Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[2952-0-0]

[Hash]

This Baird thing is hilarious.

Apparently, in Canadian politics, 'joining the private sector' = 'I am dying' or 'I am becoming a professional pederast'.

[Krago]

Here is the weekly poll update:

Election (May 2, 2011) / EKOS (Sep 2-8) / Ipsos (Sep 4-8) / Innovative (Sep 4-10) / Forum (Sep 9-10) / Nanos (Sep 10-12)

Canada	2011	EKOS	Ipsos	Innovative	Forum	Nanos
Cons	39.6	31.8	29	28	28	31.7
NDP	30.6	29.6	34	31	36	30.8
Lib	18.9	26.9	30	30	29	30.5
BQ	6.1	4.6	3	4	3	2.5
Green	3.9	5.9	3	6	3	4.1

Atlantic	2011	EKOS	Ipsos	Innovative	Forum	Nanos
Cons	37.9	20.7	8	24	18	20.4
NDP	29.5	27.9	29	29	26	30.6
Lib	29.3	44.1	57	39	53	43.8
Green	3.0	5.7	6	6	2	4.9

Quebec	2011	EKOS	Ipsos	Innovative	Forum	Nanos
Cons	16.5	18.9	15	15	22	16.5
NDP	42.9	39.2	47	41	45	45.4
Lib	14.2	18.8	20	21	21	25.1
BQ	23.4	19.0	14	17	10	9.9
Green	2.1	3.1	4	6	2	2.6

Ontario	2011	EKOS	Ipsos	Innovative	Forum	Nanos
Cons	44.4	36.9	35	28	31	35.9
NDP	25.6	23.3	28	26	34	24.5
Lib	25.3	32.6	36	39	31	35.5
Green	3.8	6.1	0	6	4	3.9

Prairies	2011	EKOS	Ipsos	Innovative	Forum	Nanos
Cons	62.0					51.0
NDP	21.7					18.1
Lib	10.7					27.3
Green	4.4					2.7

Man/Sask	2011	EKOS	Ipsos	Innovative	Forum	Nanos
Cons	54.9		46	35	35
NDP	28.9		21	28	34
Lib	12.7		25	31	27
Green	3.1		6	6	2

Manitoba	2011	EKOS	Ipsos	Innovative	Forum	Nanos
Cons	53.5	30.2
NDP	25.8	26.6
Lib	16.6	32.7
Green	3.6	9.2

Sask.	2011	EKOS	Ipsos	Innovative	Forum	Nanos
Cons	56.3	45.2
NDP	32.3	30.2
Lib	8.5	19.4
Green	2.6	3.1

Alberta	2011	EKOS	Ipsos	Innovative	Forum	Nanos
Cons	66.8	55.6	45	48	43
NDP	16.8	22.2	35	24	28
Lib	9.3	16.6	17	23	25
Green	5.2	3.9	3	3	2

B.C.	2011	EKOS	Ipsos	Innovative	Forum	Nanos
Cons	45.6	25.2	28	31	28	29.6
NDP	32.5	37.6	37	36	37	37.1
Lib	13.4	25.0	31	22	27	24.5
Green	7.7	11.6	4	11	7	8.5

Updated with the Innovative Research poll.

[ottermax]

Does anyone think there will be a shy Tory effect in Canada? Or maybe a lower NDP turnout than the polls suggest due to unfamiliarity with the party?

I only ask because on my flight to Toronto today the person from London I was talking to didn't even know who Mulcair or the NDP were - which might mean that a significant chunk of the electorate still isn't used to the idea of the NDP as the opposition even after 4 years...

[Hatman 🍁]

There are people who don't follow politics. News at 11.

[Krago]

When I included the Innovative Research poll in the poll update, it went over the Forum character limit.  Here are the links to the pdf files:

Election (May 2, 2011) / EKOS (Sep 2-8) / Ipsos (Sep 4-8) / Innovative (Sep 4-10) / Forum (Sep 9-10) / Nanos (Sep 10-12)
 

[Krago]

New Abacus poll: NDP 31 Lib 29 Cons 29 Grn 6 BQ 4

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Does anyone think there will be a shy Tory effect in Canada? Or maybe a lower NDP turnout than the polls suggest due to unfamiliarity with the party?

