Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)
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  Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)
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Author Topic: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)  (Read 233021 times)
136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #450 on: September 02, 2015, 08:05:51 AM »
« edited: September 02, 2015, 08:07:51 AM by Adam T »

Email I sent to factscan.ca

Your site says that you are transparent.  I don't doubt that your site is impartial and makes the best effort at being correct and honest, but I think transparency includes open comment, not merely allowing people to send comments on your fact check articles to the editors.

For example, I'd say this post is misleading: http://factscan.ca/justin-trudeau-by-denying-climate-change-stephen-harper-denied-canadians-opportunity/

While the Harper government has done a few things on climate change, he has put off full action until 2100 (I know that is misleading in and of itself, as I'd certainly expect that interim steps would be taken, but the 2100 date does allow this government to not do anything meaningful until the end of their term.)  Harper himself lies that a carbon tax would do nothing and lies in calling it a 'tax on everything' (I guess that's a lie as I actually haven't really got a clue what that nonsensical talking point is supposed to mean). As a supposed economist, Harper clearly knows that carbon taxes would impact the supply and demand curves and also should  know that, if any tax is, it's the income tax that is the closest to being a 'tax on everything.'  As a supposed economist Harper should also know that nearly every real economist agrees that carbon pricing (and pollution pricing in general) are by far the most efficient way to reduce carbon emissions.  So, Harper again knows that he is lying when he says that regulations are the best way.

So, given that the Conservative government has done virtually nothing to address AGW, I think it's pretty obvious that Harper himself still believes that efforts to address climate change are a 'socialist scheme' and his comments that admit the reality of global warming are just empty words.

I haven't looked over too many of the other fact checking posts on your site, but I have to say, if your writers take all the words of the politicians at face value, as your quotations of Harper there clearly do, then I think your site is pretty much worthless.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #451 on: September 02, 2015, 10:26:43 AM »

More importantly, it overlooks that when Dion got 26% of the vote in 2008, it wasn't a 3 way race.  If the Liberals got 26% of the vote this time, they'd probably win 100 seats.

And on *28%* of the vote in 1984, John Turner got 40 seats.

Yeah, the thing about FPTP is that votes don't translate into seats in a predictable manner. Particularly in a country as inherently ramshackle (no offence) as Canada.
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Krago
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« Reply #452 on: September 02, 2015, 12:24:02 PM »

More importantly, it overlooks that when Dion got 26% of the vote in 2008, it wasn't a 3 way race.  If the Liberals got 26% of the vote this time, they'd probably win 100 seats.

And on *28%* of the vote in 1984, John Turner got 40 seats.

Yeah, the thing about FPTP is that votes don't translate into seats in a predictable manner. Particularly in a country as inherently ramshackle (no offence) as Canada.

The closest three-way race in Canadian provincial elections (by popular vote) was Nova Scotia 2003, though the PCs won a clear majority of seats.

PC 36.3% Lib 31.5% NDP 31.0%
PC 30 Lib 11 NDP 11

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Vosem
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« Reply #453 on: September 02, 2015, 02:52:07 PM »

More importantly, it overlooks that when Dion got 26% of the vote in 2008, it wasn't a 3 way race.  If the Liberals got 26% of the vote this time, they'd probably win 100 seats.

And on *28%* of the vote in 1984, John Turner got 40 seats.

Yeah, the thing about FPTP is that votes don't translate into seats in a predictable manner. Particularly in a country as inherently ramshackle (no offence) as Canada.

The closest three-way race in Canadian provincial elections (by popular vote) was Nova Scotia 2003, though the PCs won a clear majority of seats.

PC 36.3% Lib 31.5% NDP 31.0%
PC 30 Lib 11 NDP 11

PC-30 Lib-11 NDP-11 is actually the result of the NS 1999 election, where the PCs won the popular vote 39%-30%-30%. The result from 2003 is actually PC-25 NDP-15 Lib-12, so a minority government was won on those numbers.
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DL
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« Reply #454 on: September 02, 2015, 04:30:15 PM »

A riding poll is out in Laurier-Ste. Marie that has horrifically bad news for Gilled Duceppe the leader of the BQ.

