Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)
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  Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)
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Author Topic: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)  (Read 233056 times)
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #25 on: August 03, 2015, 11:05:19 AM »
« edited: August 03, 2015, 11:09:49 AM by Хahar »

Man, Tories are getting obliterated in the Atlantic under your model. Not doing too fine in BC either...

Who is the other in Monitoba? speaker?

No, in Canada the Speaker runs in a normal contested partisan election. In 1984 the sitting Speaker (Lloyd Francis) actually lost his seat in Ottawa West.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #26 on: August 03, 2015, 11:15:16 AM »

If the NDP forms the next government, how likely is it that they would actually institute proportional representation?  Also, will it be much of a campaign theme?
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #27 on: August 03, 2015, 11:33:23 AM »

The indy is Inky Mark, a former Reform/Alliance MP who is running as an independent. Other is polling enough in MB/SK to make him narrowly lead in Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa in a three way race between the CPC and NDP candidates.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #28 on: August 03, 2015, 11:52:13 AM »

The indy is Inky Mark, a former Reform/Alliance MP who is running as an independent. Other is polling enough in MB/SK to make him narrowly lead in Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa in a three way race between the CPC and NDP candidates.

Inky Mark has always been somewhat unusual; he defected to the Rebel Alliance back when Stockwell Day was leader, but rather than returning to Reform he instead went and joined the PCs, in whose caucus he remained until the merger. Now apparently he is a member of the Green Party. (!!!)
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ottermax
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« Reply #29 on: August 03, 2015, 01:16:54 PM »

Are you all watching the debate on Thursday? Why is the Republican debate at the same time?!?
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #30 on: August 03, 2015, 02:15:07 PM »

(I'm guessing the Tories have largely maxed out their seats.)

The Tories really, really think they can win Mount Royal because...ISRAEL!
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MaxQue
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« Reply #31 on: August 03, 2015, 02:25:11 PM »

(I'm guessing the Tories have largely maxed out their seats.)

The Tories really, really think they can win Mount Royal because...ISRAEL!

To be fair to them, it's more than Irwin Cotler retires. He is hugely respected in the Anglophone and Jewish communities in Montréal and across party lines. I think than if he had retired in 2011, it would be a Conservative seat right now.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #32 on: August 03, 2015, 02:56:40 PM »

It's ironic that although the NDP is touching majority status, only the third place party is fully national in scope.

FWIW, my mother who is (was?) a member of the CPC and actually campaigned in previous elections, is voting Liberal this time because she is tired of Harper. She still thinks the NDP are closet commies who will nationalize all lemonade stands and send welfare cheques like pizza coupons, though.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #33 on: August 03, 2015, 03:08:44 PM »

Charlottetown is pretty close to going NDP in my model. Libs lead by 5. If it went NDP then the NDP will have a seat in every province.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #34 on: August 03, 2015, 03:14:21 PM »

I just realized Justin's slogan is the same as Melanie Joly's. Beyond pathetic.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #35 on: August 03, 2015, 03:20:00 PM »

It's ironic that although the NDP is touching majority status, only the third place party is fully national in scope.

I wouldn't call the Atlantic, Vancouver and Toronto party "fully national". They are dead in water in most of the Prairies and rural Quebec.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #36 on: August 03, 2015, 03:23:25 PM »

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9c-mKvEY0qc

What a peculiar attack ad.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #37 on: August 03, 2015, 03:31:47 PM »

The more I think of it the more I believe Mulcair is more similar to Harper than he wants to admit. Both are assholes and proud of the title. Both are not very friendly with the media, and both prefer to keep their teams under control.

Update on Anonymous: They hacked Donald Trump's homepage and replaced it with a tribute to Jon Stewart, and invited Joe Oliver to cover the election. Enough journalists from different mainstream media outlets are now following the Twitter feed, giving much more respectability to the John Baird allegations. We'll see where that goes.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #38 on: August 03, 2015, 03:44:18 PM »

In other news, oil prices has started crashing down again and is now under 50$.

Bad for Alberta and for job numbers.
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DL
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« Reply #39 on: August 03, 2015, 08:28:46 PM »

(I'm guessing the Tories have largely maxed out their seats.)

The Tories really, really think they can win Mount Royal because...ISRAEL!

