Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[adma]

Yeah "most" is not correct.  About half of the suburban Lower Mainland is winnable for the NDP, the other half isn't.  Still a lot higher than the 905 where winning half a dozen seats would be an extraordinary victory for the NDP. 

But it depends on whether, or by how much, the NDP will or should be the only non-Con game in town in the 905--Justin may be waning, but he's not quite in the "Clegg zone" yet...

[Holmes]

The NDP will under perform in Northern Ontario

I'll take you up on that bet.

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair noncommittal on Munk and Globe debates.

[King of Kensington]

I agree with this list but I would add Vancouver Granville as another seat that I think is NDP winnable

Most of the voters in Granville, I believe, are in the provincial riding of Vancouver-Fairview which was one of the few NDP pickups in the last provincial election.  So although it looks like more of a "naturally" Liberal riding, the NDP can win it if they are able to capture the small-"l" liberal vote.   Mira Oreck sounds like a good fit for the riding.

[King of Kensington]

But it depends on whether, or by how much, the NDP will or should be the only non-Con game in town in the 905--Justin may be waning, but he's not quite in the "Clegg zone" yet...

There are some seats the Liberals can pick up in 905 - maybe Richmond Hill, Ajax, some seats in Mississauga.  But I think they'll be winning scraps, not swaths.  NDP almost certainly aren't going to win any seats in York or Halton regions even in a majority government.  So it seems highly unlikely that the Conservatives aren't going to be the largest party in 905.  

[Boston Bread]

Markham-Thornhill looks decent for the NDP in a majority scenario. Can't think of any other Halton/York NDP pickups, though.

[RogueBeaver]

So one of the Gaspesie PLC defectors is a Peq. Maybe HQ didn't know, judging from Butts' Twitter feed.

Maclean's overview of our terrain. No surprises.

[adma]

But it depends on whether, or by how much, the NDP will or should be the only non-Con game in town in the 905--Justin may be waning, but he's not quite in the "Clegg zone" yet...

There are some seats the Liberals can pick up in 905 - maybe Richmond Hill, Ajax, some seats in Mississauga.  But I think they'll be winning scraps, not swaths.  NDP almost certainly aren't going to win any seats in York or Halton regions even in a majority government.  So it seems highly unlikely that the Conservatives aren't going to be the largest party in 905.  

Mathematically "largest", or dominatingly "largest"?  Or does it matter, really?  In the end, even with more seats, York + Halton aren't *that* dominating a factor in the broader Canadian picture.  It'd be like bellyaching over Bucks or Surrey in terms of the Blair-era UK.

The trouble I find with these predictions of Con-dominance in the 905 is that (a) they underestimate the degree of loathing t/w the Cons out there, particularly if the Cons wind up shooting themselves in the foot through campaign hubris and heavy-handedness, and (b) they're all too often filtered through the "only the New Democrats can defeat the Conservatives" prism as some kind of irreversable new electoral gospel.  Well, look, if the latter's truly the case and the Justin Liberals are truly headed to some kind of Joe Clark PC 2000 oblivion, I can understand: within the 905, the demographics and the infrastructure just ain't there for a whole lot of NDP victories, at least not this cycle.  However, that's not the same as acceptance of the elected status quo, either.

For such reasons, I'm feeling *very* ambivalent about the NDP tit-for-tat parroting the old Liberal "only x can defeat y" approach because, essentially, it sets up this kind of trap which leaves left-partisans wondering "oh, geeze, what's wrong with Ontario?"  Look: Ontario is a moderate province by nature, and a sharp Western Canada-style binary status quo doesn't befit it; and there's a reason why it saw near-total Liberal sweeps under Chretien, or why the provincial Grits have swept the 905 ever since 2003.  And the way I see it, at least in certain sorts of seats, that kind of continued Liberal viability can actually compliment, rather than detract from, the NDP's goals t/w power.

So, I'm still counting the Justin Grits as a sleeper factor rather than as Dead Party Walking--even if it's more by accident of Cons dropping gift seats into their lap...

[King of Kensington]

Mathematically "largest", or dominatingly "largest"?  Or does it matter, really?  In the end, even with more seats, York + Halton aren't *that* dominating a factor in the broader Canadian picture.  It'd be like bellyaching over Bucks or Surrey in terms of the Blair-era UK.

The Bucks/Surrey in '97 analogy is a good one.  The NDP can win a majority without York and Halton and even with just Brampton and Oshawa in the 905.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree that the Liberals prying off a lot of Conservative-held no hope seats would be beneficial from an NDP point of view.  But a 35/35/25 split, say, isn't likely to result in a lot of Liberal seats in Ontario. 

[RogueBeaver]

Jose Nunez-Melo expelled from the NDP for publicly criticizing the nomination process.

Great debate articles.

Behind the Dipper comeback.

[MaxQue]

Jose Nunez-Melo expelled from the NDP for publicly criticizing the nomination process.

Great debate articles.

Behind the Dipper comeback.

Well, they wanted to get rid of him. Anyways, he was grasping at every rule he found since February to not face a contested investiture, so I suspect he knew he had no local support.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, another plank of dead wood sawed off. Kudos.

[Poirot]

A MP who does nothing when the name of the new riding is changed to Vimy is a useless MP in my book.
The NDP would benefit from running candidates of national stature / star candidate when they replace an MP like that.   
 

[adma]

I agree that the Liberals prying off a lot of Conservative-held no hope seats would be beneficial from an NDP point of view.  But a 35/35/25 split, say, isn't likely to result in a lot of Liberal seats in Ontario. 

I'd press the ultra-panic button more at 40/40/20.  35/35/25 offers more of an opening for CAQ-style pickups.

[VPH]

Will the debate be up online afterwards? I have work and will miss it...

[King of Kensington]

I'd press the ultra-panic button more at 40/40/20.  35/35/25 offers more of an opening for CAQ-style pickups.

I just don't see the Liberals being the third party and the map of 905 looking like Kathleen Wynne's Ontario. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Debate fun!

[RogueBeaver]

Livestream here.

[Barnes]

Much more excited about this debate than that Republican circus here in the States.  Thank you, Canada!

[2952-0-0]

So the debate has begun. Justin looked smart, Lizzie looked goofy, Tom looked dignified, and Steve looked creepy.

[2952-0-0]

Steve didn't look at the camera when responding with an understandable argument. That's not good for him.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Justin is being very breathy.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wow, Mulcair is being super condescending to Trudeau.

Justin suddenly coming alive on Canadian federalism.

[2952-0-0]

If this was a job interview (where we instantly make first impressions which are subsequently confirmed), I'd rank as follows:

1) May: Thoughtful and stickler to the facts
2) Mulcair: Has the voice of a nice wise uncle, even if he danced around the pipeline issue
3) Harper: Seemed angry and insincere much of the time, but had some good points
4) Trudeau: A nice guy, but doesn't seem quite..well..ready

[RogueBeaver]

Basically agreed with Kinsella here.


Predictably, Den Tandt thinks Justin won. I do think he's certainly back in the game. FP major weak point.