Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Vosem]

Because constituency polls of questionable accuracy are fun, Mainstreet Research has released three: in Ajax, Ontario, Conservative incumbent Chris Alexander leads Liberal former MP Mark Holland 33-31; in Spadina--Fort York, Ontario, prominent former NDP MP Olivia Chow leads Liberal incumbent Adam Vaughan 34-30; in Calgary Confederation, Alberta, Liberal candidate Matt Grant leads Conservative former PC MPP Len Webber 33-32.

[Holmes]

Liberals probably re-take Ajax and Conservatives hold on to Calgary Confederation is my guess.

[Hatman 🍁]

Because constituency polls of questionable accuracy are fun, Mainstreet Research has released three: in Ajax, Ontario, Conservative incumbent Chris Alexander leads Liberal former MP Mark Holland 33-31; in Spadina--Fort York, Ontario, prominent former NDP MP Olivia Chow leads Liberal incumbent Adam Vaughan 34-30; in Calgary Confederation, Alberta, Liberal candidate Matt Grant leads Conservative former PC MPP Len Webber 33-32.

All three would be surprises. (Cue Al to warn us about constituency polling in 3...2...1....)

I think the Liberals will win Ajax; and the Tories will win Cgy Confederation. Spadina-Fort York might be that tight actually, but I figured Olivia had more of a lead. Then again previous polls there were done by LOLFORUM.  One thing about that riding is its full of condos, which are less likely to have landlines or at least less likely to have landlines listed by sampling companies, as they are new condos. (this is why polling done in ridings made up of mostly brand new housing should be very suspect as well). Then again, Forum did quite well in recent by-elections in downtown Toronto. But a stop clock is right twice a day.

[lilTommy]

NDP Released their costing sheet... high level but:

*The seven sources of new revenue and their projected value in the first year include:
- An immediate two-percentage-point increase to the corporate income-tax rate ($3.7-billion)
-Tax integrity measures ($500-million)
-End fossil-fuel subsidies ($240-million)
-Close stock-option loopholes ($500-million)
-Repeal income splitting for families with children and reverse the near-doubling of the annual ---contribution limit to Tax Free Savings Accounts ($2.2-billion)
-Reallocate unspent P3 Canada funds ($281-million in year two)
-Other revenue measures ($64.8-million)

*The eight sources of new spending include:
-Jobs and infrastructure – including a cut to the small-business tax rate from 11 to nine per cent ($3-billion)
-Health and seniors care ($355-million)
-Helping families get ahead ($694-million) ($15 Childcare)
-Opportunities for young Canadians ($140-million)
-Safe and secure Canada ($184.5-million)
-Help where it’s needed most ($572-million)
-Stronger communities, stronger democracy ($157.7-million)

BUT this doesn't include the ISIS missing savings ($122M) or that the G20 actually calculated the Subsidies at almost 1B... so 16-17 the NDP gave themselves about a Billion Surplus or so... if the figures hold up

[DC Al Fine]

What are "tax integrity measures"?

[MaxQue]

What are "tax integrity measures"?

Mainly, changes to the "Canadian-Controlled Private Corporation" status, which is currently used by some wealthy individuals to split revenue and pay less taxes. They say it allows to evade 500 millions from taxation. Also, more money for CRA to fight tax evasion (they say than every dollar invested to fighting tax evasion generates 4 dollars in taxes) and other measures, including passing C-621.

C-621 (An Act to amend the Income Tax Act (economic substance)). It's a bill saying than the economic substance of a transaction must be considered by the minister and the Courts to determine if that transaction is a "avoidance transaction" and creating a presumption than an "avoidance transaction" with no economic substance violates the law.

Make no sense to me, but economics/accounting isn't my field of work, probably says more to you.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Wait, what happened to cap and trade? Is it not part of the "fiscal" plan? It would raise revenue. Surely they're not dropping it; it was one of Mulcair's main themes in the leadership race.

[MaxQue]

Wait, what happened to cap and trade? Is it not part of the "fiscal" plan? It would raise revenue. Surely they're not dropping it; it was one of Mulcair's main themes in the leadership race.

When asked, the party said than all the program isn't announced yet.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Wait, what happened to cap and trade? Is it not part of the "fiscal" plan? It would raise revenue. Surely they're not dropping it; it was one of Mulcair's main themes in the leadership race.

When asked, the party said than all the program isn't announced yet.

OK.

[Vosem]

Dogwood Initiative is out with some more fun (*dubious) constituency-level polling -- this time from British Columbia!

In Courtenay-Alberni, the NDP narrowly leads the Conservatives, 30-25.
In Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, the NDP is far ahead of the Conservatives, 31-16.
In Burnaby-North Seymour, the NDP narrowly leads the Conservatives, 28-25.
In Vancouver South, the Liberals lead the Conservatives, 29-20.
In North Vancouver, the Liberals lead the Conservatives, 33-25.
In South Okanagan-West Kootenay, the NDP leads the Conservatives, 31-24.
In West Vancouver..., the Liberals narrowly lead the Conservatives and NDP in a three-way race, 28-25-18.

Some notes:
- More than 10% separates first from third in every riding but West Vancouver. This suggests that some may be voting tactically.
- Although the Greens have star candidates in North Vancouver and West Vancouver, they are not doing particularly well there, at 9-10%. Their best riding of these 7, far and away, is Esquimalt..., where they are at 15% and within the margin of error for second place.
- There is still plenty of time for someone to break out. There are >20% undecided in every riding but West Vancouver..., which is at 18%.

[lilTommy]

Soo.. two Polls, two different leading parties...

