Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[lilTommy]

Forum Poll
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/13/mulcair-seen-as-skilled-as-harper-on-the-economy-poll-shows.html

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/351/headed-for-slim-majority/

NDP - 34%
CPC - 28%
LPC - 27%
NDP lead in, surprise, BC, PQ and tied in ON (33% NDP, CPC & LPC 31%)

bump for the Liberals at the expense of the NDP, after Trudeau was seen to have performed better then expected. But really, I think Liberals and Conservatives were playing that up, setting low expectations so that, as long as Justin didn't frak up he'd be seen as the winner... but that closing statement!

At any rate, the NDP leads on who would be best to handle the economy, statistical tie really 30% vs the CPC at 29%, LPC at 26% with the Economic debate still to come. Mulcair just needs to find a better balance, bring out the bear more in the debate.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wish someone would actually poll SiD, so we can see whether SiD support actually exists.

It doesn't exist, so why bother?

Forum Poll
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/13/mulcair-seen-as-skilled-as-harper-on-the-economy-poll-shows.html

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/351/headed-for-slim-majority/

NDP - 34%
CPC - 28%
LPC - 27%
NDP lead in, surprise, BC, PQ and tied in ON (33% NDP, CPC & LPC 31%)

bump for the Liberals at the expense of the NDP, after Trudeau was seen to have performed better then expected. But really, I think Liberals and Conservatives were playing that up, setting low expectations so that, as long as Justin didn't frak up he'd be seen as the winner... but that closing statement!

At any rate, the NDP leads on who would be best to handle the economy, statistical tie really 30% vs the CPC at 29%, LPC at 26% with the Economic debate still to come. Mulcair just needs to find a better balance, bring out the bear more in the debate.

This isn't so much a drop for the NDP as just being a more accurate poll than their last one, which was most likely an outlier.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I've gotta say, "strength in democracy" ranks along with "True Finns" and "Party for the Future Generations" as some of the most unbelievably creepy names you can give your party.

[Zanas]

I've gotta say, "strength in democracy" ranks along with "True Finns" and "Party for the Future Generations" as some of the most unbelievably creepy names you can give your party.

Well the original French name is "Forces et démocratie", so it should have been translated to "Strengths and democracy", which is only slightly less idiotic, but can refer to various strengths of the territories, expressed via democracy.

Oh and "True Finns" were never actually "true" Finns. Their name translates better as "regular Finns", "plain old Finns", "John Doe Finns".

[DL]

I thought the English translation of "Forces et democratie" was "dregs, misfits and rejects"

[YL]

Presumably the state crossbreaks in Canadian polling are not particularly reliable?

[VPH]

I thought the English translation of "Forces et democratie" was "dregs, misfits and rejects"

lol

[136or142]

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This isn't so much a drop for the NDP as just being a more accurate poll than their last one, which was most likely an outlier.
[/quote]

The provincial results on both the Forum Poll and the Ipsos Poll are also quite similar.

[DC Al Fine]

Presumably the state crossbreaks in Canadian polling are not particularly reliable?

Not especially. Sample size is terrible outside of Ontario & Quebec, and that's before you factor in the volatility of the electorate.

[DC Al Fine]

Harper 'delighted' to see roll out of Ontario Retirement Pension Plan delayed

While I support additional pension plans in principle, Wynne really screwed the pooch on this one; somehow managing to harm both the poor and the rich at the same time.

[Krago]

Mainstreet Technologies shows a three-way race

Canada: Cons 30% NDP 30% Lib 29% Green 6% BQ 4%

Atlantic: Lib 43% Cons 26% NDP 24% Green 7%
Quebec: NDP 32% Lib 30% Cons 20% BQ 15% Green 3%
Ontario: Cons 33% NDP 31% Lib 31% Green 5%
Manitoba: Cons 44% Lib 34% NDP 17% Green 5%
Saskatchewan: Cons 46% NDP 29% Lib 18% Green 8%
Alberta: Cons 50% Lib 23% NDP 19% Green 7%
BC: NDP 40% Lib 25% Cons 22% Green 13%

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Mainstreet Technologies shows a three-way race

Canada: Cons 30% NDP 30% Lib 29% Green 6% BQ 4%

Atlantic: Lib 43% Cons 26% NDP 24% Green 7%
Quebec: NDP 32% Lib 30% Cons 20% BQ 15% Green 3%
Ontario: Cons 33% NDP 31% Lib 31% Green 5%
Manitoba: Cons 44% Lib 34% NDP 17% Green 5%
Saskatchewan: Cons 46% NDP 29% Lib 18% Green 8%
Alberta: Cons 50% Lib 23% NDP 19% Green 7%
BC: NDP 40% Lib 25% Cons 22% Green 13%

These are the people who previously had the Tories ~ten points ahead, aren't they?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not especially. Sample size is terrible outside of Ontario & Quebec, and that's before you factor in the volatility of the electorate.

^^^

Ontario and Quebec breakdowns are usually at least vaguely useful, but for elsewhere you need a lot of salt. And when samples are small enough individual ridings can skew the results: a sample from Saskatchewan (for instance) that includes a lot of voters from Regina-Wascana is maybe not going to be much use.

