Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)
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  Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)
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Author Topic: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)  (Read 233053 times)
Krago
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« Reply #275 on: August 20, 2015, 01:14:24 PM »

I gather that I am required at this juncture to perform my solemn ceremonial duty and remind everyone to be careful about constituency polling. And lo, it is done.

We are well aware of your opinions, Al. I think we all know to be careful. That doesn't mean we can't have fun and speculate. So, stop being a Debbie Downer.


This is a Canadian election thread: no fun is allowed.

If you want some fun, go to one of the American threads and mildly criticize Ayn Rand.
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DL
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« Reply #276 on: August 20, 2015, 02:05:42 PM »

The NDP at 27% in West Van is a bit of a surprise, considering how wealthy that area is.

The NDP is actually polling bellow their 2011 result in Elmwood-Transcona. The Liberals are eating into Tory and NDP support there. I suspect the Liberal numbers will go back down there, but how will they break?



West Van is not as uniformly wealthy as you may think. Its true that the municipality of West Vancouver is very ritsy, but that riding also includes much of the Sunshine Coast and places like Squamish which is strong NDP territory provincially and Whistler which is a crap shoot.

In Elmwood-Transcona - the VAST majority of Liberal voters say they are voting to defeat harper and elect a new government so i strongly suspect that if the Liberal vote drops it will go NDP and not CPC
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lilTommy
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« Reply #277 on: August 20, 2015, 03:16:25 PM »

The NDP at 27% in West Van is a bit of a surprise, considering how wealthy that area is.

The NDP is actually polling bellow their 2011 result in Elmwood-Transcona. The Liberals are eating into Tory and NDP support there. I suspect the Liberal numbers will go back down there, but how will they break?



West Van is not as uniformly wealthy as you may think. Its true that the municipality of West Vancouver is very ritsy, but that riding also includes much of the Sunshine Coast and places like Squamish which is strong NDP territory provincially and Whistler which is a crap shoot.

In Elmwood-Transcona - the VAST majority of Liberal voters say they are voting to defeat harper and elect a new government so i strongly suspect that if the Liberal vote drops it will go NDP and not CPC

True, not sure of the new Population but West Van is about 45K so probably about half the riding or so would be in West Van. The Liberals area of strength in 2011 was actually Whistler (LPC-CPC battle) and Bowen Island. The CPC owned West Van itself... the NDP were pretty competitive with the CPC along the Coast, Squamish and Powell River areas (Power River area has been moved out in favour of areas around Pemberton which voted NDP it looks like too)
The numbers seem to indicate the Liberals are either taking more of Whistler or more in West Van (or both). I doubt, since the NDP is also up, that the LPC is taking votes there.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #278 on: August 20, 2015, 06:42:28 PM »



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I could be wrong, but I believe other than the former pulp mill town of Powell River, most of the rest of the Sunshine Coast is quite wealthy, especially Gibsons.
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Vega
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« Reply #279 on: August 20, 2015, 09:33:57 PM »

This might not be the best thread for this, but the makers of President Forever/Infinity are coming out with a similar sim but based around the Canadian elections; ought to be fun.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #280 on: August 20, 2015, 10:27:29 PM »

They've done several  Prime Ministers forever.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #281 on: August 21, 2015, 07:48:04 AM »

Has anyone heard of Vector Research?
https://twitter.com/vectorresearch

They have a Parties Poll posted:
NDP - 35%
CPC - 27%
LPC - 27%
GPC - 6%
BQ - 5%
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Krago
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« Reply #282 on: August 21, 2015, 01:22:00 PM »

We've all heard of Forum.
NDP continues to lead Conservatives, Liberals

Canada
NDP 34
Cons 29
Lib 28
Green 4
BQ 4
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #283 on: August 21, 2015, 01:32:36 PM »

Relevant crosstabs:

Atlantic: 39 NDP / 32 Lib / 25 Con / 2 Grn
Quebec: 40 NDP / 23 Lib / 17 BQ / 16 Con / 3 Grn
Ontario: 33 Con / 32 Lib / 31 NDP / 4 Grn
Man./Sask.: 42 Con / 28 NCP / 26 Lib / 3 Grn
Alberta: 47 Con / 27 NDP / 20 Lib / 4 Grn
B.C.: 39 NDP / 28 Lib / 24 Con / 8 Grn

The three parties are basically tied among anglophones but the NDP has a huge lead among francophones.

