Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[RogueBeaver]

There are no words.

[Phony Moderate]

......................................

[DL]

Those four seats include Lethbridge (Edm Griesbach, Edm Centre, Edm Manning being the others). The NDP could win Edm Mill Woods too on a good day.

There is one more "sleeper" for the NDP could be St. Albert-Edmonton where Brent Rathgeber is running again as an Independent and could split the conservative vote and enable the NDP to win in a three way race.

[King of Kensington]

There are no words.

And sadly, he's likely to pull through as well, coming in with say, 37% of the vote.  The Liberals are looking too weak to take that seat back and it doesn't look like a winnable seat for the NDP either.  An NDP surge would just allow Adler to slip through, unfortunately.

The riding's Jewish population has been shrinking over the past 2 decades - it's now populated by the elderly, the Orthodox and immigrants from the FSU. 

[MaxQue]

The FSU?

[Krago]

The FSU?

Former Soviet Union

[cp]

Aaah. That makes much more sense than Florida State University.

[Hatman 🍁]

Spadina-Fort York poll (Forum Research): http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Spadina-Fort%20York%20News%20Release%20%282015%2008%2006%29%208311%20Forum%20Research.pdf

Olivia Chow (NDP): 57%
Adam Vaughan (Lib): 28% (incumbent)
Sabrina Zuniga (Cons): 10%
Camille Labchuk (Green): 4%

I doubt the lead is that much. In fact, it looks like they heavily weighted up 18-34 demo. However, I don't doubt she is leading by at least 10 points.

[Krago]

Spadina-Fort York poll (Forum Research): http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Spadina-Fort%20York%20News%20Release%20%282015%2008%2006%29%208311%20Forum%20Research.pdf

Olivia Chow (NDP): 57%
Adam Vaughan (Lib): 28% (incumbent)
Sabrina Zuniga (Cons): 10%
Camille Labchuk (Green): 4%

I doubt the lead is that much. In fact, it looks like they heavily weighted up 18-34 demo. However, I don't doubt she is leading by at least 10 points.

Look at the Age cross-tabs:



The sample size distribution is just insane.  No reputable polling firm would have dared to publish this poll.

[lilTommy]

Spadina-Fort York poll (Forum Research): http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Spadina-Fort%20York%20News%20Release%20%282015%2008%2006%29%208311%20Forum%20Research.pdf

Olivia Chow (NDP): 57%
Adam Vaughan (Lib): 28% (incumbent)
Sabrina Zuniga (Cons): 10%
Camille Labchuk (Green): 4%

I doubt the lead is that much. In fact, it looks like they heavily weighted up 18-34 demo. However, I don't doubt she is leading by at least 10 points.

Look at the Age cross-tabs:



The sample size distribution is just insane.  No reputable polling firm would have dared to publish this poll.

I saw this today, the sample size being so small you have to take with a gain of sand... more people live in one building in the riding then were sampled here (they couldn't get more?)

The article makes a big deal about being weighted too much with the under 30... it's the smallest ample group! i think the over 65 are over represented in this riding (mine). What is telling is that Olivia leads in each group, but a 30 point lead... no, I expect it to be much closer 5-10%

Some liberals in my riding have become beyond annoying with their attacks on mulcair and chow, many more personal then anything. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Spadina-Fort York poll (Forum Research): http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Spadina-Fort%20York%20News%20Release%20%282015%2008%2006%29%208311%20Forum%20Research.pdf

Olivia Chow (NDP): 57%
Adam Vaughan (Lib): 28% (incumbent)
Sabrina Zuniga (Cons): 10%
Camille Labchuk (Green): 4%

I doubt the lead is that much. In fact, it looks like they heavily weighted up 18-34 demo. However, I don't doubt she is leading by at least 10 points.

Look at the Age cross-tabs:



The sample size distribution is just insane.  No reputable polling firm would have dared to publish this poll.

Yes, that was my point.

Problem is, young people don't answer surveys. But, they also don't vote.

[Krago]

Here is the Statistics Canada population age breakdown for Spadina--Fort York, compared to the Forum poll:

Age	StatsCan	Forum
18 to 34	51%	5%
35 to 44	20%	14%
45 to 54	12%	24%
55 to 64	9%	23%
65 +	9%	34%

It's true that young people don't vote, but that's ridiculous!

[lilTommy]

Here is the Statistics Canada population age breakdown for Spadina--Fort York, compared to the Forum poll:

Age	StatsCan	Forum
18 to 34	51%	5%
35 to 44	20%	14%
45 to 54	12%	24%
55 to 64	9%	23%
65 +	9%	34%

It's true that young people don't vote, but that's ridiculous!

