Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Linus Van Pelt]

White people living in heavily Chinese ridings are more likely to vote Liberal than in other parts of the GTA.

This doesn't seem right. What is the evidence for this?

[RogueBeaver]

Michel C. Auger on comatose Quebec Gritdom.

Grits to unveil their vets policy tomorrow.

[Krago]

Here's the weekly poll round-up.  I won't be including Nanos polls until they get rid of their silly four-week rolling sample.

Election (May 2, 2011) / Leger (Aug 10-12) / Abacus (Aug 14-17) / Forum (Aug 17-19)

Canada	2011	Leger	Abacus	Forum
Cons	39.6	27	29	29
NDP	30.6	33	35	34
Lib	18.9	28	26	28
BQ	6.1	5	3	4
Green	3.9	6	6	4

Atlantic	2011	Leger	Abacus	Forum
Cons	37.9	15	18	25
NDP	29.5	36	36	39
Lib	29.3	41	45	32
Green	3.0	8	1	2

Quebec	2011	Leger	Abacus	Forum
Cons	16.5	17	13	16
NDP	42.9	40	47	40
Lib	14.2	21	20	23
BQ	23.4	21	13	17
Green	2.1	1	6	3

Ontario	2011	Leger	Abacus	Forum
Cons	44.4	30	30	33
NDP	25.6	31	32	31
Lib	25.3	31	30	32
Green	3.8	5	7	4

Man/Sask	2011	Leger	Abacus	Forum
Cons	54.9	36	47	42
NDP	28.9	21	26	28
Lib	12.7	33	24	26
Green	3.1	8	1	3

Alberta	2011	Leger	Abacus	Forum
Cons	66.8	46	60	47
NDP	16.8	23	22	27
Lib	9.3	22	14	20
Green	5.2	8	4	4

B.C.	2011	Leger	Abacus	Forum
Cons	45.6	23	32	24
NDP	32.5	36	34	39
Lib	13.4	26	24	28
Green	7.7	13	9	8

[Hatman 🍁]

White people living in heavily Chinese ridings are more likely to vote Liberal than in other parts of the GTA.

This doesn't seem right. What is the evidence for this?

I was actually thinking of the provincial election. The Whiter southwest corner of the riding went solidly Liberal, while the Tories did much better in the rest of the riding, which is a majority Chinese. But, this could have had to do with Wynne's sexuality.

Federally, there wasn't much of a pattern in either 2011 or the subsequent by-election in terms of racial voting patterns.

[lilTommy]

In Nunavut... things got all messed up

Hunter Tootoo, the former NDPer is running for the Liberals;
Jack Anawack, the former Liberal MP (88-93) is running for the NDP.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/jack-anawak-named-as-nunavut-s-ndp-candidate-1.3201188

[136or142]

Manitoba NDP MLA and one of the 'Gang of 5' Erin Selby is reportedly considering running for the Federal NDP in the St. Boniface riding.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/st-boniface-gets-polled-on-possible-erin-selby-federal-election-run-1.3199851

St Boniface is the riding Greg Selinger represents provincially. If she becomes the federal candidate,  I wonder if they'll campaign together.

Should Erin Selby become the nominee, it would mean that at least one former NDP provincial cabinet minister is running federally in every province the NDP has held office in (except for Alberta of course.)

In B.C, Jenny Kwan was the Municipal Affairs Minister for the duration of the term from 1996-2001, although the portfolio was renamed midway through her term.  She was also Minister of Women's Equality for a while.

In Saskatchewan, Lon Borgerson was made a cabinet minister for a few months when Premier Lorne Calvert named every M.L.A who was planning on running again in the 2007 election to the cabinet except for the M.L.A who was the Chief Government Whip (Andy Iwanchuk I believe.)

In Ontario, Howard Hampton who was the Attorney General from 1990-1993 and then Minister of Natural Resources and Native Affairs from 1993-1995 in the Bob Rae government is running and two former Cabinet Ministers are already M.Ps: David Christopherson who was the highly regarded Solicitor General for a little over 2 years (and was the Minister of Correctional Services for the year before that, a position he retained until 1995.)  Also, Irene Mathyssen was a Junior Minister for a while in the government.

Finally, in Nova Scotia, the newly nominated candidate NDP candidate in Peter McKay's riding, Ross Landry, was the Attorney General for the duration of the Dexter government.

[Hatman 🍁]

Something tells me Selinger will not be campaigning

[Krago]

There are two more former provincial cabinet ministers running for the NDP: Andrew Thomson In Eglinton-Lawrence and Thomas Mulcair in Outremont.

[136or142]

There are two more former provincial cabinet ministers running for the NDP: Andrew Thomson In Eglinton-Lawrence and Thomas Mulcair in Outremont.

Forgot about Thomson, but he's not running in Saskatchewan and Mulcair was never in a provincial NDP government.

There was also Francois Beaulne who was a star Quebec NDP candidate in the 1988 federal election who became a P.Q cabinet minister shortly after that, but he lost the NDP nomination for this election.

