Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)
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  Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)
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Author Topic: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)  (Read 233054 times)
cp
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« Reply #100 on: August 07, 2015, 03:26:30 AM »

Seems like it was a draw.


Elsewhere on the internet, this is delightful

#HarperANetflixShow

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🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
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« Reply #101 on: August 07, 2015, 04:32:55 AM »

IMO, nobody really won decisively. Mulcair had a commanding presence, to the extent that whenever he spoke the entire debate everything else stood still; and he seemed to own the moderate ground on pipelines (Mrs may and Mr Harper are both extremists!). However a lot of his stylings, probably picked up by an overzealous debate coach, were condescending as f-ck. that sing-song bit to Trudeau made him sound like a complete douche, and it elaborated a position the NDP are weak on (federalism).

May was armed with a battalion of info and certainly seemed the most "human"; but never rose beyond the status of an outsider looking in. Obviously she is not seeking to become PM, but a lot of the time she seemed vaguely conspiratorial.

Trudeau? Well, he seemed very rattled. Perhaps it's all the "not serious" enough jabs, but his speech was panicked and mile a minute (in strong contrast to the grandfatherly, lackadaisical Mulcair). He was flat-footed on c-51, and often seemed rather petulant in his zingers. (People are disagreeing me here) his best moment was when he channeled his father in regards to federalism.

Harper was obviously being overly defensive. I noticed he has copied the "lets be clear," phrase that Obama loves as well. The guy came across as arrogant and smug, but capable. (No news to the majority of Canadians). However, I don't think he really made a strong case for renewing his mandate.
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cp
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« Reply #102 on: August 07, 2015, 07:37:57 AM »

I picked up on that verbal tic of Harper's, too. If Trudeau or Mulcair or May had been really on their game they might have tried to use it to trip him up (i.e., "Are you able to answer a question without using the phrase 'let's be clear', Mr. Harper?")

Also, this is a good chuckle.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #103 on: August 07, 2015, 08:23:47 AM »

Conservatives got rid of two candidates in Quebec this morning.

1. Augustin Ali Kitoko, Hochelaga. He had posted pro-NDP links on his Facebook page 10 months ago.

2 Buddy Ford, Repentigny. He got prosecuted in 2011 for having a pot joint on him (he got an unconditionnal absolution).

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201508/06/01-4891001-les-conservateurs-evincent-le-candidat-de-repentigny.php (in French, sorry, found no link in English).
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MisSkeptic
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« Reply #104 on: August 07, 2015, 08:55:22 AM »

Will the debate be up online afterwards? I have work and will miss it...

I'm with him. Does anyone know where I can find the full debate online to watch.
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cp
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« Reply #105 on: August 07, 2015, 11:39:59 AM »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSf2__qpeGA
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VPH
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« Reply #106 on: August 07, 2015, 01:26:42 PM »

Conservatives got rid of two candidates in Quebec this morning.

1. Augustin Ali Kitoko, Hochelaga. He had posted pro-NDP links on his Facebook page 10 months ago.

2 Buddy Ford, Repentigny. He got prosecuted in 2011 for having a pot joint on him (he got an unconditionnal absolution).

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201508/06/01-4891001-les-conservateurs-evincent-le-candidat-de-repentigny.php (in French, sorry, found no link in English).
LOL. Gotta love the state of Conservatives in Quebec...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #107 on: August 07, 2015, 01:31:45 PM »

We have a better slate than the Grits, which isn't saying much, plus we have realistic targets in certain regions.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #108 on: August 07, 2015, 02:07:47 PM »

We have a better slate than the Grits, which isn't saying much, plus we have realistic targets in certain regions.

In my area, no. Grits have a much better slate than your party.

The president of a CLD (local development center) and the CEO of a non-profit helping local businesses to export vs. a PMO staffer and a candidate yet to be designated.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #109 on: August 07, 2015, 02:55:00 PM »
« Edited: August 07, 2015, 02:57:47 PM by Zyzz »

Why is Quebec City such an outlier compared to the rest of Quebec when it comes to supporting the Conservatives? It certainly is not due a residual english speaking population, as the area is overwhelmingly Francophone.

