Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)
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  Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)
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Author Topic: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)  (Read 233052 times)
136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #700 on: September 19, 2015, 02:10:02 AM »

A result that close probably means another election very soon again.
Doubt it. No one wants to be seen as responsible for forcing another election. At this occasion the probable outcome will be a coalition, where both the Liberals and NDP do all they could to be seen as equals. It would last its full term, because the only thing keeping it together will be hatred of you-know-who.

And the fact that the NDP under Mulcair and the Liberals under Trudeau are in close agreement on probably 90% of the issues.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #701 on: September 19, 2015, 02:13:58 AM »

There's no love or trust between Mulcair and Trudeau. It would be too fragile of a coalition.

There isn't much of a history of coalitions in Canada and I'm not familiar with much of the rest of the world in that regard, but the closest comparison would probably be Finance Ministers and Premiers or Prime Ministers who did not get along, but worked together for many years.

The most famous would be Paul Martin and Jean Chretien. Yes, they eventually split, and I don't know if they didn't get along initially, but they worked together very well for a fair number of years after they had a major falling out.

Same thing with Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in the U.K.

A not quite exact quote from Yes, Minister  "The official opposition are your official enemies, your real enemies are your cabinet rivals... errr colleagues."

Nearly all politicians, especially those in power, have no problem putting aside personal differences for long periods of time.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #702 on: September 19, 2015, 06:38:29 AM »

The problem with the stable government thesis is that it assumes there is at least one subordinate member. Junior coalition partners know they're... well junior. I have a harder time imagining a stable government forming so long as each progressive leader thinks he is the rightful Prime Minister, especially when winning power on their own is just a confidence vote away.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #703 on: September 19, 2015, 06:42:09 AM »

As an aside, am I the only one who thinks the old stock Canadians remarks wasn't Crosby's? CBC seems to think he's been given absolute authority over the Tory campaign.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #704 on: September 19, 2015, 06:44:21 AM »
« Edited: September 19, 2015, 06:45:53 AM by DC Al Fine »


They're at what, 15% in the polls? At this point, what do they have to lose, by going full on FN?

EDIT: And the CBC comments about the ad are surprisingly positive Tongue
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #705 on: September 19, 2015, 07:02:45 AM »

If both opposition parties get over 100 seats, there is probably no way a coallition/partnership between the two lasts a full term. If we're lucky, it would last three years. Of course there is a chance the junior partner gets LibDemed, and tank in the polls, and may wait a full four years in fear of getting destroyed in the next election.

In all likelihood we'd be heading back to the polls in a year or year and a half.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #706 on: September 19, 2015, 07:07:01 AM »


Tender Branson's new favorite party!
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #707 on: September 19, 2015, 08:32:32 AM »
« Edited: September 19, 2015, 09:43:27 AM by RogueBeaver »

Mulcair's colleagues recall him advocating privatizing Mont Orford. At any rate, Mulcair and Charest could not work together: Orford was just the trigger. The real story is him allegedly being so abrasive towards Monique Gagnon-Tremblay (then the regional minister) in a committee meeting that she burst into tears and Charest fired him. 3 ex-ministers speak on the record, plus Charest himself is quoted. Mulcair does not deny that part of the story.

BC riding profiles.
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2952-0-0
exnaderite
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« Reply #708 on: September 19, 2015, 10:10:18 AM »

There's no love or trust between Mulcair and Trudeau. It would be too fragile of a coalition.
There was even less love or trust between Stalin and Churchill/FDR.

Yes, probably a Godwin, but the point stands.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #709 on: September 19, 2015, 11:13:50 AM »

There's no love or trust between Mulcair and Trudeau. It would be too fragile of a coalition.
There was even less love or trust between Stalin and Churchill/FDR.

Yes, probably a Godwin, but the point stands.

Even your Godwin example doesn't point to a stable coalition. It took what, two years for the USA/USSR to fall out after their mutual enemy was defeated?
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adma
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« Reply #710 on: September 19, 2015, 11:49:22 AM »

If we're to rely on the current Nanos tracking poll as a foretelling of anything--Lib 30.8 (-0.2), Con 30.4 (+1.3), NDP 28.9 (2.4)--then Mulcair's the big loser of the debate.  But I won't come to such conclusions now.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #711 on: September 19, 2015, 01:10:51 PM »

There's no love or trust between Mulcair and Trudeau. It would be too fragile of a coalition.
There was even less love or trust between Stalin and Churchill/FDR.

Yes, probably a Godwin, but the point stands.

Even your Godwin example doesn't point to a stable coalition. It took what, two years for the USA/USSR to fall out after their mutual enemy was defeated?
And even during the war, they were understood to be vying for the supremacy of Europe.