To be fair to them, it's more than Irwin Cotler retires. He is hugely respected in the Anglophone and Jewish communities in Montréal and across party lines. I think than if he had retired in 2011, it would be a Conservative seat right now.

For all the hype about Mount Royal being a "Jewish riding"...70% of the riding is NOT Jewish and in Montreal outside of rightwing elements of the Jewish community, Conservative support is literally in low single digits.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #40 on: August 03, 2015, 08:45:41 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2015, 09:43:14 PM by King of Kensington »

Yeah I'm not sure what the CPC path to victory would be.  I think it would require a big increase in the NDP vote which doesn't look likely (don't they have a weaker candidate than last time?)  Also I suspect the current mayor of CSL must have significant support there.  
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MaxQue
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« Reply #41 on: August 03, 2015, 10:13:28 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2015, 10:18:40 PM by MaxQue »

Yeah I'm not sure what the CPC path to victory would be.  I think it would require a big increase in the NDP vote which doesn't look likely (don't they have a weaker candidate than last time?)  Also I suspect the current mayor of CSL must have significant support there.  

The Conservative candidate is better, I would say. In 2011, they had the editor of an hateful suburban Anglophone newspaper, now they have the former leader of Equality Party and a former CSL mayor.

I would also suspect they have consequeent support in very wealthy and recluse Town of Mount Royal (I mean, they build a fence around the town to be sure than poor people from near neighbourhoods don't wander in).

EDIT: Nevermind, TMR is terrible for Conservatives. Their votes was coming from the independent towns west of Côte-des-Neiges (which was split between Liberals and NDP).
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muon2
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« Reply #42 on: August 03, 2015, 11:40:49 PM »

Elizabeth May is always so refreshingly weird and insane.

... and very good about sprinting out of the blocks. I just took a day trip to Victoria today, and upon coming off the ferry in Swartz Bay there was a regular progression of May signs along BC-17.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #43 on: August 04, 2015, 03:56:45 AM »

Are you all watching the debate on Thursday? Why is the Republican debate at the same time?!?

Lack of audience overlap?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #44 on: August 04, 2015, 05:10:31 AM »

Itineraries.

Good overview from Radwanski of this province.

Major party leaders confirm their Sept. 17 Globe debate attendance.

Poll tracker: still a dead Tory-Dipper heat.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #45 on: August 04, 2015, 08:03:51 AM »

8 of the 10 members of  the Liberal executive of Gaspésie--îles-de-la-Madeleine resigned and endorsed the NDP incumbent, due to a lack of transparency and being imposed a candidate they don't like.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-canada-2015/2015/08/04/001-association-liberale-federale-gaspesie-iles-demission-membres-appui-npd.shtml?isAutoPlay=1
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #46 on: August 04, 2015, 12:21:27 PM »

8 of the 10 members of  the Liberal executive of Gaspésie--îles-de-la-Madeleine resigned and endorsed the NDP incumbent, due to a lack of transparency and being imposed a candidate they don't like.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-canada-2015/2015/08/04/001-association-liberale-federale-gaspesie-iles-demission-membres-appui-npd.shtml?isAutoPlay=1

It should be noted that this seat is a Bloc notional.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #47 on: August 04, 2015, 12:44:29 PM »

8 of the 10 members of  the Liberal executive of Gaspésie--îles-de-la-Madeleine resigned and endorsed the NDP incumbent, due to a lack of transparency and being imposed a candidate they don't like.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-canada-2015/2015/08/04/001-association-liberale-federale-gaspesie-iles-demission-membres-appui-npd.shtml?isAutoPlay=1

It should be noted that this seat is a Bloc notional.

But none of it is currently represented by a Bloc MP, it got parts of Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia, which was won by Bloc, but its MP created the "Strenght in Democracy" party.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #48 on: August 04, 2015, 03:32:40 PM »

What is Strength in Democracy? I only first heard of them today when they were mentioned in an article on the BBC I read.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #49 on: August 04, 2015, 03:52:10 PM »

What is Strength in Democracy? I only first heard of them today when they were mentioned in an article on the BBC I read.

A party created by an MP who lost in the Bloc leadership race and an NDP MP which was likely to be "primaried" out (losing the NDP investiture meeting to someone else).

They were originally for Quebec independence, but they now seems to stand for strong autonomy for all provinces.
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