[Hatman 🍁]

This doesn't belong here, but TnVolunteer's email was hacked.  I just received a pornographic message from his email.  Don't believe there was a virus in it.

There is a thread about it in the Atlas Forum.

[136or142]

This doesn't belong here, but TnVolunteer's email was hacked.  I just received a pornographic message from his email.  Don't believe there was a virus in it.

There is a thread about it in the Atlas Forum.

Thanks, I deleted my post.

[okierepublican]

As someone without much knowledge on Canada police car can someone tell me the parties from most to least conservqtive?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

As someone without much knowledge on Canada police car can someone tell me the parties from most to least conservqtive?

I'm assuming you mean "Canadian politics", and though I might not be the most knowledgable, I could certainly fill you in.

Most conservative:
Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) - standard right-wing party, perhaps not as right-wing as the US Republicans but to the right of European conservatives, has held power since 2006 but did not win a majority in Parliament until 2011 (after another election produced another minority Conservative government in 2008), currently polling about 10 points lower than its 2011 totals, definitely feeling the pressure of "Harper fatigue" after nearly 10 years in power.
Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) - centrist "natural governing party", has ruled Canada for most of its independent history, most recently having won an election in 2004 (albeit with a minority government), currently the 3rd party after the rise of the NDP in 2011 and appears poised to maintain that position, but with significant gains.
New Democratic Party (NDP) - center-left to left-wing social democrats, historically the 3rd party but rose to Official Opposition in 2011 after riding the "orange wave", currently leading the polls and poised to become the largest party in Parliament for the first time in history.
Bloc Quebecois (BQ) - socialist party advocating independence for Quebec, previously held most Quebec seats in Parliament but was reduced to just 4 in 2011 (thanks to the orange wave), and inner turmoil since 2011 and tiredness with the separatist cause in general appears set to demolish the party once and for all.
Green Party - standard greenies, probably going to keep their 1 seat in BC but not expand much elsewhere.
Least Conservative

If anyone more well-versed notices any mistakes or such please feel free to correct me.

[Barnes]

The Greens aren't left-wing, nor would they describe themselves as such.

On another note, Mulcair has withdrawn from a planned debate on Women's Issues leading to its cancellation.  Before the NDP reneged on its invitation all but the Conservatives were set to participate.

[lilTommy]

As someone without much knowledge on Canada police car can someone tell me the parties from most to least conservqtive?

I'm assuming you mean "Canadian politics", and though I might not be the most knowledgable, I could certainly fill you in.

Most conservative:
Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) - standard right-wing party, perhaps not as right-wing as the US Republicans but to the right of European conservatives, has held power since 2006 but did not win a majority in Parliament until 2011 (after another election produced another minority Conservative government in 2008), currently polling about 10 points lower than its 2011 totals, definitely feeling the pressure of "Harper fatigue" after nearly 10 years in power.
Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) - centrist "natural governing party", has ruled Canada for most of its independent history, most recently having won an election in 2004 (albeit with a minority government), currently the 3rd party after the rise of the NDP in 2011 and appears poised to maintain that position, but with significant gains.
New Democratic Party (NDP) - center-left to left-wing social democrats, historically the 3rd party but rose to Official Opposition in 2011 after riding the "orange wave", currently leading the polls and poised to become the largest party in Parliament for the first time in history.
Bloc Quebecois (BQ) - socialist party advocating independence for Quebec, previously held most Quebec seats in Parliament but was reduced to just 4 in 2011 (thanks to the orange wave), and inner turmoil since 2011 and tiredness with the separatist cause in general appears set to demolish the party once and for all.
Green Party - standard greenies, probably going to keep their 1 seat in BC but not expand much elsewhere.
Least Conservative

If anyone more well-versed notices any mistakes or such please feel free to correct me.

2015 Political Compass - http://www.politicalcompass.org/canada2015

- The Canadian Greens actually fall slightly to the right and on the authoritarian side in Canada, a real oddity since most greens tend to be more left wing then the major left-of-centre parties
- The Bloq would be considered the most Centrist of all the parties, almost falling in the dead middle but just slightly Left and Libertarian in their views...
- The Liberals like to campaign and call themselves centrist, but they are really a centre-right party, falling both under Right wing and Authoritarian. They are pretty similar in where they lay to the UK Labour party and the Aussie Labor party... how far have those parties drifted eh
- The NDP is still Social Democratic, progressive albeit less Socialist. They are still Left and Libertarian, best example is just a slightly more centrist Plaid Cymru.

[Hatman 🍁]

As someone without much knowledge on Canada police car can someone tell me the parties from most to least conservqtive?

I'm assuming you mean "Canadian politics", and though I might not be the most knowledgable, I could certainly fill you in.

