Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Хahar 🤔]

The Beauce and thereabouts are historically friendly to right-wing parties, but it would be fallacious to act as though it were a Tory stronghold. It was barely a decade ago that the Liberals beat the Bloc by less than 2300 votes there while the Tories lagged behind at barely 17%. It would certainly go NDP in the right election.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Beauce and thereabouts are historically friendly to right-wing parties, but it would be fallacious to act as though it were a Tory stronghold. It was barely a decade ago that the Liberals beat the Bloc by less than 2300 votes there while the Tories lagged behind at barely 17%. It would certainly go NDP in the right election.

They're nationalists, so I can see them voting Bloc, but that doesn't mean they're open to voting for a social democratic federalist party. Maybe through osmosis they will vote NDP in the future, but not this election.

ETA: Also recall that the Liberal/BQ races were back when the right wing was split between the discredited Tories and the Francophobe Reform/Alliance.

[MaxQue]

Keep in mind that Megantic-Erable was Christian Paradis's seat and he was very personally popular. Its possible that with him out of the picture - all bets are off

And Megantic-Erable includes Mégantic, which I suppose are very upset towards Conservatives (remember, the downtown exploded due to very weak railroad regulations).

[Hash]

The Beauce and thereabouts are historically friendly to right-wing parties, but it would be fallacious to act as though it were a Tory stronghold. It was barely a decade ago that the Liberals beat the Bloc by less than 2300 votes there while the Tories lagged behind at barely 17%. It would certainly go NDP in the right election.

They're nationalists, so I can see them voting Bloc, but that doesn't mean they're open to voting for a social democratic federalist party. Maybe through osmosis they will vote NDP in the future, but not this election.

ETA: Also recall that the Liberal/BQ races were back when the right wing was split between the discredited Tories and the Francophobe Reform/Alliance.

The Beauce is the least nationalist Francophone region in the province.

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos: 33/30/29.

[136or142]

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In 1997 Liberal Claude Drouin was elected with nearly 50% of the vote and a nearly 2-1 win over the B.Q. In 2000, Drouin was reelected with 56% of the vote. In the 2004 election that was referenced above, the Conservative Party ran, not the P.C/Alliance Parties.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beauce_(electoral_district)

If the NDP end up at around 50% in Quebec and the Conservatives fall to around 13%, I could see Maxime Bernier losing.  It would be very close, but he could lose.

[136or142]

Ipsos: 33/30/29.

Interesting because Ipsos/Reid usually gets results that favor the Conservatives.

If polls continue to show similar results such as these, I wonder if it will decrease the incidence of strategic voting as people will think that even if the Conservatives win the most seats, they won't be able to form a government.

If that is the case, it would make sense for the Conservatives to not bring up the coalition thing or the 'party that wins the most seats is the only party entitled to form a government' lie, while it makes sense for the NDP to bring up the notion that the Liberals might back the Conservatives in power.

Despite correcting his recollections of the Beauce riding, I'd sincerely be most interested in hearing Hatman's take on this.

[adma]

Re Megantic-l'Erable: I think the NDP also had one of their more conspicuously paper-ish 2011 candidates there, too--presumably the present contender is a touch more solid.  And really, given the resource-based economic history of Thetford Mines, why *shouldn't* the NDP be competitive here?

[MaxQue]

Re Megantic-l'Erable: I think the NDP also had one of their more conspicuously paper-ish 2011 candidates there, too--presumably the present contender is a touch more solid.  And really, given the resource-based economic history of Thetford Mines, why *shouldn't* the NDP be competitive here?

There was huge changes there too. Last time, Conservatives were the only party not wanting to ban asbestos sales to foreign countries and international efforts to ban it, which surely helped them.

They dropped that idea recently, as the last effort to save the asbestos industry failed (and, so, there is no more asbestos mining in Thetford at all).

Thetford came to the conclusion it's dead and it won't come back.

[jaichind]

lol Forum:

NDP: 40
Lib: 30
Cons: 23

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/08/27/ndp-in-reach-of-majority-new-poll-suggests.html

Looks like an outlier.  But if not then it looks Cons are heading for a meltdown like 1993 PC.

[DL]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In 1997 Liberal Claude Drouin was elected with nearly 50% of the vote and a nearly 2-1 win over the B.Q. In 2000, Drouin was reelected with 56% of the vote. In the 2004 election that was referenced above, the Conservative Party ran, not the P.C/Alliance Parties.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beauce_(electoral_district)

If the NDP end up at around 50% in Quebec and the Conservatives fall to around 13%, I could see Maxime Bernier losing.  It would be very close, but he could lose.