Helene Laverdiere NDP - 57%
Gilles Duceppe BQ - 20%
Poirier Liberal - 15%

http://tvanouvelles.ca/lcn/infos/national/archives/2015/09/20150902-155418.html
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #455 on: September 02, 2015, 04:36:30 PM »

A riding poll is out in Laurier-Ste. Marie that has horrifically bad news for Gilled Duceppe the leader of the BQ.

Helene Laverdiere NDP - 57%
Gilles Duceppe BQ - 20%
Poirier Liberal - 15%

http://tvanouvelles.ca/lcn/infos/national/archives/2015/09/20150902-155418.html

Wow. Barring Plamondon winning as a quasi-independent, it looks like the Bloc are goners.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #456 on: September 02, 2015, 04:52:05 PM »

Internal, but yeah, he'll lose badly.
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adma
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« Reply #457 on: September 02, 2015, 07:34:06 PM »

The closest three-way race in Canadian provincial elections (by popular vote) was Nova Scotia 2003, though the PCs won a clear majority of seats.

PC 36.3% Lib 31.5% NDP 31.0%
PC 30 Lib 11 NDP 11

Yeah, interesting it was a marginally narrower popular-vote gap btw/ the *three* parties than 1998.

But what about Quebec in 2007 (Lib 33.08, ADQ 30.84, PQ 28.35) and 2012 (PQ 31.95, Lib 31.20, CAQ 27.05)?
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DL
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« Reply #458 on: September 02, 2015, 07:59:23 PM »

There have been some close three way contests in Ontario as well. Ontario 1975

Popular vote was: PCs 36%, Liberals 34% and NDP 29% but in seats it was PCs 51, NDP 38 and Libs 36

Then in 1977

 Popular vote was: PCs 38%, Liberals 32% and NDP 28% but in seats it was PCs 58, Liberals 34 and and NDP 33
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #459 on: September 02, 2015, 08:46:41 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2015, 08:56:16 PM by RogueBeaver »

Ivison on the battle for "promiscuous progressives", to use Graves' term.

Ontario 1943: PC 36 CCF 32 OLP 31, but 38/34/15 in seats.
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DL
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« Reply #460 on: September 02, 2015, 09:41:07 PM »

Notice that when its a three way split in Ontario - its the Liberals who get burned by FPTP because their supportr is so spread out
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #461 on: September 03, 2015, 06:58:10 AM »

Notice that when its a three way split in Ontario - its the Liberals who get burned by FPTP because their supportr is so spread out

Yes, because nothing has changed in the last 70 years Wink
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lilTommy
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« Reply #462 on: September 03, 2015, 07:30:13 AM »

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/09/02/voters-may-be-in-store-for-few-big-ticket-promises-in-last-six-weeks-of-campaign_n_8079442.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics

Something Interesting, no fully costed platforms yet but looking at what as been announced:

CPC - no real new anything, could be produce a $30M surplus year one, no new revenue sources could erode all of that though
NPD - $9M deficit year one, but that is not including the corp tax cut increase or rolling back the subsidies, depending on the increase and roll out, NDP could balance the budget as well
LPC - Deficits till 2019, no new revenue sources (the tax increase on the wealthy is offset by the tax cut to the middle/lower upper class incomes)

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #463 on: September 03, 2015, 07:52:46 AM »

Alexander suspends his campaign to focus on ministerial work.
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cp
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« Reply #464 on: September 03, 2015, 08:18:28 AM »

Not coincidentally, Alexander makes a fool of himself in TV interview
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #465 on: September 03, 2015, 09:32:25 AM »

Might as well, he's not going to win anyways.
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DL
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« Reply #466 on: September 03, 2015, 09:36:31 AM »

Notice that when its a three way split in Ontario - its the Liberals who get burned by FPTP because their supportr is so spread out

Yes, because nothing has changed in the last 70 years Wink

You don't have to go back 70 years - look at how in 1975 the Ontario Liberals took 34% of the vote and got 36 seats while the Ontario NDP got 38 seats with just 29%.