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #110 on: August 07, 2015, 04:32:17 PM »

Why is Quebec City such an outlier compared to the rest of Quebec when it comes to supporting the Conservatives? It certainly is not due a residual english speaking population, as the area is overwhelmingly Francophone.

Lots of free marketeers concentrated there, and a vibrant talk radio scene. As to why those things are there, perhaps RB or Hash can answer?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #111 on: August 07, 2015, 04:39:19 PM »

I'd press the ultra-panic button more at 40/40/20.  35/35/25 offers more of an opening for CAQ-style pickups.

I just don't see the Liberals being the third party and the map of 905 looking like Kathleen Wynne's Ontario. 

It's not. I just put in the Forum Ontario numbers in my model and the Liberals won the followiing outside the City of Toronto:

  • Ajax
  • Brampton West
  • Markham-Thornhill
  • Three Mississauga seats

The Liberal vote in Ontario is more concentrated relative to CAQ so the ability to make a bunch of pick ups a la CAQ @ 25% is limited and offset by NDP gains in places like Scarborough.
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VPH
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« Reply #112 on: August 07, 2015, 05:42:09 PM »
« Edited: August 07, 2015, 05:44:01 PM by vivaportugalhabs »

Why is Quebec City such an outlier compared to the rest of Quebec when it comes to supporting the Conservatives? It certainly is not due a residual english speaking population, as the area is overwhelmingly Francophone.



There was an independent libertarian leaning MP from the area known as Andre Arthur. He was a right wing radio host.

It's possible the conservatism espoused by the Ralliment Creditiste stuck around, becoming support for fedral Conservatives, the CAQ, and before, the ADQ.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #113 on: August 07, 2015, 07:18:28 PM »

Why is Quebec City such an outlier compared to the rest of Quebec when it comes to supporting the Conservatives? It certainly is not due a residual english speaking population, as the area is overwhelmingly Francophone.



There was an independent libertarian leaning MP from the area known as Andre Arthur. He was a right wing radio host.

It's possible the conservatism espoused by the Ralliment Creditiste stuck around, becoming support for fedral Conservatives, the CAQ, and before, the ADQ.

Wierdly, the home land of the Ralliement Créditiste didn't followed that way. Conservatives failed to get 10% last time in Réal Caouette's former riding (And his family was involved into municipal politics until mid 00's in the main city of that riding).
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adma
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« Reply #114 on: August 07, 2015, 07:26:39 PM »

I'd press the ultra-panic button more at 40/40/20.  35/35/25 offers more of an opening for CAQ-style pickups.

I just don't see the Liberals being the third party and the map of 905 looking like Kathleen Wynne's Ontario. 

It's not. I just put in the Forum Ontario numbers in my model and the Liberals won the followiing outside the City of Toronto:

  • Ajax
  • Brampton West
  • Markham-Thornhill
  • Three Mississauga seats

The Liberal vote in Ontario is more concentrated relative to CAQ so the ability to make a bunch of pick ups a la CAQ @ 25% is limited and offset by NDP gains in places like Scarborough.

I'm not offering that a Wynne-style 905 sweep is in the offing.  I'm just not offering that a Con version of the same is an inevitability, either--and I'm using the fact (and the underlying message) of said provincial Lib sweep to convey my point.

And in so doing, I'm looking beyond the need to rely upon "projection models"--which IMO are to psephology what the the talking GPS Girl is to road tripping, i.e. a crutch for those with no innate, creative sense of direction of their own...
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MisSkeptic
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« Reply #115 on: August 07, 2015, 07:33:41 PM »


Oh, wow! It looks so different compared to the American presidential debates. One up for Canada here. 
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #116 on: August 07, 2015, 08:11:15 PM »

Sure, a projection model certainly doesn't capture things like incumbency or big swings very well.  For example, claims that the NDP is set to lose Surrey-Newton to the Liberals strike me as ridiculous.

But I don't see the 905 swinging Liberal in particular if they're clearly the third party.

