Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Krago]

Trudeau accuses Mulcair of 'austerity'.

It looks like the Liberals are using the Kathleen Wynne playbook for sidelining the NDP in Ontario.

[lilTommy]

A new Insights West poll of B.C. - 41/24/21/12

subsamples (not clear what the margin of error is on these):
Metro Vancouver - 43/25/23/8
Vancouver Island - 39/33/15/15
Rest of BC - 37/26/25/11

http://www.insightswest.com/news/british-columbians-moving-away-from-conservatives-in-canadian-campaign/

Compared to May, I find it hard to believe the Green numbers/Vancouver Island numbers... it's just odd that the NDP has increase its support 6% in the province, yet on Vancouver Island the party has dropped 8%?
Metro Van the NDP is up 11% so that could be part of it... but I think the greens might be over-polling but I could be wrong, this is the place, of anywhere, where the greens can win...

[adma]

Wouldn't be surprised if May skews the VI Green tally upward a la the NDP's Harris/Stoffer/Godin in NL/NS/NB...

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens are not at 33% on Vancouver Island, folks. They are doing quite well there, yes, but not 33%. They won't even win Victoria.

[Krago]

So Hatman, when are going to see some of those sweet, sweet EKOS numbers?

[Zanas]

The Greens are not at 33% on Vancouver Island, folks. They are doing quite well there, yes, but not 33%. They won't even win Victoria.

Yeah, in Al's absence, I will be the one advising caution against small local sub-samples today.

[Hatman 🍁]

So Hatman, when are going to see some of those sweet, sweet EKOS numbers?

Friday, I believe.

The Greens are not at 33% on Vancouver Island, folks. They are doing quite well there, yes, but not 33%. They won't even win Victoria.

Yeah, in Al's absence, I will be the one advising caution against small local sub-samples today.

He is usually cautions us against constituency polling. Vancouver Island is a bit bigger than that. But yes, we should pay attention to sample sizes (a number mysteriously missing from their tables).

[lilTommy]

New AngusReid:
http://angusreid.org/federal-election-2015-august26/

NDP - 36% (-)
CPC - 32% (-1)
LPC - 23% (-)

Regions though:

BC
NDP - 37%
CPC - 32%
LPC - 22%

AB
NDP - 21%
CPC - 58%
LPC - 13%

SASK
NDP - 31%
CPC - 48%
LPC - 18%

MAN
NDP - 24%
CPC - 44%
LPC - 27%

ON
NDP - 35%
CPC - 33%
LPC - 28%

QUE
NDP - 51%
CPC - 14%
LPC - 17%
BC - 17%

ATL
NDP - 30%
CPC - 25%
LPC - 39%

[136or142]

Odd, the B.C numbers in that poll virtually mirror the national numbers. Who would ever have thought that B.C would represent the 'average Canadian' on anything?

[DC Al Fine]

That puts a damper on the Liberals recent numbers.

[RogueBeaver]

Ian MacDonald on Harper's tour goofs.

Grenier on tours.

Freeland making plenty of news: first Bathrobe Guy and then allegedly trying to borrow a cheap shot from Redford on attacking Hollett as childless.

Buried in this Justin puff piece is a marvellous Iggy quote: "He’s an actor, a professional politician who fully inhabits the role with a confidence that comes from having always known this was the role he was born to play."

[cp]

Great articles!

That line from Ignatieff puts me in mind of something Ronald Reagan said. When he was running for president in 1980 a reporter asked him "How can an actor run for President?" Reagan replied "How can a president not be an actor?"

[Hatman 🍁]

lol Forum:

NDP: 40
Lib: 30
Cons: 23

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/08/27/ndp-in-reach-of-majority-new-poll-suggests.html

[lilTommy]

Forum now has the NDP in Majority territory...
http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/08/27/ndp-in-reach-of-majority-new-poll-suggests.html

NDP - 40%
LPC - 30% - only the second poll I've seen the Liberals in second, CPC in third, and first this high
CPC - 23%

NDP Support:
QUE - 54%
MB/SK - 41% (seems like this is too high, I haven't yet seen a poll with the NDP leading in MB/SK combines, one poll earlier on had the NDP leading in SK)
BC - 39%
ON - 36%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1364/conservatives-tumble-to-third-place/

[lilTommy]

lol Forum:

NDP: 40
Lib: 30
Cons: 23

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/08/27/ndp-in-reach-of-majority-new-poll-suggests.html

Ya beat me!