Interestingly Beauce is also the home county of the first big name in the NDP Robert Cliche. Cliche was a lawyer in Beauce who led the NDP in Quebec in the 60s and was very respected. He ran in Beauce in 1965 and had the second best NDP result in the province and was a strong second to a Social Credit incumbent. He ran in Laval in 1968 and lost very narrowly. Some think if cliche had won in '68 he would have been the next federal leader of the NDP. He was named a judge and headed up the high profile Cliche Commission into corruption in unions in Quebec and his co- commissioner was a young lawyer named Brian Mulroney. Today there are monuments and public buildings named after Robert Cliche all over Beauce

[136or142]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In 1997 Liberal Claude Drouin was elected with nearly 50% of the vote and a nearly 2-1 win over the B.Q. In 2000, Drouin was reelected with 56% of the vote. In the 2004 election that was referenced above, the Conservative Party ran, not the P.C/Alliance Parties.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beauce_(electoral_district)

If the NDP end up at around 50% in Quebec and the Conservatives fall to around 13%, I could see Maxime Bernier losing.  It would be very close, but he could lose.

Interestingly Beauce is also the home county of the first big name in the NDP Robert Cliche. Cliche was a lawyer in Beauce who led the NDP in Quebec in the 60s and was very respected. He ran in Beauce in 1965 and had the second best NDP result in the province and was a strong second to a Social Credit incumbent. He ran in Laval in 1968 and lost very narrowly. Some think if cliche had won in '68 he would have been the next federal leader of the NDP. He was named a judge and headed up the high profile Cliche Commission into corruption in unions in Quebec and his co- commissioner was a young lawyer named Brian Mulroney. Today there are monuments and public buildings named after Robert Cliche all over Beauce

Yes, I posted this on another thread in this board sometime ago.  There were at least two other high profile candidates for the NDP in either 1965 or 1968 (maybe one in each) Laurier LaPierre from This Hour Has Seven Days and Charles Taylor, the famous philosopher who much later was the head of the commission that led to the bans on certain types of women's outfits proposed by the then P.Q government (which was exactly the opposite of what Taylor recommended.)

Charles Taylor ended up running against Pierre Trudeau in Westmount as Trudeau was recruited by the Liberals in part to stop Taylor from winning.  My dad lived in Westmount at that time and voted for Taylor, but Trudeau won handily. Renowned economist Eric Kierans was also recruited to run against Robert Cliche in 1968 though Kierans did run for the Liberal Party leadership in 1968 before that. Ironically, after Kierans was no longer in Parliament he left the Liberals and joined the NDP.

As far as I can tell, the Liberals did not taking LaPierre's candidacy seriously and he also lost handily.

[DC Al Fine]

Before we start getting excited about trends, I note that the only company that has shown movement outside the margin of error is Forum of lol Forum fame.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ipsos: 33/30/29.

Interesting because Ipsos/Reid usually gets results that favor the Conservatives.

If polls continue to show similar results such as these, I wonder if it will decrease the incidence of strategic voting as people will think that even if the Conservatives win the most seats, they won't be able to form a government.

If that is the case, it would make sense for the Conservatives to not bring up the coalition thing or the 'party that wins the most seats is the only party entitled to form a government' lie, while it makes sense for the NDP to bring up the notion that the Liberals might back the Conservatives in power.

Despite correcting his recollections of the Beauce riding, I'd sincerely be most interested in hearing Hatman's take on this.

I'm still wrapping my brain around the implications of the Conservatives being in third place. I'm not so sure they are yet, but they are at least in a statistical tie with the Liberals.

It seems that east of Ontario, the Tory decline is helping the NDP, while west of Ontario it is going to the Liberals.

[toaster]

The Liberals in 2nd could be terrible news for the NDP.

[DL]

Charles Taylor ended up running against Pierre Trudeau in Westmount as Trudeau was recruited by the Liberals in part to stop Taylor from winning.  My dad lived in Westmount at that time and voted for Taylor, but Trudeau won handily. Renowned economist Eric Kierans was also recruited to run against Robert Cliche in 1968 though Kierans did run for the Liberal Party leadership in 1968 before that. Ironically, after Kierans was no longer in Parliament he left the Liberals and joined the NDP.

As far as I can tell, the Liberals did not taking LaPierre's candidacy seriously and he also lost handily.

Not quite right. Trudeau and Taylor never ran in Westmount. They ran against each other in Mount Royal - which in the 60s included all of the present day riding of Mount Royal plus the western half of what is now Papineau. The guy who really came close to creating an NDP breakthrough in Quebec was CG "Giff" Gifford and RCAF fighter pilot and professor who came close to winning NDG in 1965.

In 1968, the NDP ran a bit of an all-star team in Quebec: Cliche in Duvernay (in Laval), Taylor in Dollard, Lapierre in Lachine-Lakeshore, Gifford in NDG - but they were all swept away by Trudeaumania. If the Liberals had picked anyone but Trudeau as their leader in 1968 - the NDP likely would have had a major breakthrough in Quebec that year and might have even had an "orange crush" 43 years earlier!

