Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Krago]

Latest Nanos Poll

(change from previous week)
Cons: 31.2% (+0.3%)
NDP: 30.4% (+0.3%)
Lib: 28.6% (-0.7%)
Green: 5.0% (-0.4%)
BQ: 4.2% (+0.9%)

Atlantic: Lib 48% NDP 32% Cons 18% Green 2%
Quebec: NDP 39% Lib 28% BQ 17% Cons 13% Green 3%
Ontario: Cons 37% Lib 29% NDP 26% Green 8%
MB/SK/AB: Cons 56% NDP 19% Lib 18% Green 6%
BC: NDP 41% Lib 29% Cons 26% Green 4%


A few points:
- No two regions have the same order (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
- In BC, the NDP has gained 15 points in the past month, all from the Greens
- Tories love those Ontario numbers

[Hatman 🍁]

FTQ endorses the NPD. No surprise.

One can argue it is somewhat surprising, more of a "Finally" moment. FTQ endorsed the Bloc in 1993, 1997, 2000, 2006, 2008, and 2011.

What happened in 2004?

[MaxQue]

Latest Nanos Poll

(change from previous week)
Cons: 31.2% (+0.3%)
NDP: 30.4% (+0.3%)
Lib: 28.6% (-0.7%)
Green: 5.0% (-0.4%)
BQ: 4.2% (+0.9%)

Atlantic: Lib 48% NDP 32% Cons 18% Green 2%
Quebec: NDP 39% Lib 28% BQ 17% Cons 13% Green 3%
Ontario: Cons 37% Lib 29% NDP 26% Green 8%
MB/SK/AB: Cons 56% NDP 19% Lib 18% Green 6%
BC: NDP 41% Lib 29% Cons 26% Green 4%


A few points:
- No two regions have the same order (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
- In BC, the NDP has gained 15 points in the past month, all from the Greens
- Tories love those Ontario numbers

So NDP 33, CPC 31, Lib 26?

It seems we must do +3 to NDP and -3 to Liberals with Nanos until 7 days before the election.

[MaxQue]

Jean-François Larose (the Repentigny MP who left NDP to co-found Strenght in Democracy) becomes the party president and announces he will be running in La-Pointe-de-l'Île against former BQ leader Mario Beaulieu. So, not in the seat where he is the incumbent.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-canada-2015/2015/08/11/007-forces-democratie-larose-pointe-de-lile-mario-beaulieu-bloc-quebecois.shtml?isAutoPlay=1

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wait Greens are higher in Ontario and the Plains than BC, where they only get 4%! That doesn't seem right.

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos: 33 (-1), 31 (-2), 28 (+3).

Mulcair confirms his participation in the Munk debate. Our first FP-only debate and IIRC, our first bilingual debate.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Seems like a winner IMO:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=DG6fhub9HDQ

[Mr. Morden]

Seems like a winner IMO:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=DG6fhub9HDQ

That is the greatest campaign ad of all time.  Even better than Mike Gravel's "Rock" campaign ad from 2008.

[MaxQue]

Ipsos: 33 (-1), 31 (-2), 28 (+3).

Mulcair confirms his participation in the Munk debate. Our first FP-only debate and IIRC, our first bilingual debate.

Seems we have the final list.

English MacLean debate (already done)
English Globe and Mail debate
Bilingual Munk debate on foreign policy
French TVA debate
French Radio-Canada/consortium debate (Harper finally accepted, as it seems he had no other choice for a debate in French).

[136or142]

Ipsos: 33 (-1), 31 (-2), 28 (+3).

Mulcair confirms his participation in the Munk debate. Our first FP-only debate and IIRC, our first bilingual debate.

Seems we have the final list.

English MacLean debate (already done)
English Globe and Mail debate
Bilingual Munk debate on foreign policy
French TVA debate
French Radio-Canada/consortium debate (Harper finally accepted, as it seems he had no other choice for a debate in French).

1.What about the TVA debate you also mentioned that will be in French?

2.Will Elizabeth May be in any of the remaining debates?

[MaxQue]

Ipsos: 33 (-1), 31 (-2), 28 (+3).

Mulcair confirms his participation in the Munk debate. Our first FP-only debate and IIRC, our first bilingual debate.

Seems we have the final list.

English MacLean debate (already done)
English Globe and Mail debate
Bilingual Munk debate on foreign policy
French TVA debate
French Radio-Canada/consortium debate (Harper finally accepted, as it seems he had no other choice for a debate in French).