I wish they would stop combining Manitoba and Saskatchewan; it accomplishes nothing.
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emcee0
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« Reply #284 on: August 21, 2015, 02:09:07 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2015, 02:16:29 PM by emcee0 »

New spokesperson for the CPC.
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Vega
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« Reply #285 on: August 21, 2015, 04:46:24 PM »

Out of curiosity, how do Canadian Asians vote? Don't they break pretty Liberal
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Frodo
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« Reply #286 on: August 21, 2015, 05:24:47 PM »

After Israel and the UK, if the Canadian election results in October actually approximate the polling we are seeing, I will be amazed.  Tongue
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #287 on: August 21, 2015, 05:57:40 PM »

Out of curiosity, how do Canadian Asians vote? Don't they break pretty Liberal

Depends on whether they're East or South Asians and whether or not they live in BC or Ontario.

East Asians vote Conservative in BC, Liberal in Ontario
South Asians vote NDP in BC, Liberal in Ontario
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #288 on: August 21, 2015, 10:55:29 PM »

Even in 2011?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #289 on: August 22, 2015, 07:57:24 AM »

Brad Wall says not enough attention on economy in campaign

He seems to be popping up a lot in this election.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #290 on: August 22, 2015, 09:11:01 AM »


Many South Asians voted NDP in Ontario, especially in Scarborough-Rouge River and Bramalea-Gore-Malton. Historically those are Liberal ridings, and outside of those two ridings, I think most South Asians in Ontario voted Liberal or Conservative.

Also, East Asians are increasingly voting Conservative in Ontario. But, the two most Chinese ridings still went Liberal in 2011.

In BC, some South Asians still vote Liberal. Those in Surrey tend to vote NDP, but in Vancouver South they vote Liberal. In Newton-North Delta, they were more divided.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #291 on: August 22, 2015, 09:19:31 PM »

Also, East Asians are increasingly voting Conservative in Ontario. But, the two most Chinese ridings still went Liberal in 2011. 

Though the Conservatives won the more heavily Chinese sections of Markham (i.e. Markham-Unionville in the present distribution).
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #292 on: August 22, 2015, 10:30:07 PM »

Also, East Asians are increasingly voting Conservative in Ontario. But, the two most Chinese ridings still went Liberal in 2011. 

Though the Conservatives won the more heavily Chinese sections of Markham (i.e. Markham-Unionville in the present distribution).


Same with Agincourt, I think. I'm trying to figure out why White people living in heavily Chinese ridings are more likely to vote Liberal than in other parts of the GTA. Maybe they're more tolerant?
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DL
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« Reply #293 on: August 22, 2015, 10:42:42 PM »

There was a byelection last year in Scarborough agincourt and it went liberal by a huge margin and the conservatives didn't even run a serious campaign
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #294 on: August 22, 2015, 11:34:39 PM »

Agincourt is certainly one of the 3 safest Liberal ridings in Ontario (along with probably St. Paul's and Ottawa South).
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #295 on: August 23, 2015, 09:22:34 AM »

Anne Lagacé Dawson is the Dipper candidate in Papineau.
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cp
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« Reply #296 on: August 23, 2015, 03:36:13 PM »

Only a Conservative win would result in continued prohibition of cannabis. Whether it would be legalized/decriminalized by the end of the year depends on whether the Liberals or NDP get in (Liberals are, I suspect, slightly less eager to change the law) and how much control of parliament they have (any minority government situation will make the ruling party more cautious).
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #297 on: August 23, 2015, 03:59:09 PM »

I don't think there's any meaningful difference between the NDP, Liberals and Greens on the issue of marijuana.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #298 on: August 23, 2015, 04:15:15 PM »

I thought Trudeau was taking the more libertarian stance on marijuana?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #299 on: August 23, 2015, 05:49:13 PM »

=http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-stephen-harper-unveils-tax-credit-plan-for-service-club-memberships-1.3200851Tories promise tax credit for service club memberships.

Standard micro targeting stuff.

NDP scales back promised corporate tax hike
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