Also in the 2011 federal election in Ontario the NDP took 25.8% of the vote and the Liberals took 25.3% - but in seats the NDP got 22 seats and the Liberals just 11 seats.

The Liberal vote in ontario is very efficient when it is at high levels but it quickly becomes very ineffecient at lower levels...particular when the gap between Liberals and NDP gets into low single digits or negative
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #467 on: September 03, 2015, 01:38:53 PM »
« Edited: September 03, 2015, 01:42:00 PM by Adam T »

Notice that when its a three way split in Ontario - its the Liberals who get burned by FPTP because their supportr is so spread out

Yes, because nothing has changed in the last 70 years Wink

You don't have to go back 70 years - look at how in 1975 the Ontario Liberals took 34% of the vote and got 36 seats while the Ontario NDP got 38 seats with just 29%.

Also in the 2011 federal election in Ontario the NDP took 25.8% of the vote and the Liberals took 25.3% - but in seats the NDP got 22 seats and the Liberals just 11 seats.

The Liberal vote in ontario is very efficient when it is at high levels but it quickly becomes very ineffecient at lower levels...particular when the gap between Liberals and NDP gets into low single digits or negative

1975 was more recent but the politics of the Ontario Liberal Party were still completely different then than now.  At that time, the Liberal Party was the most right wing party, and was largely rural based,  in contrast to the centrist Progressive Conservatives under Bill Davis.

So, I don't think that even though this is more recent that it's necessarily reflective of where things are today.

That said, I agree that at least provincially, the Liberal vote is likely the least efficient of the three parties as they are the most competitive party over most of the province, the only areas where they have little support are the rural ridings of Eastern Ontario mostly near Ottawa and the 'cottage country' directly but well north of Toronto.

Of course, even in the rural ridings of Eastern Ontario, federally Don Boudria made his riding of Glengary-Prescott-Russel  a personal fiefdom for many years, but more recently his Liberal successors have been unable to resist the more general regional trends.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #468 on: September 03, 2015, 04:06:15 PM »

Peter Pensahue is running for the Tories in Labrador

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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #469 on: September 03, 2015, 04:12:28 PM »


LOL
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #470 on: September 03, 2015, 04:15:11 PM »


I guess Mr Peanut wasn't available.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #471 on: September 03, 2015, 04:51:07 PM »

It's a northern riding so, I guess the Tory strategists think his base will turn out for him no matter what. Not that I think it will matter if they run him or some staffer, but I can see the logic.

It would be ridiculous though if Penashue's local base and an NDP surge in Atlantic Canada result in him squeaking in Tongue
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #472 on: September 03, 2015, 04:52:36 PM »

As the new head of the Procrastinator Party (I'm also the only member) I just want to announce we will be holding our first nomination for the upcoming election on October 20, 2015.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #473 on: September 03, 2015, 05:08:37 PM »

To make up for the last post silliness (obviously our first nomination will be on October 20, 2016), according to the wiki candidates page: these are the numbers of candidates nominated so far by each of the three main parties by province:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_by_riding_of_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015

Newfoundland and Labrador
NDP: 7/7
Liberal 7/7
Conservative 3/7

Prince Edward Island:
NDP 4/4
Liberal 4/4
Conservative 4/4

Nova Scotia
NDP 10/11 (the one missing is because the candidate stepped down)
Liberal: 11/11
Conservative 11/11

New Brunswick
NDP 10/10
Liberal 10/10
Conservative 10/10

Quebec
NDP 78/78
Liberal 77/78
Conservative 70/78

Ontario
NDP 121/121
Liberal 121/121
Conservative 121/121

Manitoba
NDP 11/14
Liberal 14/14
Conservative 13/14

Saskatchewan
NDP 14/14
Liberal 13/14
Conservative 14/14

Alberta
NDP 34/34
Liberal 31/34
Conservative 34/34

B.C
NDP 42/42
Liberal 42/42
Conservative 42/42

Territories
NDP 3/3
Liberal 3/3
Conservative 3/3

Total
NDP 333/338
Liberal 333/338
Conservative 325/338
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morgieb
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« Reply #474 on: September 03, 2015, 06:18:12 PM »

Who does everyone think will win?
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