Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Hash]

Please use this thread for the campaign. The other would get too unwieldy.

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair focused on attacking Harper's econ record, implicitly contrasting his background with Trudeau. Duceppe attacking Harper on values/environment. Trudeau speaking in Vancouver at 1 ET.

Nanos: 31/30/29.

[Hash]

Elizabeth May is always so refreshingly weird and insane.

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau: Grit plan is awesome, BC is awesome, NDP wrong to hike corporate instead of tax on wealthy, trade is good & supply management too. "Unlike the others, I tend to take a lot of questions."

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

When are the deadlines for candidates to file for election?

[MaxQue]

When are the deadlines for candidates to file for election?

Should be September 28th.

[politicallefty]

Does anyone think it's possible that the NDP will try to draw from the now-plentiful NDP MLAs in Alberta? I honestly don't know if it's common for a federal party in Canada to nominate provincial legislators. Admittedly, it'd probably be easier if the Alberta NDP Government was older, but my question still stands. (I'm assuming there are no issues with an MLA serving as such while running federally.) There seem to be quite a few seats in Alberta that are ripe for the picking.

[DC Al Fine]

Does anyone think it's possible that the NDP will try to draw from the now-plentiful NDP MLAs in Alberta? I honestly don't know if it's common for a federal party in Canada to nominate provincial legislators. Admittedly, it'd probably be easier if the Alberta NDP Government was older, but my question still stands. (I'm assuming there are no issues with an MLA serving as such while running federally.) There seem to be quite a few seats in Alberta that are ripe for the picking.

Not impossible, but it would be considered pretty bad form to jump for another office 4 months after getting elected. Plus the dynamics are different federally, where the right is split instead of the left. That said, I could see an NDP MLA make a run.

[DC Al Fine]

For the heck of it, here are the fringe party nominations thus far according to Pundits Guide.

Libertarian: 82
Christian Heritage: 10
Forces et Democratie: 10
Pirate: 6

[SATW]

#StandWithHarper

[MaxQue]

Mulcair focused on attacking Harper's econ record, implicitly contrasting his background with Trudeau. Duceppe attacking Harper on values/environment. Trudeau speaking in Vancouver at 1 ET.

Nanos: 31/30/29.

As usual, Nik Nanos is pushing his friend Justin.

We talk of a "pollster" who put the Liberals first long after real pollsters had them in 3rd place.

[Vosem]

Makhmud, podzhigay!

[RogueBeaver]

Auger isn't impressed by anyone's kickoff.

Recap of Harper's speech tonight.

Justin seeks to prove detractors wrong.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

This seems like a really long campaign for a parliamentary system.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Honestly, I would be very shocked if by the time votes are counted, the NDP is not on top by a decent margin or in a majority government. Stephen Harper is just too unpopular to soak up much additional support (if he has any room to grow at all), and center-left/anti-Harper vote will coalesce around the NDP in the final weeks once it becomes clear that the Liberals just don't have the chops to take down Harper, and even if they did they're not different enough from Harper to enact the substantive change Canadians are looking for (especially after all that C-51 nonsense). The NDP is no longer that little lefty third party floating around on the edges, it's proven it could be a serious party of government between it's surge in 2011, it's performance in opposition, and finally with it's victory in conservative Alberta, so many Canadians who were fearful of leaving the Liberals because of their larger experience may now very well feel ready to defect to the NDP.

Though of course, if the CPC shovels mountains of money into this and the others can't even come close to keeping pace, then the calculus could easily change.

[Barnes]

This seems like a really long campaign for a parliamentary system.

It certainly is.  There was already a de facto campaign, of course, but it could be mostly ignored by the majority of the public, as I think this campaign will be until late September.

[Хahar 🤔]

Does anyone think it's possible that the NDP will try to draw from the now-plentiful NDP MLAs in Alberta? I honestly don't know if it's common for a federal party in Canada to nominate provincial legislators. Admittedly, it'd probably be easier if the Alberta NDP Government was older, but my question still stands. (I'm assuming there are no issues with an MLA serving as such while running federally.) There seem to be quite a few seats in Alberta that are ripe for the picking.

This won't happen. It's much, much rarer for politicians to move from provincial to federal politics in Canada than it is to move from state to federal politics in America, and when they do seek election to the House of Commons provincial legislators are expected to resign their provincial seats as soon as the campaign begins. That wouldn't be good just months after the election.

[adma]

It's more accurate to say that Notley's election has "raised the game" for prospective federal NDP candidates, i.e. we're seeing serious candidates and nomination races in places which in the past have been barely more than "token-name-on-the-ballot" situations.  Which renders the MLA-making-the-jump gambit redundant.

[DC Al Fine]

Another example. The NDP candidate for Calgary Confederation stepped down upon her election to the legislature.

[RogueBeaver]

Comprehensive and interesting IRG poll. 34/29/25 topline. Forum has 39/28/25.

[cp]

And so it begins ...

Interesting bit by the CBC on the respective campaign launches by the major leaders. Harper rally "sombre", Trudeau looking "liberated by election call", Mulcair "in a straight jacket," or more generously, "scripted".

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What are the main target seats for the NDP, Liberals, Bloc and Greens? (I'm guessing the Tories have largely maxed out their seats.)

[Boston Bread]

308 has a list of Green and Bloc target seats:
http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/03/the-quest-for-official-party-status.html

That was done when the NDP was much weaker, though. Move some NDP-held target seats away and both the Greens and Bloc have very limited options.

[Boston Bread]

My seat projection using the Forum poll.

The only thing preventing an NDP majority is 1) vote inefficiency in Ontario 2) losses in Quebec, mostly to the Libs but a few to the CPC

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Man, Tories are getting obliterated in the Atlantic under your model. Not doing too fine in BC either...

Who is the other in Monitoba? speaker?