Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[cp]

Margaret Wente says Stephen Harper is 'toast'

Despite Wente being a terrible writer, this probably means that Harper has lost the conservative-leaning suburban mom vote (i.e. my mother's)

[DC Al Fine]

Daily Nanos

30.9-30.8-29.9

[Boston Bread]

Forums comes to save the day.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/dc73aa58-fbc8-40e3-9374-ce8b254cc004Federal%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2015%2009%2010)%20Forum%20Research.pdf
36-29-28
At the very least 308's projection should no longer be 90% Nanos.

And the NDP leads in ON for Forum but is a distant third for Nanos? Ok...

[DL]

I'm told that Ekos also has a three way race in Ontario for some reason Nanos is a big outlier in Ontario

[136or142]

I believe I've made this same point here:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/frank-koller/stephen-harper-not-economist_b_8104870.html

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm told that Ekos also has a three way race in Ontario for some reason Nanos is a big outlier in Ontario

The EKOS numbers will be very interesting

[Holmes]

So the NDP is either in first place, second place or third place while taking the EKOS numbers into account. Cool.

[DL]

FWIW - the EKOS IVR poll was in field Sept 2-8 and the Forum one was in field Sept 9-10 - so its possible that there is a trend...

[2952-0-0]

FWIW - the EKOS IVR poll was in field Sept 2-8 and the Forum one was in field Sept 9-10 - so its possible that there is a trend...

But hasn't Forum been ridiculously pro-NDP for months? I don't think the crank calling and cup peeing Tory candidates shifted many peoples' minds.

[Holmes]

Forum just seems to really over-estimate the leading party's margin, no matter who's ahead.

[DL]

Forum just seems to really over-estimate the leading party's margin, no matter who's ahead.

There is some truth to that...but actually up until about three months ago Forum was always had the WORST numbers for the NDP - as recently as January/February they had the NDP as low as 17% nationally when everyone else had the party in the low 20s.

But when you compare Forum's final polls to the actual results in the last series of provincial elections and the Toronto mayoralty - they were pretty damn close and not that far off the average of all the pollsters

[Boston Bread]

So the NDP is either in first place, second place or third place while taking the EKOS numbers into account. Cool.

It's worse than that, actually. In the last 3 polls, all three big parties have placed 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in a poll. So the Liberals are 1st/2nd/3rd, as are the Conservatives.
It's odd that Ekos is the one to show the Conservatives leading, in 2011 they underestimated them and generally had them the lowest.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's a three-way statistical tie, guys. Let's not over analyze every minute percentage point in the data.

[DC Al Fine]

Elizabeth May willing to mediate coalition to topple Stephen Harper

Lol Greens.

[Vega]

The Greens came out with their platform.

... and it actually looks pretty good. They're definitely the leftist party this election.

[MaxQue]

The Greens came out with their platform.

... and it actually looks pretty good. They're definitely the leftist party this election.

Okay. Go away and stop saying nonsense here.

[DC Al Fine]

CBC talking about how the Liberals are running left of the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

CBC talking about how the Liberals are running left of the NDP.

The CBC is not even trying to hide the fact they want to get the Liberals elected. It worked last year in the provincial election.

[jaichind]

Given that for now it seems to be a 3 way tie and it seems the CPC has an advantage in terms of votes-to-seats conversion, it would be funny if the election ends up with CPC coming in a close third in terms of votes but ends up being the largest party in terms of seats.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, who the heck is choosing where riding polls are done? I want to see how Fortin, Rathberger, and Mark are doing, but no all we get is polls of random boring swing ridings.

[DL]

I'm not sure why people keep saying the conservative vote is more efficient. What tends to happen in FPTP systems is that the party with the largest vote share is the most efficient when it comes to seats. In other words there is a bit of a leader bonus. Canada has never had an election result where three parties were within a couple of points of one another so we are in uncharted territory. For all we know know the Conservatives could come in slightly ahead in popular vote and come in third in seats just by being unlucky and losing more close races than they win. We could also see a scenario where the Conservatives have the most "wasted votes" since they tend to pile up 75% majorities in the rural west while the NDP and Liberals tend to win their seats by more modest margins. It's true that redistribution created more seats in BC and Ontario and Alberta, but while the Tories will win most of the new seats in Alberta, in Ontario and BC the new seats are in "swing areas" where right now conservative support is way down.

Anyways I'm just saying sometimes people just keep repeating something as if it was fact when it is just a hypothesis and I don't think we have any way of knowing which party's vote is more "efficient" in the uncharted territory of a three way race. I'd want to see a slew of riding polls to have a better idea.

[Thomas D]

I'm sorry if this is a stupid question. But..

What happens if the parties are all within 5 seats (or so) of each other after the election?

[Vega]

I'm sorry if this is a stupid question. But..

What happens if the parties are all within 5 seats (or so) of each other after the election?

Most likely there would be a lot of talk of a LPC and NDP coalition. I don't think a minority government could be feasible in that situation.

[adma]

Given that for now it seems to be a 3 way tie and it seems the CPC has an advantage in terms of votes-to-seats conversion, it would be funny if the election ends up with CPC coming in a close third in terms of votes but ends up being the largest party in terms of seats.

Maybe the stronger likelihood at this rate is for Libs being #1 in votes but #3 in seats (shades of Cleggmania prognostications in the UK in 2010)

[RogueBeaver]

Nanos: 32/31/31.

This is weird: Mulcair wants his finance minister to be someone who won't win.