[King of Kensington]

Former Saskatchewan Finance Minister Andrew Thomson to run for the NDP in Eglinton-Lawrence.  He'll be lucky to get more than 15% of the vote, but I guess he does serve the purpose of signalling to GTA voters that the NDP is "credible on the economy."

https://www.facebook.com/Thomas.Gallezot/photos/a.519709998

[DL]

Mainstreet Technologies shows a three-way race

Canada: Cons 30% NDP 30% Lib 29% Green 6% BQ 4%

Atlantic: Lib 43% Cons 26% NDP 24% Green 7%
Quebec: NDP 32% Lib 30% Cons 20% BQ 15% Green 3%
Ontario: Cons 33% NDP 31% Lib 31% Green 5%
Manitoba: Cons 44% Lib 34% NDP 17% Green 5%
Saskatchewan: Cons 46% NDP 29% Lib 18% Green 8%
Alberta: Cons 50% Lib 23% NDP 19% Green 7%
BC: NDP 40% Lib 25% Cons 22% Green 13%

I find Mainstreet number to be very whacky. Just two weeks ago they had the CPC at 45% in Ontario and the NDP at 21% - now they have the CPC at 33 and the NDP at 31 - does anyone seriously believe that a swing of that magnitude happened just in the last two weeks? ...and no other poll released this week has the Liberals anywhere near 30% in Quebec - they are hovering around 20%

[DL]

Latest EKOS poll is out but behind a paywall. It says

NDP - 32%
CPC - 30%
Liberals 24%

I'm told it has the NDP way ahead in BC and Quebec and the NDP slightly ahead in Ontario. Tories are way ahead across the Prairies.

[136or142]

Mainstreet Technologies shows a three-way race

Canada: Cons 30% NDP 30% Lib 29% Green 6% BQ 4%

Atlantic: Lib 43% Cons 26% NDP 24% Green 7%
Quebec: NDP 32% Lib 30% Cons 20% BQ 15% Green 3%
Ontario: Cons 33% NDP 31% Lib 31% Green 5%
Manitoba: Cons 44% Lib 34% NDP 17% Green 5%
Saskatchewan: Cons 46% NDP 29% Lib 18% Green 8%
Alberta: Cons 50% Lib 23% NDP 19% Green 7%
BC: NDP 40% Lib 25% Cons 22% Green 13%

These numbers are mostly consistent with the Forum and Ipsos polls except for the NDP in the Atlantic, The Liberals in Quebec, the NDP/Lberals in Alberta and the Conservatives in B.C.

[136or142]

I would agree that Mainstreet will lose its credibility if they continue to show wild swings, but then the previous two Forum polls also showed wild swings, and Forum is regarded as the most credible polling firm in Canada.

[Хahar 🤔]

It's almost like Canadian voters are prone to wild swings.

[King of Kensington]

Deleted.  This is from 2 months ago.

[adma]

One thing that's been puzzling me is how surprisingly robust and enduring Liberal support seems to be in Winnipeg--granted, it may be a strong slate of candidates, three retired CPC incumbents, and continued Selinger backlash; but, still.  (How are the *provincial* Liberals doing, anyway?)

[RogueBeaver]

Justin wants all the OLP organizational help he can get, but Wynne appearances only in 416.

Leger national poll out tomorrow, he's hinting at several surprises.

[Krago]

EKOS (Aug 5-11) / Forum (Aug 10-11) / Mainstreet (Aug 10-11) / Leger (Aug 10-12) / Election (May 2, 2011)

Canada	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger	2011
Cons	30.4	28	30	27	39.6
NDP	31.8	34	30	33	30.6
Lib	24.2	27	29	28	18.9
BQ	4.2	6	4	5	6.1
Green	7.3	4	6	6	3.9

Atlantic	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger	2011
Cons	20	25	26	15	37.9
NDP	33	28	24	36	29.5
Lib	35	41	43	41	29.3
Green	9	6	7	8	3

Quebec	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger	2011
Cons	20	17	20	17	16.5
NDP	36	37	32	40	42.9
Lib	20	22	30	21	14.2
BQ	18	21	15	21	23.4
Green	4	1	3	1	2.1

Ontario	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger	2011
Cons	31	31	33	30	44.4
NDP	32	33	31	31	25.6
Lib	28	31	31	31	25.3
Green	7	4	5	5	3.8

Man/Sask	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger	2011
Cons		43		36	54.9
NDP		26		21	28.9
Lib		27		33	12.7
Green		4		8	3.1

Manitoba	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger	2011
Cons	34		44		53.5
NDP	20		17		25.8
Lib	36		34		16.6
Green	8		5		3.6

Sask.	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger	2011
Cons	41		46		56.3
NDP	33		29		32.3
Lib	19		18		8.5
Green	5		8		2.6

Alberta	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger	2011
Cons	54	44	50	46	66.8
NDP	23	32	19	23	16.8
Lib	13	17	23	22	9.3
Green	8	5	7	8	5.2

B.C.	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger	2011
Cons	29	27	22	23	45.6
NDP	35	38	40	36	32.5
Lib	21	29	25	26	13.4
Green	13	6	13	13	7.7

[Njall]

One thing that's been puzzling me is how surprisingly robust and enduring Liberal support seems to be in Winnipeg--granted, it may be a strong slate of candidates, three retired CPC incumbents, and continued Selinger backlash; but, still.  (How are the *provincial* Liberals doing, anyway?)

The Manitoba Liberal Party currently has only 1 of 57 seats in the legislative assembly, but they've been polling at around 20% as of late, and seem to have picked up nearly all of the support that the MBNDP has lost.

[Hatman 🍁]

One thing that's been puzzling me is how surprisingly robust and enduring Liberal support seems to be in Winnipeg--granted, it may be a strong slate of candidates, three retired CPC incumbents, and continued Selinger backlash; but, still.  (How are the *provincial* Liberals doing, anyway?)

Manitobans will not vote for the federal NDP no matter how popular they are in other provinces, as long as they have an unpopular provincial government. See 1988.