1.What about the TVA debate you also mentioned that will be in French?

2.Will Elizabeth May be in any of the remaining debates?

Globe and Mail will be on September 17, with only the 3 main leaders.

Radio-Canada will be on September 24, with May and Duceppe.

Munk Debate will be on September 28. It's not clear whether May will be there, but Trudeau says he won't go if she isn't there. It's on foreign policy, so, she would make all other leaders looks saner.

TVA is the biggest Quebec TV channel. Private, belongs to Peladeau. May won't be in, but Duceppe will. Will be on October 2 (a Friday).

[Хahar 🤔]

I'll never understand the Liberal Party's obsession with propping up the Green Party.

[Cassius]

One query; why do the Conservatives seem to be doing so badly British Columbia? I know that BC has, traditionally, been one of the NDP's strongest provinces, but the Conservatives have won the most votes and seats there since their formation, and the province was a stronghold for the Canadia Alliance/ Reform party before that (although, if I recall correctly, Reform and to a lesser extent the Canadian Alliance had a stronger regional, non-ideological appeal, than the present Conservative party does, which might be a factor). But now the Conservatives seem to be polling third a lot.

[DL]

Trudeau has NOT said he will not attend the Munk debate unless May is there. All he said was that he would like her to be there. There is no way Trudeau would take the risk of threatening not to attend since it's quite possible his bluff would be called and we would have a two way debate between Harper and Mulcair

[Hatman 🍁]

One query; why do the Conservatives seem to be doing so badly British Columbia? I know that BC has, traditionally, been one of the NDP's strongest provinces, but the Conservatives have won the most votes and seats there since their formation, and the province was a stronghold for the Canadia Alliance/ Reform party before that (although, if I recall correctly, Reform and to a lesser extent the Canadian Alliance had a stronger regional, non-ideological appeal, than the present Conservative party does, which might be a factor). But now the Conservatives seem to be polling third a lot.

I suspect a lot of that Conservative vote has shifted to the Liberals. I suspect they will go back to supporting the Tories when they realize the Liberals have no chance in most BC ridings.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BC has a very volatile electorate, even for Canada. Always been that way.

[136or142]

From Vancouver Sun:

"Every member of the (Steveston-Richmond East) riding executive except one - who was on vacation -  resigned as Joe Peschisolido a former Liberal M.P for Richmond was acclaimed at a nomination meeting."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well... a former Liberal MP, yes. But elected for the CA. And then deselected by the local Liberal Party in favour of the Liberal MP he defeated to win the seat in the first place.

[MaxQue]

Manon Perreault, the MP for Montcalm, expelled from NDP due to being convinced for public mischief (she did a complaint to police about an employee stealing things for the constituency office, when nothing was ever stolen in the first place, in order of being able to fire her), has been recruited by Strenght in Democracy.

They believe her version than she was framed by that former employee.

[VPH]

What on earth does Strength in Democracy stand for?

[King of Kensington]

I suspect a lot of that Conservative vote has shifted to the Liberals. I suspect they will go back to supporting the Tories when they realize the Liberals have no chance in most BC ridings.

I agree.  The only ridings I think the Liberals I can see the Liberals picking up are West Van-Sunshine Coast (they're running the former mayor of West Van and it's the kind of riding where strategic voting for the Liberals can work), North Van, Vancouver-Granville and Vancouver South. 

Granville looks like more of a naturally "Liberal" riding but if the provincial NDP vote holds up they can win it (as it consists mostly of Fairview).  Vancouver South could see the Tories slip through. 

These "projections" saying the Liberals will win Surrey-Newton strike me as ridiculous.

[MaxQue]

What on earth does Strength in Democracy stand for?

It was for Quebec independence at first, but now seems to run on autonomy for all provinces and a focus on regional developpment and enpowerment and ramblings about "party line voting is bad, local MPs know better what is better locally" and "federal government is imposing things on regions and communities".

They pla on running 25 to 35 candidates, saying they prefer running no candidate to running a candidate not implanted enough in his riding (and then goes running the Repentigny incumbent MP somewhere on Montreal Island...).

[andrew_c]

(and then goes running the Repentigny incumbent MP somewhere on Montreal Island...).

He's running in La Pointe-de-l'Île.

[VPH]

Interesting. Wonder if that MP will take Bloc votes. I wouldn't mind the NDP holding that riding. I believe that's my grandpa's riding.

[Boston Bread]

I wish someone would actually poll SiD, so we can see whether SiD support actually exists.