Most conservative:
Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) - standard right-wing party, perhaps not as right-wing as the US Republicans but to the right of European conservatives, has held power since 2006 but did not win a majority in Parliament until 2011 (after another election produced another minority Conservative government in 2008), currently polling about 10 points lower than its 2011 totals, definitely feeling the pressure of "Harper fatigue" after nearly 10 years in power.
Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) - centrist "natural governing party", has ruled Canada for most of its independent history, most recently having won an election in 2004 (albeit with a minority government), currently the 3rd party after the rise of the NDP in 2011 and appears poised to maintain that position, but with significant gains.
New Democratic Party (NDP) - center-left to left-wing social democrats, historically the 3rd party but rose to Official Opposition in 2011 after riding the "orange wave", currently leading the polls and poised to become the largest party in Parliament for the first time in history.
Bloc Quebecois (BQ) - socialist party advocating independence for Quebec, previously held most Quebec seats in Parliament but was reduced to just 4 in 2011 (thanks to the orange wave), and inner turmoil since 2011 and tiredness with the separatist cause in general appears set to demolish the party once and for all.
Green Party - standard greenies, probably going to keep their 1 seat in BC but not expand much elsewhere.
Least Conservative

If anyone more well-versed notices any mistakes or such please feel free to correct me.

2015 Political Compass - http://www.politicalcompass.org/canada2015

- The Canadian Greens actually fall slightly to the right and on the authoritarian side in Canada, a real oddity since most greens tend to be more left wing then the major left-of-centre parties
- The Bloq would be considered the most Centrist of all the parties, almost falling in the dead middle but just slightly Left and Libertarian in their views...
- The Liberals like to campaign and call themselves centrist, but they are really a centre-right party, falling both under Right wing and Authoritarian. They are pretty similar in where they lay to the UK Labour party and the Aussie Labor party... how far have those parties drifted eh
- The NDP is still Social Democratic, progressive albeit less Socialist. They are still Left and Libertarian, best example is just a slightly more centrist Plaid Cymru.

That website loves to put as many parties as possible in the top right corner. I'm surprised they still have the NDP in the lower left (albeit barely).

[136or142]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I disagree with this for several reasons
1.In regards specifically to the Liberals it leaves out that that party has on economics both the left leaning Red Liberals and the right leaning Blue Liberals.

More generally though,  I'd say there are three problems:
1.This analysis leaves out the ever increasing roll the leader plays.  The political views of the political party in question are more or less the views of the leader.  It may be argued that the leader's positions reflects the views of the membership, but in the case of both Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau, I'd argue that their policy positions were secondary considerations for most of the people that voted for them. That said, no doubt in order to keep their party in line, they have adopted a number of political positions that most of the members of their respective parties support.

2.While I would agree that the 'little guy' Jean Chretien governed more on the right than expected, I'd also argue that the multi millionaire Paul Martin governed more on the left than was expected.  The main reason for this is that Chretien got elected in a situation where Canada was nearly bankrupt, and so had to adopt major cuts in spending and then later faced security concerns following September 11.  In contrast, the short lived Martin government was flush with cash and could 'reinvest' billions of dollars.

So, what that analysis leaves out is that the policy of the government is often driven by the situations they are facing.

3.Finally, there are even some serious political commentators who argue that even the Harper government has been largely liberal, especially in economics.  The basic point here is that governments of all stripes pass many laws that deal with every file imaginable.  Some of the laws all governments pass would be considered to be on the left, and some would be considered to be on the right. So, anybody who wants to cherry pick those laws can argue convincingly that any government is both on the left and the right.  I don't know if politicalcompass did that, however.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lol PC is as always a ludicrous failure of a website.

[Krago]

The Liberals campaign left and govern right.
The NDP campaigns left and governs incompetently.

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking of which: Justin said that C-51 is a great example of the rights/freedoms balance that Canadians expect.

[Linus Van Pelt]

A new Insights West poll of B.C. - 41/24/21/12

subsamples (not clear what the margin of error is on these):
Metro Vancouver - 43/25/23/8
Vancouver Island - 39/33/15/15
Rest of BC - 37/26/25/11

http://www.insightswest.com/news/british-columbians-moving-away-from-conservatives-in-canadian-campaign/

[136or142]

The Liberals campaign left and govern right.
The NDP campaigns left and governs incompetently.

How do the CONS campaign and govern?  I'd say they campaign with fear and govern with corruption.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

A new Insights West poll of B.C. - 41/24/21/12

subsamples (not clear what the margin of error is on these):
Metro Vancouver - 43/25/23/8
Vancouver Island - 39/33/15/15
Rest of BC - 37/26/25/11

http://www.insightswest.com/news/british-columbians-moving-away-from-conservatives-in-canadian-campaign/

Biggg rise for Green Party on Vancouver island!! May win a few more seats if poll is correct.

[DC Al Fine]

I took a look at the "Where the leaders are map" to see what Gilles Duceppe is doing. He's spending 90% of his time in East Island Montreal or the Gaspesie, including half a dozen events in his own riding.

I note that he hasn't gone to Plamondon's riding yet, so perhaps he thinks they have things sewn up there.

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau accuses Mulcair of 'austerity'.