Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[136or142]

This is the only thing on the internet I can find about Duncan Graham:
http://www.parl.gc.ca/About/Parliament/FederalRidingsHistory/hfer.asp?Include=Y&Language=E&rid=158&Search=Det

When he ran again in 1974 he fell to just 3% of the vote!

[Vosem]

Did the NDP ever have a chance in Quebec after the 1968 election and before the 1988 election?  The only candidate I know of who did even remotely well in Quebec was Jean Paul Harney (or John Harney as he was called in Ontario) in the 1984 election when he got nearly 20% of the vote in Gaspe in 1984.

Duncan Graham almost beat a Socred in 1972 in Compton.

Can you tell us any details about that campaign, DC? Because it seems like a very weird result. The NDP got 3% in the riding in 1968, then ran Graham in 1972, got 29%, then ran Graham again in 1974 and fell back to 3%. Why did Graham have the singular good performance?

[136or142]

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I'll bet it's because he gave out graham crackers in that election

The name of the guy I knew is Buff Norman.  He ran for the NDP in Lachine in both 1979 and 1980.

31   1979/05/22   NORMAN, Buff   N.D.P.   LACHINE
32   1980/02/18   NORMAN, Buff   N.D.P.   LACHINE

http://www.parl.gc.ca/About/Parliament/FederalRidingsHistory/hfer.asp?Language=E&Search=Cres&canName=&canParty=67&ridProvince=10&ridName=&submit1=Search

He was a very smart guy. I believe he owned a boat repair business or something like that in Quebec.

[DL]

This is the only thing on the internet I can find about Duncan Graham:
http://www.parl.gc.ca/About/Parliament/FederalRidingsHistory/hfer.asp?Include=Y&Language=E&rid=158&Search=Det

When he ran again in 1974 he fell to just 3% of the vote!

I'm pretty sure that is a typo in the database and he got no where near that many votes. Notice that if you add up the number of votes cast in Compton in 1968, 1972 and 1974 - in 1972 there are about 10,000 extra votes!

[Krago]

Here are the top three NDP finishes in Quebec for every federal election in Quebec (1962-2011):

1962
OUTREMONT--ST-JEAN  --  CASGRAIN, Thérèse-F.   (20.02%)
MAISONNEUVE--ROSEMONT  --  DAOUST, Fernand   (16.20%)
SAINT-JEAN--IBERVILLE--NAPIERVILLE  --  ROY, Fernand   (15.08%)

1963
MAISONNEUVE--ROSEMONT  --  DAOUST, Fernand   (18.51%)
OUTREMONT--ST-JEAN  --  CASGRAIN, Thérèse-F.   (17.99%)
MOUNT ROYAL  --  TAYLOR, Charles   (16.55%)

1965
NOTRE-DAME-DE-GRÂCE  --  GIFFORD, C.G.   (32.52%)
MOUNT ROYAL  --  TAYLOR, Charles   (29.60%)
BEAUCE  --  CLICHE, Robert   (29.44%)

1968
DUVERNAY  --  CLICHE, Robert   (43.85%)
DOLLARD  --  TAYLOR, Charles   (22.16%)
NOTRE-DAME-DE-GRÂCE  --  GIFFORD, C.G.   (20.04%)

1972
HOCHELAGA  --  LALIBERTÉ, Raymond-Gérard   (17.82%)
AHUNTSIC  --  DE BELLEFEUILLE, Pierre   (16.73%)
OUTREMONT  --  GAUTRIN, Henri-François   (15.98%)

1974
LOUIS-HÉBERT  --  STANTON, Françoise Gamache   (14.32%)
MANICOUAGAN  --  PERRON, Raymond   (13.45%)
LONGUEUIL  --  GAUTRIN, Henri-François   (12.78%)

1979
HULL  --  LÉGÈRE, Michel   (16.56%)
OUTREMONT  --  BRISSON, Claire A.   (10.33%)
LOUIS-HÉBERT  --  DAOUST, Jean   (10.12%)