Forum:
CPC - 32%
NDP - 30%
LPC -  28%
http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/09/17/conservatives-take-narrow-lead-new-poll-shows.html

Environics
NDP - 34%
LPC - 29%
CPC - 26%
http://assets.nationalnewswatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/poll-sept.-17.pdf

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is this going to be one of those Canadian elections that out Canadian elections itself?

[Hatman 🍁]

Soo.. two Polls, two different leading parties...

Forum:
CPC - 32%
NDP - 30%
LPC -  28%
http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/09/17/conservatives-take-narrow-lead-new-poll-shows.html

Environics
NDP - 34%
LPC - 29%
CPC - 26%
http://assets.nationalnewswatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/poll-sept.-17.pdf

lol

[lilTommy]

... speaking of Riding level polling to be taking with a grain of sail, CROP has the NDP leading... Papineau
NDP - 46%
LPC - 35%
BQ - 10%
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/trudeau-in-trouble-in-papineau-riding-poll-1.2568576?hootPostID=7b14fa55793444883a6592832cbc868a

[Njall]

... speaking of Riding level polling to be taking with a grain of sail, CROP has the NDP leading... Papineau
NDP - 46%
LPC - 35%
BQ - 10%
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/trudeau-in-trouble-in-papineau-riding-poll-1.2568576?hootPostID=7b14fa55793444883a6592832cbc868a

It should be noted that that poll was commissioned by the NDP.

[136or142]

Dogwood Initiative is out with some more fun (*dubious) constituency-level polling -- this time from British Columbia!

In Courtenay-Alberni, the NDP narrowly leads the Conservatives, 30-25.
In Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, the NDP is far ahead of the Conservatives, 31-16.
In Burnaby-North Seymour, the NDP narrowly leads the Conservatives, 28-25.
In Vancouver South, the Liberals lead the Conservatives, 29-20.
In North Vancouver, the Liberals lead the Conservatives, 33-25.
In South Okanagan-West Kootenay, the NDP leads the Conservatives, 31-24.
In West Vancouver..., the Liberals narrowly lead the Conservatives and NDP in a three-way race, 28-25-18.

Some notes:
- More than 10% separates first from third in every riding but West Vancouver. This suggests that some may be voting tactically.
- Although the Greens have star candidates in North Vancouver and West Vancouver, they are not doing particularly well there, at 9-10%. Their best riding of these 7, far and away, is Esquimalt..., where they are at 15% and within the margin of error for second place.
- There is still plenty of time for someone to break out. There are >20% undecided in every riding but West Vancouver..., which is at 18%.

Dogwood Initiative may have paid for the poll, but it was done by Insights West which is a credible firm.

[136or142]

Sleazy Conservative mailer.  Trying to frighten Canadians.  Could they be any more disgusting?

[Hatman 🍁]

... speaking of Riding level polling to be taking with a grain of sail, CROP has the NDP leading... Papineau
NDP - 46%
LPC - 35%
BQ - 10%
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/trudeau-in-trouble-in-papineau-riding-poll-1.2568576?hootPostID=7b14fa55793444883a6592832cbc868a

Entirely plausible result

[2952-0-0]

In an otherwise forgettable (aside from the malfunctioning timer) debate, Harper mentioned "old-stock Canadians".

For some reason I thought of Tim Hudak's comments about foreign workers during the 2011 Ontario election. Already, Justin's people are busy.

[andrew_c]

... speaking of Riding level polling to be taking with a grain of sail, CROP has the NDP leading... Papineau
NDP - 46%
LPC - 35%
BQ - 10%
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/trudeau-in-trouble-in-papineau-riding-poll-1.2568576?hootPostID=7b14fa55793444883a6592832cbc868a

Junk poll!

[Zanas]

... speaking of Riding level polling to be taking with a grain of sail, CROP has the NDP leading... Papineau
NDP - 46%
LPC - 35%
BQ - 10%
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/trudeau-in-trouble-in-papineau-riding-poll-1.2568576?hootPostID=7b14fa55793444883a6592832cbc868a

Junk poll!

I know it's a thing on this forum, but you don't accomplish much except annoying everyone by just shouting that. Do that on the US 2016 election boards, not here. You could at least have pointed out that the poll had a sample of only 375, which sets the MoE above 5%, which indeed makes it a rather dubious poll.

[DL]

Actually a sample size of 375 is quite decent for a riding poll and if the NDP has an 11 point lead and the margin of error is 5.0 points that means the NDP lead is OUTSIDE the margin of error. In any case the point is not that Trudeau will necessarily lose but that he could lose. He needs to spend more time knocking on doors in his own riding and less time gallivanting around the country

[Hatman 🍁]

Some more riding polls (by lolForum):

University-Rosedale:
NDP: 46
Lib: 32
Cons: 17
Grn: 5

(plausible, but it's likely much closer)

Toronto Centre:
NDP: 41
Lib: 40
Cons: 14
Grn: 4

(this was always going to be close)

Ajax:
Liberal: 46
Cons: 35
NDP: 17
Grn: 2

(This contradicts another company's poll, but these numbers are probably closer to reality)

[lilTommy]

The Globe and Mail and the National Post have both said Mulcair was the Winner in last nights debate:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/harper-a-bystander-as-trudeau-mulcair-face-off/article26417895/

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-a-little-angry-tom-goes-a-long-way-as-mulcair-outpoints-rivals

... both centre-right, right leaning papers. The Star I can't see anything from them that outright states JT won, that's something I assume is coming.

[Hatman 🍁]

Who do you think the newspapers will endorse? I bet the Star endorses the Liberals and everyone else will endorse the Tories. While no one pays attention to these kinds of things, even a 1% boost in the polls could be the difference in this election.