Certainly a 905 "sweep" isn't likely for the Tories.  The NDP is very likely to pick up Oshawa and Brampton East and quite likely to break further into Brampton/Malton.  Half a dozen seats or so for the Liberals seems about right, in some ridings where they were narrowly defeated last time and where the NDP isn't going to be a contender.

Peel Region could very well see all three parties represented.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #117 on: August 07, 2015, 08:28:37 PM »

McQuaig being herself.
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cp
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« Reply #118 on: August 08, 2015, 02:30:40 AM »

Sure, a projection model certainly doesn't capture things like incumbency or big swings very well.  For example, claims that the NDP is set to lose Surrey-Newton to the Liberals strike me as ridiculous.

But I don't see the 905 swinging Liberal in particular if they're clearly the third party.

Certainly a 905 "sweep" isn't likely for the Tories.  The NDP is very likely to pick up Oshawa and Brampton East and quite likely to break further into Brampton/Malton.  Half a dozen seats or so for the Liberals seems about right, in some ridings where they were narrowly defeated last time and where the NDP isn't going to be a contender.

Peel Region could very well see all three parties represented.

By sheer coincidence, there's a poll that bring together the two main strands of conversation so far (the debate and the vote patterns of the GTA):

Trudeau seen as strongest candidate by Torontonians in 1st debate

An interesting snippet from it:

"Trudeau was especially strong with residents in North York (31 per cent) and Peel Region (27 per cent), while Harper scored well in Etobicoke (27 per cent)."
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #119 on: August 08, 2015, 06:30:27 AM »


She needs to talk more about oil. Lord knows we could use a boost in Alberta Tongue
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #120 on: August 08, 2015, 06:31:00 AM »

Although if I was Mulcair, I'd have someone discreetly remind her that this is a national campaign.
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Krago
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« Reply #121 on: August 08, 2015, 09:36:10 AM »

Sure, a projection model certainly doesn't capture things like incumbency or big swings very well.  For example, claims that the NDP is set to lose Surrey-Newton to the Liberals strike me as ridiculous.

But I don't see the 905 swinging Liberal in particular if they're clearly the third party.

Certainly a 905 "sweep" isn't likely for the Tories.  The NDP is very likely to pick up Oshawa and Brampton East and quite likely to break further into Brampton/Malton.  Half a dozen seats or so for the Liberals seems about right, in some ridings where they were narrowly defeated last time and where the NDP isn't going to be a contender.

Peel Region could very well see all three parties represented.

By sheer coincidence, there's a poll that bring together the two main strands of conversation so far (the debate and the vote patterns of the GTA):

Trudeau seen as strongest candidate by Torontonians in 1st debate

An interesting snippet from it:

"Trudeau was especially strong with residents in North York (31 per cent) and Peel Region (27 per cent), while Harper scored well in Etobicoke (27 per cent)."

Here's another interesting snippet:

"“We have to be careful, because this poll was conducted between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m., and not everyone is home at that time,” Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said in a release Friday evening."

Gotta love Forum!  The drunken uncle of Canada's polling companies.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #122 on: August 08, 2015, 09:44:34 AM »

Any polls out since that Forum one? We need to confirm if this NDP pushing 40% trend is real or not.
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Krago
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« Reply #123 on: August 08, 2015, 12:43:33 PM »

Any polls out since that Forum one? We need to confirm if this NDP pushing 40% trend is real or not.

It's the worst of both worlds for the NDP.  Nobody really believes that they were at 39%, but if the next poll shows them at 32% it will be seen as a disaster.
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DL
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« Reply #124 on: August 08, 2015, 03:02:30 PM »

According to this poll of BC by Mainstreet on the leaders debate, the NDP has a huge lead on current federal vote intention - NDP 37%, Liberals 26%, CPC 23%, Greens 5% and 8% are undecided

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/2015/08/08/trudeau-narrowly-wins-debate/

Those numbers suggest that the federal NDP is getting 100% of the BC NDP vote while the BC Liberal vote is split down the middle between the federal liberals and the federal Conservatives
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