1980
HULL  --  LÉGÈRE, Michel   (24.53%)
CHAMPLAIN  --  MATTE, René   (23.08%)
JONQUIÈRE  --  HUBERT, Jacques   (15.02%)

1984
HULL--AYLMER  --  AUDETTE, Jacques   (19.62%)
OUTREMONT  --  BEAUDIN, Johanne   (18.86%)
LÉVIS  --  HARNEY, Jean-Paul   (18.52%)

1988
TÉMISCAMINGUE  --  TRUDEL, Rémy   (37.84%)
CHAMBLY  --  EDMONSTON, Phil   (31.52%)
SAINT-MAURICE  --  ROMPRÉ, Claude   (30.12%)

1993
OUTREMONT  --  KALLOS, Catherine   (4.46%)
SAINT-HENRI--WESTMOUNT  --  ELBOURNE, Ann   (3.95%)
NOTRE-DAME-DE-GRÂCE  --  TOOMBS, Bruce   (3.50%)

1997
OUTREMONT  --  GOMBERG, Tooker   (6.44%)
WESTMOUNT--VILLE-MARIE  --  CARTER, Chris   (5.72%)
QUÉBEC  --  FISET, Jean-Marie   (4.59%)

2000
OUTREMONT  --  GRAEFE, Peter   (5.58%)
WESTMOUNT--VILLE-MARIE  --  BLOMME, Willy   (5.19%)
LAURIER--SAINTE-MARIE  --  CHARTIER, Richard   (4.75%)

2004
OUTREMONT  --  AKTOUF, Omar   (14.06%)
LAURIER  --  GRÉGOIRE, François   (12.08%)
WESTMOUNT--VILLE-MARIE  --  STEEDMAN, Eric Wilson   (11.99%)

2006
OUTREMONT  --  LAUZON, Léo-Paul   (17.20%)
LAURIER--SAINTE-MARIE  --  GRÉGOIRE, François   (16.68%)
HULL--AYLMER  --  LALIBERTÉ, Pierre   (15.49%)

2008
OUTREMONT  --  MULCAIR, Thomas   (39.53%)
GATINEAU  --  BOIVIN, Françoise   (26.13%)
WESTMOUNT--VILLE-MARIE  --  LAGACÉ DOWSON, Anne   (22.93%)

2011
GATINEAU  --  BOIVIN, Françoise   (61.83%)
HULL--AYLMER  --  TURMEL, Nycole   (59.20%)
OUTREMONT  --  MULCAIR, Thomas   (56.37%)

[Krago]

If at first...

1984  --  VERDUN--SAINT-PAUL   --  GIGUÈRE, Alain   (9.80%)
1993  --  ROBERVAL   --  GIGUÈRE, Alain   (1.49%)
1997  --  ROBERVAL   --  GIGUÈRE, Alain   (1.32%)
2000  --  ROBERVAL   --  GIGUÈRE, Alain   (1.42%)
2004  --  LAVAL   --  GIGUÈRE, Alain   (4.10%)
2006  --  LAVAL--LES ÎLES   --  GIGUÈRE, Alain   (7.20%)
2008  --  LAVAL   --  GIGUÈRE, Alain   (12.46%)
2011  --  MARC-AURÈLE-FORTIN   --  GIGUÈRE, Alain   (49.68%)

[Hatman 🍁]

This is the only thing on the internet I can find about Duncan Graham:
http://www.parl.gc.ca/About/Parliament/FederalRidingsHistory/hfer.asp?Include=Y&Language=E&rid=158&Search=Det

When he ran again in 1974 he fell to just 3% of the vote!

I'm pretty sure that is a typo in the database and he got no where near that many votes. Notice that if you add up the number of votes cast in Compton in 1968, 1972 and 1974 - in 1972 there are about 10,000 extra votes!

Yep, smells fishy to me too. That database is full of errors.

[DC Al Fine]

This is the only thing on the internet I can find about Duncan Graham:
http://www.parl.gc.ca/About/Parliament/FederalRidingsHistory/hfer.asp?Include=Y&Language=E&rid=158&Search=Det

When he ran again in 1974 he fell to just 3% of the vote!

I'm pretty sure that is a typo in the database and he got no where near that many votes. Notice that if you add up the number of votes cast in Compton in 1968, 1972 and 1974 - in 1972 there are about 10,000 extra votes!

Yep, smells fishy to me too. That database is full of errors.