[lilTommy]

Ekos now
http://ipolitics.ca/2015/08/28/ekos-poll-duffy-awakening-slumbering-electorate/

NDP: 33.6%
CPC: 28.1%
LPC: 26.7%

[Boston Bread]

NDP is at 33.6 not 36.6 in the EKOS poll.

[emcee0]

The Liberals in 2nd could be terrible news for the NDP.

What makes you say that?

[lilTommy]

NDP is at 33.6 not 36.6 in the EKOS poll.

Oops, my bad. Corrected, thanks!

[cp]

Ipsos: 33/30/29.

Interesting because Ipsos/Reid usually gets results that favor the Conservatives.

If polls continue to show similar results such as these, I wonder if it will decrease the incidence of strategic voting as people will think that even if the Conservatives win the most seats, they won't be able to form a government.

If that is the case, it would make sense for the Conservatives to not bring up the coalition thing or the 'party that wins the most seats is the only party entitled to form a government' lie, while it makes sense for the NDP to bring up the notion that the Liberals might back the Conservatives in power.

Despite correcting his recollections of the Beauce riding, I'd sincerely be most interested in hearing Hatman's take on this.

I'm still wrapping my brain around the implications of the Conservatives being in third place. I'm not so sure they are yet, but they are at least in a statistical tie with the Liberals.

It seems that east of Ontario, the Tory decline is helping the NDP, while west of Ontario it is going to the Liberals.

Funny, you would think it would be the opposite of that given historical voting patterns.

Seems to me, too, that despite the wide spread of specific numbers all the pollsters agree the NDP is in first place, the Tories are not, and the Liberals are competitive (relatively).

[DC Al Fine]

Does this campaign seem more trivial than 2011? It seems like every other day on CBC there is a story about the memes some event has generated.

[136or142]

Charles Taylor ended up running against Pierre Trudeau in Westmount as Trudeau was recruited by the Liberals in part to stop Taylor from winning.  My dad lived in Westmount at that time and voted for Taylor, but Trudeau won handily. Renowned economist Eric Kierans was also recruited to run against Robert Cliche in 1968 though Kierans did run for the Liberal Party leadership in 1968 before that. Ironically, after Kierans was no longer in Parliament he left the Liberals and joined the NDP.

As far as I can tell, the Liberals did not taking LaPierre's candidacy seriously and he also lost handily.

Not quite right. Trudeau and Taylor never ran in Westmount. They ran against each other in Mount Royal - which in the 60s included all of the present day riding of Mount Royal plus the western half of what is now Papineau. The guy who really came close to creating an NDP breakthrough in Quebec was CG "Giff" Gifford and RCAF fighter pilot and professor who came close to winning NDG in 1965.

In 1968, the NDP ran a bit of an all-star team in Quebec: Cliche in Duvernay (in Laval), Taylor in Dollard, Lapierre in Lachine-Lakeshore, Gifford in NDG - but they were all swept away by Trudeaumania. If the Liberals had picked anyone but Trudeau as their leader in 1968 - the NDP likely would have had a major breakthrough in Quebec that year and might have even had an "orange crush" 43 years earlier!

Oh sorry, I knew a 'Mount' was in there.  My dad did live in Mount Royal, and he did vote for Charles Taylor.   I'd never heard of Gifford before. 

Did the NDP ever have a chance in Quebec after the 1968 election and before the 1988 election?  The only candidate I know of who did even remotely well in Quebec was Jean Paul Harney (or John Harney as he was called in Ontario) in the 1984 election when he got nearly 20% of the vote in Gaspe in 1984.

I'm pretty sure my dad and everybody else in my family moved away from Quebec sometime before the 1972 Federal election.  Like a lot of Quebec Anglophones they were spooked by the October Crisis.

[DC Al Fine]

Did the NDP ever have a chance in Quebec after the 1968 election and before the 1988 election?  The only candidate I know of who did even remotely well in Quebec was Jean Paul Harney (or John Harney as he was called in Ontario) in the 1984 election when he got nearly 20% of the vote in Gaspe in 1984.

Duncan Graham almost beat a Socred in 1972 in Compton.

[136or142]

Did the NDP ever have a chance in Quebec after the 1968 election and before the 1988 election?  The only candidate I know of who did even remotely well in Quebec was Jean Paul Harney (or John Harney as he was called in Ontario) in the 1984 election when he got nearly 20% of the vote in Gaspe in 1984.

Duncan Graham almost beat a Socred in 1972 in Compton.

I've never heard of him before either.  I knew a guy who ran for the NDP in Quebec in either the 1979 or the 1980 federal election.  He later moved here to Richmond B.C.  I forget his name, but I can probably find it if you're interested.  He was also an anglophone, though, as a New Democrat, he was very sympathetic to the Quiet Revolution, if not quiet to the nationalists. He also supported Bill 101 in principle, he just wished that there had been more time given for the English speaking population to adjust.