The pundits will talk about how the coalition will fall apart soon, but I think it will last the full term if for no reason than their common loathing of the former government. The will have introduced some form of electoral reform. Then in 2019, they campaign separately, slamming each other for the coalition's unpopular decisions. Possible that the Conservative Party will have rebuilt itself into a force the Liberals could work with, after that election.
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Vosem
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« Reply #712 on: September 19, 2015, 01:23:23 PM »

The problem with a coalition is that examples from around the world consistently show that the junior partner suffers in a post-coalition election, making it disadvantageous to enter a coalition as the junior partner. Either party might, if there is sufficient public pressure for it to happen (which seems doubtful in Canada, a country without much history of coalitions), but then they'll be trying to bring the government down as quickly as possible. Sure, if the numbers are 115Con-113NDP-109Lib, I doubt the Cons will form government, but I do think a Con minority where the Cons clearly take first place in seats and votes would continue to govern Canada. Probably without Harper, though. The only scenario in which Harper sticks around for the next election is a 1979/1980 scenario where the next election is called so fast there isn't time for the Conservatives to pick a new leader (also a realistic possibility, imho).
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DL
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« Reply #713 on: September 19, 2015, 01:48:02 PM »

If we're to rely on the current Nanos tracking poll as a foretelling of anything--Lib 30.8 (-0.2), Con 30.4 (+1.3), NDP 28.9 (2.4)--then Mulcair's the big loser of the debate.  But I won't come to such conclusions now.

The debate would have nothing to do with that. Because the Globe debate was only carried on Youtube and on the Parliamentary channel - it is estimated that it was watched by a grand total of 60,000 people (that is far less than 1% of the electorate!)
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adma
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« Reply #714 on: September 19, 2015, 02:18:42 PM »

Though if we're still deadlocked, one dark horse factor which might make a difference is the *French* debate--particularly for whatever credibility it might anoint upon the hitherto given-up-for-dead Justin; maybe not enough to win QC, but enough for a face-saving 1997/2000-Chretien seat total which'd drag Liberal numbers up nationwide.

More critical to Justin than to Mulcair, who's basically maxed out in QC with thus-far limited evidence of buoyance-in-tandem elsewhere.  (In a way, it's like the Duceppe-era Bloc all over again, which at its full power still fell short of some of the bolder predictions out there: that they'd defeat Paul Martin in LaSalle-Emard, et al)
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« Reply #715 on: September 19, 2015, 03:08:20 PM »

Has such a tie ever occurred provincially?
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Lotuslander
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« Reply #716 on: September 19, 2015, 03:17:33 PM »
« Edited: September 19, 2015, 03:19:11 PM by Lotuslander »

If we're to rely on the current Nanos tracking poll as a foretelling of anything--Lib 30.8 (-0.2), Con 30.4 (+1.3), NDP 28.9 (2.4)--then Mulcair's the big loser of the debate.  But I won't come to such conclusions now.

More important to look at today's Nanos Best PM numbers...

Harper 29.7% (-0.4%)
Mulcair 26.3% (-2.3%)
Trudeau 25.5% (+0.1%)

Mulcair took the biggest hit after Nanos' 1st overnights.

PS. While most Canadians did not view debate, numerous clips were played over and over and over again on the various news networks across Canada. And print media carried considerable coverage as well.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #717 on: September 19, 2015, 04:18:31 PM »

Or it's just a bad day sample. Remember polls are within error margin 19 times out of 20.

It might be the 20th poll. Or not. We'll see in a few days.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #718 on: September 19, 2015, 04:50:43 PM »

If we're to rely on the current Nanos tracking poll as a foretelling of anything--Lib 30.8 (-0.2), Con 30.4 (+1.3), NDP 28.9 (2.4)--then Mulcair's the big loser of the debate.  But I won't come to such conclusions now.

Hasn't Nanos always had a pro Liberal anti NDP bias to their polls at least until election day?
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DL
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« Reply #719 on: September 19, 2015, 09:33:04 PM »


PS. While most Canadians did not view debate, numerous clips were played over and over and over again on the various news networks across Canada. And print media carried considerable coverage as well.

Except that most of the analysis and commentary after the debate was that Trudeau bombed and looked like a high school debater and that Mulcair did very well. So anyone who did not actually see the debate and just followed the coverage of it would be left with that impression.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #720 on: September 20, 2015, 06:41:48 AM »

In true journalist fashion CBC completely fails at election analysis. They have a piece about "where your vote counts most in Toronto" and then proceed to talk about a bunch of close races from 2011... you know, the seats the Tories barely won that will be easy Liberal gains this time. Roll Eyes

If they really want interesting races in Toronto, there's Eglinton-Lawrence, Ajax, and some of the Brampton ridings, which will actually be close on election day Tongue
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #721 on: September 20, 2015, 06:47:41 AM »

Jim Pankiw is leading a fringe party called Canada Party.

IIRC they are one of the many fringe parties that emerged out of the death of Social Credit.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #722 on: September 20, 2015, 07:22:42 AM »

In true journalist fashion CBC completely fails at election analysis. They have a piece about "where your vote counts most in Toronto" and then proceed to talk about a bunch of close races from 2011... you know, the seats the Tories barely won that will be easy Liberal gains this time. Roll Eyes

If they really want interesting races in Toronto, there's Eglinton-Lawrence, Ajax, and some of the Brampton ridings, which will actually be close on election day Tongue

They failed as soon as they chose Eric Grenier to work for them. It's been all down hill since.
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adma
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« Reply #723 on: September 20, 2015, 01:29:49 PM »

Jim Pankiw is leading a fringe party called Canada Party.

IIRC they are one of the many fringe parties that emerged out of the death of Social Credit.

I wouldn't mind the Pankiw-led Canada Party going nationwide, as a repository for Ford Nation trolls and the like...
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #724 on: September 20, 2015, 06:51:22 PM »

In which the Toronto Star doesn't get that the polling swings have all been within the margin of error.

Seriously, the Tories were at 30% on day one. They are at 30% now. There is no massive comeback going on. Tongue
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