Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Vega]

Wow a whole three percent of the population! That's practically a majority!

Good thing I never said that, then. But they are obviously one of (if not the) fastest growing minority in Canada - that's a fact.

[Hash]

Let's cut out this garbage now, please and thank you.

[RogueBeaver]

Justin on small business last night.

[cp]

"Both my wife and I have run small businesses"

Umm, exactly what small business has Harper ever run in his life? He's been a career politician since he was in his 20s. His time at the NCC couldn't count as it was a non-profit.

Either way, voters seem to be quite comfortable with Trudeau's economic policies

[toaster]

Anybody been checking Threehundredeight lately?   Parkdale-High Park going Liberal?  Yeah, not going to happen Eric.  That Trudeau hard on this guy has, though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anybody been checking Threehundredeight lately?   Parkdale-High Park going Liberal?  Yeah, not going to happen Eric.  That Trudeau hard on this guy has, though.

He has Parkdale going Liberal? Jesus. Word to the wise: don't pay attention to him, at all.

[136or142]

Anybody been checking Threehundredeight lately?   Parkdale-High Park going Liberal?  Yeah, not going to happen Eric.  That Trudeau hard on this guy has, though.

He has Parkdale going Liberal? Jesus. Word to the wise: don't pay attention to him, at all.

Probably not, but the last 2 or 3 sub polls of Ontario do show a 5% or so swing from the NDP to the Liberals and the Liberals picking up another 3% or so from the Conservatives. 

My guess is he's just using a computer point system to determine who is likely to win each riding which may be as useful and accurate as the FIFA rankings.

[Boston Bread]

Anybody been checking Threehundredeight lately?   Parkdale-High Park going Liberal?  Yeah, not going to happen Eric.  That Trudeau hard on this guy has, though.

It's more Nanos than Eric. Nanos usually has the NDP extremely low in ON, and they've been releasing polls rapidly as of late.

[MaxQue]

Anybody been checking Threehundredeight lately?   Parkdale-High Park going Liberal?  Yeah, not going to happen Eric.  That Trudeau hard on this guy has, though.

It's more Nanos than Eric. Nanos usually has the NDP extremely low in ON, and they've been releasing polls rapidly as of late.

Nanos has NDP at 17 and Liberals at 43 in Ontario. Once again, his partisan leanings shows up.

[Hatman 🍁]

I see no evidence that the NDP is losing that much support in Toronto. It's probably coming from non traditional NDP areas that were flirting with the idea of supporting the NDP, but are now coming back to the Liberals.

[Holmes]

Nanos is working hard to change the public's perception on the state of the race towards the Liberals. And the more they see that it's Liberals who are ahead in all these polls, they'll strategically change their votes from the NDP to the Libs to dump Harper.

Earl, can we start getting new EKOS polls every 2 days showing the NDP in the lead?

[RogueBeaver]

Ivison says no panic on Team Harper, but Byrne is likely to be sidelined.

[adma]

Yeah, there's something *very* suspiciously push-poll-esque about Nanos these days.  I mean, at this point I'm not exactly getting a heavy-duty vibe a la the 2014 provincial election (i.e. Andrea Horwath's platform pushing a whole lot of urban-progressive voters into the Wynne camp)

[RogueBeaver]

Byrne has been sent back to HQ. I expect we'll get juicier details from Fife in 30 minutes. As for Nanos, all major pollsters are showing notable regional differences.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't fret overmuch about regional breakdowns. They are trash by definition. But I think you should consider (as like citizens and so on) pushing for polls of provinces. Like proper ones.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nanos is working hard to change the public's perception on the state of the race towards the Liberals. And the more they see that it's Liberals who are ahead in all these polls, they'll strategically change their votes from the NDP to the Libs to dump Harper.

Earl, can we start getting new EKOS polls every 2 days showing the NDP in the lead?

How much money do you have?

Don't fret overmuch about regional breakdowns. They are trash by definition. But I think you should consider (as like citizens and so on) pushing for polls of provinces. Like proper ones.

A laughable idea indeed, good sir!

[cp]

Byrne has been sent back to HQ. I expect we'll get juicier details from Fife in 30 minutes. As for Nanos, all major pollsters are showing notable regional differences.

Out of curiosity, what's the record for this sort of shake-up actually working? Are there more examples of a campaign switching managers and then winning compared to ones that did the same and then lost?

Embarrassingly, the only example I can think of is fictional (from the West Wing). For what it's worth that campaign ended up losing.

[lilTommy]

So basically... Forum is garbage? and Nanos is overtly partisan Liberal?

[RogueBeaver]

Nanos has 32/30/29.

CP: Managers should never leave HQ anyways. She's not being replaced: Fife reported last night that Harper has full confidence in her.

[RogueBeaver]

Oliphant not a fan of Ontario's sex-ed curriculum. Funny thing is that the provincial riding is Wynne's.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nanos has 32/30/29.

It begins. *sigh*

[DL]

I never believed that the CPC would ever fall to 25/26% - there has never been an election in Canadian history where the conservatives (ie: PC, PC+Reform, PC+Canadian Alliance or CPC) got less than 29%.

I also believe that as long as the NDP dominates Quebec its very very difficult for the Liberals to overtake the NDP in the seat count unless they get a national popular vote lead of over 3%

[Hatman 🍁]

That is unless Quebecers warm up to the Liberals again.  I don't see that happening if the Tories are in third, but if the NDP slips to third, it could happen.

[Hash]

All Canadian pollsters are garbage. Everybody calm down.

[2952-0-0]

The "GTA CPC Candidates Exposed for Unprofessional Conduct" trifecta now complete: http://www.pressprogress.ca/conservative_candidate_shares_advice_on_drunk_women_latent_homosexuals_and_being_a_man