If he got 982 votes instead of 10982, he would have received about 3-4%of the vote which would be typical for the NDP at the time.

[adma]

Worth noting for those who advance the myth that Mulcair conquered a "no-hope" riding in his byelection that Outremont was the NDP's best QC seat for 5 consecutive federal elections before that...

[DC Al Fine]

Worth noting for those who advance the myth that Mulcair conquered a "no-hope" riding in his byelection that Outremont was the NDP's best QC seat for 5 consecutive federal elections before that...

It was still 17% of the vote pre-Mulcair and pre-Orange Crush. Would it have been anywhere near an NDP target list had Mulcair not been on the ballot?

[Hatman 🍁]

Worth noting for those who advance the myth that Mulcair conquered a "no-hope" riding in his byelection that Outremont was the NDP's best QC seat for 5 consecutive federal elections before that...

Except as you can see, the NDP had never won a seat before in Quebec, outside of a by-election in 1990.

Of course, Outremont was their best shot at winning a seat, but a long shot at that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Except that it's Canada. And not just Canada but Quebec.

[adma]

It was still 17% of the vote pre-Mulcair and pre-Orange Crush. Would it have been anywhere near an NDP target list had Mulcair not been on the ballot?

My point being: "if not there, then *where*?".  That is, Outremont had already established itself as the NDP's Quebec "gateway seat"-in-waiting--otherwise, they might as well have forgotten about QC altogether.

So, maybe your question should be augmented to include "would it have been anywhere near an NDP target list were it not in Quebec".

[Hatman 🍁]

I took the vote compass: https://votecompass.cbc.ca/

It put me between the Liberals and the NDP, but I got:

Greens: 72%
Liberal: 71%
NDP: 67%
Conservatives: 49%

Junk compass!

[cp]

Ooh, these are fun! My results:

Green: 83%
NDP: 77%
Liberal:71%
Conservative: 36%

Not really a surprise, I guess, though I imagined I would be more NDP/Liberal and less Green this time around.

[Barnes]

These are always fun.  I played as a citizen of Quebec for fun, and because I adore that part of Canada.

Liberals: 81%
Green: 79%
NDP: 77%
Bloc: 63%
Conservatives: 49%

All in all, about where I would put myself.  The percentage with the Bloc is a bit amusing seeing as I'm a pretty committed federalist!

EDIT: Accidentally voted the wrong way on the question about government worker strike action - fixed the results now.

[Boston Bread]

NDP: 83%
Green: 81%
Liberal: 72%
Conservatives: 43%

Odd that political compass thinks Greens are to the right of NDP and vote compass to the left. The NDP's position looks unfortunately crowded.

[Krago]

My favourite CBC Vote Compass story was that someone voted 'Don't know' to every question and it told them to vote Liberal.

[Hatman 🍁]

My favourite CBC Vote Compass story was that someone voted 'Don't know' to every question and it told them to vote Liberal.

This makes perfect sense, if you think about it.

[DC Al Fine]

Con: 71%
Lib: 48%
NDP: 30%
Green: 28%

[Holmes]

NDP: 79%
Green: 77%
LPC: 74%
CPC: 31%

[the506]

Right in the mushy middle:

NDP - 57
Liberal - 56
Conservative - 53
Green - 48

[politicallefty]

Green: 83%
NDP: 77%
Liberal: 66%
Conservative: 33%

If I lived in Elizabeth May's riding, I'd probably vote for her. Otherwise, I wouldn't really consider the Green Party. In most ridings, I'd vote NDP, except for seats where the contest is between the Liberals and Conservatives and no one else has a chance (in which case I'd vote Liberal).

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I will be ordering a special ballot for Mississauga—Lakeshore since my vote will be wasted in Vancouver Centre. Is that bad? I mean, I do feel like Mississauga is more my home than here, and I actually know Stella Ambler and care about local issues back home (not that local issues really matter in an election that's basically just about Harper fatigue, but still). I just kinda feel bad. But I guess when you have two homes it's your prerogative to choose where you vote.

[Holmes]

Vancouver Centre has the possibility of being a close race, especially if the NDP is 15-20% ahead in BC on election day. I'll be requesting a special ballot for Timmins-James Bay since I'm living in California now.