I only ask because on my flight to Toronto today the person from London I was talking to didn't even know who Mulcair or the NDP were - which might mean that a significant chunk of the electorate still isn't used to the idea of the NDP as the opposition even after 4 years...

I'm guessing he did know who Justin was?

[jaichind]

Given that for now it seems to be a 3 way tie and it seems the CPC has an advantage in terms of votes-to-seats conversion, it would be funny if the election ends up with CPC coming in a close third in terms of votes but ends up being the largest party in terms of seats.

Maybe the stronger likelihood at this rate is for Libs being #1 in votes but #3 in seats (shades of Cleggmania prognostications in the UK in 2010)

The 308.com now cast projection

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

Has exactly the scenario I described: CPC last in terms of vote share but first in terms of seats.

[DL]

In terms of the raw vote count - the NDP may get a bit of a bump nationally for the simple reason that the turnout in Quebec tends to be higher than in the rest of Canada

[Vosem]

At the moment, Eric Grenier is projecting Churchill, the riding covering northern Manitoba, to be a Liberal gain from the NDP, 41-38. The riding has been held by the NDP continuously since 1979, excluding the Liberal wave in 1993 and a split in the NDP vote in 2006 (when the riding also went Liberal). Indeed in 2011, the Liberals came in third to the NDP and Conservatives, 51-26-20. Is this an unreasonable result calculated by universal swing, or is the Manitoba provincial NDP government really so unpopular that the NDP is at risk of losing Churchill?

[Hatman 🍁]

Jesus, you guys, stop paying attention to that guy.

[Vosem]

Jesus, you guys, stop paying attention to that guy.

What other places are there to go that have detailed riding-by-riding projections? As long as Grenier has a monopoly on that, he'll be able to attract attention.

(Also, I can take your reply to mean that Niki Ashton isn't in much danger?)

[RogueBeaver]

Wilfrid Laurier University's Barry Kay (LISPOP) and Bryan Breguet at 2closetocall also do seat projections, though only Breguet and Grenier do individual seats. Breguet has Ashton safe. Grenier has greater prominence in English Canada though.

Interesting VICE on Avalon. Wonder how well Andrews will do. That and St. John's South-Mount Pearl are the competitive NL seats.

[DC Al Fine]

At the moment, Eric Grenier is projecting Churchill, the riding covering northern Manitoba, to be a Liberal gain from the NDP, 41-38. The riding has been held by the NDP continuously since 1979, excluding the Liberal wave in 1993 and a split in the NDP vote in 2006 (when the riding also went Liberal). Indeed in 2011, the Liberals came in third to the NDP and Conservatives, 51-26-20. Is this an unreasonable result calculated by universal swing, or is the Manitoba provincial NDP government really so unpopular that the NDP is at risk of losing Churchill?

Grenier's model does a poor job of of accurately mapping out large swings. The Liberals have gone from ~10% to ~30%. His model over projects the swing onto the few remaining areas where the Liberals had support in 2011 (Churchill, Ralph Goodale's riding, the wealthier bits of Winnipeg), and under projects it every where else.

Here's an example: The Liberals got roughly the same vote share in the Prairies in 2004 that they are polling now. Grenier projects the Liberals to get roughly 60% of the vote in Winnipeg South, Winnipeg South Centre, and Saint Boniface, but in 2004 they score roughly 45-50%. Conversely, the Liberals did better in 2004 in the rural Prairies than Grenier is projecting them to.

Getting back to your original question, it's not out of the question that the Liberals could pick up Churchill if they surged at the end of the campaign, but they aren't going to pick it up as things currently stand.

[the506]

Wilfrid Laurier University's Barry Kay (LISPOP) and Bryan Breguet at 2closetocall also do seat projections, though only Breguet and Grenier do individual seats. Breguet has Ashton safe. Grenier has greater prominence in English Canada though.

