Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Holmes]

All Canadian pollsters are garbage. Everybody calm down.

It is known.

[Hatman 🍁]

Damn this forum for not having a dislike button

[136or142]

All Canadian pollsters are garbage. Everybody calm down.

Except for the firm Hatman works for!

[Lief 🗽]

Even if Canadian pollsters are garbage, their numbers still influence the news narrative, especially when there is a large chunk of promiscuous progressives who just want to vote against Harper and don't care how they do it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Even if Canadian pollsters are garbage, their numbers still influence the news narrative, especially when there is a large chunk of promiscuous progressives who just want to vote against Harper and don't care how they do it.

Yes. Like it or not, people pay attention to the polls, and vote accordingly. Scary as it is, this makes Eric Grenier the most powerful person in the country.

[RogueBeaver]

Harper's bringing in Lynton Crosby. Big thanks to our Aussie Liberal friends.

[Hatman 🍁]

Because an Australian is going to understand our political system. The only Aussie who would be qualified for that post is our very own Smid.

[RogueBeaver]

O'Malley on Mulcair's unconstitutional Senate policy.

Harper to announce refugee expedition measures.

[2952-0-0]

If I were Trudeau's strategist I'd urge him to point this as Harper's campaign being in such dire straits that he can't find any Canadian willing to work for him, and that his campaign chief is "just visiting".

[RogueBeaver]

Would that be the Liberal Party which started the practice of hiring foreign consultants with George Gallup, Oliver Quayle and Lou Harris? That consulted with Team Obama alums and closely paraphrased their slogan? Everyone does it.

[2952-0-0]

It's not more dishonest than the Conservatives' insinuating Ignatieff was "just visiting". And the only reason to do so is to add to the perception (so far entirely driven by a few journalists) that the Conservative campaign is in trouble. If the Conservatives base their campaign on appealing to low-information voters and demoralizing their opponents (precisely Crosby's modus operandi), then so can the other parties. Pleading that "everyone does it" smacks of desperation by this stage.

Remember last week when the NDP basically accused Stephen Harper of personally drowning Alan Kurdi in the Mediterranean? Their claims weren't entirely correct, but by the time the media discovered the nuanced truth, the damage was already done. It simply added to voters' perceptions whether or not it's entirely true.

[cp]

Tory candidates' failures now include racist stereotypes about First Nations peoples

This has graduated from disappointing into sad.

[You kip if you want to...]

Because an Australian is going to understand our political system. The only Aussie who would be qualified for that post is our very own Smid.

Said every UK Labour supporter ever until the exit poll came out.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think you will find Canada to be quite different from Britain, as well.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Canada will respond differently to the dog whistles that Crosbie likes to blow than in Britain though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, Canada is different. It has never elected a left wing government before.

But, seriously, lets not get carried away by cults of roving electoral shakedown artists. The Tories did not win the election here this year because of Crosbie; the Australian Liberals did not win repeated elections under Howard because of Crosbie either. Political journalists are apt to big up the impact of these people because they are generally howlingly ignorant of how elections work and so are delighted to be able to turn around and declare that 'a wizard did it'.

[rob in cal]

I'm wondering what the seat target is for the Tories to have any chance of a minority government.  If they are the biggest party in seat terms but just barely, seems like they would fail, but what if they are pretty close to a seat majority?

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm wondering what the seat target is for the Tories to have any chance of a minority government.  If they are the biggest party in seat terms but just barely, seems like they would fail, but what if they are pretty close to a seat majority?

Your guess is as good as anyone's

[DC Al Fine]

I'm wondering what the seat target is for the Tories to have any chance of a minority government.  If they are the biggest party in seat terms but just barely, seems like they would fail, but what if they are pretty close to a seat majority?

An important factor is how the Liberals and NDP do relative to each other. If Trudeau and Mulcair both think they are the rightful PM there is less of a chance of them working out a coalition/informal arrangement between themselves.

E.g. 130-100-100

is better for Harper than

140-120-70

[RogueBeaver]

I agree with Al. Not a cure-all, just helpful. Indeed none of our notable strategists did anything, well, particularly notable. I guess you could credit Grossart for pioneering the consumerism/institutionalism framing, but that's about it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some more candidate issues, this time with the Liberals: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/09/09/christopher-w-brown-liberal-candidate-tweets_n_8113368.html

I knew I recognized him, I have conversed with him the past on Twitter.  He no longer has an account, which means I have lost a follower

[Vega]

Some more candidate issues, this time with the Liberals: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/09/09/christopher-w-brown-liberal-candidate-tweets_n_8113368.html

I knew I recognized him, I have conversed with him the past on Twitter.  He no longer has an account, which means I have lost a follower

Christ, what a stupid scandal.

[RogueBeaver]

Harper will announce his refugee plan as early as this weekend.

Star on Harper's reboot.

[136or142]

Tory candidates' failures now include racist stereotypes about First Nations peoples

This has graduated from disappointing into sad.

I don't believe I mentioned this here, but I mentioned it to an NDP scientist businessperson I know who ran a couple times for the party who is very concerned about the "Christian right" in the Conservative Party.  I pointed out that Mark MacDonald had a number of associations with right wing Christian organizations but they mostly ended about 15 years or so ago, but that he was better known recently in Nanaimo for writing a number of anti native editorials in the right wing newspaper the Nanaimo Daily News.

This would have been extremely easy for the Conservative Party candidate reviewers to find as when I googled "Mark MacDonald" and "Nanaimo" an article the republished excerpts from some of those editorials was the top link.

So, I assume the Conservative Party was fully aware of these editorials and has no problem with them.  To be sure,  MacDonald has been a somewhat prominent person in the Vancouver Island business community and they may have been willing to overlook these past comments.  It still pretty much confirms the lack of interest the Conservatives have in courting the native community.

To those who would say "Natives don't vote Conservative" I would note Leona Aglukuk as well as, although going back a number of years and not federal, the right wing Yukon Party defeated the NDP government of Piers MacDonald in something of an upset on the strength of getting a surprisingly large share of the Native Vote.

Liberal nominee Joy Davies in South Surrey-White Rock also stepped down today over a couple year old tweets that praised marijuana in ways that aren't backed by evidence and, possibly more importantly for attacking the pharmaceutical associations.  

Davies also had a record of mixed success.  On the upside, she was a well respected retired business owner and executive who had a prominent position in academia as the former Chair of a business department at Vancouver Community College.  On the downside, she handily lost reelection recently in Grand Forks to their city council, and if a marijuana advocate can't get reelected in Grand Forks of all places, what does that say about her?

After retiring from business and being involuntary retired from municipal politics, she became the B.C Director of an advocacy group named something like the Medical Cannabis Partners.  The Federal Liberals support legalization of marijuana, so her background with that isn't a big deal for them, but her position should have raised red flags in that many marijuana promoters seem to also tend to be believers of things about marijuana that don't have much scientific evidence behind them.

I would also add that her comments about the Pharmaceutical associations may reflect the paranoia of marijuana users, but, in addition of not knowing whether Joy Davies herself uses marijuana, it would also reflect stereotypes about marijuana users.

[2952-0-0]

Following the leak from Foreign Affairs, Anonymous is promising something big early next week, but won't reveal whether it's about Baird per se.