etc...but none of that matters. Incidentally Nanos did some polling in the Toronto mayoralty and wildly underestimate Ford and over-estiumated Tory...I think that's because live-interviewer polls tended to have a "social desirability bias" where many people did not want to admit to a real person that they were voting for Ford.

[adma]

I would have thought Wynne putting all her eggs in the Trudeau basket would have hurt the Grits in Ontario...

Not in her North Toronto home turf, at least.  In fact, strolling through the North Toronto part of Eglinton-Lawrence late afternoon yesterday, I saw *tons* of Marco Mendicino Liberal signs and only 3 or 4 Joe Olivers--which doesn't bode well for Oliver, given it's the kind of upper-middle-class zone where I'd expect something closer to parity in front-yard presence.  (Though it might have been different further west where it's more Jewish, or further N/S where it's more upper than upper-middle.)

Oh, and only one Thomson NDP sign, way down on Avenue Rd near Eglinton.