I'm doing something too, and I have Ashton relatively safe. Keep in mind this is the first time I'm doing something like this, so I'm still learning the ropes, but I hope the numbers make sense.

http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/projection.php

[Hatman 🍁]

Our old friend Teddy is also doing projections and of course there is also electionprediction.org

Wilfrid Laurier University's Barry Kay (LISPOP) and Bryan Breguet at 2closetocall also do seat projections, though only Breguet and Grenier do individual seats. Breguet has Ashton safe. Grenier has greater prominence in English Canada though.

I'm doing something too, and I have Ashton relatively safe. Keep in mind this is the first time I'm doing something like this, so I'm still learning the ropes, but I hope the numbers make sense.

http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/projection.php

Your projections are pretty sound, but you've over inflated Liberal support in Ottawa. The Liberals are running a star candidate in Kanata-Carleton, but they've done that before to no avail. It's a fairly safe Conservative seat. Also, you have the Liberals at 61% in Ottawa South, which would be their strongest result since 1993.

[adma]

What other places are there to go that have detailed riding-by-riding projections? As long as Grenier has a monopoly on that, he'll be able to attract attention.

Look--you have to regard Grenier as the psephological equivalent of the talking GPS girl.  Giving directions from the "data available", but no substitute for the ability to navigate oneself and get one's feel for the lay of the land.

[Hatman 🍁]

What other places are there to go that have detailed riding-by-riding projections? As long as Grenier has a monopoly on that, he'll be able to attract attention.

Look--you have to regard Grenier as the psephological equivalent of the talking GPS girl.  Giving directions from the "data available", but no substitute for the ability to navigate oneself and get one's feel for the lay of the land.

An excellent analogy.

[DC Al Fine]

What other places are there to go that have detailed riding-by-riding projections? As long as Grenier has a monopoly on that, he'll be able to attract attention.

Look--you have to regard Grenier as the psephological equivalent of the talking GPS girl.  Giving directions from the "data available", but no substitute for the ability to navigate oneself and get one's feel for the lay of the land.

An excellent analogy.

I've been reading him less lately. His comments section has gone to pot during the campaign. I guess its to be expected, but there's only so many comments about Harper pulling a Campbell '93/Mulroney '84 you can read without going crazy.

[Vosem]

What other places are there to go that have detailed riding-by-riding projections? As long as Grenier has a monopoly on that, he'll be able to attract attention.

Look--you have to regard Grenier as the psephological equivalent of the talking GPS girl.  Giving directions from the "data available", but no substitute for the ability to navigate oneself and get one's feel for the lay of the land.

An excellent analogy.

Well, I understand that Grenier's projections are based on universal swing within provinces, and therefore do not account for regional differences within provinces. In a lot of cases I can see why for myself (for instance, in the absence of a star Liberal candidate in Avignon the riding seems likely to at least tilt NDP; he has the Liberal improvement in Quebec numbers, which seems mostly Montreal-based, win them this seat at the other end of the province), but with Churchill, it was unclear to me whether the Liberals actually had a shot or if he was just grossly overdoing the universal swing.

[DL]

Churchill is a classic example of a seat where trying to apply a provincial swing model is useless. Its a totally rural riding where 60% of the electorate are First nations living in reserves. This is the sort of riding where voting is almost totally personality-based and totally oblivious to national swings...if Niki Ashton and her father have strong ties with elders in certain reserves she can win some polls on reserves 450 votes to 2 - and these people are not watching the At Issue panel on CBC and leaders debates etc...

Crude seat projection models like Grenier's aren't bad at the aggregate level but when it comes to trying to predict individual ridings - forget it.

[136or142]

If Nikki Ashton loses in Churchill,  I'll eat Paddy Ashdown's hat.

[cp]

Because it had been almost a week since a Tory candidate had to be let go ...

[2952-0-0]

This Baird thing is hilarious.

Apparently, in Canadian politics, 'joining the private sector' = 'I am dying' or 'I am becoming a professional pederast'.

As promised, Anonymous did release some information. See for yourself: https://twitter.com/OpAnonDown

Normally, claims made anonymously on Twitter without concrete proof aren't worth examining. But the list of followers includes so many senior figures from all of Canada's major news outlets that something concrete must exist.