[DL]

lol Forum:

NDP: 40
Lib: 30
Cons: 23

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/08/27/ndp-in-reach-of-majority-new-poll-suggests.html

I'll be curious to see what ekos has to say since their next poll is coming out tomorrow is also IVR and would have been in field right at the same time and Frank Graves has been hinting on Twitter that he is seeing "big changes" and that the Duffy trial is having an impact. I wouldn't be surprised if Ekos also has a big CPC drop

[Zanas]

NDP polling higher in MB/SK than in BC also strikes as a bit odd to say the least.

However, we've now seen a few polls with quite a surge for the NDP in Quebec, haven't we ? I think it's been 3 showing them over 50%. Would that make for a perfect sweep there ?

[lilTommy]

NDP polling higher in MB/SK than in BC also strikes as a bit odd to say the least.

However, we've now seen a few polls with quite a surge for the NDP in Quebec, haven't we ? I think it's been 3 showing them over 50%. Would that make for a perfect sweep there ?

... I'm not sure, maybe. Rural Quebec I can see almost all the CPC and definitely all the BQ riding's switch over NDP. I just can't see Mont-Royal ever going NDP (17% in 2011)... NDG-Westmount yes and even Papineau I could see sneak in NDP... I'm less sure on Bourassa, Saint-Laurent or Saint-Leonard--Saint-Michel. 

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP polling higher in MB/SK than in BC also strikes as a bit odd to say the least.

However, we've now seen a few polls with quite a surge for the NDP in Quebec, haven't we ? I think it's been 3 showing them over 50%. Would that make for a perfect sweep there ?

I can't see the NDP winning Beauce or Mount Royal. Saint-Laurent is probably safe too, as are some of the other Chaudiere-Appalache ridings.

[lilTommy]

NDP polling higher in MB/SK than in BC also strikes as a bit odd to say the least.

However, we've now seen a few polls with quite a surge for the NDP in Quebec, haven't we ? I think it's been 3 showing them over 50%. Would that make for a perfect sweep there ?

I can't see the NDP winning Beauce or Mount Royal. Saint-Laurent is probably safe too, as are some of the other Chaudiere-Appalache ridings.

Using re-distribution of the 2011 results thanks to http://www.votetogether.ca/
*Lévis—Lotbinière - NDP and CPC both at 40% (OK 39% and 38%)... first to go NDP
*Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis - CPC 10% ahead, but could be very close with the NDP polling numbers and a strong local candidate; the next to NDP
*Beauce - I think your right here, the CPC had a 21% lead
*Mégantic—L'Érable - Same as Beauce, CPC had a 23% lead

So in short; 4 are likely not to swing NDP even if the NDP poll 50%+... but never say never

[DL]

Keep in mind that Megantic-Erable was Christian Paradis's seat and he was very personally popular. Its possible that with him out of the picture - all bets are off

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Saskatchewan/Manitoba subsamples are always a bit dodgy because they are so small and because (of course) the two provinces are actually very different. This one doesn't smell worse than some of the others we've seen already.

[RogueBeaver]

Grits promise 3 years of deficits to double infrastructure spending.

[King of Kensington]

Don't these idiots realize that Canada is in no position to rescind the Iran deal? 

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/justin-trudeau-fundraiser-picketed-by-jewish-group-over-liberals-support-for-iran-nuclear-deal

[Hatman 🍁]

Keep in mind that Megantic-Erable was Christian Paradis's seat and he was very personally popular. Its possible that with him out of the picture - all bets are off

That's why Beauce is the safest Tory seat in Quebec.