... so forum just took the demographics and reversed them when they wanted to poll? ummm wow this is odd balls. But yes the NDP does tend to poll better with 18-34 but 83% Chow has a great youth ground game... getting them to vote is another matter eh

[lilTommy]

Have we posted Abacus yet?
http://abacusdata.ca/election-2015-ndp-leads-but-70-of-voters-up-for-grabs/

NDP - 35%
CPC - 29%
LPC - 26%

NDP - Strong Lead in PQ, small Lead in ON and BC (by two points) ON still three-way tie
CPC - Strong lead in the Prairies (AL, MAN, SASK)
LPC - Still strong lead in Atlantic, NDP is less then 10 Point behind though

the most "Really Liked" outcome is NDP Majority; the most over all Liked is NDP working with Liberals (sorry Justin)

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is the Statistics Canada population age breakdown for Spadina--Fort York, compared to the Forum poll:

Age	StatsCan	Forum
18 to 34	51%	5%
35 to 44	20%	14%
45 to 54	12%	24%
55 to 64	9%	23%
65 +	9%	34%

It's true that young people don't vote, but that's ridiculous!

... so forum just took the demographics and reversed them when they wanted to poll? ummm wow this is odd balls. But yes the NDP does tend to poll better with 18-34 but 83% Chow has a great youth ground game... getting them to vote is another matter eh

Again, young people don't respond to polls, plus most young people do not have landlines (it's impossible to do riding polls in Toronto with cell sample). Those 15 young people appear to be weighted up 10 times their worth to equal half the sample. Not very good methodology. And those 15 kids with landlines aren't going to be very representative of your average young person in the riding (as they probably live at home with mom and dad, if they have a landline!)

[DL]

This is a huge problem with any polling at the riding level. People under 40 do not have landlines and it is IMPOSSIBLE to get cell phone numbers at the riding level.

All that being said, we recently had byelections in Toronto Centre and in Trinity-Spadina and those are both ridings that skew very young compared to the Canadian population...despite the fact that the survey respondents tended to be so much older than the demographic profile of those ridings, the polls were very accurate in predicting the results.

Conservative support tends to skew old - in a Liberal vs NDP contest it is less clear that one party or the other has a particularly big advantage with one age group.

[Hatman 🍁]

This is a huge problem with any polling at the riding level. People under 40 do not have landlines and it is IMPOSSIBLE to get cell phone numbers at the riding level.

Impossible for large cities, but not as problematic for smaller cities/rural areas, when you can trace cell phone numbers to local rate centres.

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This is true, which is why I'm not too worried about the lack of cell phone cases in riding polls for the time being.

[Vega]

Does the NDP have a full policy manifesto anywhere? I can't seem to find one.

[2952-0-0]

With these numbers it's hard for the NDP to gain many seats in Ontario. The cities in southwestern Ontario such as London, Hamilton, KW, Brantford, and Sarnia are competitive. A few more points makes rural SW Ontario in play. 905 seats are out of the question, however.

[adma]

905 seats are out of the question, however.

Other than Brampton East and Oshawa, of course.  Nor are the rest out of the question for the Liberals--remember, we're dealing with three competitive parties here, not two.

[Hatman 🍁]

Durham is also a potential NDP target.

[toaster]

Durham is also a potential NDP target.

With the NDP at 35% you could also add Mississauga Malton and Brampton Centre (and maybe even North) to the potential list.

[136or142]

Does the NDP have a full policy manifesto anywhere? I can't seem to find one.

I'm sure they will, but I'm also sure it hasn't been released yet.

These are the resolutions that were passed at the last NDP convention in 2013:
http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/ndp-convention-the-final-resolutions/

This is from the NDP website:
http://www.ndp.ca/issues

[Zanas]

Have we posted Abacus yet?
http://abacusdata.ca/election-2015-ndp-leads-but-70-of-voters-up-for-grabs/

NDP - 35%
CPC - 29%
LPC - 26%

NDP - Strong Lead in PQ, small Lead in ON and BC (by two points) ON still three-way tie
CPC - Strong lead in the Prairies (AL, MAN, SASK)
LPC - Still strong lead in Atlantic, NDP is less then 10 Point behind though

the most "Really Liked" outcome is NDP Majority; the most over all Liked is NDP working with Liberals (sorry Justin)

What has the Parti québécois to do with this ?

[MaxQue]

Have we posted Abacus yet?
http://abacusdata.ca/election-2015-ndp-leads-but-70-of-voters-up-for-grabs/

NDP - 35%
CPC - 29%
LPC - 26%

NDP - Strong Lead in PQ, small Lead in ON and BC (by two points) ON still three-way tie
CPC - Strong lead in the Prairies (AL, MAN, SASK)
LPC - Still strong lead in Atlantic, NDP is less then 10 Point behind though

the most "Really Liked" outcome is NDP Majority; the most over all Liked is NDP working with Liberals (sorry Justin)

What has the Parti québécois to do with this ?

PQ is an old abbreviation for Quebec (Province of/de Québec). Mainly replaced by QC, but some old people still use PQ.